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Drachasor is offline Drachasor
Warlord

Jun 2004
time: 00:19
  Old Post 09-11-2004 20:59
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quote:
Originally posted by Ned
On Falluja, it appears there are few defenders. Why?


A lot of the pure terrorists probably just left the city. Others had nowhere to go and so they are fighting or avoiding fighting.

Anyhow, the U.S. will have to keep troops there and perhaps the best bet is to have minimal fighting and then capitalize on the civilian anger to recruit more people to attack the stationed troops. The U.S. is destroying a lot of buildings as they go through.

Of course, I am no expert, these are just my understandings (though someone knowledgeable about this sort of thing suggested the pure terrorists would probably have left). There could always be something else going on too (worst case the city gets nuked, though I don't think that is very likely).

-Drachasor

Chemical Ollie is offline Chemical Ollie
Prince
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Jan 2002
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:03
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quote:
Originally posted by Ned
On Falluja, it appears there are few defenders. Why?


Guerilla warfare does not include big battles with 1000's of soldiers involved on each side. Only a few are stupid/brave enough to face the Marines in regular combat. They are mostly hiding to come back and fight another day, under conditions where they can have the initiative.

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:19
  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:05
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Drach, I am only reporting what was said by others in the thread on this topic. Apparently one of the networks showed GIs cutting the IAEA "locks" circa May 10 when they returned to the ammo dump in force. Another story or the same story says that the 3rd ID hauled the HE away.

I think we need to wait for the Army report to find out what happened.

Patroklos is offline Patroklos
Warlord
Back home in good ole Norfolk VA
Dec 2001
time: 05:19
  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:08
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quote:
how many 'civilians' are still in falluja ?

i think that answers the question...


Exactly.

So much for Trip's Geneva troll

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:13
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quote:
Originally posted by Chemical Ollie


Guerilla warfare does not include big battles with 1000's of soldiers involved on each side. Only a few are stupid/brave enough to face the Marines in regular combat. They are mostly hiding to come back and fight another day, under conditions where they can have the initiative.


This makes sense.

Which means the terrorists of the Zarqawi variety will not waste a lot of manpower defending cities. They may also have learned what happens when you stand and fight the US military by looking at what happend to Sadr.

If this is true, we may only be facing local "regime" elements in Falluja who would rather defend their own turf than fight elsewhere.

As to what happens after the terrorists are routed, it depends, does it not, on the attitude of the citizens. Look at what happened to Sadr's support in Najaf after all the destruction. The citizens blamed him.

dannubis is offline dannubis
Chieftain
Ghent
Apr 2002
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:14
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which unfortunately for the coalition doesn't mean you guys can kill everybody on sight.

so actually you got yourselves again in a situation where you are forced to fight with both hands tied behind your back. and this is why iraq can never be really pacified by military force.

Patroklos is offline Patroklos
Warlord
Back home in good ole Norfolk VA
Dec 2001
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:17
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You know back in the day citizens didn't do this "melt back into the populaion" thing, because armies would kill the population.

Se what happens when you give them an inch.

Cruddy is offline Cruddy
Warlord

Mar 2003
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:21 Visit Cruddy's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Ned

Which means the terrorists of the Zarqawi variety will not waste a lot of manpower defending cities. They may also have learned what happens when you stand and fight the US military by looking at what happend to Sadr.


He became a heroic defender of Islam against the Infidel.

quote:
Originally posted by Ned
If this is true, we may only be facing local "regime" elements in Falluja who would rather defend their own turf than fight elsewhere.

As to what happens after the terrorists are routed, it depends, does it not, on the attitude of the citizens. Look at what happened to Sadr's support in Najaf after all the destruction. The citizens blamed him.


Ned, the US drops tons and tons of explosives on Najaf... and the citizens blame Sadr?

Stop taking in Fox News on a drip and try to put yourself in the shoes of someone whose country has been invaded.

Sure, few Iraqis want Saddam.

Even less want infidels with guns roaming the streets.

Drachasor is offline Drachasor
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Jun 2004
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:25
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My understanding from the polls in Iraq is there is about a 50/50 split on the American forces. Basically no one likes how things are going, but about 50 percent of people are hopeful that conditions will improve. Others are much more cynical about how much better things are going to get.

-Drachasor

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
Emperor
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Cruddy



Ned, the US drops tons and tons of explosives on Najaf... and the citizens blame Sadr?

Stop taking in Fox News on a drip and try to put yourself in the shoes of someone whose country has been invaded.

Sure, few Iraqis want Saddam.

Even less want infidels with guns roaming the streets.


