28-12-2004 04:48									#91
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Not without heavily damaging your own economy in the process.

I'm pretty much sure that Ukraine is not the number 1 trade partner for Russia, so don't worry, we will survive.

And btw,
as for subs, absolutely the same little problem weight heavily on the minds of American military planners.

	28-12-2004 05:00									#92
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quote: Originally posted by Serb Vagabond, about 'defeat', here is the interesting article (sorry, our western friends, it's on monkey language): http://www.pravaya.ru/govern/123/1732 How do you like this?

Very interesting point of view. I even have my spirits up a little bit.

	28-12-2004 05:02									#93
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quote: Originally posted by The Vagabond Very interesting point of view. I even have my spirits up a little bit.

Summary in English? Please?

	28-12-2004 05:02									#94
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It was a problem but the average Soviet nuclear ballistic sub was noiser, had fewer war heads, most had to surface before firing until the 70's, and NATO had the ability to track them while the Soviets had huge difficulties doing the same to western ships. That NATO hydrophoned the who Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap as well as most of the Artic Sea, Barents Sea (at least from Norway to Svalbard) to Greenland, and nearly all of the mid atlantic ridge.

That meant it was much, much harder to get Soviet subs in place where as NATO made a policy of conducting missile drills in even the most sensitive of Soviet seas like the White sea, off Murmansk, in the Sea of Okhotsk, and throught the Artic. NATO made it very clear that it could get all of it's subs very close to the USSR before the Soviets could figure it out while the Soviets really couldn't do the same in the numbers needed.

Thus the Soviets decided to concentrate on land based nuclear missiles. Their theory was they'd just build so many and scatter them over such a wide area that hopefully some would survive even in the event of an enemy first strike.

	28-12-2004 05:04									#95
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Colon and I have a running discussion about Russia's prospects. The discussion began about 3 years ago, when I said that the price of oil would increase inevitably and this would give a respite to Russia so that it could reform itself into a powerful country again. Colon said I was daydreaming.

I couldn't have been more correct about the price of oil, and Russia is transforming its external finances. But Putin is regressing on the important items for Russia's long-term strength. Rather than a top-to-bottom recapitalization of the government's instruments of power, he's screwing around with the centralization of power and creating a Putin dynasty. He's preoccupied with preserving the Russian sphere of influence. What a fvcking waste of time. This crap doesn't strengthen Russia in the long term one iota.

I'm gloomy. Colon is proving me wrong.

Last edited by DanS on 28-12-2004 at 05:11

	28-12-2004 05:09									#96
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Summary in English? Please?

No way. It's a top secret information.
Well, if you need a really short summary- in a long term, Putin won this little game.

	28-12-2004 05:17									#97
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Putin's attacks upon private companies which challenge his power will severly retard Russia's future development. Just as Putin's playing with the legal and political systems to keep both him and his cronies in control will harm Russia's long term stability and development.

	28-12-2004 05:21									#98
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I was talking about Ukraninan game.


Putin
Partiya
Komsomol

	28-12-2004 05:42									#99
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I think many Americans and Euros were inclined to give Russia the benefit of the doubt in its political journeys. However, Russia's political proclivities are reinforcing Western prejudices.

And vice versa. Reinforced Western prejudices reinforce Russia's political proclivities.

quote: Russia's recent political atmosphere feels decidely totalitarian.

Partly, this is an inevitable side effect of overcoming the anarchy and disarray of Yeltsin years. Partly, this is an impression blown out of proportions by western media.

In fact, what Putin is desperately trying to do is to create such a system of political parties and civic organizations that would make political pluralism work for the benefit of Russia, and not for its destruction as often happened in the past.

quote: Under such an atmosphere, the West starts grasping to keep as many countries free as we can and to turn as many countries to freedom while there is still time.

You know, the West started this long before Russia's recent political changes. So what you say here is not very just.

On the contrary, the West's long-standing insatiable thirst for grasping as many countries as possible has not been helping Russia's democracy. Not at all.

quote: I wouldn't be surprised at all to see NATO attempt to extend its hand toward Ukraine in the next couple of years.

I would be surprised if it didn't happen. But please don't pretend that this is a result of Russia's recent behavior. It is a masterplan worked out loooong time ago. What happens now is just a convenient pretext for a decisive move.

	28-12-2004 05:44									#100
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Colon and I have a running discussion about Russia's prospects. The discussion began about 3 years ago, when I said that the price of oil would increase inevitably and this would give a respite to Russia so that it could reform itself into a powerful country again. Colon said I was daydreaming. I couldn't have been more correct about the price of oil, and Russia is transforming its external finances. But Putin is regressing on the important items for Russia's long-term strength. Rather than a top-to-bottom recapitalization of the government's instruments of power, he's screwing around with the centralization of power and creating a Putin dynasty. He's preoccupied with preserving the Russian sphere of influence. What a fvcking waste of time. This crap doesn't strengthen Russia in the long term one iota. I'm gloomy. Colon is proving me wrong.

