30-01-2005 01:25									#61
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Interesting Zogby survey:

quote: Iraq’s Sunday elections will be held against a backdrop of deep division between the country’s ethnic groups, with an overwhelming majority of Sunni Arabs refusing to vote in the January 30 elections, a new Abu Dhabi TV/Zogby International poll finds. The poll also finds majorities of both Iraq’s Shiites and Sunnis calling for a rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces from their soil. Zogby International polled 805 Iraqi adults from January 19 to 23, 2005 on behalf of television broadcaster Abu Dhabi TV. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. The survey, to be released at 5 p.m. ET on Abu Dhabi Television, found three-quarters (76%) of Sunni Arabs say they definitely will not vote in the January 30 elections, while just 9% say they are likely to vote. A majority of Shiites (80%) say they are likely to vote or definitely will vote, as are a smaller majority of Kurds (57%). Majorities of both Sunni Arabs (82%) and Shiites (69%) also favor U.S. forces withdrawing either immediately or after an elected government is in place. The poll also found that of Iraq’s ethnic and religious groups, only the Kurds believe the U.S. will “help” Iraq over the next five years, while half (49%) of Shiites and a majority (64%) of Sunni Arabs believe the U.S. will “hurt” Iraq. “There are deep divisions that exist—divisions that are so deep and pronounced that this election, instead of bringing people together, may very well tear them apart,” said Dr. James Zogby, an analyst for Zogby International and host of Abu Dhabi TV’s “Viewpoint”. “The closest thing to this in America isn’t red and blue states. It’s probably the election of 1860.” The poll also finds that, while a majority of Shiites (84%) and Kurds (64%) wish to hold the elections Sunday as planned, Sunni Arabs overwhelmingly favor delaying the vote (62%). “What’s truly alarming isn’t the number of Sunni Arabs who want to delay Sunday’s vote,” Zogby said. “What’s alarming is that more than half—53% in this survey—believe that ongoing attacks in Iraq are a legitimate form of resistance. With this group already boycotting the election, this makes for a very violent combination.” “Only the Kurds seem to favor a continued U.S. presence, and are likely to outright reject violent resistance,” Zogby added. The survey also asked Iraqis which nations they believed it was possible to foster improved relations with. While a majority of Iraqis believe relations can be improved between Iraq and neighbors Kuwait, Turkey, and Iran, all ethnic and religious groups overwhelmingly rejected improving relations with the State of Israel. Iraqis do not desire to remake their country in the image of neighboring Iran, however. Three-in-five (59%) favor a system where citizens are allowed to practice their own religion, while one-in-three (34%) would prefer an Islamic government. The survey was conducted throughout Iraq, including the cities of Baghdad, Hilla, Karbala and Kirkuk, as well as the Mohafazat (provinces) of Diala and Anbar. Abu Dhabi TV/Zogby International conducted interviews of 805 Iraqis. Field work dates were from 1/19/05 thru 1/23/05. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Slight weights were added to education, ethnicity, religion, gender to more accurately reflect the population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=957

If this poll is accurate, and only 9% of Sunni Arabs will vote, and 53% support the insurgency, well, that's not good news....

	30-01-2005 08:33									#62
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Well, the vote should begin in about a half hour, I guess. Good luck to the Iraqis.

	30-01-2005 08:35									#63
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quote: and only 9% of Sunni Arabs will vote

To be honest with you, I don't care much if the Sunni Arabs vote. They're only 20% of the population and shouldn't be catered to. If they want to be represented, they need to vote. They need to eat their spinach and accept a reasonable portion of the power available. That's the bottom line.

And Zogby suggesting that the vote in 1860 shouldn't have been held is rather undemocratic and unbecoming of him. We've held elections uninterrupted since the beginning, even during the Civil War, and we're a much stronger nation because of it.

	30-01-2005 08:51									#64
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Yes, good luck to the Iraqis. And Happy Election Day. It should be a day for celebration, like it was for the approx. 9,000 Iraqis here in Denmark who voted yesterday and the day before. The waited in line with both Iraqi and Danish flags, and some had brought drums to get the celebratory mood going. They were so proud and satisfied that they got to cast their vote, even the hour-long waits for some of them didn't spoil the atmosphere.

