29-01-2005 04:24									#31
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Ramo 1. I think he clearly said, a timetable for withdrawal, rather than a timetable for training troops. 2. I do see a problem with that. Timetables aren't always conducive to peace (see India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, etc.). OTOH, it's unlikely that the Sunni Arabs will stop their violence without an immediate timetable. I'm conflicted over what to do.

I doubt the majority of the insurgents will stop their violence WITH an immediate timetable. Or even with actual US withdrawl. OTOH,to the extent that the US presence causes SOME to join the insurgency, a withdrawl of US troops from direct engagement (when arabic speaking Iraqis, with cultural sensitivities, take over from Americans in such sensitive things as house searchs, patrols, etc) will probably be more important than a paper timetable.

	29-01-2005 04:27									#32
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Ramo As I said, he did say that he wants a timetable, not a tentative plan that could be changed on the whim of the gov't or coalition.

If you establish a process, and establish that the Iraqi govt gets say so, the coalition can hardly change things on a whim. As for the whim of the Iraqi govt, hes going to BE the IRaqi govt, would he want to bind it? On the will o the wisp that it would get some insurgents to lay down their arms?

	29-01-2005 04:28									#33
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I do think that a timetable would help a lot in reducing the insurgency (in the short term, anyways) - though not eliminating it, of coruse. Remember that their leaders said they'd drop the boycott with a timetable.

	29-01-2005 04:28									#34
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

In Australia, only 15% of the eligible Iraqis registered to vote.

Worldwide, IIRC only 280'000 of about one Million eligible expats registered to vote

	29-01-2005 04:28									#35
	Support Apolyton

The insurgents just want to inflict as much as damage on a new democratic Iraq as they can. They must be eliminated. Afterall, I've seen an article showing that there has been massive progress in this last year alone (15,000 insurgents captured or killed).

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=sto...aq_general_dc_1

"BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S. and Iraqi forces have killed or captured 15,000 people over the past year in their fight against an insurgency ravaging Iraq (news - web sites), the commander of U.S. forces in the country said Wednesday."

This is what the media rarely talks about. The progress made against insurgents.

	29-01-2005 04:29									#36
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist I read in Metro this morning that Sweden, of all places, is the country with the most expat Iraqi voters - about 31k. IIRC, the interviewed ones were both going to vote for Allawi on the grounds that Sistani's bunch isn't secular enough.

Ah, CIA outpost Stockholm is doing its job, I see.

	29-01-2005 04:30									#37
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by Ramo I do think that a timetable would help a lot in reducing the insurgency (in the short term, anyways) - though not eliminating it, of coruse. Remember that their leaders said they'd drop the boycott with a timetable.

The boycott leaders you mean - IIP and AMS. But theyve also said theyll participate in constitutional talks despite the boycott - without regard to a timetable, IIUC.

	29-01-2005 04:33									#38
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

AMS (the more important body), IIRC. Point is, they want this a lot, and the new gov't would risk an escalating civil war without a timetable.

	29-01-2005 04:33									#39
	Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by Gangerolf In Australia, only 15% of the eligible Iraqis registered to vote. Worldwide, IIRC only 280'000 of about one Million eligible expats registered to vote

evidently some dont consider themselves expats, but "immigrants"

Also the voting places arent real convenient. Theres a polling place in suburban Maryland, IIUC its the only one for the east coast of the US - not every poor expat can afford the time and money to fly in from Boston, say. I presume the situation is similar in Oz, Euro, etc.

	29-01-2005 04:36									#40
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Ramo AMS (the more important body), IIRC. Point is, they want this a lot, and the new gov't would risk an escalating civil war without a timetable.

Begs the question of how much help AMS is already giving to the insurgency. Id suggest its worth negotiating with AMS over. Of course AMS will also be asking for input on constitutional questions, despite having few or no seats in the assembly. Also to avoid AMS supporting the insurgency. You can only sell one horse so many times - at some point AMS has to decide what it really wants. AMS of course can hardly say its ok with an indefinite occupation - THEY have a constituency to answer to as well, and not necessarily the most politically realistic one.