No no no, I do not remember that day-dreaming-oil-crashing bit. I do remember being sanguine about Russia's structural reforms, and I was considering the start of Russia's economic upturn back then as partly a result of a structural change, which would survive a drop of the oil prices. IIRC you were rather sceptical about such an ability of Russia's economy.

Since the oil prices haven't really crashed since then, neither of us have been proven wrong. (even though I no longer believe Russia's economy to be structurally better off than in the past)

	28-12-2004 05:46									#101
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Just out of curiosity, how much of the Russian Federation's import/export is from/to Ukraine?

The most recent information I have is for the second quater of 2004:
The share of the countries of united economic space (Ukraine, Kazkhstan and Byelorussia) in Russian export was 15,4%.
The share of the countries of united economic space (Ukraine, Kazkhstan and Byelorussia) in Russian import was 22.8%.
Ukraine contributes to 39.3% and 39.4% of this share, accordingly. So Ukranian share in Russian export/import was 6.05% and 8.98% accordingly. Compare this with Russian share in Ukranian export/import aprox. 18.5% and 37% and take into account that 65% of Ukranian import from Russia it's oil and gas. These resources are crucial for Ukranian economy, (esp. considering they are "buying" them for our internal prices that are several times lower than European prices), on the other hand Russia can sell them anywhere else/can afford to do not sell them at all, since export to Ukraine doesn't make any profit anyway, becasue prices are too low and they do not pay even those prices, only make their debt to Russia bigger.
Do you get the picture now?

We clearly and absolutely HAVE them.

	28-12-2004 05:47									#102
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No wonder they want to set free, then

	28-12-2004 05:54									#103
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quote: Originally posted by Heresson No wonder they want to set free, then

You want them free? FINE GODDAMNIT! TAKE THEM! All you have to do is to give them millions, millions, millions and millions of bucks every month absolutely for free (with no chance to ever return them, I'm not talking about debt here, I'm talking about donatations), to supply them with oil and gas, to open your market for their goods (which mean that hundreds of thousands of your workers will lose their jobs and you'll have to pay their unemployment reliefs). That's all. Take them for all I care.

	28-12-2004 06:06									#104
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It seems You do care... What could otherwise be the reason for all your rant here and in the "Ukraine" thread?

	28-12-2004 06:07									#105
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quote: Originally posted by Serb The most recent information I have is for the second quater of 2004: The share of the countries of united economic space (Ukraine, Kazkhstan and Byelorussia) in Russian export was 15,4%. The share of the countries of united economic space (Ukraine, Kazkhstan and Byelorussia) in Russian import was 22.8%. Ukraine contributes to 39.3% and 39.4% of this share, accordingly. So Ukranian share in Russian export/import was 6.05% and 8.98% accordingly. Compare this with Russian share in Ukranian export/import aprox. 18.5% and 37% and take into account that 65% of Ukranian import from Russia it's oil and gas. These resources are crucial for Ukranian economy, (esp. considering they are "buying" them for our internal prices that are several times lower than European prices), on the other hand Russia can sell them anywhere else/can afford to do not sell them at all, since export to Ukraine doesn't make any profit anyway, becasue prices are too low and they do not pay even those prices, only make their debt to Russia bigger. Do you get the picture now? We clearly and absolutely HAVE them.

Certainly, i get the picture, and if i was an Ukranian i would run like hell to get free of such terms.

Btw, why should Ukraine be more woulnerable than any other country ? Other colonies have done fine since the fall of the soviet empire - it may hurt for a short while, but later it only gets better.

	28-12-2004 06:16									#106
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Yeah, it's really like the Ukrainians are gonna outcompete us on a serious scale.

	28-12-2004 06:18									#107
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Putin's attacks upon private companies which challenge his power will severly retard Russia's future development. Just as Putin's playing with the legal and political systems to keep both him and his cronies in control will harm Russia's long term stability and development.

Sorry, but this is complete BS.
1)Putin doesn't attack companies. The public prosecutor of Russia initiated the cases vs. companies who rob Russia via not paying billions of dollars as taxes. Was Al Capone a ****ing freedom fighter who chalenged the power of US president or he was a mafiozo who was caught for not paying taxes? Al Capone is a virgin in comparison with Khodarkovsky. He made billions USD within a couple of years absolutely from nothing.
2) What Puting doing is making more democratic Russia and it's very imporatant less corrupt Russia. The whole idea of his reform is to create few, but real political parties that will represent their voters in the parliament. We had several dozens of parties during last parliament election. It's nonsence. Almost any banch of morons can gather, proclaime themselves a political party and go to parliament election. With so many parties, nobody ever is responsible for anything. It's just a BS situation. Damn, we even had the party of beer-lovers. Putin is absolutely right on this issue. People need few, but real political parties with absolutely clear programs and goal who will represent their interests in the parliament.

