02-01-2005 08:20									#121
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Do you have citations to prove this? Perhaps some statistical analysis? Frankly, I think those that post in such generalities about people without proof are the morons .

This is why I asked the question about QWERTY


Digital music is not a niche market, it's a sector that's still in the first half of the diffusion curve. Take-off has taken place though and I believe that we're already in the late majority phase.

	02-01-2005 08:26									#122
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Have we all forgotten history?

Apple had a good start with the Mac when it was new and novel. Apple is employing an identical lock-in based business strategy now, just like they did before. They haven't learned from their mistakes.

Once the general public gets sick of the iPod novelty, and its popularity makes it un-hip (it's already entering that phase...), and mixed with a burgeoning market of competitors that are cheaper and don't lock you in, Apple will feel the hurt with the iPod just like they did the Mac.

It's pathetically predictable. Jobs has always been a stellar marketing guy, and a decent innovation driver, but he lacks any sort of long-term business planning and strategy.

	02-01-2005 08:28									#123
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Jesus... you don't know anything, do you?

	02-01-2005 08:30									#124
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quote: Digital music is a market that can only expand.

True, but it isn't there yet. When it becomes the main music market we'll have to see what happens. There is also that whole Beatles 'Apple' case .

quote: We all know that Mac users have a higher vocabulary than PC users, so

Vocabulary does not always equal intelligence. Besides, this wasn't who is smarter, but your contention that most PC users are morons. Stop AVOIDING the question .

quote: Digital music players not a nitch market; they are a growing market and everybody wants one, though not everyone is able to justify the cost of buying one.

What percentage of the total market do they have? So for NOW, they are a niche (thanks Spiffor) market. Maybe when the percentage increases, we can look at it again.

quote: What are you talking about?

You really need to read the posts you are responding to. I asked if you wanted to make a wager that Apple will not have more than 5% of the personal computer market.

	02-01-2005 08:31									#125
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Jesus... you don't know anything, do you?

Actually, Jesus knows all. And he knows you and me and Asher and everyone else who has ever lived, is living and will live. Praise the Lord!

	02-01-2005 08:32									#126
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Jesus... you don't know anything, do you?

I know that the iPod's success right now was based on its style and hip-ness, things we know to be fad-based.

Once something becomes obligatory, it's not hip. Trends begin to deviate into other directions.

Further, we know that consumers don't like paying through the nose for only mediocre hardware, when the competition offers the same or better for cheaper. We also know that consumers don't like to be locked in without any choice.

That's why the Mac is failing to capture any reasonable amount of marketshare, that's why the iPod will dimish substantially in the long run as well.

I don't know how anyone can think Apple can keep anywhere near the marketshare they have now in the future with harder, more frequent competition, a more educated consumer base with more experience in digital music players, and the backlash from the iPod's popularity.

	02-01-2005 08:33									#127
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Jobs has always been a stellar marketing guy, and a decent innovation driver, but he lacks any sort of long-term business planning and strategy.

Lock-in is actually aimed at sustaining a long-term relationship. The problem is, however, that the consumer's switching costs aren't high enough to function as a decent threshold.

	02-01-2005 08:34									#128
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quote: I know that the iPod's success right now was based on its style and hip-ness, things we know to be fad-based. Once something becomes obligatory, it's not hip. Trends begin to deviate into other directions.

That seems to fly in the face with how many iPods are flying off the shelves these days. If they are everywhere and that would hurt their hip-ness, we'd expect their sales to drop dramatically. That hasn't happened yet.

	02-01-2005 08:37									#129
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quote: Originally posted by Asher I don't know how anyone can think Apple can keep anywhere near the marketshare they have now in the future with harder, more frequent competition, a more educated consumer base with more experience in digital music players, and the backlash from the iPod's popularity.

Depends on what they do with it. There's some interesting innovative research on human connectedness through mobile devices. If released in time and with the right network externalities, it could be a major success, but this goes for every manufacturer/brand.

	02-01-2005 08:38									#130
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Vocabulary does not always equal intelligence. Besides, this wasn't who is smarter, but your contention that most PC users are morons. Stop AVOIDING the question .

They are morons, at least when they get on their computers. I know this is true for about 95% of my own family (and that includes extended family).

quote: What percentage of the total market do they have? So for NOW, they are a niche (thanks Spiffor) market. Maybe when the percentage increases, we can look at it again.

