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Boris Godunov is offline Boris Godunov
King
Portland, OR
Aug 2001
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 07:52
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Writing off Kerry now is premature. Plenty wrote off Nixon after 1960, you'll recall. Kerry certainly has the ambition and drive to keep himself in the running. His biggest asset going forward might just be that, having been subjected to the character assassination if this election, he'll be more innoculated against it in 2008. There won't be any surprises at the mud flung at him.

(please note that I am not saying I want Kerry in 2008)

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 08:13
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How often does it happen that someone gets the nomination a second time after losing the first time out?

Drachasor is offline Drachasor
Warlord

Jun 2004
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 08:19
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quote:
Originally posted by chegitz guevara
There aren't significantly more people in 2004 than in 2000. More people just voted.


281 Million vs. 294 million, an increase of about 4.6%

That's not insignificant, though there were a lot more people voting percentage-wise too.

-Drachasor

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 08:22
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quote:
Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Doesn't make his point any less stupid.


What it means, Kuci, is that alot of people voted for Kerry, regardless of the population. Thats the only point.

Koyaanisqatsi is offline Koyaanisqatsi
Prince
of Maine paupers.
May 1999
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 08:23
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#35 Report this post to a moderator
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http://politics.slashdot.org/articl...tid=126&tid=103

Yeah, I know, wrong state, but I still found it interesting (their methods seem a bit shaky, but there does seem to be some curious data there.)

And Ohio was another big e-voting state, wasn't it?

Boris Godunov is offline Boris Godunov
King
Portland, OR
Aug 2001
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 08:34
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quote:
Originally posted by notyoueither
How often does it happen that someone gets the nomination a second time after losing the first time out?


Nixon was the last to do so, disregarding failed primary bids. Before him, Stevenson. It used to be perfectly possible.

I think, had Gore played his cards right, he would have been able to snag the nod this year. After all, many Dems still think of him as the true winner in 2000.

It will be harder for Kerry, though, since Dems moreso than Repubs tend to want to forget their losers as quick as possible. Carter, Mondale and Dukakis weren't remembered fondly by the party.

I think the key to the 57 million vote thing is that over 57 million people voted for a boring placeholder like Kerry who was portrayed by the right as an ultraliberal Massachusetts tax-and-spend weenie. If such a perceived candidate can come so close, it speaks volumes about the weakness of Bush as an incumbent.

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 08:36
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quote:
Originally posted by dv8ed
http://politics.slashdot.org/articl...tid=126&tid=103

Yeah, I know, wrong state, but I still found it interesting (their methods seem a bit shaky, but there does seem to be some curious data there.)

And Ohio was another big e-voting state, wasn't it?


Note sure about how much they were used in 2004 but Ohio e-voting is known, and officially recognized, to have problems:

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/news...se/12-02-03.htm

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
Emperor
Pittsburgh, PA
Apr 1999
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 08:40
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Ya know, it was closer in PA then in OH, so why not have a recount here? Anyway, it is extraordinarily unlikely anything will change.

As far as 2008 goes, the biggest obstacle in the way of Kerry or any other Dem who would like to be President is Hillary Clinton. Her fundraising skill and popularity among the Democratic party makes her the woman to beat for the Dem nomination.

Admiral is offline Admiral
Warlord
of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 11:40
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Hillary Clinton's popularity is overrated. The Right talk about her much more than the Left.

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
Emperor
of Ice Cream
Mar 2000
time: 23:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 12:37
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quote:
Ya know, it was closer in PA then in OH, so why not have a recount here? Anyway, it is extraordinarily unlikely anything will change.


Because Kerry won that state, so obviously that vote was completely fair and above board. Yes, Michigan too.

Duh.

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 18:18
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quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Ya know, it was closer in PA then in OH, so why not have a recount here? Anyway, it is extraordinarily unlikely anything will change.

As far as 2008 goes, the biggest obstacle in the way of Kerry or any other Dem who would like to be President is Hillary Clinton. Her fundraising skill and popularity among the Democratic party makes her the woman to beat for the Dem nomination.


It has nothing to do with the fact that it was close, its the fact that Bush leads by 136,000 while there are still almost 250,000 ballots yet to be counted. Compare that with PA where only about 60,000 prov. ballots were cast. A PA recount would be useless.

