31-01-2005 00:51									#91
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

So, when will the results be known?

	31-01-2005 00:55									#92
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Spiffor: The two major indeologies fueling the insurgents are: - Baathist Rejectionists who want to restore the old Regime to power. - Sunni Islamic Fundamentalists. Sucsess by either would imply Sunni Dominance over the country.

Muqtada al Sadr and his militia are Shi'ite. Your perception of the insurgency is flawed. The Shia want an Islamic state. The Sunni's want a secular state.

	31-01-2005 01:13									#93
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quote: Originally posted by Smiley So, when will the results be known?

Between a week and ten days for the official results.

	31-01-2005 01:17									#94
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This is very good news, although there's still a lot more to be done - the insurgency, the rebuilding, the divisions in the country, making sure that it doesn't fall into dictatorship.


Arabs mesmerized by Iraqi elections

	31-01-2005 01:18									#95
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quote: Originally posted by Lazarus and the Gimp You know, I was wondering how many anti-BBC knee-jerkers would make a fool of themselves...

Just one so far. heh

	31-01-2005 01:23									#96
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"Muqtada al Sadr and his militia are Shi'ite. Your perception of the insurgency is flawed. The Shia want an Islamic state. The Sunni's want a secular state."

You don't seem to be paying attention. Sadr is not representative of the Shiite community and has not recently been fighting US forces. Zarqawi, the big Islamic Fundamentalist among the insurgents, is a Sunni. As for the Shiites, the main Shiite party, the UIA, wants a secular state(The NY Times recently had a good article detailing this). The Allawi list, also expected to gain a good number of Shiite votes, is secular.

	31-01-2005 03:16									#97
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http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0...6-396185,0.html

heres an article from Le Monde, the french newspaper in Paris.

It says that In Fallouja, and Al Anbar province, turnout was close to 0%. Over 8 million iraqis voted (60%). also, they list other cities in civil disorder that im unfamiliar with (prolly not reproted in US press) : Bakuba, Kirkuk, Mosul, Basorah??, all came under attack. 10,000 independant observes say that voter fraud was mininal

	31-01-2005 03:22									#98
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Sadr is not representative of the Shiite community and has not recently been fighting US forces.

I've seen independent polls showing Sadr has support of 37% of the Shia... or was it 37% have a favorable opinion of him. I forget. It was in Time magazine. But regardless, you should read more. You are obviously misinformed.

And Allawi has like zero public support. If he gets any significant chunk of the "voting", I'll be convinced the elections were a sham. He's a US stooge, and the Iraqi's know it.

	31-01-2005 03:49									#99
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Allawi has like zero public support? Really? You don't know what you're saying Sava. Allawi is a strong nationalist, but at the same time a shi'a. Making him popular amongst Shi'as and sunnis alike.

People who speak bad of these elections are the ones who are the stooges.

	31-01-2005 04:05									#101
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Just as if you haven't had enough slaps in the face this year, sava. I feel bad for you. Doesn't your ego ever crumble even though everything is not going your way?

	31-01-2005 04:08									#102
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quote: Doesn't your ego ever crumble even though everything is not going your way?

what isn't going my way?

	31-01-2005 04:11									#103
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quote: Originally posted by Sava what isn't going my way?

The US 2004 Election, the Iraq election...

	31-01-2005 04:14									#104
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And that ******* John Kerry he should shove it...

	31-01-2005 04:14									#105
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo The US 2004 Election,

I could really care less about Bush being in office still. It doesn't affect my daily life one bit. Plus, it gives me something to ***** about.

quote: the Iraq election...

I didn't realize I had a "way" when it came to this. I hardly know any of the people running, other than maybe Sistani and Allawi. And this affects my life even less. I could give half a **** about the Iraq elections. I just hope it goes well so the US can get the **** out of there without losing any more American lives.

	31-01-2005 04:23									#106
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I don't think the only (or even the outstanding) reason that 53% of the Sunnis support the insurgency is because "they want more than their fair share". It looks like a huge oversimplification (not to say a misrepresentation) to me.

