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Drachasor
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quote:
Originally posted by problem_child
1200 people are known to have died in Falluja, what they were is unknown. How many more are dead is also unknown. Seems the Americans consider a "civilian" to be anyone working for them in the Green Zones. |
That's not quite fair. There have been 1,000 people that have died and been identified as "insurgents." Now, that number is probably a bit high, given that a civilian caught in an unfortunate circumstance might get ID'd a an insurgent.
The number of civilian deaths hasn't been released.
-Drachasor
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Drachasor
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
If our troops aren't counting, where the hell do they get these estimates from? |
Perhaps they are counting...just not counting bodies. The number could be wildly off the mark then.
-Drachasor
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:19
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And FWIW, the Guardian is claiming enormous civilian casualties in Fallujah. That sounds a hell of a lot more credible than the Pentagon's line that there were none.
quote:
The moves came amid renewed warnings from aid groups that Iraq's civilian population was facing a 'humanitarian catastrophe'.
Although many of Falluja's 200,000 to 300,000 residents fled the city before the assault, between 30,000 and 50,000 are believed to have remained during the fighting.
The horrific conditions for those who remained in the city have begun to emerge in the last 24 hours as it became clear that US military claims of 'precision' targeting of insurgent positions were false.
According to one Iraqi journalist who left Falluja on Friday, some of the civilian injuries were caused by the massive firepower directed on to city neighbourhoods during the battle.
'If the fighters fire a mortar, US forces respond with huge force,' said the journalist, who asked not to be named.
The city had been without power or water for days. Frozen food had spoiled and people could not charge their cellphones. 'Some people hadn't prepared well. They didn't stock up on tinned food. They didn't think it would be this bad,' he said.
At the main hospital, cut off from the rest of the city, doctors have reportedly been treating the injured with nothing but bandages, while the Red Crescent says people have been bleeding to death for lack of medical attention.
The claims came as an Iraqi Red Crescent convoy entered Falluja yesterday with the first aid supplies to reach the city since US-led forces began to blast their way in five days ago.
Prior to that the city had been surrounded by a US military cordon and subjected to heavy daily bombardment.
Red Crescent spokeswoman Firdoos al-Abadi - who had described the situation inside the city as 'catastrophic' - said 30 volunteers with five trucks and three ambulances had driven into the city west of Baghdad. |
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Stor...1350926,00.html
An AP photographer has more:
quote:
"Destruction was everywhere. I saw people lying dead in the streets, wounded were bleeding and there was no one to come and help them. Even the civilians who stayed in Fallujah were too afraid to go out," he said.
"There was no medicine, water, no electricity nor food for days."
By Tuesday afternoon, as U.S. forces and Iraqi rebels engaged in fierce clashes in the heart of his neighborhood, Hussein snapped.
"U.S. soldiers began to open fire on the houses, so I decided that it was very dangerous to stay in my house," he said.
[...]
"I decided to swim ... but I changed my mind after seeing U.S. helicopters firing on and killing people who tried to cross the river."
He watched horrified as a family of five was shot dead as they tried to cross. Then, he "helped bury a man by the river bank, with my own hands."
"I kept walking along the river for two hours and I could still see some U.S. snipers ready to shoot anyone who might swim. I quit the idea of crossing the river and walked for about five hours through orchards." |
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=sto...ping_fallujah_1
Last edited by Ramo on 15-11-2004 at 23:53
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Arrian
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Kneel before Grog!
Jul 2001
time: 00:19
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From an inbedded BBC reporter:
quote:
Eyewitness: Falluja battle scars
Bodies have been left uncollected for days
American forces say they are still fighting small pockets of insurgents in the city of Falluja.
Our correspondent, Paul Wood, is with American marines in the city. He gave the following interview to BBC Radio 4's Today programme:
If you look outside of my window now, you can see a deserted street with about five bodies on it.
They still have their weapons with them - [you can hear] a little bit of what they call "suppressing fire" from the marines, because occasionally people are still circling around.
These are bodies of insurgents who tried to attack the base over the last couple of days.
These bodies still have their weapons with them, because the marines think it's just too risky to go out a couple of hundred metres further from this base to take the weapons away.
The consequence of this, for the ordinary people of Falluja, is that for four days now there have been bodies lying in the streets.
It is starting to become a serious health risk.
I spoke to an officer who had been a little way out from the base and he said that cats and dogs are now starting to eat these bodies.
In these last hours and days of the fighting, it is more frantic, it is more intense
It is a quite horrific picture which I'm drawing but that is what awaits the people of Falluja when they come back.
Q: What resistance is there left? To what extent do the Americans now control the city?
They do pretty much control it, but there is still intense fighting going on.
Now remember that on Sunday, the Iraqi government declared mission accomplished.
Well, we're not quite there yet.
There are still injured coming into this base, yet you might hear occasionally at this base thunderous explosions - those are mortars firing volleys in support of the mission of the rest of this unit, which is now right in the south of the city.