But then nobody was shooting at them or otherwise intimidating their newly gained democratic rights.

I hope it goes well in Iraq itself today.

	30-01-2005 09:27									#65
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark It really kills a joke to explain it, no? I freely admit it wasnt much good to begin with, though

I got a good chuckle out of it, at least.

	30-01-2005 09:35									#66
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Here's hoping that Ramo and Zogby are just as correct about the Iraqi election as they were about the US election!

	30-01-2005 19:15									#67
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Looks like turnout was reasonably high.

Amid very tight security...

quote: An Iraqi police officer checks a donkey, pulling a disabled man on a cart, before allowing it to enter a polling station in the country's second largest city of Basra, January 30, 2005. Insurgents unleashed a wave of bloody attacks on Iraq (news - web sites)'s historic election on Sunday, killing at least 22 people and wounding dozens in suicide bombings and mortar strikes at polling stations across the country. REUTERS/Atef Hassan

Damn it, I never knew the democrats had infiltrated Iraq already!

	30-01-2005 19:18									#68
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Alexander Horse's worst nightmare.

quote: An Iraqi woman cries tears of joy after casting her vote, outside a polling station in the holy city of Najaf, January 30, 2005. Insurgents threatening an election day bloodbath killed at least 22 people Sunday in a string of bombings and mortar attacks on polling stations in Iraq (news - web sites)'s first multi-party ballot in half a century. REUTERS/Faleh Kheiber

I'm happy that my taxmoney went toward this lady's happiness.

	30-01-2005 19:19									#69
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quote: Originally posted by DanS To be honest with you, I don't care much if the Sunni Arabs vote. They're only 20% of the population and shouldn't be catered to. If they want to be represented, they need to vote.

The problem is that if they do not vote, without representation they will never accept democratic regime.

	30-01-2005 19:27									#70
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They can vote at any time they wish. They will have another opportunity to vote at the end of the year. Why should we kowtow to a rejectionist minority?

Screw 'em. If they want to raise hell instead of voting, then when they shoot at us, we'll shoot back. If they shoot at Iraqi National Guard, then I hope that the ING will shoot back.

	30-01-2005 19:41									#71
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Screw 'em.

Typical words of failed policies.

It's pretty hard to ignore a part of the population that has grown violent, when it lives where the capital and plenty of economic interests are located. You can't exactly dismiss them like provincial rebels.

	30-01-2005 19:47									#72
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Yep, turnout at about 72%, death toll under 50. This is a great day for IRaq, and a firm statement by the Iraqi people showing that they favor a democracy.

	30-01-2005 19:48									#73
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Grown violent? The minority Sunni Arabs have been violent for decades in suppressing the majority. If they don't accept their rightful piece of the power pie, then I have no sympathy for them as the majority comes into its rightful place and has to put down a rebellion.

My vote is with the majority, who have been patient through all of their troubles and despite it all haven't suppressed the Sunni Arab minority. If there's anybody to whom we should kowtow, it's them. As an average American taxpayer, I have spent my $2,000 for them.

Besides, I have already stated that partition wouldn't be the worst thing to happen. And if Iraq is partitioned, the Sunni Arabs lose big time.

Attachment: capt.lon12001301134.iraq_elections_lon120.jpg
This has been downloaded 100 time(s).

Last edited by DanS on 30-01-2005 at 19:55

	30-01-2005 20:05									#74
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This is a touching event in a way, reminding you of how precious democracy is. It puts it into perspective all the people in the USA who moaned and whined about rain or long lines and used them as an excuse to not vote, whereas in Iraq people risked death to vote in hopes of a future of living in a country where the people are soverign.

	30-01-2005 20:13									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Yep, turnout at about 72%, death toll under 50.

How will MOBIUS cream himself over those numbers?