And extrodinarliy unlikely isn't accurate at all. I'd put it at about 50/50 at this point. Look at the numbers.

civman2000 is offline civman2000
Emperor
of the Martian Empire
Jun 2001
time: 23:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 18:34
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I hate Bush as much as anyone, but I think it's hypocritical to manipulate the Electoral College to try to beat his popular majority. I think that, not any questions of partisan bias or whatever, is the biggest problem here.

The diplomat is offline The diplomat
King
Terre Haute, IN USA
Sep 1999
time: 23:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 18:37
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#43 Report this post to a moderator
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Kerry lost, let it go.

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 18:44
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quote:
Originally posted by civman2000
I hate Bush as much as anyone, but I think it's hypocritical to manipulate the Electoral College to try to beat his popular majority. I think that, not any questions of partisan bias or whatever, is the biggest problem here.


Bush Vs. Gore 2000 proved that point is irrelevant. And it wouldn't be "manipulating" the vote, thats how our voting system works. Its to prevent "tyranny of the majority", which just happens to work in our favor now.

quote:
Kerry lost, let it go.


No. Bush won't steal another election.

civman2000 is offline civman2000
Emperor
of the Martian Empire
Jun 2001
time: 23:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 18:50
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quote:
Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn


Bush Vs. Gore 2000 proved that point is irrelevant. And it wouldn't be "manipulating" the vote, thats how our voting system works. Its to prevent "tyranny of the majority", which just happens to work in our favor now.



No. Bush won't steal another election.

The problem is, I (and most educated Democrats I know) think the 2000 election and the entire Electoral College is flawed and illegitimate. From our perspective, then, trying to win the Electoral College against the will of the popular vote is hypocritical and generally just plain wrong.

Donegeal is offline Donegeal
King
Apolyton's Resident Law Enforcement Officer. Founder of the Glory of War, Champions of Apolyton!
Jul 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 18:54
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#46 Report this post to a moderator
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at thread.

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 19:33
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quote:
Originally posted by civman2000

The problem is, I (and most educated Democrats I know) think the 2000 election and the entire Electoral College is flawed and illegitimate. From our perspective, then, trying to win the Electoral College against the will of the popular vote is hypocritical and generally just plain wrong.


So you'd rather let Bush win than do the same thing he did to us in 2000? Thats fine, but I disagree. This is how the system works. The electoral college is there for a reason, and that reason is to prevent certain majority groups from deciding the outcome of every election. The aim of US elections is not to win the most popular votes, its to win the most electoral votes. Thats just how it works.

We can try to change the system all we want, but taking the moral highground while costing yourself a victory is just plain stupid. Did Bush do that in 2000, no. Did he win, yes.

Kuciwalker is offline Kuciwalker
Emperor
of Schmooism
Feb 2001
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 19:38
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quote:
Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn
What it means, Kuci, is that alot of people voted for Kerry, regardless of the population. Thats the only point.


So? To compare the total number of voters for Kerry to previous elections is meaningless.

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 19:47
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quote:
Originally posted by Kuciwalker


So? To compare the total number of voters for Kerry to previous elections is meaningless.


You really must enjoy splitting hairs for no reason, don't you?

I'll recap the context of my statement for you, since you clearly didn't read it. MrMitchel and I were discussing whether or not Kerry would fair well in a 2008 primary. I said he would and cited the fact that his record number of votes (2nd highest in American history), as well as record proportions of the American population turning out to vote for him are a couple of reasons to believe that people just might vote for him again. This isn't and has never been an arithematical argument.

Is there a problem?

Ming is offline Ming
Chief Minion

Donate to the Red Cross
Mingapulco - CST
Jan 1970
time: 23:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 19:48 Visit Ming<br><img src=/forums/images/staff-icon.gif>'s homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by civman2000
The problem is, I (and most educated Democrats I know) think the 2000 election and the entire Electoral College is flawed and illegitimate.


You might not like the system... but Illegitimate...



Nahhh... IT'S THE LAW. That is the rules we play by, so to call it Illegitimate is kind of silly and just plain incorrect, and doesn't say much for "educated" Democrats

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 19:53
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quote:
Originally posted by Ming


You might not like the system... but Illegitimate...



Nahhh... IT'S THE LAW. That is the rules we play by, so to call it Illegitimate is kind of silly and just plain incorrect, and doesn't say much for "educated" Democrats



Ming speaks the truth.