Cruddy, the citizens of Najaf DID blame Sadr. It wasnt just on Fox, it was clear via every mainstream media channel. Ramo and I discussed why, and the question of whether Najaf was exceptional and why. This aint just a nedaverse thing.

Few Iraqis WANT Americans roaming the streets, but almost all the Kurds and a large percentage of the Shia Arabs (the exact percentage is QUITE disputed) understand the NEED for Americans to be there now.

NPR, not a conservative outlet, had a piece this morning on reaction in Baghdad to the attack on Fallujah. Most Sunni Arabs they spoke to thought it was a bad idea, while Shiites in Sadr City saw it as necessary. And Sadr City is one of the Shiite areas least friendly to Americans.

I think some of us have little idea of the hatred the Shia of Iraq bear for the ex-Baathists, the Wahabi extremists, and the foreign arabs who have been using Fallujah as a base to attack them.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Drachasor


A lot of the pure terrorists probably just left the city. Others had nowhere to go and so they are fighting or avoiding fighting.

Anyhow, the U.S. will have to keep troops there and perhaps the best bet is to have minimal fighting and then capitalize on the civilian anger to recruit more people to attack the stationed troops. The U.S. is destroying a lot of buildings as they go through.

Of course, I am no expert, these are just my understandings (though someone knowledgeable about this sort of thing suggested the pure terrorists would probably have left). There could always be something else going on too (worst case the city gets nuked, though I don't think that is very likely).

-Drachasor



The US and Iraqi troops arent just blowing up buildings for the hell of it. They blow up buildings when said buildings are used by insurgents. Which means the insurgents too have a dilemma. IF you run, you DONT get scenes of destruction. You give up your sanctuary for nothing. IF you stay, you DO get scenes of destruction, BUT you lose fighters. You DO get the propanda win, but you pay for it.

Cruddy is offline Cruddy
Warlord

Mar 2003
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:33 Visit Cruddy's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark

Few Iraqis WANT Americans roaming the streets, but almost all the Kurds and a large percentage of the Shia Arabs (the exact percentage is QUITE disputed) understand the NEED for Americans to be there now.


Ned, the first casualty of war... is the truth.

Like I said, imagine (just sit and imagine) what your reaction would be to a bunch of foreigners turning up in your hometown and blowing the sh1t out of all and sundry.

quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
I think some of us have little idea of the hatred the Shia of Iraq bear for the ex-Baathists, the Wahabi extremists, and the foreign arabs who have been using Fallujah as a base to attack them.


I think most Americans have no concept of what it feels like to be invaded.

EDIT: The Americans that do have such a concept are the Vietnamese immigrants.

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:19
  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:34
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The Shia see thier chance to finally have power on a democratic government- that assumes of course they expect majority rule. The Kurds expect to have lots of autonomy,- that assumes lots of rights to large minorities (the Kurds might not care to have the Turkomen and other smaller groups to all of a sudden get rights themselves that could interfere with Kurdish rule). These two expectations will clash.

The problem that storming and regaining control of Fallujah won't solve is that Sunni Arabs don't particularly win anything in either case, so they have every reason to be obstructionist.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
Prince
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:19
  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:35
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quote:
I think most Americans have no concept of what it feels like to be invaded.


English people do?

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
Emperor
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:36
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quote:
Originally posted by Ned
On Falluja, it appears there are few defenders. Why?


early reports said 3000 to 5000 fighter in the city. Latest reports from BBC, CNN elsewhere indicate 1200 to 3000. Probably anywhere from a few hundred to 3000 got away before the incursion.

The rest are being killed and captured, or are moving about within the city, using guerilla tactics. Heavy resistance was reported on the edge of the city. Resistance is lighter than expected in Jowlan, but its certainly not absent. They may well have developed other centers within the city, assuming the americans would go for Jowlan.

Significant numbers seem to on the move in Ramadi, where they are being fought.

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:19
  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:39
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The point of being an insurgent is being able to meld into the population, and run when you can't win, which the insurgents will never be able to do in a pitched battle vs. the US army. Ay insurgents with brains (the dnagerous ones) are thinking of ways to get out- the ones with balls but no brains and the ones with neither are out there getting blown up.

Gibsie is offline Gibsie
Emperor
all over the proverbial shop
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:42
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quote:
Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
English people do?


Not heard of genetic memory? We English can all recall the pain of when Willy the Conquerer invaded nearly a millenium ago.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
Emperor
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:19
  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:46
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quote:
Originally posted by Cruddy


Ned, the first casualty of war... is the truth.

Like I said, imagine (just sit and imagine) what your reaction would be to a bunch of foreigners turning up in your hometown and blowing the sh1t out of all and sundry.



I think most Americans have no concept of what it feels like to be invaded.