	30-01-2005 20:20									#76
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quote: Iraqis Brave Bombs to Vote in Their Millions Email this Story Jan 30, 9:12 AM (ET) By Luke Baker BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Some came on crutches, others walked for miles then struggled to read the ballot, but across Iraq, millions turned out to vote Sunday, defying insurgents who threatened a bloodbath. Suicide bombs and mortars killed at least 27 people, but voters still came out in force for the first multi-party poll in 50 years. In some places they cheered with joy at their first chance to cast a free vote, in others they shared chocolates. Even in Falluja, the Sunni city west of Baghdad that was a militant stronghold until a U.S. assault in November, a steady stream of people turned out, confounding expectations. Lines of veiled women clutching their papers waited to vote. "We want to be like other Iraqis, we don't want to always be in opposition," said Ahmed Jassim, smiling after he voted. In Baquba, a rebellious city northeast of Baghdad, spirited crowds clapped and cheered at one voting station. In Mosul, scene of some of the worst insurgent attacks in recent months, U.S. and local officials said turnout was surprisingly high. One of the first to vote was President Ghazi al-Yawar, a Sunni Muslim Arab with a large tribal following, who cast his ballot inside Baghdad's fortress-like Green Zone. "Thanks be to God," he told reporters, emerging from the booth with his right index finger stained with bright blue ink to show he had voted. "I hope everyone will go out and vote." In the relatively secure Kurdish north, people flowed steadily to the polls. One illiterate man in Arbil, 76-year-old Said Rasool, came alone and was turned away, unable to read the ballot paper. He said he would return with someone to help. Even in the so-called "triangle of death," a hotbed of Sunni insurgency south of Baghdad, turnout was solid, officials said. FESTIVE VOTING In mainly Shi'ite Basra, Iraq's second biggest city, hundreds of voters queued patiently at polling centers. "I am not afraid," said Samir Khalil Ibrahim. "This is like a festival for all Iraqis." A small group cheered in Baghdad as Sharif Ali bin al-Hussein, a descendant of Iraq's last king, went to the polls. Ali leads a constitutional monarchy slate in the election. Western Baghdad polling stations were busy, with long queues of voters. Most went about the process routinely, filling in their ballots and leaving quickly without much emotion. Others brought chocolates for those waiting in line, and shared festive juice drinks inside the voting station. Samir Hassan, 32, who lost his leg in a car bomb blast in October, was determined to vote. "I would have crawled here if I had to. I don't want terrorists to kill other Iraqis like they tried to kill me. Today I am voting for peace," he said, leaning on his metal crutches, determination in his reddened eyes. In Sadr City, a poor Shi'ite neighborhood of northeast Baghdad, thick lines of voters turned out, women in black abaya robes in one line, men in another. Some of the first to vote countrywide were policemen, out in force to protect polling centers from attack, part of draconian security measures put in place by U.S. and Iraqi officials. In Samarra, a restive Sunni-Shi'ite city north of Baghdad, the crackle of gunfire was heard minutes after polls opened. After a few hours, only about 100 people had voted at one of two polling sites. One woman, covered head-to-toe in black robes, kept her face concealed, but said she voted with pride. In nearby Baiji, some people were unable to vote because electoral officials failed to turn up. "We are waiting for the manager with the key," said an election worker, apologizing. "VOTE FOR HUMANITY" In the shrine city of Najaf in the Shi'ite heartland, hundreds of people walked calmly to polling stations. Security around Najaf, attacked before, was some of the tightest. "This is a wedding for all Iraqis. I congratulate all Iraqis on their newfound freedom and democracy," said Jaida Hamza, dressed in a black Islamic veil that also hid her face. Shi'ites, who make up 60 percent of Iraq's people, are expected to win the vote, overturning years of oppression. In Kirkuk, a city divided between Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen, Kurds turned out in force, as expected, but there were signs Arabs and Turkmen were boycotting, angered by what they see as voting rules that favor Kurds. One of the biggest surprises was Mosul, a mixed Sunni Arab and Kurd city in the far north. "So far it's gone very well, much better than expected," said a U.S. army officer. Baghdad's mayor was overcome with emotion by the turnout of voters at City Hall, where he said thousands were celebrating. "I cannot describe what I am seeing. It is incredible. This is a vote for the future, for the children, for the rule of law, for humanity, for love," Alaa al-Tamimi told Reuters.

http://reuters.myway.com/article/20...N-SCENE-DC.html

...

quote: Samir Hassan, 32, who lost his leg in a car bomb blast in October, was determined to vote. "I would have crawled here if I had to. I don't want terrorists to kill other Iraqis like they tried to kill me. Today I am voting for peace," he said, leaning on his metal crutches, determination in his reddened eyes.

