 |
| |
|
|
Agathon
|
 |
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:36
|
|
quote:
The company may be making money but not enough to cover operating costs. |
It is. I actually bothered listening to Apple's last quarter results call. They are selling plenty of notebooks and powermacs, but less imacs (presumably because people were waiting for the imac G5).
Apple is in robust financial health. The stock was up over 200% this last year. Some analysts have claimed that it might even rise to $100 a share in the next year. That would be a 400% rise in less than two years. Since the majority of Apple's revenue still comes from computer systems, I find your comments ridiculous.
It's fair to make claims about various problems that Apple might have, but in the light of the actual facts, it is just silly to claim that they are doomed.
What makes it even sillier is that people have been claiming the same for more than 15 years now. Saying Apple is doomed must be one of the most popular themes in technology journalism. I imagine that tech journos with nothing on the table automatically think "well... time for another Apple is ****ed story."
quote:
Apple isn't getting out of the computer industry sure, but it is falling behind in technology when it comes to their computers. The G5 though decent, is nothing compared to the AMD Athlon 64. |
Apple doesn't make the G5 chip, IBM does. It's exactly the same chip that Microsoft is going to use in the next generation XBox. IBM has been tardy at delivering faster chips. That's hardly Apple's fault and I don't see it continuing for much longer. IBM's old G3 chip was pretty good and had a long operational life in macs. Hell, my mac has a G3 chip and it still manages to run all the software I need it to with more than acceptable performance 5 years down the track. That's pretty good value for a computer that I paid less than $1000 US dollars for nearly five years ago. A computer that has run reliably that whole time without ever once needing to be taken in for repairs. A computer that I have never had to erase and reinstall the OS on (I did have to reinstall it a couple of years ago when I bought a bigger hard drive). A computer that has never suffered from a virus or malware attack.
Why would I want to spend good money on a Windows based system that to make competitive I would have to build myself. My time is worth more than the difference. Not having a computer that is loaded up with crapware by the manufacturer is also something I value.
More to the point, having a computer that my wife cannot break, wreck or render inoperable is certainly worth hundreds of dollars to me. If you knew what she was like with computers, you would esteem Apple highly for being able to create such a machine. 
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Asher
|
 |
Calgary, Alberta
Nov 1999
time: 22:36
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
They all made a mistake then, since they all put Apple on "buy".
But of course, it's a conspiracy. |
Who said anything about a conspiracy?
Of course they'd all put Apple as a "buy" -- look at the amount of hype behind the iPod there is, driving Apple's share price and deluding it's P/E.
"stock analysts" exist when to tell you to buy and sell shares. It makes sense to buy Apple shares right now, just like it made sense to buy dot-com shares in the late 90s.
They are not good sources for information about market trends, or even company value. Stock analysts exist to measure the hype and predict if a stock will rise or fall, and as the dot-com burst and other companies have shown, this rarely has much to do with what the company's actually up to.
I'm not saying it's a conspiracy or that they're morons, just that they're people who exist to say when to buy and sell. And when a company is being hyped up, you can bet its stock will rise, and give it a "buy" recommendation.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Asher
|
|
Calgary, Alberta
Nov 1999
time: 22:36
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
It is. I actually bothered listening to Apple's last quarter results call. They are selling plenty of notebooks and powermacs, but less imacs (presumably because people were waiting for the imac G5). |
Define "plenty", and compare it to sales of, say, IBM ThinkPads and Dell desktops.
quote:
Apple is in robust financial health. The stock was up over 200% this last year. Some analysts have claimed that it might even rise to $100 a share in the next year. That would be a 400% rise in less than two years. Since the majority of Apple's revenue still comes from computer systems, I find your comments ridiculous. |
I find your comments ridiculous...you clearly don't understand how businesses and finances work. You must've been under a rock in the late 90s or something.
The stock price seldom has much to do with the actual company's financial situation and its potential, ESPECIALLY with technology companies.
quote:
What makes it even sillier is that people have been claiming the same for more than 15 years now. |
And all the while, Apple's share has dropped from what, 20% to 2%? Instead of dismissing them as idiots, perhaps you can actually look at how far Apple has fallen. Their marketshare continues to decrease in their core business, even if iPod sales are great. People have been spelling doom for Apple for years, and I don't think they'll go bankrupt, but I'm sure they'll become increasingily irrelevant in the PC world.
quote:
Apple doesn't make the G5 chip, IBM does. |
Thanks Ace, I didn't know that, what with working with G5 compilers...
quote:
It's exactly the same chip that Microsoft is going to use in the next generation XBox. |
No, it's not. Not even close.