	29-01-2005 04:37									#41
	Suffering from ads?

quote: I dont know - seems SCIRI and Dawa have lost some support in the URBAN areas in the south - apparently theyre blamed for the way theyve run Basra (corrupt, and too fundie for a secular town) Allawi party, and the ICP may have a shot at taking over the provincial govt there.

I hadn't heard much about this. I think Allawi's list will do OK, but they probably won't make it into the government.

The Kurds will also be big winners. They'll be overrepresented. They only have one list, as I recall.

	29-01-2005 04:39									#42
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by DanS I hadn't heard much about this. I think Allawi's list will do OK, but they probably won't make it into the government. The Kurds will also be big winners. They'll be overrepresented. They only have one list, as I recall.

theres another Kurdish list, but the main Kurdish parties are on the same list.

	29-01-2005 04:41									#43
	Got spare money?

It's possible that a unity government will be formed from the main winners. That wouldn't be so bad.

	29-01-2005 04:42									#44
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by Sava My prediction: this is a sham, Allawi wins... is US puppet.

I'm sure Allawi wil be a top three but my guess is list 169 backed by The United Iraqi Alliance (that's Sistani's group for those of you who don't know) willl likely be the top vote getter this Sunday. The Shi'as make up around 60% of the Population and they're very egar to vote as are the Kurds and christians who together make up 20%. For those three groups we can expect 60%-70% turn out while the Sunni Arabs seem intent of commiting political suicide by refusing to vote thus insuring they are excluded from any future government.

The Sunni Arabs will likely have a turn out ranging from the teens up to 50% depending up how active militants are in a given area. By and large if the Sunnis turn out at 25% then I'd say their turn out was better then expected. Over all we will likely see national turn out in the 60% to 70% range dispite bombings and threats of violence meaning turnout will be better then just about eveery western country.

Expect Islamists, baathists, and antiwar westerners to claim that level of turn out wasn't high enough and the election was illegitimate no matter how high the voters turn out. The big deciding factor for Allawi will be how many secular shi'a show up because that will be his base while the religious shia will vote list 169, Kurds will vote either KDP or PDK depending upon where they live, the handful of Sunni Arab candidates will get washed away because sunnis won't be voting very much, and finge groups like the communist and reformed baathists will get less then 5% combined.

That's my guess.

	29-01-2005 04:43									#45
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Theres a polling place in suburban Maryland, IIUC its the only one for the east coast of the US - not every poor expat can afford the time and money to fly in from Boston, say. I presume the situation is similar in Oz, Euro, etc.

It is. There's one polling place just West of Copenhagen which will serve all eligible voters in Denmark and Southern parts of Sweden.

But then the Iraqis managed to raise enough of a stink about it being too expensive, that the Danish government has agreed to cover travelling expenses for the Iraqis in Denmark. Heh, I guess we're not very good at ignoring complaints from immigrants, whether they're actually merited or not...

	29-01-2005 04:45									#46
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by DanS It's possible that a unity government will be formed from the main winners. That wouldn't be so bad.

This is very likely as no one is going to want to go to the trouble of run off elections with all the violence associated with elections in Iraq. Besides Allawi won't be the top vote getter but the top parties will need him since he has a tough on insurgents reputation and is seen as a man the international community knows and respects.

	29-01-2005 04:51									#47
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

One thing to note - just because several parties share a list doesnt mean they will get along post election. Israel is a western demo with experience with nationwide prop rep, and coalition negotiations invariably bring up issues of sharing jobs and influence among members of the same list - one of the reasons Sharon is turning to labor, since he cant count on all members of the same party. Even if list 169 gets say 45% of the vote -it seats will still be shared among Dawa, SCIRI, INC, and others based on their places on the lists. Dawa and SCIRI are rivals. A narrow govt could be quite unstable.