EDIT: The Americans that do have such a concept are the Vietnamese immigrants.


1. Im NOT Ned.

2. Imagine your country being run by a tyrant, who discriminated against the group you belong to, and who used totalitarian methods. Now imagine that said dictator got into a war with some outside power, and lost. And said outside power called on you and fellow members of your group to rise in rebellion. And you did so. And said outside power sat on its hands while said dictator slaughetered members of your group, including your own friends and relatives. Now said foreigners come in overthrow said dictator, but fail to protect you from terrorist acts by folks who were the elite under said dictator.

I would be VERY skeptical about the foreigners, and angry at them for FAILING to protect me from the terrorists.

3. My wife was born in Hungary, though she is too young to remember the '56. Her mother lived through the German takeover in '44 as well as the Soviet Invasion in '56. She did not get to see the Soviet invasion of Hungary in '45, as she was in Auschwitz at the time. She was eventually liberated by Soviet troops. I assure you that she was not angry at the Soviets for invading Hungary in '45.

There are many Americans who have a range of experiences you dont realize. I would say if it happened to any sizeable group of people on the planet, there are SOME Americans who experienced it.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
Prince
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:46
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quote:
Originally posted by Gibsie
Not heard of genetic memory? We English can all recall the pain of when Willy the Conquerer invaded nearly a millenium ago.


I'm genetically English, as well, so 'tis a pain I know all too well. Sometimes I wake up at night screaming for Harold to rest his troops before heading to Hastings...

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
Emperor
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 21:47
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
The point of being an insurgent is being able to meld into the population, and run when you can't win, which the insurgents will never be able to do in a pitched battle vs. the US army. Ay insurgents with brains (the dnagerous ones) are thinking of ways to get out- the ones with balls but no brains and the ones with neither are out there getting blown up.


any one who wanted to "ive to fight another day" should have gotten out weeks ago, before the close cordon was set up. Theyre going through the city house to house now, and the Iraqi troops with them can tell Iraqi accents from foreign accented arabic.

It should also be recalled that the insurgents have been under air attack for almost two months, and under artillery attack for over a week prior to the ground assault.


CNN:
'There has been less organized resistance than expected so far, said Lt. Col. Pete Newell with Task Force 22 of the 1st Infantry Division.

Nevertheless, insurgent casualty numbers mount. Newell said his Army unit has killed or wounded 85 to 90 insurgents.

"Thirty hours into the fighting, Task Force 22 and the attached Iraqi intervention force have sustained minimal casualties," Newell said.

Michael Ware, Time magazine's Baghdad bureau chief embedded with U.S. soldiers, described the fighting as street-to-street battles, with sporadic resistance and no signs of organization among the insurgents. Most of the insurgents are in small groups, he said, with the most being 25 in one place. '

Last edited by lord of the mark on 09-11-2004 at 21:55

Last Conformist is offline Last Conformist
King
of Calakmul
Jul 2003
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 22:00
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quote:
Originally posted by Patroklos
You know back in the day citizens didn't do this "melt back into the populaion" thing, because armies would kill the population.

Se what happens when you give them an inch.

True, but I do not think this a change for the worse.

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 22:08
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Hmm, light resistance- sounds like Samara.

Pax is offline Pax
Chieftain

Feb 2003
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 22:12
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Can people please stop referring to the Iraqi's and foreign fighters as "terrorists". Call them guerilla's, insurgent, rebels, dissidents, rabble rousers, freedom fighters or whatever, but they are not terrorists by definition. terrorists don't control cities, rebels do. Terrorists hijack planes.

Drachasor is offline Drachasor
Warlord

Jun 2004
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 22:19
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
The US and Iraqi troops arent just blowing up buildings for the hell of it. They blow up buildings when said buildings are used by insurgents. Which means the insurgents too have a dilemma. IF you run, you DONT get scenes of destruction. You give up your sanctuary for nothing. IF you stay, you DO get scenes of destruction, BUT you lose fighters. You DO get the propanda win, but you pay for it.


Well, duh, but my point is that there are going to be a lot of civilian causalities and that could potentially be capitalized upon by unsavory elements.

-Drachasor

Drachasor is offline Drachasor
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Jun 2004
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 22:21
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quote:
Originally posted by Pax
Can people please stop referring to the Iraqi's and foreign fighters as "terrorists". Call them guerilla's, insurgent, rebels, dissidents, rabble rousers, freedom fighters or whatever, but they are not terrorists by definition. terrorists don't control cities, rebels do. Terrorists hijack planes.


There is a lot of gray area though, and there are a lot of terrorists in Iraq. There have been a lot of illegal targets by the insurgent forces, hence acts of terrorism.

I don't pretend to believe that all the insurgents agree with non-military attacks though.