The G5 is the PowerPC 970, which is derived from the IBM Power4 server chip, and is single-core. The chip in the Xbox2 is a derivative of the newer IBM Power5 server chip, and is tri-core with things like multi-threading.
quote:
IBM has been tardy at delivering faster chips. That's hardly Apple's fault |
No, it is Apple's fault. There was backlash from IBM when Jobs promised 3GHz in Summer 2004. IBM doesn't work on cranking up the clockspeed, they never have. Apple planned to put pressure on IBM by making lofty promises, hoping IBM would work harder on cranking up clock speed. IBM didn't, they work on future core revisions instead.
It is Apple's fault. Intel and AMD make a business out of continually cranking clock speeds and revving up every couple months, IBM will adjust clock speeds very slightly, maybe once every 2 years even. They just add new features to cores to make them faster. They've always been like that, and Motorola is usually the same way. It's Apple's fault for sticking with either embedded chip makers or server chip makers -- both of which don't build a business on frequency scaling like Intel and AMD.
quote:
and I don't see it continuing for much longer. |
Well, you're a moron. The public roadmaps don't put the G5's clockspeeds as going up much at all. What they are doing is making a dual-core version, though...
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Agathon
|
|
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:36
|
|
quote:
They are not good sources for information about market trends, or even company value. Stock analysts exist to measure the hype and predict if a stock will rise or fall, and as the dot-com burst and other companies have shown, this rarely has much to do with what the company's actually up to. |
As I said, you seem to think it is a conspiracy. These people are employed to help stockholders make decisions, often by cutting through the hype.
Of course in your mad world they exist solely measure the "hype".
Are you sure you aren't suffering from some form of paranoia?
quote:
I'm not saying it's a conspiracy or that they're morons, just that they're people who exist to say when to buy and sell. And when a company is being hyped up, you can bet its stock will rise, and give it a "buy" recommendation. |
Have you been living on Mars?
This is exactly what tech stock analysts have been trying not to do over the last few years. After the dot.com crash you couldn't go a day without some soul-searching article on this subject.
Last edited by Agathon on 03-01-2005 at 09:37
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Giancarlo
|
 |
Los Angeles
Apr 2000
time: 02:36
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
It is. I actually bothered listening to Apple's last quarter results call. They are selling plenty of notebooks and powermacs, but less imacs (presumably because people were waiting for the imac G5). |
They make a measling 2% of the market. They do not sell plenty of notebooks and powermacs.
quote:
Apple is in robust financial health. The stock was up over 200% this last year. Some analysts have claimed that it might even rise to $100 a share in the next year. That would be a 400% rise in less than two years. Since the majority of Apple's revenue still comes from computer systems, I find your comments ridiculous. |
Stocks are not always accurate indicators of how the company is doing. I don't know where you get off on saying that the stocks show how the company is doing financially. Enron's stock shot up but it didn't show the reality. I find your comments ridiciulous. Apple from what I look like barely makes enough to cover its operating costs.
quote:
It's fair to make claims about various problems that Apple might have, but in the light of the actual facts, it is just silly to claim that they are doomed. |
I never said they were. They would continue to move as a company but they would fall behind just like Cyrix did a few years ago.
quote:
Apple doesn't make the G5 chip, IBM does. It's exactly the same chip that Microsoft is going to use in the next generation XBox. |
I never said Apple made the G5 Chip, but they make the G5.
quote:
A computer that has run reliably that whole time without ever once needing to be taken in for repairs. A computer that I have never had to erase and reinstall the OS on (I did have to reinstall it a couple of years ago when I bought a bigger hard drive). A computer that has never suffered from a virus or malware attack. |
It is Apple's fault for putting trust in a company that obviously has different standards then they do. AMD has been zipping through the water and has a much different business method then Apple. Apple runs reliably? Good for you. I still have a Pentium 166MHz CPU that still works even though I bought it like five years ago or something like that. But, Mac OS crashes all the time.. you may not have to reinstall it but it crashes constantly. Furthermore, AMD makes a very reliable CPU.
quote:
Why would I want to spend good money on a Windows based system that to make competitive I would have to build myself. My time is worth more than the difference. Not having a computer that is loaded up with crapware by the manufacturer is also something I value. |
You don't have to build it yourself. There are plenty of good computer companies out there. And I'm not talking about Dell. You can go down to third party builders and go on the net. You can customize the machine to your own specifications with parts you need. Each part of a PC is customizable. When you find what you need on, you order it and they build it for you. I don't like Dell. But the PC market is not only dell.
quote:
More to the point, having a computer that my wife cannot break, wreck or render inoperable is certainly worth hundreds of dollars to me. If you knew what she was like with computers, you would esteem Apple highly for being able to create such a machine. |
Apple is a load of crap. And my mom can't break my dad's AMD Athlon 64 based machine, and she is probably the same.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Asher
|
|
Calgary, Alberta
Nov 1999
time: 22:36
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
As I said, you seem to think it is a conspiracy. These people are employed to help stockholders make decisions, often by cutting through the hype.
