15-02-2005 23:28									#61
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

As an aside, you have to remember that this is not the Assad who took power, it is his son -- who was living abroad when his father died and had to be, *ahem* encouraged by his father's associates to come into power.

He is also known as "Gameboy" Assad.

	15-02-2005 23:38									#62
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Jaakko Now that JP article isn't that much off from what I just said, don't you agree?

Not quite - its more complicated, pointing out that while Baby Assad may not be involved, other elements in the Syrian establishment could be, or Syrias local Lebanese proteges could be.

	15-02-2005 23:40									#63
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Note that Pres. Chirac is calling for an international investigation. This is IIUC, not being seen as friendly by Syria. The UNSC is discussing a possible response.

	15-02-2005 23:54									#64
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Not quite - its more complicated, pointing out that while Baby Assad may not be involved, other elements in the Syrian establishment could be, or Syrias local Lebanese proteges could be.

Indeed, I hadn't thought of the possibility that the Syrian govt might be losing control like that.

However, the "business connection" was there, as was the doubt that the actual government would do it, because it would be really stupid of them.

	16-02-2005 20:00									#65
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Talk on the tube by experts point out that Syria is the main culprit behind the continued Sunni insurgency in Iraq and that we cannot solve that problem unless Syria changes its policies. The events in Lebanon indicate, however, that the direction of Syrian politics is vectored toward increasing hostility towards the West. The experts also say that the Syrians view the United States as a barking dog, and do not take our posturing seriously.

All this sounds exactly like Saddam II. Saddam could have taken a conciliatory tone after the Gulf War. Instead, he continued his dogged defiance. He thought that France and Russia, among others, would protect him at the UN.

Hopefully, this time France and Russia will not start sending Assad false signals of support that will only encourage his continued journey down the path to war. A united front may force Syria to moderate its policies.

	17-02-2005 00:49									#66
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: A syrian job?

I don't know about that. Lebanese politics have been fairly stable for a while, so I don't see any reason why Syria should try to rock the boat, particularly considering that Dear Leader doesn't need much of an excuse to go around invading countries in the region. Some have suggested that it may be related to al-Qaeda hits against Saudi targets (Hariri has Saudi citizenship, is a major Saudi contractor, etc.).

	17-02-2005 01:03									#67
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: A syrian job? I don't know about that. Lebanese politics have been fairly stable for a while, so I don't see any reason why Syria should try to rock the boat, particularly considering that Dear Leader doesn't need much of an excuse to go around invading countries in the region. Some have suggested that it may be related to al-Qaeda hits against Saudi targets (Hariri has Saudi citizenship, is a major Saudi contractor, etc.).

Stable? Syria started moves to extend the term of Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president. This created lots of discontent, and has joined the Druze led by Jumblatt with the Maronites. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, withdrew from the Lahoud cabinet (as did a Druze, who was also bombed, but survived). Hariri is widely thought to be involved with French and US support for UNSC 1559, which called on Syria to quit Lebanon. Hariri was clearly a potential leader of a post-occupation Lebanon. Syria was clearly feeling under stress, not to mention being rather unhappy with an Israel-Pal peace process that leaves them in the cold.

Fear of Bush? With the US army tied up in Iraq, with the US trying to renew relations with Europe, with a US public presumably skeptical of any new adventures, this would be the IDEAL time to take action - show the world , and would be dissidents in Lebanon and elsewhere that US power is hollow, we can kill the most popular pol in Lebanon right in front of his own posh real estate developments, and the US cant do a damned thing.

You certainly dont want to wait, till the balance of forces is less favorable.

	17-02-2005 01:06									#68
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Jaakko At this point I should also point out that my beef in this thread was mainly the US admin's statements following the assassination. It doesn't matter who did the bombing, it's still stupid. .

We know where your beef lies. It's anything that the US says. We know quiet well where your coming from thank you

	17-02-2005 01:40									#69
	Got spare money?

quote: Stable? Syria started moves to extend the term of Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president. This created lots of discontent, and has joined the Druze led by Jumblatt with the Maronites. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, withdrew from the Lahoud cabinet (as did a Druze, who was also bombed, but survived). Hariri is widely thought to be involved with French and US support for UNSC 1559, which called on Syria to quit Lebanon. Hariri was clearly a potential leader of a post-occupation Lebanon. Syria was clearly feeling under stress, not to mention being rather unhappy with an Israel-Pal peace process that leaves them in the cold.

Stable in the sense that there hasn't been very much violence in Lebanese politics for a while.

