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Grigor
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Oberlin, Ohio
Jan 2000 time: 00:17
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OK, our team is complete. I think we will need this thread so that we are not tempted to read the other team's posts.
I suppose the first thing to do now is to pick which continuation to use.
SG(1) has a great start with 4 cities, (including the capital at size 2 because he intelligently built the size 1 settler before popping the hut for a tribe), 34g, a roaded silk, and an extra tech. But the downside is that the mongols have already discovered us (with a frigate!?) and are hostile already. And also, pottery is not on the way to Trade.
Grigor has 4 weaker cities all on rivers, less gold, a roaded silk, and a straight shot to trade. It looks possible to get Monarchy by 2850 for an instant revolution. That neds to be checked.
Debeest has 2 cities, with a settler and another in the oven. Howver, his start won't get us to Monarchy by 2850bc.
Does this look to anybody else like that succession game a couple years ago where the AI wiped out the Apolytoners in about 2500BC the first time? Maybe we should be a little more afraid.
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debeest
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I've just had a moment to look at my teammates' saves, and it's clear that SG's is the best of the three. The cost of my failure to buy a size-1 settler is starkly revealed. I will post about future considerations once I go participate in our Christmas double feature, It's a Wonderful Life/Life of Brian. You should consider it too.
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debeest
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OK, here are my thoughts about the next 1000 years.
We're one beaker short of monarchy, so we can't have an instant revolution. We must remember to revolt in 2900.
The key question is our tech path. If we are alone on an island, as it looks as if we could be, then early wide contact is even more important than I had thought earlier. We must have trade, for Marco Polo, or else mapmaking. I vote for trade because we'll need it ASAP anyway for building Wonders.
The other critical question is survival. Most likely we could easily be wiped out by any other civ, and even a barb invasion could be critically damaging. Other than maintaining friendly relations, the best defense is a good offensive unit, so horseback riding is a high priority. Also, we should try to keep 50-75g on hand at all times in order to be able to keep barbs from sacking our size-1 and size-2 cities.
What to do when we meet other civs? Submit! Give them anything they want. But what if they want us to declare war against civs we're at peace with? Better to refuse, in spite of the risk.
What to build? Settlers and cities. Until we can build offensive units, or Wonder caravans, there's nothing else worth bothering with. Just enough warriors for martial law. Boats would probably have to wait even if we had mapmaking. With monarchy we can go to eight cities without affecting happiness, and more with martial law. For now, while we're still largely isolated, use the time to prepare a strong base. Roads will be particularly important, both for defensive mobility and because our terrain provides for little but food -- and there's a striking lack of specials. (Without Hutfinder, can we locate hidden specials?)
Not everything is against us. Note that we're already "weak," so we've passed one civ already. Tech will be easy to acquire, because we're getting the bonus for being behind. We should be able to catch up fairly fast, especially since the AI usually doesn't build a lot of cities. And it's not necessarily bad that the Mongols have found us -- assuming that we go to Supreme, that's who we'll want to be gifting techs to eventually.
However, I think it would be extremely dangerous to bribe the frigate. Sure, it would get us a powerful unit that we couldn't otherwise build -- but I strongly advise against irritating the already-aggressive hostile power that already knows where we live. And we can only bribe that one, but they can build lots more......
The idea of deliberately pursuing a variety of courses does seem good. If you've only got one shot at a game, you want to follow what seems like the "best" course. But with three different attempts, it's a terrific opportunity to explore new ideas and have a chance to compare different methods over a short but meaningful period. Since it doesn't matter if one or two methods fail, let's go for it. I think if we all pursue roughly the same course, our "best" game won't be that much different from the others anyway; but if we go wild, we could find something that's really good.
Shall we identify three broad paths for the three of us to take in the next turnset?
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Grigor
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Oberlin, Ohio
Jan 2000 time: 00:17
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Great analysis debeest!
I think you should go for the safety first version, because you believe in it, and because we may be wiped out by our bribe-the-frigate strategy. But I would counsel against too many (any!) roads, unless you have excess settlers, which I don't anticipate by 2000BC. We already are connected by the river systm and the roads just slow down city placement. This doesn't seem to be Deity level, so maybe the temple in the capital is unnecessary and should be either a barracks or a granary??
SG and I are going to duke it out for who gets to try the bribe-the-frigate strategy. I have no idea if it is even financially possible. If it is, the decision to go north or south will lead to very different outcomes. Perhaps we can both try and agree to go different directions.