The attack, to quote one officer this morning, "is being pressed very hard in the south of the city".
But the character of the fighting has changed.
It is no longer through extremely dense narrow streets and alleyways.
I went out with the marines doing a little bit of that on Friday and it was absolutely horrific. We took casualties on just 15 minutes into that fighting. The marines were being peppered with small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades constantly.
They dragged these casualties on - one guy literally bled all over my right trouser leg as we brought him back. They both survived.
The character of the fighting is changed now, because they have pushed the insurgents right to the edge of Falluja. The insurgents have nowhere else to go - there's only desert and the US army beyond them.
So in these last hours and days of the fighting, it is more frantic, it is more intense.
Q:If it's not safe to go out on the street, what is the situation for civilians there, as far as food and water is concerned?
Well, these are the crucial questions.
As an embedded reporter, I have a very limited ability, to be honest, to answer those. I see what my unit sees.
We have heard from the Iraqi Red Crescent that in their view, conditions are catastrophic inside Falluja - no food, no water, no medicines, no electricity.
On the other hand, the Iraqi health ministry, for instance, which is visiting this unit this Monday morning, says that the Red Crescent simply isn't in a position to make that assessment, precisely because it hasn't yet been allowed inside Falluja.
And the Iraqi health ministry's own figure for civilian casualties is 20, because it says most people are out of the town and those that are in have very sensibly - in fact they're compelled to - have stayed literally on the floor of their homes.
But given the volume of gunfire which is being poured out by the Americans, any civilians who are still here, of course their plight is desperate.
But to get any kind of assessment of the scale of the humanitarian tragedy - if indeed that's what it is - we have to know how many are here and we're not going to know that literally until the smoke clears.
Q: But as you travel with the American soldiers, do you come across civilians?
We saw literally a glimpse of civilians.
We were on the roof of a building - this was the first day of the battle in fact on Wednesday - and saw people waving white flags running away. And the marines stood up to say "Keep going, it's dangerous, don't come in this direction" and as soon as they did that, a volley of gunfire came in, because they'd revealed their position. And that was the only view of civilians that we have had.
One female civilian came to be treated at the medical post here and left before I had a chance to speak to her.
But I've questioned ordinary marines, officers and they say quite truthfully, we literally don't see civilians and that is the position of, I think, most of the US forces here - they do not see civilians.
Having said that, a big civil affairs effort is about to start.
The civil affairs people are arriving today with, just for this battalion, $20m to start very rapidly paying out compensation for damage, trying to repair things because they know - the marines know - they're going to be back here again unless they can win those famous hearts and minds.
Of course, I don't know how people are going to feel when they see their city and they see the holes in the mosques and they see the destruction that has been wrought by this battle. |
Seems like a plausible report to me.
-Arrian
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Drachasor
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quote:
Originally posted by Ramo
And FWIW, the Guardian is claiming enormous civilian casualties in Fallujah. That sounds a hell of a lot more credible than the Pentagon's line that there were none.
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I believe the official line is that they aren't releasing the numbers and don't know them exactly.
-Drachasor
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Drachasor
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Anyhow, there are naturally going to be a lot more civilian causalties than insurgent ones for the following reasons:
1. There are a lot more civilians there than insurgents.
2. It can be hard to tell the difference and hard to be cautious when soldiers making mistakes can easily end up dead.
3. There is probably a grey area of some civilians helping the insurgence, and this just muddies the water further.
4. Often the only reliable way to take out an insurgent is with overwhelming fire of some sort, which would typically lead to civilian causalties.
All these are true in Falluja and most Urban Warfare settings.
In Falluja in particular, the estimated civilians outnumber the estimated insurgents by a factor of 10 to 1 or so. Of course, the insurgents are much harder to estimate, and, if anything, are probably there in lower numbers. This just plays into the above points.
-Drachasor
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Drachasor
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quote:
Originally posted by Patroklos
We will ignore the fact that he said the bodies he sees still have there weapons. Obviously the Marines planted them. |
You missed the context. Those were insurgent bodies the guy was talking about, and they still have their weapons because the soldiers deem it too great a risk to go out there and get them. That speaks to the danger still in the city. He then goes on to talk about how the rotting bodies are becoming a serious health concern.
-Drachasor
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Drachasor
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
so answer me this, armchair insurgent strategists
IF the assault on Fallujah is strategically pointless, and guerillas move about like water, dissolving their opposition with small actions over time --- Then why did the insurgents follow up their escape from Fallujah almost immediately with a large scale attack in Mosul? Shouldnt they be keeping dispersed, not concentrating YET AGAIN for slaughter? Unless they are desperate to attack quickly because time is agains them? Either because they ARE being beaten militarily, OR because they are desperate to stop the January elections. Or else theyre just stupid. |
Oh, and all the insurgents died in Mosul? They didn't accomplish anything there? They've now penned themselves up there and won't be able to leave? You mean the military is there sweeping them out and they are holding their ground?
