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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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Great recap 
So, in percentage probaility terms, the likelihood of popping a negative event are:
Unity rover, Pod on fungus: 32% (20% ignoring fungal bloom)
Unity foil, Pod on fungus: 24%
Unity foil, Pod in trench: 40%
Gun foil, Pod on fungus: 28%
(all slightly higher as we already have everyone's commlink)
Based on these, I say we go for the Warwag-Shinsengumi tagteam podpop and the Invincible pop, but do nothing with the Pegasus (esp as there's a longstrider on board - and as well, it looks like Hunter will be able to break out of the fungus and head for a rendezvous next turn, although the pegasusnneds to empty its probe cargo before podpopping in case we do get an AA or a Unity Rover).
And tactically, we should tagteam pop with the Elite unit first, so that if a mindworm emerges, the Commando unit can kill it perhaps getting a morale upgrade to Elite in the process
Re: the Hermes - while the odds of a negative pop are the lowest, it depends on whether we think that's expendible with the imminency of cruiser transports. While popping an AA would be fabulous (taking pressure off our crawlers for the MCC build) it'd also be useful for taking a probe down to La-La Land for either infiltration or techsteal (or both, with 2 probes). And if it does transport the probes, it could continue and maybe extricate R-112 from its current situation. So I'd be in favor of not popping with the trannies for the time being (or trancing them, which, together with their being "disciplined" should ensure a survival, although damaging)
(As an aside, could we use this current bastardized save as a simulator to redo the odds on the four podpops we're contemplating?)
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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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Here are the half-time results (25 iterations):
Unity rover, Pod on fungus
monolith: 6
native: 3
bloom: 1
artifact: 3
materials: 6
earthquake:3
Dimensional rift: 3
25
Unity foil, Pod on fungus
native: 3
materials: 3
kelp: 4
sonar: 1
artifact: 3
75c: 1
25c: 2
tech: 1
Tidal wave: 2
Unity foil: 1
Battle Ogre: 1
Unity Rover: 3
25
Unity foil, Pod in trench (1 probe team on board)
native: 5
artifact: 5
sonar: 3
materials: 4
75c: 1
50c: 1
25c: 1
Unity rover: 2
tidal wave: 2
Unity foil: 1
25
Gun foil, Pod on fungus
native: 4
kelp: 4
sonar: 6
100c: 1
75c: 1
50c: 1
25c: 1
tech: 2
tidal wave: 4
cloned gunfoil: 1
25
Noteworthy - in all instances of a naval vessel popping an IoD, the vessel was lost in the resulting battle.
Preliminary indications show that there is little danger in doing the tagteam podpop - the second rover in all instances can destroy either the resulting mindworm or sporelauncher, or even the fungal tower (1 instance)
Likewise, the Hermes popping the pod in teh fungus seems to have an 88% probability of producing something decent (even the tidal wave event gives us more of Zak's map), so I'd be in favor of that pop (but change Vladivostok's build to something worthwhile)
Pegasus I'm not sure about. If we drop off the probeteam first, then pop the pod, I'd have less objection, but it's still a 20% chance we'll lose Pegasus. That'll delay any Morgan infiltration for ten or so turns until we get another trannie (prolly a cruiser one) built. But with a 20% AA probability, a 16% facilities completion, and even an 8% Unity Rover are tempting odds, aren't they?
I'd give the podpop a miss with the Invincible. There's a 72 % probability that the pop won't help us (kelp, tidal, sonar, IoD's that destroy us ..............) so I'd just keep going south down the coastline with it.
G.