-Drachasor

Kidicious is offline Kidicious
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Mar 2003
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  Old Post 09-11-2004 23:38 Visit Kidicious's homepage!
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gl Iraq

Kidicious is offline Kidicious
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The only nonembedded journalists that I have heard from say that no Iraqis support this attack.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
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  Old Post 10-11-2004 03:35
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"The number two US commander in Iraq, Lieutenant General Thomas Metz, has said that the operation in Falluja has achieved its objectives on or ahead of schedule in the first 48 hours.

"I think we're looking at several more days of tough urban fighting," said Gen Metz, the overall operational commander for the Falluja mission.

Iraqi government forces involved in the operation have performed admirably, as Gen Metz put it.

LOTM - Iraqi forces performance


He described casualties on the US side as light - about a dozen, he said, but he wouldn't be more specific; and he said he believed there had been very few civilian casualties.

LOTM - low US, low civilian casualties

Insurgent casualties he described as significant but acknowledged that many of the leaders - including Abu Musab al-Zarqawi - had probably fled.

LOTM - insurgent forces high casualties

key figures escape



The insurgents are now fighting in small groups of three to six, he said, and without much coherence.

But according to him, the coming days will show whether US-led forces are pushing the enemy back, capturing or killing them, or whether the insurgents are just falling back. '

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
The only nonembedded journalists that I have heard from say that no Iraqis support this attack.



From Healing Iraq:

"Note, that I'm not suggesting a peaceful or political solution would work either in these areas. Insurgents west of Baghdad have quite obstinately made it clear that nothing but full control of the country, or at least the Anbar governorate, will satisfy them. They have refused to participate in the political process, they have repeatedly announced their intentions to boycott the elections and to disrupt them in other areas, and they do not recognise the government or any other authority in the country beside themselves.

The demands of the Fallujah negotiants from the government weeks ago were obscene and they clearly reflect the overt sectarianism and regionalism of the armed groups in the area. The demands were not released to the Iraqi public at the time for unkown reasons but they have leaked out days ago. Here are just a few of them:
-A clear timetable for the withdrawal of foreign occupation forces (fair enough).
-Immediate withdrawal of US and Iraqi security forces from the Anbar governorate and the handover of security responsibilities to former army officers from Anbar.
-The appointment of ministers from the Anbar governorate to the ministries of Interior, Defense, Oil and Finance.
-The removal of certain officials (most of them from Shi'ite Islamic parties such as Ibrahim Al-Ja'fari) from governmental positions.
-The complete return of Ba'athists, army officers, Republican Guards, Mukhabarat, intelligence and security personnel to their former positions.
-The removal of Shi'ite Edhan (call for prayers) from official television and radio programs.
-Incomes of Shi'ite sacred shrines should be returned under the control of the Ministry of Endowments and Religious Affairs.


These last two demands have been allegedly added by Sheikh Harith Al-Dhari (head of the Association of Muslim Scholars) and are said to have been a major reason behind the failure of negotiations with the government.

Iraqis here in the south were shocked to hear of these demands and sectarian tensions are on the rise. It scares me to see the reaction of people around me whenever Fallujah is mentioned. The director of a primary health care clinic was remarking the other day that "Fallujah should be burnt upon its residents and then razed to the ground. They are the sons of Mu'awiya, may Allah curse them all." Sidenote: Mu'awiya bin Abi Sufyan was the governor of Syria during the 7th century and he fought Imam Ali bin Abi Talib (Muhammed's son-in-law) over the Caliphate after the assassination of Caliph Othman. He became the first Ummayid Caliph and two decades later, under the Caliphate of his son Yazid, Imam Hussein bin Ali (grandson of Muhammed) was killed by his armies at present day Karbala. Someone hushed the director and pointed out to him that I'm Sunni. He was a bit embarrassed and tried to explain that he was referring to Wahhabis and foreign fighters. It was a bit uncomfortable and I could feel that people were giving me furtive glances. '

Last Conformist is offline Last Conformist
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  Old Post 10-11-2004 03:59
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Not to blacken LOTM's day or anything, but Little Raven posted this on CFC, attributed to Andrew Sullivan:

quote:
No Iraqi army or national guard unit fought in Al Fallujah, sources close to the Interim Iraqi Government (IIG) say. Iraqi national guard units reportedly have refused to attack guerrilla positions; their commanders have been unable to make soldiers move forward and some officers are siding with the troops. Only the Iraqi army's special forces unit, which is mostly Kurdish, helped search for hidden guerrillas behind U.S. Marine lines outside the city. Hundreds of Iraqi soldiers have deserted to bases around Al Fallujah, the sources added.

 
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