No, market share matters not because this is a market that will eventually replace everything else. Right now, though, it is still in it's early stages.

quote: You really need to read the posts you are responding to. I asked if you wanted to make a wager that Apple will not have more than 5% of the personal computer market.

I ain't making no wagers.

	02-01-2005 08:39									#131
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edit: @ Asher: Yes. I remember you saying this crap two years ago.

I guess you can't ever come up with anything new.

	02-01-2005 08:41									#132
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quote: That seems to fly in the face with how many iPods are flying off the shelves these days. If they are everywhere and that would hurt their hip-ness, we'd expect their sales to drop dramatically. That hasn't happened yet.

Don't worry Imran. Asher is so obviously a genius that he knows how market trends work, and has decided that everything will be different this time.

If the ipod follows the usual course, Apple will be selling even more of them. But again, why take the word of professional stock analysts when Asher can pull the truth out of his ass at will?

	02-01-2005 08:51									#133
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Further, we know that consumers don't like paying through the nose for only mediocre hardware, when the competition offers the same or better for cheaper. We also know that consumers don't like to be locked in without any choice.

Uhh... what's so mediocre about the iPod? the Zen might be technically a bit better, but the difference certainly isn't staggering. And it just looks ugly.

And I don't see the problem with on-line music stores. Most people just don't buy their music online anyway. Even then, the iTunes Music Store is just fine.

	02-01-2005 08:55									#134
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quote: Further, we know that consumers don't like paying through the nose for only mediocre hardware, when the competition offers the same or better for cheaper

But they aren't. Creative's players are aesthetically unappealing and lack the simplicity of the ipod. The ipod's competitors appeal to techie people who are obsessed with features, but who are incapable of realizing that most people want something simple.

	02-01-2005 09:00									#135
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quote: They are morons, at least when they get on their computers.

What is the basis for this comment? Why are they morons? What do they do that is stupid? Yes, some people are morons. Some people do dumb things. But how is that most PC users?

quote: market share matters not because this is a market that will eventually replace everything else. Right now, though, it is still in it's early stages.

And thus being in early stages is a niche. We'll see what happens when it is the majority. Maybe we will see what happened with computers where Apple was overtaken. Maybe not. But for now, it's a very, very small part and we can't really predict anything.

But, it's been a very shrewd move for Apple. If they are still the majority maker when digital music becomes everywhere, then they did it by entering into a niche market and riding it until it became a majority market.

quote: I ain't making no wagers.

I guess you see the error of your predictions .

	02-01-2005 14:30									#136
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quote: Originally posted by Mr. Nice Guy Well, I have news for you, Imran. The vast majority of that 95% are morons.

Morons for wanting a faster yet cheaper machine?

	02-01-2005 15:02									#137
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon I just thought I'd share this hilarious pic from MSN on how to perfect your digital photos.

I'm thinking that's fake, considering the wording.

	02-01-2005 15:13									#138
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Also one other thing I want to say.. Apple was practically bailed out by the success of the Ipod. If it wasn't for the Ipod the company would be in chapter 11 proceedings. Its computing business is a total failure. And no, this little lets price a total piece of crap at $499 will not bring it back any market share.

	02-01-2005 16:42									#139
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon If the ipod follows the usual course, Apple will be selling even more of them. But again, why take the word of professional stock analysts when Asher can pull the truth out of his ass at will?

"stock analysts" know d*ck all about market trends.

The same stock analysts harped up Transmeta as the future of computing. Stock analysts know nothing about computers and computational devices, nor the market. They just like to judge hype...enough hype will send a stock through the roof.

Imran: The iPod still isn't really that popular in the grand scheme of things - discmans still own the VAST majority of the market, and last I checked even combined sales of flash MP3 players outsold iPods.

	02-01-2005 16:44									#140
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quote: Originally posted by Oncle Boris Uhh... what's so mediocre about the iPod?

The 90 day warranty.
The sound quality.
The capacity/price ratio (actually, I'd rate it as poor in this respect).
The only legal online music venue being the most expensive one.
The limited DSP on the chip.
The limited playlist options (like the simple ability to randomly play songs from a specific playlist, rather than the whole player...)

I'm also not a fan of the touchwheel, but I recognize that many people are. I'm also the kind of person who swears by the TrackPoint on ThinkPads, rather than touchpads.

