13-11-2004 21:37									#61
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Here's a list of the seats up for election in 2006 in states with a Democrat senator that were at least within striking distance of Bush...

Florida -- Bill Nelson
Michigan -- Debbie Stabenow
Minnesota -- Mark Dayton
Nebraska -- Ben Nelson
New Mexico -- Jeff Bingaman
North Dakota -- Kent Conrad
West Virginia -- Robert Byrd
Wisconsin -- Herbert Kohl

Of course, there will be retirements (like Byrd) and some of these people are safe. Also, there are always some curveballs. Like Kennedy retiring and there being a strong GOP candidate in Massachusetts.

From...

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2002/6year.htm

	13-11-2004 21:46									#62
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Clinton probably would've gotten over 50% both times if it weren't for Perot. The only reason why anyone got over 50% of the vote this year is that there were no viable third party candidates.

For one, that's impossible to know, as we never had a full election poll with only Clinton and Bush I. But more importantly, where he would have or not doesn't really matter- Those Perot voters voted against Clinton being President, they wanted Ross Perot to be president. The great majority of the country did not give Clinton their vote.

It's not like there weren't any third party candidates. There were plenty of alternatives, such as Peroutka or Badnarik that people could have cast votes for instead. But they didn't, and a majority of the country gave their ballots to George W. Bush.

	13-11-2004 21:50									#63
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Of that list, Bill Nelson, Ben Nelson, Stabenow, and Dayton look vulnerable.

There is also one possibly vulnerable Dem in a still solid blue territory. Maria Cantwell (WA).

In any event, the GOP has to defend seats in 3 blue states out of 15 seats total (PA, RI, ME) while the Dems have to defend seats in 5 red states out of 17 seats total (NM, WV, ND, FL, NE).

	13-11-2004 21:59									#64
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quote: For one, that's impossible to know, as we never had a full election poll with only Clinton and Bush I. But more importantly, where he would have or not doesn't really matter- Those Perot voters voted against Clinton being President, they wanted Ross Perot to be president. The great majority of the country did not give Clinton their vote. It's not like there weren't any third party candidates. There were plenty of alternatives, such as Peroutka or Badnarik that people could have cast votes for instead. But they didn't, and a majority of the country gave their ballots to George W. Bush.

1. As I said, Perot voters went for Clinton over Bush something like 2-1 when he temporarily dropped out. It's impossible to know what would've happened (it's impossible to know anything, if you want to be pedantic), but as I said, it's very probable that Clinton would've gotten well over 50% without Perot.

2. Incumbent races are referendums on the incumbent. The Perot voters didn't vote against Clinton, rather they voted against Bush. So the vast majority of the country voted against Bush being President.

3. There are third party candidates in every election. Sometimes they're viable, sometimes they're not. This year, they were not. When they are not, someone will get at least 50%, and 1.5% more ain't enormous.

4. Again, Dear Leader won by the smallest margin an incumbent has won by since Wilson. Not a mandate. Period.

	13-11-2004 22:25									#65
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So your saying that 60 million voters don't create a mandate? Is that what your saying?

I'm still a bit unclear on your position.

	13-11-2004 22:30									#66
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quote: Of that list, Bill Nelson, Ben Nelson, Stabenow, and Dayton look vulnerable. There is also one possibly vulnerable Dem in a still solid blue territory. Maria Cantwell (WA). In any event, the GOP has to defend seats in 3 blue states out of 15 seats total (PA, RI, ME) while the Dems have to defend seats in 5 red states out of 17 seats total (NM, WV, ND, FL, NE).

But there are vulnerable Republicans in red states. Harold Ford Jr. could mount a strong challenge to Frist in TN. Mark Warner could challenge Allen in VA. Ensign may be vulnerable in NV given the right Dem, and Kyl in AZ had promised to resign, and the race could be competitive if he does.

Chaffee and Snowe may be vulnerable if they follow Shrub and Frist too closely, but are probably relatively safe.

Santorum, I'm betting, will go down. The Dems just need to find the right guy to beat him (Hoeffel might not be too bad a candidate).

