23-12-2004 07:16									#211
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quote: Wade Miller signed with Boston for one year, $1.5 million

WOW WOW WOW WOW!

Best pickup of the offseason, especially for the price! Miller is a great pitcher, and I wonder how Theo got him so cheap!

	29-12-2004 22:42									#212
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Holy ****, I just saw that - it is a great signing. Anyway, the reason for bumping the thread:

I found some statistical analysis that has altered my opinion of Edgar Renteria, and makes LoA's stance on ditching Cabrera & signing Renteria less... hysterical:

quote: If You Can't Beat 'em...: Remember who made the last out of the historic 2004 World Series? Of course you do--the same player who was up last in the 1997 Series, Edgar Renteria. Renteria swapped red jerseys this off-season, choosing to leave the Cardinals for a four-year, $40MM deal with Boston, with an $11MM team option for 2009. Renteria has been a little overrated ever since that single in the bottom of the ninth beat the Indians in Game Seven, and his spectacular performance in 2003 (.330/.394/.480, 75.3 VORP best among NL shortstops) reinforced that notion. The fact is, Renteria's established level of performance is much closer to his 2004 line of .287/.327/.401, which was good for a 27.3 VORP that ranked sixth among NL shortstops. Defensively, by most metrics Renteria comes out a little below average; he was -11 RAA last season, exactly average in 2003 and -14 in '02.

That's from Baseball Prospectus. I was, in fact, wowed by Renteria's 2003 numbers.

-Arrian

	30-12-2004 02:44									#213
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Only problem is that his 2002 numbers were .305/.364/.439, which are very good numbers as well (OPS+ of 116), so it isn't like he only had one good year. And he's still in his prime, with last year being the on off year for him since he turned 26.

	30-12-2004 02:50									#214
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I'm not saying he's garbage. I'm just saying he may not be quite as good as I thought he was. 2003 was the year that stuck out in my mind when I was thinking about his stats, and the point is that it's a bad idea to pick a career as a way of evaluating a player.

Take Derek Jeter's 1999, for instance. Since then... valueable, sure, but it makes his contract look ludicrous.

-Arrian

	30-12-2004 04:55									#215
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True, but Renteria has 2 solid back-to-back good seasons . This seasons dip doesn't mean he's going to where he was before he hit his prime.

As for Jeter, yes he's never reached the gaudy OPS+ of 161, but has been a solid OPS+ of ~120. And, come one, for the all the merchandise he sold (just by his mug alone), the Yanks were going to overpay him that much anyway.

	30-12-2004 05:20									#216
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Renteria at that price is ridiculous, really. He's a great player, for his position, no doubt, but at 10 per? no way jose.

And wade miller was so cheap because he refused treatment on his arm, or so I'veheard, and the thing has the potential of blowing at any time. Granted, pitchers blow out their arms at any time, but I guess the % is significantly higher.

	30-12-2004 05:28									#217
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Well, look at the market. Hell, Orlando Cabrera, who has never had as good a year as Renteria's last three, is making $8 mil a year. The problem is that people are overpaying this offseason and that drives the price of everyone up.

	11-01-2005 01:53									#218
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Btw, the BIG signing of late is Carlos Beltan to the Mets. So the Mets have picked up Pedro and Beltran this off season. It can go two ways. Either they both play to their potential and the Mets make the playoffs, or they both break down and the Mets suck, once again. I think the former is more apt than the latter... especially for the upcoming year.

	11-01-2005 02:49									#219
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Typical Mets. Sign a couple of big-ticket free agents and hope that will do the job. And yes, I'm cognizant of the fact that Steinbrenner thinks this way too. The difference is that the Mets are usually playing catchup to the Yanks.

Pedro is a big injury/decline risk.

Beltran isn't an injury risk, AFAIK, but I *do* think he's been somewhat overrated. He's definitely a very good player, but he isn't what he's been hyped to be lately.

I'm actually glad the Yankees did not land Beltran. This is *not* a logical reaction - this one's all emotion. Bernie Williams is one of my favorite Yankees. Watching them platoon him with Kenny ****ing Lofton last year was painful. What a travesty. If the Yanks had gotten Beltran... well, there is a replacement of star caliber - and it would be more understandable to relegate Bernie and his declining skills to the role of part-timer. I'd actually rather not see that yet, even if it means a weaker team. Strange but true.

-Arrian

	11-01-2005 02:55									#220
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Yes, but these big-ticket free agents actually fit in well with a youth movement. Reyes will probably be much better back at SS. Wright is going to be a S-T-U-D.