Relative movement for sorting lists is both more efficient in terms of effort, and in speed. The problem is, morons have problems with it (it requires more thought because it's logarithmic, and for some people who are mentally challenged might find this exhausting), and it does have a learning curve.

	02-01-2005 19:01									#141
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Again, the high-schoolers typically not the market Apple should look for. The expectations of highschoolers (games, tinkering, acceptation of a non-simplistic GUI etc.) are not expectations that are universally shared.

Given that Aggie agrees with this... you all agree Apple's are for people too stupid to use anything else? Bravo

	02-01-2005 19:02									#142
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon I don't think they should aim for more than that anyway. Plenty of car makers control less of the market.

There are also a lot more car makers.

	02-01-2005 19:04									#143
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quote: Originally posted by Mr. Nice Guy You know, Agg, if the Mac market share was about equal to the Windows market share it would do a lot of good for computer security in this age of terrorism.

Except the only reason there are no viruses for Apple is because no one's going to waste time writing a virus that affects 2% of the computers out there.

	02-01-2005 19:05									#144
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: You know, I would quote you on that one in my sig, but because I'm good Christian guy, I'm not going to. Luck Why are you laughing? Digital music players are a nitch market. Compare their sales to CD players, Walkmans, etc, etc. They are dwarfed by the rest of the industry. Same with digital music (say iTunes or Napster, etc) compared to physical music sources. Apple went into a nitch market and took it over. Smart idea, but it is still a nitch. Btw, what about that wager?

It's niche. After the forth time you spelled it 'nitch', my spelling Nazi kicked in

	02-01-2005 21:16									#145
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quote: "stock analysts" know d*ck all about market trends.

You are without doubt the most deluded person on Apolyton. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

I mean, how ****ing dumb are you? Every time some professional disagrees with you, that is time to for you assert some grand conspiracy in which these people charge large sums of money for nothing.

Jesus... even I have more faith in the market than that, and I'm a commie.

	02-01-2005 21:17									#146
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quote: I'm thinking that's fake, considering the wording.

Nope.

http://guides.msn.com/tech/photosguide.armx

	02-01-2005 21:20									#147
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon quote: "stock analysts" know d*ck all about market trends. You are without doubt the most deluded person on Apolyton.

He made a mistake. Stock analysts only know about the market and nothing else, not about how the actual company is doing (enron anyone?).

	02-01-2005 21:24									#148
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quote: He made a mistake. Stock analysts only know about the market and nothing else, not about how the actual company is doing (enron anyone?).

They all made a mistake then, since they all put Apple on "buy".

But of course, it's a conspiracy.

On the other hand, you come off better than Asher in this thread. But not by much.

	02-01-2005 22:40									#149
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker Given that Aggie agrees with this... you all agree Apple's are for people too stupid to use anything else? Bravo

The computer-impaired should be the main target of Apple, indeed. The others audiences for Apple are the artsy types (I cannot understand why Apple bothered to try getting its hands on this market) and the people who got used to Apple at work (mostly in the publishing business).

But it's true that, ever since Win95 hit the shelves, Mac's only inherent superiority is the fool-proofness.

	02-01-2005 23:06									#150
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quote: Originally posted by Asher The 90 day warranty.

The warranty is 1 year, and that of the Zen is 90 days.

quote: The sound quality.

Since most people can't tell the difference between a CD and an encoded track (unless actively looking for differences), I don't see this as a big problem, especially considering that you'll be listening to an encoded track anyway.

quote: The capacity/price ratio (actually, I'd rate it as poor in this respect).

That's the only iPod's serious flaw. And to most people it doesn't matter, because they still can put 350-400 CDs worth of music on their player with 20GB of space. The only use I can see to having more is if you plan to actively use your player as a portable hard drive.

quote: The only legal online music venue being the most expensive one.

Is it, really? I thought that 99 cents a track was standard. And still to someone who dowloads from other venues... or encodes is files himself, it doesn't matter.

quote: The limited DSP on the chip. The limited playlist options (like the simple ability to randomly play songs from a specific playlist, rather than the whole player...)

Maybe. Can't that be eventually changed with a soft update though?

Face it, there might be some players with better specs, but nothing enough to make the iPod a clearly bad choice, unless the point of your life is to rely on machines to measure SNR differences that your ear never will be able to notice.