This man is who we fought for.

	30-01-2005 20:49									#77
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A total and utter success. In fact it is so successful, I'm starting to cry. I never been so right in years. The election shows such huge turn-out even in Sunni areas.

Attention to the leftists: Please apologize to the Iraqi people for attempting to call them weak.

I'm so happy and delighted at this election! THUMBS UP FOR THE IRAQI PEOPLE IN DEFYING THE NON-EXISTENT BACKING TO TERRORISTIC THREATS.

	30-01-2005 20:56									#78
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This has turned out to be an historic day for Iraq.

Shame on the people who were only hoping for the worst, and those who say that some parts of the world will never be "ready" for Democracy.

	30-01-2005 21:07									#79
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From the BBC.

quote: Posted by Zeina election candidate, Baghdad, 30 January Today I went and voted! I got up early, went out at 10am with my family and walked to the polling station about 10 minutes from my home. There were many people walking in the street, everyone was running around smiling and happy, it was just like a feast day. We queued for about 10 minutes and they searched all of us, they even went through my handbag. Then I went in and voted and waited for my family to vote too. Everyone is so excited. We heard many bombs this morning but we didn't care because we have to use our right to vote. So many people were afraid to go this morning, but now it seems in the afternoon that more people have voted. I am so happy, so glad. Later this afternoon we will meet up with our friends for a celebration. We will have a meal, drink tea and eat cake. Then we will have to head back home because of the 7pm curfew. I spoke to relatives of mine in Najaf and they said people there had voted and that everything was fine. They too were so happy. If we are elected then I will go to my party offices in a few days and they will decide what we should do. I won't find out if I have won for two or three days. I don't think we shall win because we didn't have many posters or people handing out our papers in the street - so very few people really knew about us. It was just not safe to campaign. But it doesn't matter. Today is a great day. Read about Zeina and the other log contributors Comment on this post -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOBODY AROUND HERE VOTED Posted by Tariq al-Ani law student, Hit, 30 January The city is completely empty today, all you see are the US troops patrolling. There have been some small clashes, but nothing major. At least the water and power has been good today. The atmosphere is very edgy - no-one can guess what's going to happen. I did not vote. Nobody did around here did, despite the leaflets dropped by airplanes encouraging us to do so. Last night and this morning I stayed at my relative's home. Yesterday my wife was afraid because we could hear many vehicles going past where we were, but they didn't seem to cause any trouble and after it went quiet she managed to relax. I did not vote for many reasons. The most obvious is simply security - no-one went to the polling station, it was too dangerous. Also, we are not used to this. In the past it was all propaganda, now we have a new process and people here are just not used to it. Iraqis don't know what to do. Also the candidates... I admire them for having the courage to stand, but they don't seem to have any real policies or programmes for the future. I've had no communication with anyone because of the curfew so I haven't spoken about it with any of my friends, although we've watched a lot of it on TV. I suppose tomorrow we can all sit down and talk about it. It should be interesting! For the future... personally I think that half a loaf is better than none as the British would say. We have no option at the moment here - the situation is so out of control that we must adapt to what is happening. It may be an important day for Iraq, but we'll see. I hope it is significant, it's a chance to move from something unilateral - which we had for so many years - to something multilateral. We want a legitimate government that will take care of Iraq. We want it to be an open government that creates good relationships with others and ensures our security and prosperity. Surely that is a natural right for any human being? Read about Tariq and the other log contributors Comment on this post -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by Louay al-Tahan Iraqi businessman, Baghdad, 30 January We were quite worried early in the morning, so we decided to wait till things were clearer. We kept close watch on the TV and called friends and relatives. We heard some explosions but not as loud as they usually sound. Finally at around 11:00 local time we decided that it is safe enough to try to vote. The polling station is about 200m from where I live in the Mansoor district of Baghdad, so we walked there and it was amazing. The turnout was high. All our neighbours and friends were there. We were welcomed by a group of election officials, and then search very closely. Everybody was smiling and happy even the security people - something we are not used to here in Iraq. All the people leaving the polling station were so pleased showing off their finger marked with indelible ink. We went in, another group of officials checked our ID cards against the list of registered voters. A ballot paper was handed to us. We waited in line for an empty voting booth. I made my selection along with my wife and then put them in the ballot boxes. It was great no-one interfered or imposed their opinion on any one. The officials were very helpful. The helped some elderly people inside, gave general instructions on how to use the ballot papers. When we left the station people were congratulating each other. In all, I think it has been a great success¿ as far as I can see transparent and not biased in any way. During the whole process I didn't see any Americans in the area. Afterwards we took loads of photos with friends and family. I called friends in other parts of town to congratulate them or to encourage them to vote. Later in the afternoon, at about 4 PM, it felt so safe and quite, I took my wife and two daughters for a walk. This is something we haven't done for quite a while. We walked by two busy polling stations. It was amazing people we don't know were asking us if we had voted, and congratulating us on doing so.