My bribe strategy would have th following tech path:
Writing, HB, Poly, then the trade techs.
Meanwhile, the capital would start on HG after the temple. Hmm, maybe switch production now... Gold is a serious priority, so maximizing arrows and turning down science after Writing is a possibility. I am a little worried about the warlike mongol attitude, but maybe we can buy them off with Monarchy if we avoid unnecessary contact with them (one necessary time will be with the Dip...) Once we have the frigate, we can load it with dips and steal techs from the AI until we get some extra tribes from huts.
As you can see, I am having difficulty forming a cogent and complete plan.
Help will be much appreciated.
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debeest
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I like it. It's three different plans, and that will be fun. (Although it sounds as if both of you are on a writing-and-bribing course, I'm sure it will diverge substantially after that.)
Those who bribe the frigate should be sure to trade with the Mongrels beforehand. And since Peaster indicated that he thinks it's OK to use knowledge from discarded games, the two of you should agree on two different directions to explore.
You're right, Grigor; I want roads, but I probably won't get to them in this turnset.
I'm inclined to convert from temple-building to a barracks. I have a feeling we're going to need to buff up our defenses soon.
One last thought: you guys should prepare ahead of time for the possibility that the frigate wanders off before you can learn how to write and commission a diplomat. Whole new gameplan at that point (I think Stu gets first dibs on trading for magnetism and following the similar path, though).
I'll start on my inoffensive course soon. Advice welcome.
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debeest
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I played it out tonight and felt that I'd done a passable job, until I looked at your spoiler, Stu. My log follows below. (How do you do the spoiler text?)
3000 BC, starting from SG’s game:
2950 Chinese are about to complete Pyramids; we get monarchy (choose horseback next, for three main reasons: for immediate defense, and because I think it won’t be available next time but mapmaking will, and for a second rush-building row; we shouldn’t need bronzeworking at all if we can trade for currency)
2900 Beijing builds Pyramids; Neapolis grows to size 2 and our population reaches 100K; revolution
2850 Mr. Caesar is crowned King
2750 barracks in Caesarea, settlers in Cumae (head south toward whales)
2700 settlers in Neapolis
On further reflection, I realize that once we get horseback riding and then trade for currency (I want to study one tech before trading), trade will come up in the rotation – so we won’t want to choose mapmaking that turn. Oh well.
Also, on further reflection, I conclude that we’re missing too many specials for it to be chance – so I use Hutfinder and verify that in most of the land spots where there should be specials, there is grassland instead. Interesting.
2650 Pompeii size 2
2500 horseback riding (choose mapmaking next – and on further further reflection, I realize that if I had traded for currency BEFORE horseback, then trade WOULD have been available! D-oh!!!); so now I contact the Mongols, and they demand 50 gp, so I pay off almost all our cash, and they won’t trade or ally, so all our planning for currency vs. magnetism is for naught; plus, I determine that we are indeed alone on an island
2400 build Pisae
2350 settlers in Caesarea build Ravenna
2300 settlers in Pompeii; build Hispalis
2200 settlers in Cumae
2150 Mongols begin Hanging Gardens; build Viroconium
2100 just realized we’re not getting any science bonus, and our free techs are counting as learned techs
2050 mapmaking (choose polytheism next rather than bronzeworking – either we’ll get currency elsewhere, or we’ll be a long time getting to trade whether I start on it now or not, but this way we’ll have elephants)
Attachment: wf-2000.sav
This has been downloaded 3 time(s).
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debeest
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I've been comparing the games, based on:
number of techs
number of cities
number of citizens
net shields per turn
net gold and science per turn
excess food per turn
accumulated shields
accumulated beakers and gold
accumulated food
existing units
city improvements
Wonders
AI civs contacted
science bonus/penalty
I realize there are some automatic correlations (e.g., between number of citizens and per-turn accruals). But I'm struck by how similar our current three games are to one another. The real differences are in AI contacts (Stu's game is best), acquired techs (Stu's is best), accumulated shields (I'm very puzzled why Stu's is so much better than Grigor's and mine), and science cost (I'm paying a lot more than you two, apparently because my power rating is lower -- although I'm not sure that's because of a significantly weaker position). Finally, the differences among our techs are important, with Stu apparently having managed somehow to get good techs from the Mongols.
Obviously Stu's game is best again.
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