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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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Well, here is the second batch (in bold italics alongside the first results to show the differences, then the total for all 50 iterations)
Second batch I put a navy seals in the build at RG and Vlad, a Rec Commons at SectorCraterwest, and an Impact Speeder at Minas Tirith. Completions were up slightly (so I don't know if the act of putting something different in the build orders triggers a more sympathetic result from a podpop):
Unity rover, Pod on fungus (Warwag & Shinsengumi)
monolith:..... 6 ..... 3 ..... 9
native: .....3 ..........4 ..... 7
bloom:.... 1..........3 ..... 4
artifact:.... 3........2 ..... 5
materials: 6..........4 .....10
earthquake:....3.......2 ..... 5
Dimensional rift:.. 3...0.....3
Unity Foil: ....0........1 ..... 1
Unity Rover: ...0........1 ..... 1
Power pod: ..0........2 ..... 2
50ec's: ....0...............1 .........1
75 rc's: ...0............1 ..... 1
Forest: ...0..........1 ..... 1
Unity foil, Pod on fungus{Hermes)
native: ...3..........8 ..... 11
materials: ...3..........4 ..... 7
kelp:... 4..........4 ..... 8
sonar: ...1..........3 ..... 4
artifact: ...3..........1 ..... 4
75c: .....1..........0 ..... 1
25c: .....2..........0 ..... 2
tech: .....1..........0 ..... 1
Tidal wave:... 2.......0 ..... 2
Unity foil: ..1..........1 ..... 2
Battle Ogre: ..1..........1 ..... 2
Unity Rover: ..3.......2 .....5
50 ec's: 0..........1 ..1
Unity foil, Pod in trench (1 probe team on board for ist batch, dropped off for second - Pegasus)
native: 5..........7 ..... 12
artifact: 5..........1 ..... 6
sonar: 3..........4 ..... 7
materials: 4..........5 ..... 9
75c: 1..........0 ..... 1
50c: 1..........0 ..... 1
25c: 1..........3 ..... 4
Unity rover: 2..........1 ..... 3
tidal wave: 2..........0 ..... 2
Unity foil: 1..........3 ..... 4
Ogre: 0..........1 ..... 1
Gun foil, Pod on fungus (Invincible)
native: 4..........6 ..... 10
kelp: 4..........3 ..... 7
sonar: 6..........3 ..... 9
100c: 1..........2 ..... 3
75c: 1..........0 ..... 1
50c: 1..........0 ..... 1
25c: 1..........3 ..... 4
tech: 2..........2 ..... 4
tidal wave: 4..........4 ..... 8
cloned gunfoil: 1..........0 ..... 1
materials: 0..........2 ..... 2
Analysis to follow
Last edited by Googlie on 07-11-2004 at 10:48
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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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Proposed orders
Build order changes pre pod-popping
Rio Grande and Vladivostok - to Navy Seals
Sector Craterwest - to a Rec Commons
(To be changed back following unsuccessful podpops)
Unit moves
Warwag (Elite rover): - pops pod on 54:8
Shinsengumi (Commando Rover): - on standby to deal with any resulting native life
SNC Pegasus: - NE x 1 and drop off probe team then W x 1 and NW x 1 to pop the pod there
SNCHermes: - N x 1 to pop the pod in the fungus
SCC Invincible: - navigates round the pod to the bay southeast of its current position
SCC Hunter:- E x 2 into the fungus
CRV-112: - remains on the monolith until the Gaian mindworm clears the way for egress
Olympus Academy's crawler N x 1 to commence crawling the mine there. Worker reassigned to the 1-1-1 tile currently being forested by Tomcat-3. Build commences on another crawler (3 turns)
All Tomcats are in the middle of executing orders, so no fresh ones needed
Last edited by Googlie on 08-11-2004 at 08:52
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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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2146 Midturn Report
Well, there's good news and "not so good" news ('tho not really bad news)
Not so good first:
Rio Grande is no longer a port. Warwag popped an earthquake that filled in that little bay (and also, in the doing, stranded Zak's trannie with a scout in it - scout is now eyeballing Shinsengumi (which I moved back towards Rio Grande to put a new seedpod between it and the Uni scout, and the corollary good news is that it can no loger sail to Morgan and make contact  )
Hermes popped a tidal wave that positioned it off Zak's coastline to the east
Now the good news:
Trade with Angels executed - they now have GS and we have Biogenetics
13 ec's transferred from Morgan to us
Rio Grande is still on the river, but it's doubled back on itself irrigating the Messenian Plains somewhat (but ETA for Doc Initiative is still 2148)
Pegasus dropped off its probe team and popped a Unity Rover
Hermes still had its full 3 movement points left, si I set it off for Vladivostok, but after 1 it encountered another seedpod. Figuring we were already ahead, and could afford to risk losing it, I popped that pod - and we got a facs completion of Vlad's trance armored supply crawler!!