	30-01-2005 21:10									#80
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Grown violent? The minority Sunni Arabs have been violent for decades in suppressing the majority. If they don't accept their rightful piece of the power pie, then I have no sympathy for them as the majority comes into its rightful place and has to put down a rebellion.

I don't think the only (or even the outstanding) reason that 53% of the Sunnis support the insurgency is because "they want more than their fair share". It looks like a huge oversimplification (not to say a misrepresentation) to me.

	30-01-2005 21:14									#81
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quote: Originally posted by Lazarus and the Gimp From the BBC.

Funny how the BBC contradicts facts. Single testimonies of some areas. BBC doesn't understand 72% of people turned out. And turnout in Sunnis area has been big.

	30-01-2005 21:34									#82
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What the hell are you talking about? You didn't read what was written, did you?

	30-01-2005 21:48									#83
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quote: Originally posted by The Emperor Fabulous What the hell are you talking about? You didn't read what was written, did you?

Well I was reading the second one... only.. heh.. sorry.

	30-01-2005 22:25									#84
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I don't think the only (or even the outstanding) reason that 53% of the Sunnis support the insurgency is because "they want more than their fair share". It looks like a huge oversimplification (not to say a misrepresentation) to me.

No matter what Americans did in Iraq, they'd still be hated there. That's the reality.

	30-01-2005 22:27									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Heresson No matter what Americans did in Iraq, they'd still be hated there. That's the reality.

Is it?

	30-01-2005 22:45									#86
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Well I was reading the second one... only.. heh.. sorry.

No hard feelings

	30-01-2005 23:18									#87
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Yes, well, how long is the euphoria going to last?

Past the problems of securing a majority, strong leadership?

Past the problems of acceptiing a new Government as legitimate?

Past the problems of powerful groups actually wanting to obey any new Government?

Past sectional, sectarian and ethic differences, still unresolved?

I remain skeptical.

	30-01-2005 23:34									#88
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Spiffor: The two major indeologies fueling the insurgents are:

- Baathist Rejectionists who want to restore the old Regime to power.

- Sunni Islamic Fundamentalists.

Sucsess by either would imply Sunni Dominance over the country.

	30-01-2005 23:44									#89
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Another reason for hope: The limitations of the insurgents to do more damage and significantly disrupt the elections, despite threats to do so. The insurgents swore a ful fledged attack and promised to kill anyone who voted. I expected they would be out in full force and try some Tet Offesnvie type attack; I expected they would try to use their forces to attack and sieze control of polling stations as long as possible to destory the votes and massacre the voters in line. Yet the attacks seemed limited to bomb attacks. This raises serious questions as to whether the insurgents actually hace the ability to take and hold ground as opposed to simply commiting terrorist acts against their own people. This is good news for the Iraqi Army, who we are training to be able to maintain order in the country.

	30-01-2005 23:44									#90
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Funny how the BBC contradicts facts. Single testimonies of some areas. BBC doesn't understand 72% of people turned out. And turnout in Sunnis area has been big.

You know, I was wondering how many anti-BBC knee-jerkers would make a fool of themselves...