Of course in your mad world they exist solely measure the "hype".
Are you sure you aren't suffering from some form of paranoia? |
They exist to tell people when to buy stock, period. Modern stock analysis is as much predicting human behavior that understanding the company's financials.
When you think the stock is going up, you buy it. When you think it'll go down, you sell it.
Why does stock go up? Because lots of people buy it. What does hype do to people looking to make money? They hear this digital music thing is the next big thing, and Apple is the "number one", and jump on that bandwagon, inflating the price and deflecting the P/E...
I don't believe it's a conspiracy. I don't know why you keep saying that. It's analysing and predicting human behavior, that's how you make money in the stock market. If you think people are going to panic, you sell...if they're going to drool, you buy. It's how money is made.
Real, smart, professional people who buy longterm stocks watch the P/E closely, and those people are very concerned about Apple's rapidly rising P/E. It means the stock is overvalued, and it will normalize.
Edit: To give you some idea of how Apple compares to others:
Apple's P/E: 90.83
Microsoft: 35.96
IBM: 20.96
INTC: 20.32
Citigroup: 15.28
Oracle: 24.54
Now which of these values do you think is overly high?
You do know what P/E means, right? The price-to-earnings ratio? If you're saying their stock is going to go up another 200% or so within a couple years, that'll make that number even more ridiculously high. When it crashes -- and it will -- it will crash very, very hard...if what you're saying is true. Even so, I don't think it'll happen. Apple's stock now is just shy of what the dot-coms were at in the late 90s...which then crashed down heavily to the ~50s.
Last edited by Asher on 03-01-2005 at 15:33
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Asher
|
|
Calgary, Alberta
Nov 1999
time: 22:36
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Urban Ranger
If it's so easy, everybody will be making hand over fist in the stock market - but they aren't. |
It's very easy to make money in the longterm in the stock market, if you know what you're doing.
The vast majority of people trading stocks don't do a very good job. They panic, they rush, the sell...
For instance: Back in the early '90s when IBM was on the verge of collapse, investors paniced. The shares took a HUGE dive, to a fraction of the price it was a year before.
The smart investors -- my father included -- bought tons of IBM shares when they were ridiculously undervalued (with a P/E of something like 4-5...). They knew a company with THAT many intelligent people and THAT big of a reputation could turn itself around. And it did.
That's how you do it, my friend. 
Mind you, there's always risk. Companies could be cheating (for example, Enron). But even then, if you actually keep up to date on the market situation, it's easy. My dad owned Enron shares until about four years ago. He was reading articles in Fortune and Business Week about how their whole business model worked with futures trading and whatnot. It sounded too "fuzzy" to him, too much room for fudging and bullshit, so he got out of it...
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
lord of the mark
|
 |
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:36
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
Asher, basically you are just thick. I mean, it's quite hilarious how far you will go to avoid admitting you are wrong.
Stock analysts do much more than you credit them for. If you were right, all they would do is create a bubble economy. This happens sometimes, but they are pretty gun shy in this respect now, especially after the last downturn. Why don't you try actually reading what they say instead of making your usual pathetic generalizations.
But wait... you are constitutionally incapable of anything else. |
agathon is correct. Stock analysts attempt to evaluate stocks by forecasting companys cash flows, which for most companies involves analyzing market shares and other aspects of markets. They of course DO get this wrong from time to time, which is hardly surprising considering how many uncertainties there are. Company executives cooking the books (a la Enron) doesnt help, which is WHY such book cooking is illegal. Of course they ALSO look at other factors - if I figure out stock x is worth $10 based on long term cash flows, but I also think EVERYBODY else will soon think its worth only $5, and its now selling for $8, it makes sense to SELL, and buy later, DESPITE its long term prospects.
Oh, and if you are better at this sort of thing than professional analysts, you should be rich.
Shocking that only died in the wool commie seems to understand something about the efficiency of financial markets. Delightful though
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
Agathon
|
|
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:36
|
|
By definition it is trading at the price the market will bear. If it wasn't it would fall as people would be trying to sell it.
Why is it that you don't understand the most important principle underlying capitalism?