Spiffor: You are right that around halfof the Sunni Arabs support the insurgency, however, much of this popular discontent amoung the Sunni has to do with the lose of their privilaged status. If you are used to having all the authority in government, all the best jobs in government owned industry (and it's all government owned), and having first crack at all the universities or foreign visas then you will not enjoy changes which take that away from you. Even if those changes are just and result from a democratic process.

	31-01-2005 04:27									#107
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quote: Originally posted by Heresson No matter what Americans did in Iraq, they'd still be hated there. That's the reality.

I depends on which neighborhoods you go to Heresson. I always felt perfectly safe in every Kurdish area I visited and we even had to periodically turn away Kurdish volunteers who wanted to help fight. No joke. The Shia also do not hate the coalition though they would like the coalition to leave as soon as the majority Shia government is set up. The Sunni Arabs, for a number of reasons, are the ones who are filled with hate.

	31-01-2005 04:33									#108
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Oerdin:
Yep, I can understand that the loss of priviledged status is an important source of bitterness for the Sunni ordinary people. And of course, such bitterness is unavoidable for some time.

But I have trouble imagining that the loss of priviledged status is the reason (let alone the only reason) why the Sunnis have such a strong support for violence. Not to explore the reasons, and to dismiss the possible demands, is only bound to failure IMHO. Unless one plans to exterminate a population, it's always a good idea to keep that population sufficiently satisfied so that it behaves. And saying "screw them", or not exploring their motivations, will only end in the utter alienation of the Sunni community. A viable democratic Iraq cannot cope with that.

	31-01-2005 04:37									#109
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quote: Originally posted by Sava Muqtada al Sadr and his militia are Shi'ite. Your perception of the insurgency is flawed. The Shia want an Islamic state. The Sunni's want a secular state.

It doesn't seem like any of them want a secular state except for the Assyrian Christians who fear being in an Islamic state. Sadr's play last summer was an attempt to over come his marginalization by Sistani because it had come out in the news that Sadr had assassinated several higher ranking clerics and had attempted to assassinate another one. Sadr is a junio0r ayatollah and he wanted to be the Grand Ayatollah so he started killing his rivals and when it looked like he was caught in the act Sadr attempted to become a popular revolutionary figure hoping that would sweep him into power like it did Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran.

By and large he failed and the fighting was limited to only a certain parts of three cities. What's more when Sadr ended up in control of those cities his Sharia law and religious courts so pissed the people off that many people asked the Americans to come back and remove the power of the sharia courts. Sistani is the one who controls the Shia and his list 169 will come out of the elections as a prime contender if not the winner while Sadr will be a bit player.

	31-01-2005 04:39									#110
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thanks for the info Oerdin...

btw, I'm just some dumb shmuck who relies on Time, Newsweek and online sources. It's nice to hear from someone who has actually been there.

	31-01-2005 04:43									#111
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Spiffor: Yeah, I agree something must be done to understand the Sunni Arabs better and the Sunnis themselves must learn to adjust their expectations to equal time being given to the other ethnic and religious groups. I imagine this is a similar situation to post WW1 Russia where the aristocracy, land owners, and industrialists were violently opposed to the communists due to their lose of status and property. The Russians were unable to avoid a decade of armed violence but maybe the Iraqis will.

	31-01-2005 04:47									#112
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Oerdin, I don't know if I got this before from you.. but do you think this was a success?

	31-01-2005 05:10									#113
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To answer the question posed in the now-closed thread: the death toll is apparently now at 44.

	31-01-2005 05:21									#114
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Oerdin, I don't know if I got this before from you.. but do you think this was a success?

Compared to the alternative, yes, it was a success. We know have a popularly elected Iraqi government so it will be more difficult for Sunni insurgents to claim the government is a puppet for western Imperialists. That said the insurgents are not going to go away and the low turn out in Sunni areas is a problem because it means Sunnis will now have little voice in the new government and more critically will have little say in how the perminent Constitution is drafted. The reality is Sunnis did it to themselves though so they can't really blame anyone else.