	28-12-2004 06:22									#108
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Yeah, it's really like the Ukrainians are gonna outcompete us on a serious scale.

EXACTLY!
They had only one market for their goods- the Russian market. Like it or not, they share the bond with Russia.

	28-12-2004 06:23									#109
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quote: Originally posted by Serb You want them free? FINE GODDAMNIT! TAKE THEM! All you have to do is to give them millions, millions, millions and millions of bucks every month absolutely for free (with no chance to ever return them, I'm not talking about debt here, I'm talking about donatations), to supply them with oil and gas, to open your market for their goods (which mean that hundreds of thousands of your workers will lose their jobs and you'll have to pay their unemployment reliefs). That's all. Take them for all I care.

Serb, I'm really confused ! You fight like hell to keep control over something you mean are worthless and just cost wast amounts of resources - you even accept that election fraud is a reasonable way to keep this control - do you really belive that those resources couldn't be used more sensible back home ?

If you are thinking that election of a Moscow puppet would reduce the export of jobs to Ukraine, then you are really far out. Eouropean companies are already exporting production to ukraine, and they would just love a moscow puppet keeping the costs low. That will probably not happen now since the econmical growth in Ukraine will go up faster than expected.

	28-12-2004 06:24									#110
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quote: Originally posted by Heresson It seems You do care... What could otherwise be the reason for all your rant here and in the "Ukraine" thread?

h a t e

	28-12-2004 06:26									#111
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Oh yea, Yushenko's wife was apparently a Reagan administration aide of some sorts.

	28-12-2004 06:27									#112
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quote: Originally posted by Serb EXACTLY! They had only one market for their goods- the Russian market. Like it or not, they share the bond with Russia.

BS. Their market may have been too closely connected to the russian market with those drawbacks that have. If they get other opportunities, they will probably get out of the mud thy have been in for years.

	28-12-2004 06:27									#113
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towards who

	28-12-2004 06:30									#114
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quote: Originally posted by BlackCat Serb, I'm really confused ! You fight like hell to keep control over something you mean are worthless and just cost wast amounts of resources - you even accept that election fraud is a reasonable way to keep this control - do you really belive that those resources couldn't be used more sensible back home ?

I believe they SHOULD BE. If Ukraine want to be "independent" (like we opress them somehow ), fine, but why the hell WE should pay for this?

quote: If you are thinking that election of a Moscow puppet would reduce the export of jobs to Ukraine, then you are really far out. Eouropean companies are already exporting production to ukraine, and they would just love a moscow puppet keeping the costs low.

Check figures of Ukranian import/export I've posted on the previous page.

quote: That will probably not happen now since the econmical growth in Ukraine will go up faster than expected.

When Yushenko was pm he f*cked up Ukranian economy. What makes you think he will do better as president?

Wanna bet? I bet that after a couple of years of his presidency Ukraine will be an even worse sh!thole than it is now.

	28-12-2004 06:32									#115
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quote: Originally posted by Heresson towards who

You of course and towards your advanced western, democratic, brainwashed friends.
Have nice night I'm log out

	28-12-2004 06:33									#116
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My heart bleeds

	28-12-2004 06:34									#117
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha Oh yea, Yushenko's wife was apparently a Reagan administration aide of some sorts.

I am a little confused about this point. If i'm not wrong, then Ukraine has been run by Moscow puppets for more than 10 years, so how can the admin be against moscow - such people would have been weded out long ago.

	28-12-2004 06:38									#118
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quote: Originally posted by BlackCat Certainly, i get the picture, and if i was an Ukranian i would run like hell to get free of such terms. Btw, why should Ukraine be more woulnerable than any other country ? Other colonies have done fine since the fall of the soviet empire - it may hurt for a short while, but later it only gets better.

Whom exactly do you mean? Beylorussia? Estonia? Latvia? Who?
Poland or Czechs or Hungary were not part of the Soviet Empire. They always lived better than people in Soviet republics. Always had better infrastructure and industry. And Poland is doing just fine? With 20% of unemployed and over 100 billions of Euro as national debt, they made within few years?
And one more thing. UKraine is not part of evil Russian Empire. THEY GOT THEIR INDEPENDENCE 13 YEARS AGO. They had 13 years of independence to became like Poland or Czechs, why they didn't? And why the hell they should become now?

	28-12-2004 06:40									#119
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quote: Originally posted by BlackCat I am a little confused about this point. If i'm not wrong, then Ukraine has been run by Moscow puppets for more than 10 years, so how can the admin be against moscow - such people would have been weded out long ago.

Holy crap. The west is hopeless. How can anyone be so brainwashed? Pravda is the childish paper in comparison with your freepresspropagandabrainwashingmachines.
****

	28-12-2004 06:41									#120
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quote: Originally posted by Heresson My heart bleeds

Good.