21-11-2004 06:51									#1
	You may now remove your tinfoil hats: Its on, *****! (Official Recount Thread) Full PM-box? Change here!

I don't know if the lack of attention on this is because you guys are sick of the election or what, but I'm sure as hell not. This is the official recount thread (different from the other ones, Ming).

This election is just about to get good... and its not over yet. Its not even close to being over yet. People who've seriously doubted the election results announced on Nov. 3rd have been labeled as conspiracy theorists and "sore loser liberals". But now its gone beyond that and there is a legitimate case for challenging the election results, and the legal paperwork is already being filed for it to actually happen.

quote: The process has started! To make sure that there is enough time for a full and fair recount, attorneys for David Cobb and Michael Badnarik on November 17th sent formal letters via overnight delivery to all 88 Ohio county election directors, asking them to prepare for the recount. The next step? A formal demand for a recount is being delivered on November 19th to the county elections directors and Secretary of State Blackwell, along with a bond for $113,600 to cover the cost of $10 per precinct needed to request a recount.

source


Lets recap what we know so far. Given the current electoral situation as of Nov. 2, the President cannot win re-election without the State of Ohio. The State of Ohio is still counting its ballots, which it won't finish until Dec. 1st at the LATEST ( source ). Currently, the President leads Ohio by around 136,000 votes. However, there are 155,000 votes uncounted as povisional ballots. 81 percent of these ballots have been deemed officially valid (source), and if history is any indicator (and it usually is), a large majority of Provisional ballots cast in Ohio in 2000 went to Gore, which would mean that its not unsafe to assume that in 2004 it will be the same. These provisional ballots alone cannot, at least short of a miracle, win Kerry the election. But people tend to forget about the other 92,000 "undervote" ballots(source), of which are largely cast by democratic supporters (source 1, 2).

Do the math folks, with 90% of the 81% Prov. ballots in Ohio, Bush's lead gets cut from 135,000 to around only 30-40 thousand. Then add in the undervote ballots (which were cast by about 50+% black voters) and the election either gets insanely close (like Florida 2000) or Kerry wins.

So what do you guys think is going to happen? And before all you Bush supporters shrug this off, remember... its going to happen now. I'm not saying Kerry will win, but its definately going to get down to the wire again.

Discuss

Relevant links:
Letter from Ohio SOS (dated yesterday, Nov. 19)
David Cobb and Michael Badnarik Official Recount Page
This Election is Not Over (for all the Math)
Democrats Take Up Fight Over Ohio Ballots
Voter Suppression Challenged by Ohioans, Allies
Democrats Take up Fight Over Ballots

More to come...

Edit: I meant undervotes, not spoiled ballots

	21-11-2004 06:53									#2
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how come no one has posted on apolyton yet about the pacers/pistons brawl?

	21-11-2004 06:57									#3
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Pacers-Pistons Brawl

	21-11-2004 07:00									#4
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Hundred nil!

	21-11-2004 07:00									#5
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ah... it was on the second page...

	21-11-2004 07:02									#6
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It was hard to find, what with the confusing thread title and all...

	21-11-2004 07:03									#7
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And notice Kerry's website minus the concession speech as the first page. Coincidence? I don't think so.

http://www.johnkerry.com/

	21-11-2004 07:04									#8
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No.

It's so terrible that Bush won, but the chance has passed. Short of the discovery and media reportation of massive election fraud in all 50 states, there will be no changing who we have for President over the next 4 years.

However--yes, I would be interested in knowing the final tally, be it 150,000 for Bush, 75,000 for Bush, or 6 for Bush...let's prepare our sights for 2006.

	21-11-2004 07:06									#9
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jimmy:

what? the concession speech is still on there.

	21-11-2004 07:09									#10
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell However--yes, I would be interested in knowing the final tally, be it 150,000 for Bush, 75,000 for Bush, or 6 for Bush...let's prepare our sights for 2006.

We still can, but this election isn't over yet. This is why democrats always lose... they give up. Republicans never give up, thats how they win.

Albert:

It used to have the entire speech on the front page, then you clicked "continue" to get the the page you see now. Now the speech is just a small link.

Why would he change it?

	21-11-2004 07:13									#11
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No, Jimmy. Kerry conceded. He'd in my own view be an ass to take back his concession.

Are you accusing Democrats of being civil and decent campaigners? We don't need to drop to Repug levels to win, anyways.

	21-11-2004 07:19									#12
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell No, Jimmy. Kerry conceded. He'd in my own view be an ass to take back his concession.

His concession means nothing if he actually wins the vote. Legally, he would be the President-Elect.

	21-11-2004 07:19									#13
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1. Uh, the US economy is about to die a horrible death because of Reagan's sins. I'd rather have Bush take the fall.