On the Dem side:

Byrd has his seat as long as he wants it, and even if he doesn't the Dems would probably keep the seat (local party is strong - see their Gov. race). Cantwell will win easily (Murray, a weaker candidate, won by a fair margin). And I don't see a credible threat in NM.

Conrad may be vulnerable in ND, and Bill Nelson in FL given the right guys. Dayton in MN and Stablenow in MI will have tough races too.

And I'm guessing that Ben Nelson will lose in NE.

	13-11-2004 22:31									#67
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quote: So your saying that 60 million voters don't create a mandate? Is that what your saying? I'm still a bit unclear on your position.

Yes, just like 57 million voters don't create a mandate.

	13-11-2004 22:36									#68
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: So your saying that 60 million voters don't create a mandate? Is that what your saying? I'm still a bit unclear on your position. Yes, just like 57 million voters don't create a mandate.

The mandate's kinda hard to make good on if you lost.........

	13-11-2004 22:42									#69
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Point was, a large number of votes is not the same thing as a mandate. A lot of voters did vote for Dear Leader, but a lot voted against him too.

	13-11-2004 22:44									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo But there are vulnerable Republicans in red states. Harold Ford Jr. could mount a strong challenge to Frist in TN.

ZERO chance of that. Frist would absolutely embarass Ford at the polls. The only chance that Ford has at that seat is if Frist doesn't persue another term in order to make his run at the Presidentcy. The Ford family's power dwindles mightily once you get outside of Memphis and is virtually non-existent past Jackson. You really need to brush up on Tennessee politics before making a claim like that one.

	13-11-2004 22:46									#71
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Point was, a large number of votes is not the same thing as a mandate. A lot of voters did vote for Dear Leader, but a lot voted against him too.

So 60 million people...and the first president since Reagan to get over 50% of the vote means Kerry's agenda is the one we should persue?

	13-11-2004 22:52									#72
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28 Govenorships

55 Senators

231 Representatives

THE PRESIDENT


Yep...No mandate from the American people yet.

	13-11-2004 22:53									#73
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The question of mandate isn't whether we should pursue a strongly republican agenda or a strongly democratic agenda. It is whether the Republican's should work with Democrats, and adopt a moderate centrist position, or whether they should actively pursue a hardline conservative agenda, appoint only arch-conservative judges, institute a national sales tax, and generally tell the Democrats to go cry in a corner.

	13-11-2004 22:56									#74
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quote: So 60 million people...and the first president since Reagan to get over 50% of the vote means Kerry's agenda is the one we should persue?

Again, no viable third parties mean someone gets more than 50%. And 57 million voted against him.

I didn't say there was a mandate, either for Kerry or for Bush. Basically, there's a divided electorate. The only reason why it's not even closer is that the Kerry campaign focused GOTV only in the swing states (as opposed to the Bush campaign), so turnout in New York and California was low.

quote: ZERO chance of that. Frist would absolutely embarass Ford at the polls. The only chance that Ford has at that seat is if Frist doesn't persue another term in order to make his run at the Presidentcy. The Ford family's power dwindles mightily once you get outside of Memphis and is virtually non-existent past Jackson. You really need to brush up on Tennessee politics before making a claim like that one.

Who said that I thought he'd win on the basis of his name (my understanding, is that it's a handicap more than anything else)?

	13-11-2004 23:07									#75
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Bush math
-------------------------
49% = mandate
50% = landslide
51% = blowout
52% = declared president for life

	13-11-2004 23:49									#76
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It's like this:

The Dems ran a race against the most reviled President since Richard Nixon, and possibly even more reviled than Tricky Dick. At least Nixon did not have:

1. A major motion picture

and/or

2. A major rock tour featuring some of the worlds biggest acts

actively pushing for his defeat.

So Bush, by all accounts, should've lost. It might've been close, but he still shouldn't have won.

But he did. More importantly, he even proved to have coattails, something that NOBODY was predicting even as late as 10:00pm Election day.

See, it's not the margin of victory that gives Bush the mandate, it's the fact that he and his party blew the opposition out of the water all across the board, against every expectation that gives him the mandate.

