15-02-2005 19:50									#31
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko So what? If you really think the relative merits of Syrian sabre rattling makes the Bush admin's comments any more reasonable, you're really not in a position to discuss any politics. The people in Lebanon and Syria are NOT going to go "well, since the Syrian government has said some mean things, I don't think the Americans mean anything bad by that".

are you actually paying any attention to what people in lebanon are saying - i dont think mclellans comments are uppermost in their minds, now.

'This (Lebanese) regime is backed by the Syrians. This is the regime of terrorists and terrorism that was able yesterday to wipe out Rafik al-Hariri," Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said after presenting his condolences to Hariri's family in Beirut. '

	15-02-2005 19:51									#32
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark are you actually paying any attention to what people in lebanon are saying - i dont think mclellans comments are uppermost in their minds, now.

So nobody listens to the US then? They might as well be talking to the air?

	15-02-2005 19:58									#33
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko So nobody listens to the US then? They might as well be talking to the air?

we stake out our diplomatic position, for the leaders, and for the world community. But i dont think anyone is going around in lebanon concerned about the US words. Hell, one of the most important leaders in their country has just been murdered. Your agenda just may not be theirs.

Heres what one Lebanese MP said 'We hold the Lebanese government and the Syrian government, the power behind it, responsible for the crime," said Lebanese MP Bassem Sabeh. '

Look, it isnt all about the US.

	15-02-2005 20:00									#34
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Yes, what opposition Lebanese are saying.

I doubt a poll will be taken anyhow- thought I would guess most Lebanese would suspect a Syrian conspiracy (this is the ME). I don't know aboput violence flaring up thought, as some people claim.

	15-02-2005 20:04									#35
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark we stake out our diplomatic position, for the leaders, and for the world community. But i dont think anyone is going around in lebanon concerned about the US words. Hell, one of the most important leaders in their country has just been murdered. Your agenda just may not be theirs. Heres what one Lebanese MP said 'We hold the Lebanese government and the Syrian government, the power behind it, responsible for the crime," said Lebanese MP Bassem Sabeh. ' Look, it isnt all about the US.

It wasn't about the US until the US decided it wants to connect the assassination to a Syrian withdrawal.

What if Syria decides to tighten their grip in Lebanon, out of concern that the US is going to meddle? What if it results in another round of sectarian fighting in Lebanon? What if that then topples the Syrian government, allowing the fundies lurking in the back to make a power play?

It's not a big chance of that happening, but the US comments certainly made that chance a bit bigger. And for what? Some useless political point scoring, nothing more.

	15-02-2005 20:11									#36
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Yes, what opposition Lebanese are saying. I doubt a poll will be taken anyhow- thought I would guess most Lebanese would suspect a Syrian conspiracy (this is the ME). I don't know aboput violence flaring up thought, as some people claim.

BBC "Grief turned to anger among Mr Hariri's supporters, and mourners in the capital tried to torch the local offices of the Syrian Baath Party."

But i think ge is right, this probably wont expand in the near future - everyone has to sit and figure out the politics first.

	15-02-2005 20:13									#37
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko It wasn't about the US until the US decided it wants to connect the assassination to a Syrian withdrawal. What if Syria decides to tighten their grip in Lebanon, out of concern that the US is going to meddle? What if it results in another round of sectarian fighting in Lebanon? What if that then topples the Syrian government, allowing the fundies lurking in the back to make a power play? It's not a big chance of that happening, but the US comments certainly made that chance a bit bigger. And for what? Some useless political point scoring, nothing more.

arguably so did the UNSC resolution. The US reasserted its support for that, which is completely appropriate - and shouldnt be be held back by a chain of what ifs.

	15-02-2005 20:24									#38
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark arguably so did the UNSC resolution. The US reasserted its support for that, which is completely appropriate - and shouldnt be be held back by a chain of what ifs.

The resolution wasn't in response to an assassination of a prominent figure. The UN also isn't distrusted and disliked (some would say hated) like the US in the region. If you can't see the difference, I once again have to point out that you shouldn't be discussing these things at all.

As for what ifs, it's called knowing the potential consequences of your acts and planning accordingly. Just like doing a risk/benefit assessment.
Even though you might want to emulate your president and his administration in their ignorance, I must burst your bubble and tell you that actions do in fact have consequences.

	15-02-2005 20:30									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko I must burst your bubble and tell you that actions do in fact have consequences.

Something the Syrians should learn.

	15-02-2005 20:31									#40
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Something the Syrians should learn.

So you do in fact agree with me and admit you were wrong?

	15-02-2005 20:34									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko What if Syria decides to tighten their grip in Lebanon, out of concern that the US is going to meddle? .

IE when the Syrians take advantage of post-assasination disorder to tighten their grip, they will blame the US, and this statement in particular. Thanks for letting us know the Damascus party line.

	15-02-2005 20:36									#42
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark IE when the Syrians take advantage of post-assasination disorder to tighten their grip, they will blame the US, and this statement in particular. Thanks for letting us know the Damascus party line.

Doesn't make the US' statement any smarter now does it?

	15-02-2005 20:40									#43
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko Doesn't make the US' statement any smarter now does it?

Bye, troll.

	15-02-2005 20:42									#44
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Bye, troll.

Troll? Is this your standard response whenever you lose an argument?

