09-11-2004 01:21									#31
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That's how it was sold- that Saddam was the figurehead cause most insurgents were "dead-enders" and seeing Saddam caught would signify that there was no going back, plus the money he was funneling would dry up and insurgents would run out of it.

Now of course, its all about Zarqawi and Fallujah, and once its in our hands..ditto.

That simplistic viewpoint was wrojng about Saddam- it will be wrong about Fallujah or Zarqawi. Thought the truth- that crusing the insurgency will be a long term war, which we will only really win once we have more backing in the Sunni areas (or at least an Iraqi gov. seen as legitimate by the Sunni) so we can get more intelligence for the sort of anti-insurgency campaign the Brits won in Malaysia, or the French in Algeria (they won the Battle of Algeirs, lost the political war)

	09-11-2004 01:24									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Sandman It's the new Tora Bora. The insurgents will slink away, and regroup. Quite why the Americans have felt the need to take so long over this is beyond me. A surprise attack would have been more effective at disrupting the insurgents, IMO.

1. This isnt surrounded by mountains, so capturing people fleeing should be easier.
2. Some will certainly escaped. Its not clear thats decisive. Plenty of Mahdi army fighters escaped Najaf. Havent heard much from them lately. At some point even a guerilla force has to defend its sanctuary, its base. Lawrences guerillas had British support. Mao had Yennan. If we both kill/capture a large percentage of them and take away their sanctuary, that will be a big gain, even if its not THE turning point.
3. We waited to have enough trained Iraqi troops, both to join in the offensive and to maintain order afterwards.

	09-11-2004 01:27									#33
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark And I dont think the role of Fallujah in the insurgency should be underestimated. The insurgents themselves have devoted heavy resources to its defense.

Obviously Fallujah is a symbol to both sides- the question is, how many of their resources did the Insurgents spend in securing Fallujah? unless it was a very significant fraction, they will recover.

quote: We may have underestimated the number of insurgents in the past - notably when for months the Pentagon said, no more than 5000, and then a figure of 20000 was quoted, though i note it was never clarified whom that represented. Certainly these massive numbers did NOT prevent the restoration of order in Najaf. And Basra. And Sadr City. While insurgents in Samarra have proved more resilient than those is Sadr City, that may be well be related to their Fallujah connections.

Thats the things, 20,000 is NOT a huge number- that is not how insurgencies work- they will never be able to take the US on in pitched battles- and they are not the Vietcong, getting massive amounts of military aid from some external government. But they can keep whatever Iraqi government takes over unstable. To do that they don;t need 100,000 men, they really don;t need to have complete control over any cities, they just need to have well trained and hidden cells all throughtout the Sunni areas.

	09-11-2004 01:27									#34
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The truth is none of us know. Let's wait & see (and hope for the best).

-Arrian

	09-11-2004 01:28									#35
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quote: Originally posted by GePap That's how it was sold- that Saddam was the figurehead cause most insurgents were "dead-enders" and seeing Saddam caught would signify that there was no going back, plus the money he was funneling would dry up and insurgents would run out of it. Now of course, its all about Zarqawi and Fallujah, and once its in our hands..ditto. That simplistic viewpoint was wrojng about Saddam- it will be wrong about Fallujah or Zarqawi. Thought the truth- that crusing the insurgency will be a long term war, which we will only really win once we have more backing in the Sunni areas (or at least an Iraqi gov. seen as legitimate by the Sunni) so we can get more intelligence for the sort of anti-insurgency campaign the Brits won in Malaysia, or the French in Algeria (they won the Battle of Algeirs, lost the political war)

Mohammed al Douri, who is still at large, apparently has served as a link between the ex-baathists and the Wahabis. He may well have brought a large part of the money with him - there is also evidence of funding from Wahabi sources in KSA, and from Iran.

Improving security can itself help in gaining intell, as can economic reconstruction.

	09-11-2004 01:29									#36
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark 2. Some will certainly escaped. Its not clear thats decisive. Plenty of Mahdi army fighters escaped Najaf. Havent heard much from them lately. At some point even a guerilla force has to defend its sanctuary, its base. Lawrences guerillas had British support. Mao had Yennan. If we both kill/capture a large percentage of them and take away their sanctuary, that will be a big gain, even if its not THE turning point.

Sadr's political base is very different from the Sunni insurgents, of whom there really has not been any particular single leader- the Madhi army was one man's private militia. the "insurgents" seem to be a more diffuse and varied sort, either driven out of religious fanaticism, nationalism, or understanding that the Sunni will not be as powerful in the new Iraq.