Hariri was a Syrian client too, mind you. It's just that he objected to ignoring the term-limit of the President in the Lebanese Constitution. Seems like a pretty petty reason for an assassination, and given that hits in Lebanese politics isn't in vogue, I'm more inclined to say that anti-Saudi types did it.

quote: Fear of Bush? With the US army tied up in Iraq, with the US trying to renew relations with Europe, with a US public presumably skeptical of any new adventures, this would be the IDEAL time to take action - show the world , and would be dissidents in Lebanon and elsewhere that US power is hollow, we can kill the most popular pol in Lebanon right in front of his own posh real estate developments, and the US cant do a damned thing. You certainly dont want to wait, till the balance of forces is less favorable.

You seem to be under the impression that this White House acts rationally...

	17-02-2005 01:53									#70
	Remove this text

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Ramo

quote: Stable? Syria started moves to extend the term of Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president. This created lots of discontent, and has joined the Druze led by Jumblatt with the Maronites. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, withdrew from the Lahoud cabinet (as did a Druze, who was also bombed, but survived). Hariri is widely thought to be involved with French and US support for UNSC 1559, which called on Syria to quit Lebanon. Hariri was clearly a potential leader of a post-occupation Lebanon. Syria was clearly feeling under stress, not to mention being rather unhappy with an Israel-Pal peace process that leaves them in the cold. Stable in the sense that there hasn't been very much violence in Lebanese politics for a while. Hariri was a Syrian client too, mind you. It's just that he objected to ignoring the term-limit of the President in the Lebanese Constitution. Seems like a pretty petty reason for an assassination, and given that hits in Lebanese politics isn't in vogue, I'm more inclined to say that anti-Saudi types did it.

Its your own loyalists who you most have to punish when they betray you. and he didnt just object - from what Ive read he played a leading role in encouraging UNSC 1559, a very bad thing from Syrias perspective. As for hits not being in vogue, what about that Druze guy who was attacked in October?

quote: Fear of Bush? With the US army tied up in Iraq, with the US trying to renew relations with Europe, with a US public presumably skeptical of any new adventures, this would be the IDEAL time to take action - show the world , and would be dissidents in Lebanon and elsewhere that US power is hollow, we can kill the most popular pol in Lebanon right in front of his own posh real estate developments, and the US cant do a damned thing. You certainly dont want to wait, till the balance of forces is less favorable. You seem to be under the impression that this White House acts rationally...

Even if you think Bush is super aggressive, all the more reason not to wait till Bush is in a stronger position.

Of course IF more folks than just the US take this seriously, than it does look like a bad move on Syrias part. Which is why the French push for an investigation is important.


And should be supported, i might add.

	17-02-2005 02:12									#71
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Sprayber We know where your beef lies. It's anything that the US says. We know quiet well where your coming from thank you

I also have no respect for mindless cheerleaders like yourself. Face it dumbasses, the Bush admin jumped the shark to engage in empty posturing. For ****'s sake, nobody knows who did it yet.

	18-02-2005 03:22									#72
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Its your own loyalists who you most have to punish when they betray you. and he didnt just object - from what Ive read he played a leading role in encouraging UNSC 1559, a very bad thing from Syrias perspective.

I'm not saying that Syria doesn't have a motive. Clearly they do (as do a lot of others). But I'm not certain that they would risk such a high-profile assassination given that situation.

quote: As for hits not being in vogue, what about that Druze guy who was attacked in October?

I don't remember that. What happened?

quote: And should be supported, i might add.

Absolutely.

	18-02-2005 03:28									#73
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

The previous assasination.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/...htm?POE=NEWISVA

	18-02-2005 03:34									#74
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Found this statement by Hariri interesting:

quote: Hariri, who was in Paris when informed about the attack, urged Lebanese to "thwart all attempts to stir up sedition and dissension." "The criminal and condemned attempt to assassinate ... Hamadeh comes in the context of these (sedition) attempts," Hariri said in a statement released by his office.

	18-02-2005 03:38									#75
	Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by Ramo Found this statement by Hariri interesting: quote: Hariri, who was in Paris when informed about the attack, urged Lebanese to "thwart all attempts to stir up sedition and dissension." "The criminal and condemned attempt to assassinate ... Hamadeh comes in the context of these (sedition) attempts," Hariri said in a statement released by his office.

Yup, well Hamadeh had just left the govt, while Hariri was still in it. No one has said Hariri wasnt a player. You dont get to be real estate billionaire, much less to make things happen in the govt of a place like Lebanon, without being one.

	18-02-2005 04:11									#76
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Being a player is one thing, but assuming that Syria was responsible, condemning talk that Syria tried to assasinate a guy because he resigned over the extension of Lahoud's term as sedition, and then resigning over the extension of Lahoud's term strikes me as pretty damn idiotic. Decidedly unplayerlike.

That said, the assassination attempt is certainly suspicious, so I'd say that it's more likely Syria was involved in Hariri's assassination than not.