	14-11-2004 00:08									#77
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What coat-tails? The Senate losses were all in red states (with FL, SD, KY all being very close). That only proves that the Dems didn't have a nationwide GOTV operation, and this hurt them badly. It's telling that in the battleground states where there were Senate races, CO, and FL, the Dems won in the former (even picking up some Congressional seats and the legislature), and lost by a razor thin margin in the latter.

As for musicians or Micheal Moore, honestly, who was persuaded by them?

	14-11-2004 00:29									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo What coat-tails? The Senate losses were all in red states (with FL, SD, KY all being very close). That only proves that the Dems didn't have a nationwide GOTV operation, and this hurt them badly. It's telling that in the battleground states where there were Senate races, CO, and FL, the Dems won in the former (even picking up some Congressional seats and the legislature), and lost by a razor thin margin in the latter. As for musicians or Micheal Moore, honestly, who was persuaded by them?

You have got to be kidding me. That's rich, Ramo.

I'll quote that the next time you or your co-ideologues start ranting about Limbaugh or Coulter, OK?

Coattails, Ramo. From a guy who was expected to lose the election. The Dems got their asses kicked and there's no two ways about it.

	14-11-2004 00:41									#79
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The Dems did get their asses kicked, but not because everyone loves Dear Leader and his agenda. You don't have a mandate when you barely win as an incumbent on a campaign based on character assassination and fearmongering.

As for Limbaugh, etc., they have media networks dedicated to their propaganda on air everyday (as opposed to a movie that one watches for two hours). The closest thing to that Moore et al. have is Air America (which is crap as well, if you want my opinion), and it's pretty insignificant compared to rightwing talk radio and Fox News.

	14-11-2004 00:49									#80
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo The Dems did get their asses kicked, but not because everyone loves Dear Leader and his agenda. You don't have a mandate when you barely win as an incumbent on a campaign based on character assassination and fearmongering. As for Limbaugh, etc., they have media networks dedicated to their propaganda on air everyday (as opposed to a movie that one watches for two hours). The closest thing to that Moore et al. have is Air America (which is crap as well, if you want my opinion), and it's pretty insignificant compared to rightwing talk radio and Fox News.

So...No character assassination by Kerry? No fearmongereing by the democrat?

And as for talk radio...The reason that the conservatives have it is because that's what people want to listen to and how most feel and the reason the dems don't have that kind of coverage is because America doesn't like their message .

John T is right. If the dems can't beat a President that they full blast villified for the last two years, then how do they expect to beat a popular Republican.

Hey Dems...It's your message, not your tactics that is causing you to loose power . When ya get this one, then maybe we can start to have a viable two party system again. As long as you keep trying to come up with excuses then you will continue to loose the elections.

	14-11-2004 00:52									#81
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Do we really have to have endless debates about mythical "mandates"? I'm sure believer-boy Bush's got the Mandate of Heaven too. What difference does it make? He's not gonna turn further to the right because he should do it - he may do it if he feels he'd get away with it.

	14-11-2004 01:01									#82
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quote: So...No character assassination by Kerry? No fearmongereing by the democrat?

Where did I say that? It's certainly the case, though, that the Bush campaign did that far more.

Anyways, the point is that incumbents generally run on their records, challengers run against the incumbents' records. Dear Leader's record was so pitiful, all he could run on was character assassination and fearmongering. Unfortunatley, he (barely) won, but the point is that he won doesn't mean he has some sort of mandate.

quote: And as for talk radio...The reason that the conservatives have it is because that's what people want to listen to and how most feel and the reason the dems don't have that kind of coverage is because America doesn't like their message .

I guess that newspapers heavily endorsed Kerry because literate Americans heavily support Kerry.

quote: John T is right. If the dems can't beat a President that they full blast villified for the last two years, then how do they expect to beat a popular Republican. Hey Dems...It's your message, not your tactics that is causing you to loose power . When ya get this one, then maybe we can start to have a viable two party system again. As long as you keep trying to come up with excuses then you will continue to loose the elections.