Beltran is overpaid, but hasn't even hit his prime yet. He had a 136 in OPS+ last year (increasing for the 3rd straight year). Pedro had a down year last year (which means he was better than 90% of the league), but he moves to the NL and a pitcher's park, which definetly helps that ERA. And he pitched as many innings last year as Glavine did (and he lead the Mets in innings pitched). High risk? Sure, but high reward as well.

And, Beltran and Pedro are going to make the Mets a TON in merchandising.

	11-01-2005 03:03									#221
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Re: Beltran's prime. You never REALLY know when a player's prime is until after it has passed. Some guys peak earlier, some later. It's usually in the late 20's, but sometimes it's the mid-20's, or even early 30s. Or, if you're Barry Bonds and have some special cream... well, we won't go there.

I don't know enough about the Mets' young players (Wright, Reyes) to comment intelligently, other than to say that no prospect is a sure thing, and sometimes young players will tons of promise flame out. That aside, the Mets appear to have actually developed some prospects of real worth. Combined with selective free agent signings and perhaps they can re-create the 1998-2000 Yankees style ballclub. We'll see.

No argument about the marketing potential of Pedro and Beltran (particularly Pedro). Pedro's skills... well, sure, his ERA will drop because of the NL, but that's a relative factor (the pitchers he faces will also generally have lower ERAs). I do expect him to have a better year than last year if he remains generally healthy, but I do not expect a return of the Pedro of old (the guy who was dominant nearly every time he took the mound).

-Arrian

	11-01-2005 03:19									#222
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quote: other than to say that no prospect is a sure thing

Well that usually applies to pitching prospects (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect, etc). A lot of the time, AAA stats of hitting prospects can correlate well to their major stats. Of course that isn't 100%, but chances are good they will be good.

quote: You never REALLY know when a player's prime is until after it has passed.

Perhaps, but for a vast majority of players, the prime is in the late 20s.

quote: I do not expect a return of the Pedro of old (the guy who was dominant nearly every time he took the mound).

You mean like 2002?

He had an ERA+ of 212 a year ago, which is amazing level. The year before he was at 196 (still amazing).

	11-01-2005 03:40									#223
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Yes, I'd say 2002 was the last year of the "old Pedro."

I think that, if healthy, he will still be a very valueable pitcher (top 5 or 10 in the league). I think his brilliance, however, will be more intermittent. I expect something between 2003 and 2002.

-Arrian

	11-01-2005 08:27									#224
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Well one down year may be evidence of a decline, or may not. Remember, when Clemens was said to be washed up after some less than amazing years?

	11-01-2005 09:07									#225
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Way to go Mets!

Single handedly devastate the Astros (bye bye rocket!) AND insure that you're team won't be a contender for at least another 3 years.

Wake me when Beltran hits 40 homeruns with half his games in Shea!

	11-01-2005 09:38									#226
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All he's gotta do is hit 30 and steal 40, which is definetly do-able. Makes him a good #3 behind Reyes and Matsui. Or maybe they put him #2 behind Reyes, then have Wright behind him and Piazza, of course, is cleanup.

	11-01-2005 09:41									#227
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7 years 119 mil. no trade clause.

For 30 hrs 40 steals? No thanks. You can plug three holes with that, and plug them well.
The pond scum need more than Beltran to be contenders.

	11-01-2005 09:45									#228
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Pedro and Beltan, along with their young stars (Reyes and Wright) and the talent they have there already (Piazza and Cameron) are going to make the contenders this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they take the Wild Card or, even, win the East.

And, there is talk that the Mets are close to a deal with Delgado.

	11-01-2005 09:48									#229
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Come on, we both know they can't win the east with the Atlanta still breathing.

Wild card? Maybe. Piazza and Cameron are not what they used to be. Delgado just adds to the bloat, unless they can get him cut rate.

	11-01-2005 09:54									#230
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Of course they can. Atlanta has STILL not replaced J.D. Drew, who was the best offensive player they had. The replacement for him was sent to Oakland (Charles Thomas). Their offense is the pits now.

As long as Piazza plays Catcher, his offense is great. Cameron is an above average CF, whose stats were not much different than he was in Seattle and is still an excellent defensive Outfielder, and he makes less than $5 mill a year. Delgado will round out the infield nicely.

They can definetly afford it, ESPECIALLY when Pedro, Beltran, and perhaps Delgado lead to a lucrative TV deal with the Latin interest shooting through the roof. Basically those 2 (3) will make the Mets more money than they spent for them.

Remember also, the Mets were in it in the 1st half of the season. Then Howe made some mind baffling moves, and the Mets died.

	11-01-2005 18:26									#231
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Atlanta will win their division again, going back to their old "pitching uber alles" formula.