	09-11-2004 01:30									#37
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quote: The truth is none of us know. Let's wait & see (and hope for the best).

	09-11-2004 01:36									#38
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Obviously Fallujah is a symbol to both sides- the question is, how many of their resources did the Insurgents spend in securing Fallujah? unless it was a very significant fraction, they will recover. Thats the things, 20,000 is NOT a huge number- that is not how insurgencies work- they will never be able to take the US on in pitched battles- and they are not the Vietcong, getting massive amounts of military aid from some external government. But they can keep whatever Iraqi government takes over unstable. To do that they don;t need 100,000 men, they really don;t need to have complete control over any cities, they just need to have well trained and hidden cells all throughtout the Sunni areas.

To win they need to wear down the the govt - they need to reduce the govts ability to govern, to rebuild, to gain legitimacy, etc faster than the govt can build it. A very large proportion of their recent attacks have been on recruitment sites for Iraqi forces - yet the Iraqi forces continue to recruit. Or on local Iraqi officials - yet people still enter those jobs and rebuild the govt (the flip side, BTW, of succession in AQ, in the insurgency, etc) At this point the insurgency is, at most, barely keeping the Iraqi govt from making progress - actually many would claim that progress has been achieved despite attacks in the economy, in governance, in the growth of Iraqi forces, and now in the preparations for the elections. IF - big IF - the battle for Fallujah sets back the insurgency significantly, that opens a window not only for the January election, but for the govt to move ahead on reconstruction, on security force building, etc. The insurgency cant simply wait forever - their opportunity will pass with time, as the govt becomes established.

Even a permanent base among the Sunni Arabs is not assured - politics among Sunni Arabs in Iraq is apparentely heavily tribal and regional, and a govt with sufficient assurance and resources should be able to play tribes off against each other.

	09-11-2004 01:37									#39
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KSA?

	09-11-2004 01:39									#40
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Sadr's political base is very different from the Sunni insurgents, of whom there really has not been any particular single leader- the Madhi army was one man's private militia. the "insurgents" seem to be a more diffuse and varied sort, either driven out of religious fanaticism, nationalism, or understanding that the Sunni will not be as powerful in the new Iraq.

A sufficient window to allow Iraqi forces to be trained, and replace Americans, will gradually dry up nationalism. As for fanaticism, that is a problem faced in Islamic countries from Algeria to Indonesia, and one that Iraq will likely face in the future, though as in those countried progress may take place.

	09-11-2004 01:40									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Patroklos Exactly, the media needs to monitor their adjective usage so we can actually get some realtive meaning from the descriptions.

Yep, all talk of heavy fighting all the time makes me a bit sceptical. What is heavy fighting? My humble opinion is that we should get a few Stalingrad vets with lousy pensions a paid tip down there, so we have some people qualified to make that kind of judgement.

	09-11-2004 01:52									#42
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The timing is really food for conspiracy theories. 2-3 months ago, I half-jokingly said that the attack would start on November 3rd, when there is nothing left to lose on the American home front. Seems I was wrong by only 4 days. Bush

	09-11-2004 02:33									#43
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What exactly would the conspiracy be? That the administration had been planning this operation for weeks/ months before the election rather than days (Oh horros, they planned it for a change!), and then delayed the assault until just after the election? That would fall under "common knowledge", I believe.

	09-11-2004 02:48									#44
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The conspiracy is that the body bags don't matter anymore, now that the American election is over

	09-11-2004 03:10									#45
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark A sufficient window to allow Iraqi forces to be trained, and replace Americans, will gradually dry up nationalism.

Only once most American forces leave-which means the issues will have moved possibly from an anti-US insurgency to a lowe level internal civil war ala Colombia, or a full blown civil war ala Bosnia.

	09-11-2004 03:17									#46
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Earlier I read about an operation carried out by undercover Iraqi police against insurgents in some place away from Fallujah. The point is that I'm glad to see that they are fighting back. I'm getting tired of reading about insurgents taking over police stations and executing officers. Hopefully with stronger police (in terms of struggling against the insurgents), more and more Iraqis will align themselves with the government which would hurt the insurgency.