Hunter moved west and got ensnared in the fungus
Invincible moved south along the Gaian coastline
Longstrider at SC3 moved to the coast to join his buddy and be picked up when Pegasus drops off the Unity Rover
Crawler at OA moved onto mine and commenced crawling. Worker re-allocated as per orders. Assembling of another crawler commenced
Build orders at RG and SC3 returned to original
2146 midturn save attached
 Attachment: acdg3-sparta,2146 midturn.zip
This has been downloaded 1 time(s).
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Maniac
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Gent, Belgium
Jul 1999
time: 06:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Googlie
Rats!! Never thought of putting it on a rover chassis. |
Ah well, something to keep in mind for next time. Imagine: two materials pods for 150-min crawlers, and we've got a secret project for free! 
quote:
(I guess, though, that we now have syntharmor prototyped) |
Which means we can no longer crawler-hurry expensive units and facilities.  All the more reason to go and steal HEC from Lal of course.
quote:
Still in midturn save mode - is there any advantage in rushing any unts?
The former, maybe (for that vaunted "turn advantage" but maybe not the Hoplite and the Crypteia? |
I agree: the former, but not the two others. We'll need to use practically all our money reserves soon to switch to Fundy and upgrade our invasion forces.
Btw, shall we demand Zak that he withdraws his forces? In other words that scout patrol. It has the advantage that the patrol can't pop that unity pod in his turn (which it can do now), giving us another pod next year.
I consider that eartquake a lucky event by the way. Okay, Rio Grande is no longer a port, but it's easy to build another base. And on the positive side, as you say Zak can no longer meet Morgan, and we've got a river running north out of RG, which should speed up colonization of that area a lot.
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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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You might be right (I'll need to scenario-test that) Moot again, though - I opened the turn and called Zak, who withdrew, apologizing for the unintentional transgression. I also rushed the former, as agreed, but left the other 2 as is.
We currently have 165 ec's in the kitty, and will get another 26 in the 2 years to 2148 (assuming we renew the Morgan - Hunter deal), making 191 in total
We'll need 40 to change to Fundy, leaving 151.
If we reset the sliders in 2148 to 30:10:60 we'll net 9 ec's from our own resources, totalling 22 with the Morgan payments
Establishing the invasion force
It costs 60 ec's to upgrade a Scout Rover (1-1-2) to an unarmored Impact Speeder (4-1-2), so we'd need 180 to allow 3 upgrades. The earliest that we'd have that in treasury would be 2150
We have currently an Impact Infantryman (Spartan Kel) and will have an Impact Speeder rolling off the production lines at Santiago Citadel in 2152. Assuming we morale-boost it thru the monolith at Sparta Command, the earliest it could board a ship would be 2155
So the results of this mini-analysis is that it's prolly not worth persevering with the Impact Rover build at SC2 - we'd get another Impact Infantryman for 1/2 the price (and could rush it for 10 ec's next turn for completion in 2148 - but it wouldn't reach Vladivostok until 2151)
So the question becomes:
do we wait till 2150 and upgrade 3 rovers to Impact and then set sail?
do we change SC2's to an infantryman, and set sail in 2151 with 2 rovers and 2 infantrymen?
do we wait until 2155 and set sail with 4 impact rovers?
(actually, it looks as though the new podpopped rover could pass thru the monolith and reach Vladivostok by 2154, so that, too is an alternative - but the cost for that option is 240 in upgrades)
Last edited by Googlie on 09-11-2004 at 20:51
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Maniac
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Gent, Belgium
Jul 1999
time: 06:19
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I've also giving some thought to that. Here's what I came up with:
IIRC University Base currently has three defending units.