	29-01-2005 04:59									#48
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

It seems my teacher is one of the candidates.

	29-01-2005 05:05									#49
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Acoording to the NYT, the UIA has commited itself to a secular government run by non clerics(meaning Hakim won't be PM).

A timetable would be a good thing, but only so long as the Iraqi government believes it will be strong enough to battle the insurgency on it's own and defeat it. Obviously the Iraqi government will be up against the wall if the insurgency wins, so they won't send the US forces home unless they are reasonabbly sure they can win.

	29-01-2005 05:08									#50
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Any party which wins the elections is going to have to ask the coalition to leave or else it will be seen as a puppet. The problem arises if the new government doesn't have the strength to defeat the sunni insurgents militarially yet must be seen as asking the US/UK to leave thus I predict a long time table for withdrawal filled with lots of loop holes for later back tracking.

	29-01-2005 05:12									#51
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Ah, CIA outpost Stockholm is doing its job, I see.

I assume something is funny here, but I'll be damned - or at least slightly more pleased with my own cleverness - if I can figure out what.

	29-01-2005 05:22									#52
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist I assume something is funny here, but I'll be damned - or at least slightly more pleased with my own cleverness - if I can figure out what.

Everybodys talking as if a win by Allawi is ipso facto proof that the US has manipulated the Iraqi election - ergo, according to this joke that I made up on the spot, if Iraqi expats in Sweden voted for Allawi, this is due to the hard work of the CIA station chief in Stockholm (assuming there is one) - a jab both at those alleging a rigged election, and a more subtle jab at CIA careerism (see, station chief Stockholm got two Iraqi expats to vote Allawi, he deserves a promotion)

It really kills a joke to explain it, no? I freely admit it wasnt much good to begin with, though

	29-01-2005 05:28									#53
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Ah. I was reading it as if Stockholm was a CIA outpost, rather than had one, which didn't make much sense.

	29-01-2005 05:32									#54
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Ah. I was reading it as if Stockholm was a CIA outpost, rather than had one, which didn't make much sense.

it would have been better if i hadnt blanked on the phrase "station chief", - but then would that have helped?

	29-01-2005 05:33									#55
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Last Conformist
Ah. I was reading it as if Stockholm was a CIA outpost, rather than had one, which didn't make much sense. [/QUOTE

Not that it necessarily makes much sense for Stockholm to HAVE one, but i dont really know

	29-01-2005 05:33									#56
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Too late to find out.

	29-01-2005 05:37									#57
	Put an end to popups!

They are driving several hundred miles to Nashville Tennessee to vote. Apparently we have quite a large poplualtion here. I say give them a chance like we all have. I predict that there will be a larger turnout in Iraq than there was in the last election in the United States. There must me a lesson here somewhere...

	29-01-2005 05:42									#58
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Everybodys talking as if a win by Allawi is ipso facto proof that the US has manipulated the Iraqi election - ergo, according to this joke that I made up on the spot, if Iraqi expats in Sweden voted for Allawi, this is due to the hard work of the CIA station chief in Stockholm (assuming there is one) - a jab both at those alleging a rigged election, and a more subtle jab at CIA careerism (see, station chief Stockholm got two Iraqi expats to vote Allawi, he deserves a promotion) It really kills a joke to explain it, no? I freely admit it wasnt much good to begin with, though

Haven't you heard? Bush has planted a microchip in their butts. This is the straight scoop from Michael Moore...

	29-01-2005 06:55									#59
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: I say give them a chance like we all have.

Haven't you heard, Lincoln? Nothing good can come of this election. The Arab Sunnis say that this is so. Get with the program!

	29-01-2005 07:03									#60
	Increase Your PM Length

In California the TV is showing busloads of Iraqis going to LA to vote. It appears our strong economy has attracted a fair number of Iraqi refugees and immigrants.