14-12-2004 03:58									#211
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus Interesting to see UnO walk in and then bite his tongue. Only to relax and take a friendly pop at us.

He knows we can handle it... it was friendly for sure, which Lego might not interpret like that

DeepO

	14-12-2004 04:02									#212
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It is a hard fall, yes. Ideally, it would have happened in 2 or 3 turns. Or, like it was supposed to happen: we take out the FP in the first turn, but lose most of our invasion force doing so. Leaving Lego badly damaged, and us without an army, needing to rebuild. We can't help it that where we expected moderate resistance in all cities, Lego decides to bet everything on a single horse.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 06:56									#213
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I think we can expect some mischief from UnO somewhere along the line though. In case the sparks do fly, though we should stay in line, hold fire and not get involved. That includes not criticising our allies if they overstep the mark. If we want to post something in response put it here first to see if the team agrees, then DeepO can deliver as per policy. I know this denies us our individual freedom and spontanaity, but most quick emotional posts get regretted and I think that maintaining discipline is for the best in this matter.

What we could do, do demonstrate that we are not gloating beyond reasonable celebration, is to open a tribute thread to Fort Stanwick. Eulogies, a poem perhaps - praising Lego's strategy and making them feel like heroes in a great story, not victims of game mechanics.

Also, there's Arrian's idea of a radical Stormian paper attacking the GS Govt for warcrimes. That should be appreciated.

Apart from wanting to be nice to the Legonians, we can play to the gallery in this way - and especially to Vox. Let GoW do the trash-talking while we remain statesman-like and dignified. It might help us in a vote.

	14-12-2004 07:08									#214
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a tribute thread for Stanwix is a nice idea... however, would it be appreciated right now? If we do that in let's say a week or so, wouldn't that make more sense? MZ has been doing his version of it, and it didn't exactly feel good for the Legonians.

Also note, that except ZargonX, no Lego has responded to any post for over a day now. I very much doubt that Zargon is the voice of Lego... something is going on in their forum.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 07:10									#215
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And the moment UnO posts his story, I hope everyone will see it as fun. With RP, I understand there was a specific agreement that all he posted was run by them first of all. I can't imagine that with Lego he wouldn't do the same. MWIA loved the quest...

DeepO

	14-12-2004 07:12									#216
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel Added to the repertoire, not that I could ever use it against the AI

That's right. Next time we foil a 50 Marine attack against the AI by blockading a harbour and closing a fork, so the AI lands a combat settler plus infantry support to open a harbour and let the tanks in, we know what to do. Plonk a city down next to it!!

Got that, Soren? Writing this down reminds me why Civ vs Humans is such another dimension

	14-12-2004 07:13									#217
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quote: Originally posted by DeepO a tribute thread for Stanwix is a nice idea... however, would it be appreciated right now? If we do that in let's say a week or so, wouldn't that make more sense? DeepO

Yes, I wasn't thinking immediately. Let the war finish and the dust settle. btw, do we know where Lego's transports are?

	14-12-2004 07:15									#218
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus Got that, Soren? Writing this down reminds me why Civ vs Humans is such another dimension

And still we expect AI behaviour from humans, and even count on it. I still can't fathom Lego not seeing we have an active chain going, we even specifically asked for chaining to be in the rules.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 07:16									#219
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus Yes, I wasn't thinking immediately. Let the war finish and the dust settle. btw, do we know where Lego's transports are?

Nope. Best guesses so far are the (partly) inland sea, and down South.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 07:43									#220
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Chances of having preloaded units far south are narrow, but they might just fancy sending out something to damage us at home - or a survvor settler. I doubt it though, and unless Beta and Rhothy are doing an elaborate double-act, Vox are unlikely to risk attacking us or RP. Rhothy seems more peaceful than Beta, but who knows? If they know Estonia is empty ... A spy would be nice, but we don't want to plant one while on a charm offensive. MZ didn't answer the question of whether they got a spy-failed message from out attempt. I'm not surprised he didn't answer it.

Is it worth setting a scenario up in hot-seat to test the Spy failed mechanics - and the UN mechanics come to that?

	14-12-2004 07:47									#221
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I don't think the game has any warning for that. The real bad news is GoW now knows we have little chance to plant one real soon. They know we don't have one, in case they did not already.

Last edited by vmxa1 on 14-12-2004 at 07:57

	14-12-2004 07:52									#222
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus MZ didn't answer the question of whether they got a spy-failed message from out attempt. I'm not surprised he didn't answer it. Is it worth setting a scenario up in hot-seat to test the Spy failed mechanics - and the UN mechanics come to that?

MZ has avoided a couple of our more sensitive questions... I can't say I blame him. We asked him if he had marines left (it was genuinely important to us, before investigating Stanwix). We asked him if he still had cavs. And still, he jumped at the opportunity of us planting a spy with them

I would be most interested in knowing whether one can see if another tries to plant a spy. I suspect you don't see it... Lego has a spy with us, were they successful in their first attempt? Don't you think that both Vox and ND also have spy in EotS?