So we could capture that base with upgrading only one elite rover.
First the Spartan Kel land with their first move and destroy the UoP impact infantry. Secondly the upgraded elite rover lands and destroys the IIRC two remaining scout patrols. Then there are two units left in the transport to take the empty base.
So if necessary we could begin invasion with only part of our force upgraded, and upgrade the rest a few turns later when we have the money.
As for changing or keeping the SC2 rover production, it's all fine by me. We could certainly use those minerals to build something else like a former, crawler, colony pod... But if we'd decide to keep building it, it not catching the first trannie to Zakland isn't a problem as far as I can see: could our transport not simply take a second trip to Zakland, filled with for example the SC2-built rover, a probe team, the podpopped rover or a second probe team, and perhaps a colony pod from the crater area?
And if we don't want to send it to Zakland, it could safeguard our homelands: a mental reassurance against those massive Hivean hordes. 
Btw, what will SNC Hermes do? Sail further east, or return west?
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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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Some musings while we wait for GM's formal response.
If, at Sparta Command, we change the worker from the 2-1-0 tile on the west of the base to the 0-1-1 tile NW of the monolith, we lose 2 nuts but gain 1 energy at the base (from 3 to 4)
Then if we change this turn to Fundy, we'll still have Doc Init in 2148, but those units coming online next turn will have Fundy's morale boost (a crawler - not much benefit as its earmarked for an SP, a former and the Hoplite at Minas Tirith - which is our first defense against Yang)
Might not look like it's worth the trade-off this turn, as it'd depress Sparta Command's growth for a turn, but a hardened Hoplite versus just a disciplined one might tilt the balance.
Hmm - we can achieve the same effect by moving the worker at Fort Buster from the mineral tile (1-3-0) to the rainy river tile (2-0-1) - the base doesn't need the mineral special to complete the former next turn). This has the advantage that at Rio Grande we can move the worker onto the vacated mineral tile thus also completing the Hoplite there next turn
I'll do that anyway, as it makes sense (re-allocating the workers at FB and RG)
Thoughts on changing this turn to Fundy for those (now 2) Hoplites coming on stream next turn?
Last edited by Googlie on 10-11-2004 at 20:54
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Maniac
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Gent, Belgium
Jul 1999
time: 06:19
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The Hermes and Pegasus routes look great!
Re switching to Fundy to give the hoplite a higher morale, this is not necessary according to my morale tests.
When one for example builds a unit in a base w/ command center under Wealth SE Values, there will be a morale level lost permanently, even if you later switch out of Wealth.
The same does not count however for positive SE morale levels: those are variable, added on top of that permanent "base" morale level.
When we'll switch to Fundy, we'll notice that the next turn ALL our non-probe units will have received one extra morale level, both those built before and after switching to Fundy. For example the currently commando Shinsengumi and VV scout patrol will both become elite.
Likewise, when we'd later switch out of Fundy, all our units will decrease in morale, both those built before and during the fundamentalist period.
So the hoplite will become hardened no matter when we switch to Fundy.
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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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Ah - I didn't know that (the temporary nature of the +1 morale)
So how about just moving the worker at FB off the 1-3-0 mineral tile to the 2-0-1 rainy/river tile to the east? we don't need the mins to complete the former, and the extra nut helps with the base growth plus the energy (in fact, that lets us move the sliders to 40-10-50 for the same 2148 completion but instead of 0 ec's we get 3 per turn)
This one alteration done, and turn posted
Attachment: acdg-3 - sparta, 2146, endturn.zip
This has been downloaded 3 time(s).
Last edited by Googlie on 11-11-2004 at 02:16
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Googlie
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Commanding Officer, CRYPTEIA
Apr 1999
time: 21:19
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moved to the uni invasion thread
Last edited by Googlie on 11-11-2004 at 19:09
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04-11-2004 01:48
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