Oh, it's no, no, no, and no. They've lost nothing by attacking Mosul, and are just taking advantage of the fact a good portion of the U.S. military is tied up elsewhere.
You disperse when you are facing a coming concentrated attack, then you move and concentrate elsewhere again to strike other targets. As much as possible. If you have to stay dispersed all the time, then you do that, but this basically never happens.
-Drachasor
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:19
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
so answer me this, armchair insurgent strategists
IF the assault on Fallujah is strategically pointless, and guerillas move about like water, dissolving their opposition with small actions over time --- Then why did the insurgents follow up their escape from Fallujah almost immediately with a large scale attack in Mosul? Shouldnt they be keeping dispersed, not concentrating YET AGAIN for slaughter? Unless they are desperate to attack quickly because time is agains them? Either because they ARE being beaten militarily, OR because they are desperate to stop the January elections. Or else theyre just stupid. |
OR to show that they are strong elsehwhere than Fallujah? OR to ignite ethnic conflict in the North to add more issues?
I doubt most Insurgents in Iraq have read Mao and his works at this point- at the same time, the attacks in Mosul have thrown a uch larger city than Fallujah into tumult.
Time is not against the insurgents- its for them- the longer things last, the more the interim government is undermined- the more of a mess the elections come January become, thus giving them a claim of illegitimacy. The sunni insurgents can't possibly take over the country-they have too limited a scope. But they can cause the country to split up or move to a bloody mess, which they probably think is good for them somehow.
Irsungencies have a public relations side- the US sotryline seemed to be "we take fallujah, huge victory!"- now the wisdom is "Fallujah is a victory, but it cetainly is not an end", which is a better ending for insurgents.
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:19
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Fallujah wasn't pointless, BTW, if you look at purely as a military exercise. Unfortunately, it was a PR disaster.
As I've said earlier, Fallujah has practically guaranteed that the Sunni Arabs are going to boycott the election. That means the Sunni Arabs would have absolutely no place in the gov't, and the insurgency would last at least as long as that gov't does. Further, without the Sunni Arabs in Parliament, the Shia would have an overwhelming majority of seats, and would make the Kurds feel that much more marginalized.
Last edited by Ramo on 16-11-2004 at 00:44
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General Ludd
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Minion of the Dominion
Aug 2001
time: 05:19
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quote:
Originally posted by The diplomat
Well, we did kill approx. 1200 enemy fighters in Fallujah. |
And how many more have been recruited in that time?
And how many more people - in Iraq and abroad - will be inclined to join them in the future after seeing the foreign occupants fighting through the streets and demolishing buildings?
quote:
IF the assault on Fallujah is strategically pointless, and guerillas move about like water, dissolving their opposition with small actions over time --- Then why did the insurgents follow up their escape from Fallujah almost immediately with a large scale attack in Mosul? Shouldnt they be keeping dispersed, not concentrating YET AGAIN for slaughter? Unless they are desperate to attack quickly because time is agains them? Either because they ARE being beaten militarily, OR because they are desperate to stop the January elections. Or else theyre just stupid. |
You remind me of another quote. 
"Many people think it impossible for guerillas to exist for long in the enemy's rear. Such a belief reveals lack of comprehension of the relationship that should exist between the people and the troops. The former may be likened to water and the latter to the fish who inhabit it. How may it be said that these two cannot exist together? It is only undisciplined troops who make the people their enemies and who, like the fish out of its native element, cannot live."
Guerillas do not move about like water and slowly dissolve the opposition through small actions like you suggest, they move about in the water (the civilians) and simply persist. They aren't (well, i really can't speak for the 'insurgents' in Iraq - but generally speaking) fighting a military war, they are fighting a political war. Their objective is not to defeat their enemies on the field of battle - it's to harrass them, demoralize them, and turn people against them, so that their occupation is impossible.
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Drachasor
Oh, and all the insurgents died in Mosul? They didn't accomplish anything there? They've now penned themselves up there and won't be able to leave? You mean the military is there sweeping them out and they are holding their ground?
Oh, it's no, no, no, and no. They've lost nothing by attacking Mosul, |
In fact 30 of them have been reported killed in Mosul already, and they dont seem to have left yet. Meanwhile Iraqi and US troops are rushing to Mosul, where I presume another cordon will established. This time it should be easier, as the insurgents wont have prepared as they did in Fallujah. As for disrupting Mosul, reports ive seen indicate that the Kurdish and Turkmen parts of the city are NOT disrupted. And police stations have been recaptured in the Sunni Arab sections. Whenever and whereever the insurgent concentrate their losses to gains ratios is far higher than when they pursue small attacks with IEDs, etc.
Mao indicated, IIRC, that you attack in small groups, until the other guy is close collapse. A 500 man assault at this point doesnt make sense.
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15-11-2004 20:03
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