2. Out of curiosity, are Cobb and Badnarik Democratic pawns right now, or is this a personal initiative on their part? I guess we'll never know.

	21-11-2004 07:22									#14
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quote: Originally posted by St Leo 1. Uh, the US economy is about to die a horrible death because of Reagan's sins. I'd rather have Bush take the fall.

I'm surprised you haven't blamed slavery and AIDS on Reagan.

	21-11-2004 07:22									#15
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quote: Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn Why would he change it?

Kerry has $45 million left over from his primary warchest. He's also indicated he is planning on trying again in 2008. So his immediate sights are set on who gets the DNC Chair, as he wants an ally who could back him in 4 years. That's why Kerry is gunning for Tom Vilsak of IA, as opposed to Howard Dean.

So perhaps Kerry's team modified the website because they want to take focus off the election loss and instead focus on the future of the party.

	21-11-2004 07:23									#16
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quote: Originally posted by St Leo 2. Out of curiosity, are Cobb and Badnarik Democratic pawns right now, or is this a personal initiative on their part? I guess we'll never know.

Well, if you look at their agendas, I'm sure they'd rather have anyone in the oval office besides Bush. Plus, since Kerry doesn't want to push this re-election thing himself (to avoid looking like Gore did in 2000), Cobb and Badnarik are the only ones who can really pull this off, aside from some independently wealthy private citizen (who all vote Bush anyways).

But it wouldn't surprise me if they're working together behind the scenes either.

	21-11-2004 07:24									#17
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Kerry will not win a single 2008 primary.

	21-11-2004 07:24									#18
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Nader's pushing for recounts, too. It's more for publicity for the 3rd parties. They want to be seen as the ones fighting to make sure every vote is counted and to bring to light election fraud of both major parties.

	21-11-2004 07:25									#19
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell Kerry will not win a single 2008 primary.

They said the same thing about him in December 2003 for 2004.

	21-11-2004 07:25									#20
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I'm surprised you haven't blamed slavery and AIDS on Reagan.

Did you know that Reagan travelled back in time to the enteenth century and started the first Portuguese slave transportation enterprise?

Also, while working for the McCarthy Inquisitionary Committee, Reagan moonlighted as a biological warfare researcher in the top secret Pasadena labs of the US government. He personally distilled the first virile injection of HIV.

	21-11-2004 07:27									#21
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Seriously, though, Thatcher also deserves her share of the blame.

	21-11-2004 07:27									#22
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quote: They said the same thing about him in December 2003 for 2004.

Yes, but 2003 Kerry wasn't the same Kerry that lost an election to a retarded drunken chimp.

	21-11-2004 07:29									#23
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell Yes, but 2003 Kerry wasn't the same Kerry that lost an election to a retarded drunken chimp.

He lost by more votes than any other President (excluding Bush 2004) has ever won by. Thats no small thing.

	21-11-2004 07:31									#24
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quote: He lost by more votes than any other President (excluding Bush 2004) has ever won by. Thats no small thing.

I think your wording is wrong; you mean he lost by less votes than any President has ever won by? That wouldn't be true either as he lost by 3 million whereas Gore won by 500,000.

I think what you're getting at is Bush had the smallest incumbent reelection margin since 1916, there aren't any other significant records that I've heard of.

	21-11-2004 07:37									#25
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell I think your wording is wrong; you mean he lost by less votes than any President has ever won by? That wouldn't be true either as he lost by 3 million whereas Gore won by 500,000. I think what you're getting at is Bush had the smallest incumbent reelection margin since 1916, there aren't any other significant records that I've heard of.

No. Kerry lost with 57 million votes. In 2000, Bush won with 50 million (Gore got 51 million). Go back every four years and it gets less and less.

In any other election year, Kerry's total would have blown every other winner out of the water. The only candidate to EVER get more than Kerry got was Bush 2004.

	21-11-2004 07:42									#26
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Okay. Let me flip your statement:

Bush won by more votes than any other President has ever won by. That's no small thing.

	21-11-2004 07:43									#27
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell Okay. Let me flip your statement: Bush won by more votes than any other President has ever won by. That's no small thing.

So what? Bush can't run again, Kerry can.

Besides, even the fact that Bush got more popular votes than Kerry is meaningless. Bush vs Gore 2000 proved that.

	21-11-2004 07:50									#28
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quote: Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn No. Kerry lost with 57 million votes. In 2000, Bush won with 50 million (Gore got 51 million). Go back every four years and it gets less and less. In any other election year, Kerry's total would have blown every other winner out of the water. The only candidate to EVER get more than Kerry got was Bush 2004.

That's absolutely retarded. There were less PEOPLE in the US then!

	21-11-2004 07:50									#29
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There aren't significantly more people in 2004 than in 2000. More people just voted.

	21-11-2004 07:51									#30
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Doesn't make his point any less stupid.