	15-02-2005 21:12									#45
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WaPo

"During the debate last October, a car bomb severely wounded Marwan Hamadi, a former economy minister, and killed his driver days after Hamadi had resigned his cabinet post in protest. Hamadi is aligned with the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a vocal critic of Syria's presence in Lebanon and a Hariri ally. "

Odd how these gangster types mainly seem to assasinate Lebanese pols who have opposed Syria.

	15-02-2005 21:20									#46
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FT:

'What happened yesterday was a clear and strong warning to the opposition,” said Abdelwahab Badrakhan, a columnist at the pan-Arab al-Hayat newspaper. “Hariri was the strongest opposition leader and the most internationally protected. His killing sends the message that no one is protected.” '

	15-02-2005 21:26									#47
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark WaPo "During the debate last October, a car bomb severely wounded Marwan Hamadi, a former economy minister, and killed his driver days after Hamadi had resigned his cabinet post in protest. Hamadi is aligned with the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a vocal critic of Syria's presence in Lebanon and a Hariri ally. " Odd how these gangster types mainly seem to assasinate Lebanese pols who have opposed Syria.

At this point you should notice that I only said it was possible there were crime links. You wouldn't want to be fighting strawmen, now would you?

	15-02-2005 21:28									#48
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LOTM:

Why are you arguing with him? It's pointless.

	15-02-2005 21:34									#49
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk LOTM: Why are you arguing with him? It's pointless.

Pfft. You guys should learn to debate before trying to act all intelligent.

	15-02-2005 21:39									#50
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See?

	15-02-2005 21:48									#52
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[conspiracy nut mode] The bomb was probably placed there by the CIA or a group working for them (possibly aliens). To destabilize the region and give the US a reason to attack Syria. It can not happen you say? Think, the Berlin Reichtag in 1936 and the Tonkin Bay in 1964...

OMG US is teh Nazi!!!! [/conspiracy nut mode]

Nah, seriously. Syria had the most to gain by killing Hariri (as lotm has shown)

	15-02-2005 21:58									#53
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At this point I should also point out that my beef in this thread was mainly the US admin's statements following the assassination. It doesn't matter who did the bombing, it's still stupid.

Personally, I don't think it was the Syrian government. They're not exactly comfortable in their power, and blowing up a huge suicide car bomb in Lebanon just to scare the opposition seems an entirely stupid move.
It's more likely that Hariri pissed off some Islamist fundies for one reason or another.

But if it does turn out to be the Syrians, then so be it.

	15-02-2005 22:17									#54
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Jerusalem Post:

'Still, analysts and Lebanese were confused by the murder. While everyone agreed that Syria was the obvious culprit because of Hariri's calls for its withdrawal, killing him does more harm than good for Syria.

"It's totally illogical that Syria would do it," said Prof. Eyal Zisser, a Syria expert at the Dayan Institute for Middle East Studies at Tel Aviv University. "It would be such a stupid move on their part. Everyone is watching them and they don't want to destabilize Lebanon."

But, the order for the assassination may not have come from the Syrian government.

"I wouldn't point the finger at Damascus necessarily," Simon Williams, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, told The Jerusalem Post. "I would look at those acting on behalf of Syria. There are people making decisions inside Lebanon on Syria's behalf that I really don't think have the backing of Syrian leadership."

Reuven Merhav, the former director of Israel's quasi-embassy in Beirut in 1983 and later a director-general of the Foreign Ministry, pointed to Hariri's conflict with Lebanese President Emile Lahoud.

"He didn't make it a secret that he thinks Lahoud is a puppet of the Syrians," he said.

Merhav said Hariri could have been killed for business-related reasons, adding, "He did very big reconstruction projects in Beirut."

Most agreed that the sensational attack did not suit the style of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

"Bashar? It's certainly not his style," said Edward Walker, president of the Middle East Institute in Washington. "I don't think it's something he would do."

Walker told the Post it was not inconceivable that Bashar knew nothing about it and intelligence agents were acting independently with their Lebanese counterparts.

"The same Syrian security services that were there during the civil war in Lebanon are still around," he said.

If Assad was not behind the murder then, as US Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz said recently, "Bashar is not in control."

Analysts agree.

"Bashar doesn't have control over his country and his people," Walker said. "He doesn't have the death grip [that his father did] over the security forces."'

	15-02-2005 22:19									#55
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Now that JP article isn't that much off from what I just said, don't you agree?

	15-02-2005 22:25									#56
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If Assad's grip is slipping, should we start worrying about Syria itself imploding?

	15-02-2005 22:28									#57
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist If Assad's grip is slipping, should we start worrying about Syria itself imploding?

That's a scary proposition, because the fundies will try to seize power if that happens. And Syria's screwed economy sure doesn't help in keeping things stable.

	15-02-2005 22:52									#58
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This is obviously a Syrian job. This is Syria saying "You can elect anyone you want as long as he's our b*tch."

	15-02-2005 23:16									#59
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US Ambassador in Syria Summoned Home

	15-02-2005 23:17									#60
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The US it appears is pulling the diplomats out.

AP Story

quote: Feb 15, 12:41 PM (ET) By BARRY SCHWEID WASHINGTON (AP) - The United States has recalled its ambassador to Syria amid rising tensions over the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon, a U.S. official said Tuesday. Before departing, U.S. Ambassador Margaret Scobey delivered a stern note, called a demarche in diplomatic parlance, to the Syrian government, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The Bush administration condemned Monday's killing in Beirut of Hariri, the billionaire construction magnate who masterminded the recovery of his country and insisted that Syria comply with a U.N. resolution calling for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.

damn x-post