And keep in mind folks, I'm not even calling voter fraud. My argument is that Ohio was won by 136,000 votes, yet 250,000 have yet to be counted. This is an irreconcilable mathematical argument. It might not change the outcome, but still, let every vote count.

Ming is offline Ming
Chief Minion

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Mingapulco - CST
Jan 1970
time: 23:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 20:01 Visit Ming<br><img src=/forums/images/staff-icon.gif>'s homepage!
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JimmyCracksCorn... you can't count "spoiled" ballots.
That's the law as well. There are NOT 250,000 votes in Ohio still to be counted

Proteus_MST is offline Proteus_MST
Prince

Dec 2001
time: 06:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 20:03
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#53 Report this post to a moderator
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quote:
Originally posted by dv8ed
http://politics.slashdot.org/articl...tid=126&tid=103

Yeah, I know, wrong state, but I still found it interesting (their methods seem a bit shaky, but there does seem to be some curious data there.)

And Ohio was another big e-voting state, wasn't it?


Here´s the link to the research paper itself,
along with the data used in Excel and SPSS-Format

http://ucdata.berkeley.edu/new_web/VOTE2004/index.html

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 20:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Ming
JimmyCracksCorn... you can't count "spoiled" ballots.
That's the law as well. There are NOT 250,000 votes in Ohio still to be counted


You're right. What I meant was that there's 93,000 undervotes.

So, 250,000 it is

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 20:24
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A bit on undervotes:

quote:
Ohio, whose 20 electoral votes were based on a margin of 2 percent in the vote, has other problems tonight. The state reports 92,000 presidential votes did not count. Ranging from votes improperly cast to votes improperly counted. And in Cuyahoga County, that is greater Cleveland, the official records of 29 different voting precincts show more votes than registered voters to a total of 93,000 extra votes in that county alone.


quote:
As an example, in Fairview Park, 12 miles west of Cleveland, 13,342 voters were registered. 18,472 votes were cast. None of this even addresses the story we told you about last week in the town of Gahanna outside Columbus, Ohio. There in a district with just 800 voters, a voting machine added 3,893 votes to Mr. Bush‘s total.


http://reprints.msnbc.com/id/6442857/

Edit: And this is MSNBC people, not moveon.org or anything like that.

Edit: This is why a recount is so important. These voting irregularities will only be rectified in an official recount.

Edit: Huge "swaths of red" my ass. This is a more accurate representation. We are a purple nation, truly divided.



source

Last edited by JimmyCracksCorn on 21-11-2004 at 20:38

Kuciwalker is offline Kuciwalker
Emperor
of Schmooism
Feb 2001
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 20:58
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quote:
We are a purple nation, truly divided.


Don't try to infect us with your gayness!

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 21:03
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A new (video) message from John Kerry!!

http://www.johnkerry.com/petition/everychild.php (the video is at the top)

Some commentary on it from Keith Olbermann (MSNBC):

quote:
But the video is just plain weird. The phrasing of the start of the relevant passage—“Regardless of the outcome of this election”— is open to the same kind of parsing and confusion usually reserved for the latest release from Osama Bin Laden. Those seven words are extra-temporal; they are tense-free. In them he could be describing an election long-since decided, or one whose outcome is still in doubt.


quote:
It has the vague feel of deliberate ambiguity, as if Kerry is saying to those who are plagued by doubts about the vote just seventeen days ago, that he agrees with them, but they shouldn’t tell anybody.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/%3Cbr%20/%3E

Keith's Blog (The only mainstream journalist to actually pay attention to this recount and the possibility of an election turnover)

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
Emperor
Pittsburgh, PA
Apr 1999
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 21:15
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First off, undervoted ballots don't count, and there aren't enough provisional ballots to likely make a difference.

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 21:16
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quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
First off, undervoted ballots don't count, and there aren't enough provisional ballots to likely make a difference.


Undervotes are votes that didn't get counted, or that went to the wrong person. Hence what a recount sets out to resolve.

And that makes 250,000 votes up in the air. That could certainly make a difference.

Lincoln is offline Lincoln
King
TN
Jul 2000
time: 05:18
  Old Post 21-11-2004 21:18 Visit Lincoln's homepage!
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At the risk of infringing on a slogan that may be copywrited I should say that Bush has the moral authority to insist on a recount because he won the popular vote...

 
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