Here's a report from CNN Money - that bastion of liberal artsy anti-capitalism.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/03/mar.../aapl/index.htm
quote:
Shiny Apple?
Stock Spotlight: Shares more than tripled in 2004 thanks to the iPod. But what's next?
January 3, 2005: 10:50 AM EST
By Katie Benner, CNN/Money staff writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The cult of Apple found new life in 2004.
No longer just a company for devotees of its Mac line of computers, Apple was the hot tech stock last year thanks to its wildly successful iPod digital music player. Many users of PCs running on Microsoft's Windows could be spotted wearing the iPod's trademark white headphones.
But there was more to the Apple story than the iPod. Apple's fiscal 2004 sales grew in every one of its product categories, helping the company to consistently blow away earnings per share forecasts.
It's little wonder that Apple (Research) stock gained more than 200 percent last year, making it one of the best performers in the S&P 500.
The buzz doesn't seem to be dying down either. Rumors are starting to percolate about new product launches at the upcoming Macworld Expo to be held next week in San Francisco.
Some Mac watchers think Apple may unveil an iTunes compatible phone from Motorola, a flash-memory based iPod that would cost significantly less than other iPods and a cheaper version of its iMac computer.
And the company's fiscal first-quarter results, which should feature some boffo holiday sales of the iPod, are scheduled for release Jan. 12. Wall Street expects sales to increase 56 percent from the same period a year ago and for earnings to increase by 200 percent.
But Apple's renaissance has pushed the stock toward $70 from just $14 in April 2003. So is it too late for investors to grab a piece of the Apple pie?
We all scream for iPod
The sleek-looking iPod defined digital music in 2004.
According to data from market research firm NPD Group, the iPod recently captured more than 90 percent of the U.S. market for music players using hard drives. Including cheaper flash-memory based products, iPod accounted for nearly 60 percent of the entire digital music player market.
Sales of the iPod surged 279 percent in fiscal 2004 and as a result, revenue from the iPod and other music products, such as online music store iTunes, accounted for nearly 20 percent of Apple's overall top line in 2004.
But analysts say the company can't depend indefinitely on just music for growth as some think consumers will eventually crave a single device that does it all -- plays music, takes photos, makes phone calls and sends e-mail.
Apple did add photo storage capability to the iPod late last year though. And bullish analysts say that Apple, a notably innovative company, should stay ahead of the curve.
So don't rule out future versions of an iPod with even more multimedia features.
Big Mac?
Despite all the iPod hype, the Mac is still Apple's bread and butter. So no matter how popular the iPod gets, Apple will need to post solid sales and profit gains from its computer business. But some analysts think the iPod could be the best advertisement for the Mac.
In a recent survey conducted by Piper Jaffray, 6 percent of iPod users said they'd switched from PCs to Macs after buying the music player, and another 7 percent said they would make the switch in the next 12 months.
Overwhelmingly positive reviews of iPod, according to Piper Jaffray, have made the Apple name synonymous with customer satisfaction and reliability. And Apple bulls are banking on this so-called halo effect to lift sales of not only Macs but Apple's iTunes, iMovie, iPhoto and iDVD software as well.
Some Mac watchers also say mounting security problems that have hit computers running on Windows hard will leave consumers eager to purchase Macs, which have been relatively immune to worms and viruses.
Buyer beware
Despite the stock's strong performance in 2004, Wall Street analysts still have a mixed opinion on the stock. According to Thomson/First Call, eleven analysts have Apple rated a "buy" or "strong buy" while 12 have it rated a "hold."
Shares are trading at nearly 44 times fiscal 2005 earnings estimates of $1.49 so they are not cheap. Then again, earnings are expected to more than double this year and grow at an average rate of 20 percent annually for the next few years.
And the company does have nearly $14 a share in cash on its balance sheet. If you subtract that, the company's underlying business is trading at about 33 times estimates. That's still pricey but it's more in line with the P/E ratios of hardware companies Dell and Gateway.
So if you're a long-term investor, it's hard to find any worms in the Apple story. But investors should realize that the stock could be volatile in the near-term. Expectations for hot new products coming out of Macworld and strong earnings are so high that the slightest disappointment could trigger a violent sell off. |
They are in fine shape. The stock looks higher P/E wise because of Apple's cash reserves.
These are facts Fez. You can't just assert that Apple is doomed for no reason, especially when the expert consensus is that they're looking pretty good right now for various reasons stated in the article.
|
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:36.
Apolyton Time is 00:36. |
top of page
|
| archivepost |
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
02-01-2005 23:09
In nerd talk, that's an extreme insult. I hope Ming doesn't ban me.
.
|