Big talk in Chicago today is that the Sosa-for-Cliff Floyd talks will start in earnest this week, with Minaya and Hendry scheduled for multiple meetings.

	11-01-2005 19:36									#232
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quote: Originally posted by -Jrabbit Atlanta will win their division again, going back to their old "pitching uber alles" formula.

Sad, but probably true. I'm thoroughly disgusted by the Phillies this off season. Atlanta, the Mets and Florida all improve their rotations while the Phillies sign Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle to supplement the mediocrity they are left with now that Milton and Millwood are gone. Ugh. At least we can count on something to go wrong with Pedro and Beltran (the curse of the Mets big money contracts will strike again), so my prediction for the NL East:

Atlanta (I'm really going out on a limb here, huh)
Florida
Phillies
NY Mets
DC

	11-01-2005 19:38									#233
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I don't think Lieber is that bad a pickup. I'd rather the Yanks had kept him. He's not an ace, to be sure, but he was solid in the 1/2 half and the playoffs - when his armstrength came back.

-Arrian

	11-01-2005 19:58									#234
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel 7 years 119 mil. no trade clause. For 30 hrs 40 steals? No thanks. You can plug three holes with that, and plug them well. The pond scum need more than Beltran to be contenders.

So true... While Beltran was probably the best player available, his numbers don't justify the contract. He's not worth that kind of money... (not many players are)
As usual, the Mets overpaid a big name player just so they could try to get people to pay attention to them and not the Yankees They will be lucky to finish third in that division. The Mets still have tons of holes to fill...

	12-01-2005 00:27									#235
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Btw, Beltran makes LESS than Jeter per year. I think I'd take Beltran . And he makes almost equivalent to what Shawn Green is making. I'd take Beltran. His price isn't overly outrageous and he'll make more money for the Mets than his contract is worth, no doubt. He'll probably be the key piece in the machine that gets the Mets their own station (with all the revenues that come from that). That isn't even counting merchandising.

	12-01-2005 00:32									#236
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Part of evaluating Jeter's contract is that we have some hindsight - he's several years into that contract. At the time it was signed, given Jeter's recent performance + the market at that time, the contract was probably no more crazy than Beltran's current contract.

However, since then there has been a market correction (which is certainly eroding this offseason) *and* Jeter's performance has declined somewhat, two factors which conspire to make him look even more overpaid than he looked when the contract was new.

However, that doesn't make Beltran's contract a good deal.

-Arrian

	12-01-2005 00:35									#237
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Like said, depends on what happens. I fully expect Beltran's presence will get the Mets their station. And he'll sell a LOT of jersies. With all the benefits coming from Beltran it make make a ton of economic sense.

	12-01-2005 07:37									#238
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And the Mets make a real good 'smaller' move:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire...=mlb&id=1962041

quote: NEW YORK -- While the Mets awaited word on where they stood in the Carlos Beltran negotiations, they reached a preliminary agreement Friday on a one-year contract with infielder Miguel Cairo. His deal, worth about $900,000, won't be finalized until after he passes a physical, a baseball official familiar with the talks said on condition of anonymity. Cairo, 30, was a surprise with the Yankees last season. He began the year platooning with Enrique Wilson, then became the regular starter during the second half of the season and wound up hitting .292 with six homers, 42 RBIss and 11 steals. He made $1.05 million, including $150,000 in performance bonuses based on plate appearances, and sought a two-year deal from the Yankees. Not wanting to give him that, New York instead decided on Dec. 7 to agree to a $4 million, two-year contract with Tony Womack, who started at second base last year with the St. Louis Cardinals. Cairo was signed as a backup by the Mets, who have Jose Reyes at shortstop and Kaz Matsui at second base. Both the Mets and Houston Astros have actively pursued Beltran this week, and the Chicago Cubs may be in the hunt. The 27-year-old center fielder, seeking a deal worth more than $100 million, faces a Saturday midnight deadline to re-sign with the Astros. After that, Houston could not sign him until May 1. His agent, Scott Boras, wouldn't give an indication of where negotiations stood. "We're still talking and having a dialogue with all the involved teams," he said. Asked whether there would be a decision Saturday, his response was just as vague. "I don't know. It could," he said. "And then again, there's something that may take a while longer."

Cairo was great for the Yanks! He'll be a wonderful backup for Matsui and Reyes. Great role player. I'm very happy to get him for that little.

	12-01-2005 09:09									#239
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THAT is a good signing, esp at that price.

I would rather have him than Womack, whose year was a pure fluke.

	12-01-2005 09:13									#240
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It's bad when the player's fluke year is an OPS+ of 93 .