The hard facts on the ground will change slowly if at all and that mans the insurgency will continue those more and more it will be concentrated in the Sunnia triangle and more and more Shia, Kurds, Turkmen, and Assrians will see the 20% of the population who's Sunni Arab as the cause of their country's difficulty. That's might be better then before but it is still a dangerous situation.

	31-01-2005 06:15									#115
	A Success - On the face of it... Increase Your PM Length

In Kurdish and Shia areas the election was a resounding success and thankfully with little loss of life - however for a true democracy to operate all parts of the community should be able to feel that they can participate and for whatever reason the Sunnis didn't.

Some will say that they didn't want to for the reasons already espoused on this thread, but it seems to me that the true targets of insurgent intimidation were the Sunnis - hence their low turnout. I believe many genuinely wanted to vote but felt that it was too dangerous and did not because they did not feel safe/adequately protected.

How can the process be truly democratic if 25% of the country and close to 100% of one of the three major groups does not participate?

No matter how you look at it, people against democracy in Iraq will be able condemn the election as being skewed and non representative of the population - so the insurgents have their victory after all as the Sunnis wake up to an Iraqi govt in which they have little or no representation.

	31-01-2005 06:22									#116
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BTW - those who saw fit to character assassinate me on the other thread are the self same shower of incompetents who jumped on the WMD bandwagon...

Your stupidity was exposed then as it is now - but then being as this is apolyton, it is only to be expected.

	31-01-2005 06:34									#117
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS BTW - those who saw fit to character assassinate me on the other thread are the self same shower of incompetents who jumped on the WMD bandwagon...

I did not even post in OTF during the WMD bandwagon age, but I'm not even sure if you consider I 'character assassinated' you somewhere... if you don't then nevermind.

	31-01-2005 06:39									#118
	Re: A Success - On the face of it... Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS In Kurdish and Shia areas the election was a resounding success and thankfully with little loss of life - however for a true democracy to operate all parts of the community should be able to feel that they can participate and for whatever reason the Sunnis didn't. Some will say that they didn't want to for the reasons already espoused on this thread, but it seems to me that the true targets of insurgent intimidation were the Sunnis - hence their low turnout. I believe many genuinely wanted to vote but felt that it was too dangerous and did not because they did not feel safe/adequately protected. How can the process be truly democratic if 25% of the country and close to 100% of one of the three major groups does not participate? No matter how you look at it, people against democracy in Iraq will be able condemn the election as being skewed and non representative of the population - so the insurgents have their victory after all as the Sunnis wake up to an Iraqi govt in which they have little or no representation.

People against democracy doesn't care much about what the people want, they only want to rule by their way.

Anyway, are you really suggesting that 25 % of the iraqui population still shall decide what happens despite other wishes from the remaining population ? If the Sunnis are that suppressed by terroism, then it is up to them to fight it by voting, not the other way around.

	31-01-2005 06:41									#119
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Oh, I am struck to the quick, verily.

	31-01-2005 06:47									#120
	Re: Re: A Success - On the face of it... Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by BlackCat People against democracy doesn't care much about what the people want, they only want to rule by their way. Anyway, are you really suggesting that 25 % of the iraqui population still shall decide what happens despite other wishes from the remaining population ?

That is not what I wrote.

I am suggesting that 25% of the Iraqi population is able to have a proportional say in the government of the country and not be completely shut out from its politics.

quote: If the Sunnis are that suppressed by terroism, then it is up to them to fight it by voting, not the other way around.

Those are fine words coming from the safety of your home, but the fact is that much of the Sunni area is a virtual anarchy. The election in Sunni areas is a total farce simply because any people that wanted to vote didn't feel adequately protected to do so - in fact some polling stations themselves were closed, so if someone did want to vote they may have been unable to do so...