	09-11-2004 03:21									#47
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quote: United Nations Convention (I) for the Amelioration of the Condition of the Wounded and Sick in Armed Forces in the Field Signed at Geneva, 12 August 1949 CHAPTER III Medical Units and Establishments Art. 19. Fixed establishments and mobile medical units of the Medical Service may in no circumstances be attacked, but shall at all times be respected and protected by the Parties to the conflict. Should they fall into the hands of the adverse Party, their personnel shall be free to pursue their duties, as long as the capturing Power has not itself ensured the necessary care of the wounded and sick found in such establishments and units.

http://www.canadahistory.com/sectio...nforwounded.htm

	09-11-2004 03:22									#48
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Only once most American forces leave-which means the issues will have moved possibly from an anti-US insurgency to a lowe level internal civil war ala Colombia, or a full blown civil war ala Bosnia.

Im thinking Algeria, Pakistan, and Indonesia would be the relevant comparisons, since the Islamist linkages would still exist. And as in Pakistan there would be ethnic overtones.

	09-11-2004 03:28									#49
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quote: Originally posted by Chemical Ollie The conspiracy is that the body bags don't matter anymore, now that the American election is over

That's not a conspiracy. That's stating the bloody obvious.

	09-11-2004 03:30									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Tripledoc http://www.canadahistory.com/sectio...nforwounded.htm

Article 21:
Art. 21. The protection to which fixed establishments and mobile medical units of the Medical Service are entitled shall not cease unless they are used to commit, outside their humanitarian duties, acts harmful to the enemy. Protection may, however, cease only after a due warning has been given, naming, in all appropriate cases, a reasonable time limit, and after such warning has remained unheeded.

	09-11-2004 03:35									#51
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Except there were no insurgents at the hospital. And I have seen photographs of doctors beeing forced down to the floor and handcuffed.

The official reason for the capture was that the US were worried about "inflated" civilian casualty figures. And no mention were made of them being used by the insurgents. There was no mention of a specific warning either.

	09-11-2004 03:37									#52
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Art. 22. The following conditions shall not be considered as depriving a medical unit or establishment of the protection guaranteed by Article 19:

(1) That the personnel of the unit or establishment are armed, and that they use the arms in their own defence, or in that of the wounded and sick in their charge.
(2) That in the absence of armed orderlies, the unit or establishment is protected by a picket or by sentries or by an escort.
(3) That small arms and ammunition taken from the wounded and sick and not yet handed to the proper service, are found in the unit or establishment.
(4) That personnel and material of the veterinary service are found in the unit or establishment, without forming an integral part thereof.
(5) That the humanitarian activities of medical units and establishments or of their personnel extend to the care of civilian wounded or sick.

	09-11-2004 03:48									#53
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quote: Originally posted by Tripledoc Except there were no insurgents at the hospital. And I have seen photographs of doctors beeing forced down to the floor and handcuffed. The official reason for the capture was that the US were worried about "inflated" civilian casualty figures. And no mention were made of them being used by the insurgents. There was no mention of a specific warning either.

"The hospital was taken by Iraqi forces, with support from U.S. Marines, at about 10:45 p.m. local time yesterday, Major Kris Meyle said in a telephone interview from Baghdad. ``There were no shots fired and no casualties,'' she said, adding that ``a number'' of people were detained. The New York Times reported that the hospital was a suspected rebel refuge. "

	09-11-2004 03:56									#54
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Why was the hospital taken then?

It is the largest hospital in the area. Presumably it is a tall building.

	09-11-2004 03:58									#55
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I saw footage of an Iraqi soldier after he'd shot himself in the foot taking the hospital. Although it's a minor issue, if the Major says there were no shots fired and no casualties, when even one shot was actually fired and one wound occurred, it makes me think that we're going to be hearing lots of canned media releases that don't actually bear much truth to what exactly went on. As usual.

	09-11-2004 03:59									#56
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Truth is the first casualty in any war. Any other news?

	09-11-2004 04:22									#57
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I personally think that we will win this thing in a week's time with very few allied casualties. The main issue is getting Zarqawi. I have a gut feeling he has already gone and is in Baghdad.

	09-11-2004 04:23									#58
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Well, wasn't US casualties at Hue something like 150? This should be rather less bloody.

	09-11-2004 05:25									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Gibsie That's not a conspiracy. That's stating the bloody obvious.

Don't you find it lame that domestic politics dictate what Generals on the battle field should decide? I think it's cynical to wait with a bloody battle until the election is over, when it had to be done in any case.

	09-11-2004 05:29									#60
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Tripledoc: Iraqi forces are not bound by the Geneva convention while fighting insurgents in their own country. Your posts in this thread are totally irrelevant.