Can you make a scenario to play out in hot-seat? It would be a waste to play for a couple of days just to find this out...

DeepO

	14-12-2004 07:53									#223
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quote: Originally posted by vmxa1 I don't think the game has any warning for that. The real bad news is GoW now knows we have little chance to plant one real soon. They know we done have one, in case they did not already.

Bah... next turn, the chances of planting a spy in GoW would be the same as planting one in Lego the turn after getting exposed. We succeeded there too

(I know, alva... I talked about independent chances only a couple of days ago )

DeepO

	14-12-2004 07:59									#224
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I thought they made it so you can't do it for 5 turns? Was that C3C or was that just some espionage stuff? I guess there is another choice, I could have a fuzzy memory.

	14-12-2004 08:12									#225
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one second, I'll find that thread again I've been using.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 08:16									#226
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Krill gave this one a couple of turns ago:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=97042

Basically, without exposure or a failed attempt, you get 50% success. If you fail or get exposed, you are flagged and can't try again. That chance deminishes by 30% each turn you wait (so in total, 15% chance the first turn after exposure, something like 25% second, 33% the third, etc.). Each time you fail, you get flagged again, and have to start over.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 08:21									#227
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Sounds about right, that is where I got the 5 turns from. Ok off to squeeze in some LoD. Trying to get one more character through hell mode.

	14-12-2004 08:41									#228
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5 turns has nothing to do with it, vmxa. it never ends...

these are the numbers
turn 0: exposure
turn 1: (1-.7)*.5 = .15 chance of planting a spy
turn 2: (1-.49)*.5 = .25
turn 3: (1-.34)*.5 = .33
turn 4: (1-.24)*.5 = .38
turn 5: (1-.17)*.5 = .41

turn 10: (1-.03)*.5 = .485

So even after 10 turns, you still have a 1.5% smaller chance of succeeding in planting a spy.

We were extremely lucky with that 2nd spy in Lego. And we might have to wait a bit before planting another one in GoW has a good chance of success.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 08:54									#229
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I didn't know that!...

	14-12-2004 09:04									#230
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I'm supposed to be sleeping now, but just a quick response to sleepy

I thought we had a 30% chance to plant the second spy in Lego... after wards it was only 15%. Okay, we didn't succeed with GoW, but still, that was some amazing luck we had there. first spy in Lego succeeds (50%), afterwards the seoncd too (15%)... nice!

I didn't realize just how good the RNGgods were to us until I checked it this turn for GoW. (after our naval massacre, I didn't complain, though)

DeepO

	14-12-2004 19:58									#231
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Come to think of this, I'd like us to try to plant a spy again in GoW in 3 or 4 turns, certainly if it doesn't give any messages in-game if we fail.

And we might want to try with Vox immediately, as with ND too.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 19:59									#232
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To get this thread a bit more on topic (we're drifting), Lego doesn't post for a whole day, and all of a sudden 2 posts in half an hour, both not from Zargon? They are most definately also coordinating public appearances.

DeepO

	14-12-2004 20:01									#233
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(BTW, I think I might have saved MZ's butt... he didn't exactly saw it like I let the rest believe. I don't know if Lego buys it or not, but at least it's an attempt to get the mood friendlier)

DeepO

	15-12-2004 01:01									#234
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That was good DeeoO, Friendly OT chat is good for now. People can post safely on that. Hopefully the Vox players will say something. Note also MZ's comment on the subject.

	15-12-2004 01:52									#235
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The best way is for is to just not post in the public thread right now. I am not sure why MZ feels he needs to post there, rather than finish the turn anyway.

Anything is possible amunition for Lego players, so why even get involved?

	15-12-2004 02:09									#236
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You might be right, vmxa. Although the last few posts were either damage control, or had nothing to do with the war, it is probably best to just shut up.

I know one thing: we are not going to post any screenshots soon. Even if these are the dryest information possible, they will spark too much controversy

DeepO

	15-12-2004 02:24									#237
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Personally I'm disappointed that the last story of MZ's was pulled. That 'radio broadcast' was well written and Zargon did not have the right to demand it be censored.

A sad day for a 'Democracy' game. A good day for 'compassionate jackbootism'.

	15-12-2004 02:39									#238
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CH, I know how you feel. But if I was MZ, I would have waited a couple of days, e.g. until the GoW turn was played.

DeepO

	15-12-2004 04:21									#239
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CH being right is not allows a good reason to act. Some times relinqishing your right is just the easiest way to act.

If I was Lego, I would not be bothered by anything said so far, but I am not and I will err on the side of caution.

I am at the point where I just do not need the grief. Correcting peoples points can be very taxing (especially if they are correct).

	15-12-2004 04:50									#240
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I don't think there's anything that can be said right now that will go over well.