I actually generally agree with that. But, the problem is not that Democratic positions are too left-wing (Americans by and large agree with Democratic positions). Rather, their positions are poorly articulated, and the debate is framed in the Republicans' favor. As the linguist George Lakoff has written so much about. Obama is an example of how to get out of that rut.

But the reason why Kerry barely lost the popular vote, rather than barely won the popular vote is largely due to GOTV. New York, for instance, had one of the lowest voter turnouts in the country.

	14-11-2004 01:12									#83
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi 57% of the country in 92 voted for someone other then Bill Clinton to be President. That's not a mandate at all.

There was a viable third party in 92 also, so the numbers are skewed. duh. Even so, the margin of victory over his oppenent was much greater.

	14-11-2004 01:16									#84
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: So...No character assassination by Kerry? No fearmongereing by the democrat? Where did I say that? It's certainly the case, though, that the Bush campaign did that far more.

Funny...I never saw Kerry do anything else. He kept talking about his big plans, but never revealed them. Bush, OTOH, actually talked about specific proposals...and of course Kerry's record.

quote: I guess that newspapers heavily endorsed Kerry because literate Americans heavily support Kerry.

Most, not all, newspapers are the only game in town. Very few places does a newspaper have to compete for its business. The declining circulation they are experiencing well addresses their misunderstanding of the electorate as well. Radio, OTOH, actually has to compete for its market share...and the fact that conservative radio's audience is growing speaks well to how it does understand the electorate.

quote: I actually generally agree with that.

At last we find a small bit of common ground. Perhaps Repugs and dems can work together?

quote: But, the problem is not that Democratic positions are too left-wing (Americans by and large agree with Democratic positions). Rather, their positions are poorly articulated, and the debate is framed in the Republicans' favor. As the linguist George Lakoff has written so much about. Obama is an example of how to get out of that rut.

quote: But the reason why Kerry barely lost the popular vote, rather than barely won the popular vote is largely due to GOTV.

Right back to the excuse game.

Are you guys ever gonna learn?

	14-11-2004 01:50									#85
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Bush won because he got the fundie vote out.

	14-11-2004 02:33									#86
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In 1944 The Democrats had 70% plus of BOTH houses of Congress and the precidency.

By 1952 the repugs had climbed back- heck, in 1948 they almost won the precidency.

When the republicans create a majority akin to the one Democrats once had, THEN they can crow. They aren't even close.

	14-11-2004 03:13									#87
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quote: Originally posted by Ming

It would make your knee-jerk, conservative, wet dream come true if the Democratic Party became dysfunctional, eh?

	14-11-2004 04:37									#88
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Being a moderate isn't the "manly" thing to do anymore. Nowadays the more extreme you are, the more electable you appear to be. Great for the extremists, but downright scary for a nation's future. About the only time moderates are ever used is to be trotted out at the national conventions and on special occasions, to show how "diverse" any given party is.

Insofar as I'm concerned, the moderate should form their own party and act as a the fulcrum between the nutcases on the right and the left. We'll be boring and call it the "Rationalist Party," except its acronymn (RAT) doesn't exactly click, does it? Oh, well. Back to the drawing board while the GOP and Dem partisans fiddle as Washington burns.

Gatekeeper

	14-11-2004 06:04									#89
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quote: Of that list, Bill Nelson, Ben Nelson, Stabenow, and Dayton look vulnerable.

Ben Nelson will probably lose if Mike Johanns (current Republican governor) runs against him. Not sure it would be a big deal though, as Nelson is a DINO...

	14-11-2004 07:54									#90
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quote: Originally posted by GePap In 1944 The Democrats had 70% plus of BOTH houses of Congress and the precidency. By 1952 the repugs had climbed back- heck, in 1948 they almost won the precidency. When the republicans create a majority akin to the one Democrats once had, THEN they can crow. They aren't even close.

Very true. If the GOP hadn't nabbed Ike, then they could have been finished on the national stage. The Dems aren't in danger of extinction...yet. They do need to get more to the center to make a comeback though.