	18-02-2005 04:25									#77
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Ramo Being a player is one thing, but assuming that Syria was responsible, condemning talk that Syria tried to assasinate a guy because he resigned over the extension of Lahoud's term as sedition, and then resigning over the extension of Lahoud's term strikes me as pretty damn idiotic. Decidedly unplayerlike.

well d'uh, obviously the man thought that HE was too big, too rich, and too well protected to be taken out, He had ALOT more security than the other guy did. Such arrogance is not uncommon, and is not always unjustified.

	18-02-2005 20:23									#78
	Syrian Intel chief replaced. Tired of ads?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4277595.stm


Hmm, maybe for going to far without Assads permission? Taking the fall for the hit, without having forecast the reaction?

	18-02-2005 20:56									#79
	Re: Syrian Intel chief replaced. Enter the AD-FREE zone

That may be the first of a series of appeasement measures from Assad. I wouldn't be surprised if diplomats are already busy defusing the situation behind the scene, with western diplomats using the public statements as a resource to intimidate Assad more.

	18-02-2005 21:01									#80
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

The thing that puzzles me is why France wants Syria out of Lebanon? The Syrian troops protects Hezbollah, one of the Zionist Entity's most aggressive enemies. Undermining Hezbollah would seemingly defeat one of France's long term policy objectives.

	18-02-2005 21:10									#81
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

We have no long term objective of destroying Israel. Our policies in the ME are opportunistic, and not driven by any long-term goal. The most important "visionary" goal French diplomacy has for the ME is to find a workable peace between Israel and Palestine, because it would solve many international and domestic problems, but that's about it.

	18-02-2005 21:12									#82
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Since when is attacking Israel one of France's long-term policy objectives?

Cynical interpretation; France wants their toy back.

	18-02-2005 21:21									#83
	Inflate your Upload Space

Ah, but on whose side was France in '67? The stated goal at that time was destruction of the Zionist entity. France has not changed sides since, and continues to align itself with those whose goal is indeed a form of peace, the form one gets when your enemy is no more.

Remember Carthage!

	18-02-2005 21:43									#84
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by Ned France has not changed sides since, and continues to align itself with those whose goal is indeed a form of peace, the form one gets when your enemy is no more.

You mean, the form of fatal hostiltiy that involves close cooperation between secret services and the doubling of trade volume?

France doesn't align itself with ME countries. The only country to which we align ourselves is Germany these days (It is the only country whose interests we make a continuous effort at satisfying, because a solid cooperation is mutually beneficial). This Syria epüisode proves once again that our side in the ME is our own. We try to get as much as possible from the given opportunities.

	18-02-2005 21:54									#85
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Spiffor We have no long term objective of destroying Israel. Our policies in the ME are opportunistic, and not driven by any long-term goal. The most important "visionary" goal French diplomacy has for the ME is to find a workable peace between Israel and Palestine, because it would solve many international and domestic problems, but that's about it.

Agreed, France (as a state) isnt interested in destroying Israel, but in "tying down Gulliver" and in cultivating arabs. While many of those arabs are anti-Israel, the Arabs France has been closest to historically have been the Maronites of Lebanon, who are not particularly anti-Israel, and at this point are strongly anti-Syrian. Additionally France seems to have reached out to other communities in Lebanon, which are also opposed to the Syrian presence. The advantages of cultivating the Lebanese far outweigh any advantage to France of undermining US policy by helping Syria, in this instance. Not all global politics is a two player zero sum game.

	18-02-2005 22:29									#86
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

I now have this image in my head of a bunch of arabs buried in the ground up to their knees with a French guy digging up the ground with a hoe and sprinkling them with water.

	18-02-2005 23:57									#87
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

The Lebanese opposition declared an "Independence Intifada" against Syria. A non violent, democratic popular resistance against Syrian control of Lebanon.

	19-02-2005 00:20									#88
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

I predict it will not stay non-violent. In fact, I foresee a Tian an Men type massacre.

	19-02-2005 00:52									#89
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Lebanese opposition declares intifada by Friday 18 February 2005 5:37 PM GMT (Aljazeera + Agencies) The Lebanese opposition has declared an "uprising for independence" and called for the pro-Syrian government to step down. "In response to the criminal and terrorist policy of the Lebanese and Syrian authorities, the Lebanese opposition declares the democratic and peaceful intifada [uprising] for independence," said leading opposition figure Samir Frangia. "We demand the departure of the illegitimate regime," Frangia said, reading a final statement at the home of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt after an opposition meeting in a Beirut hotel on Friday. Jumblatt did not attend the meeting, four days after the assassination of former premier Rafiq al-Hariri, for "security reasons," aides said. Attendance The meeting was attended by more than 40 of the parliament's 128 members, as well as dozens of political activists. The opposition called for "the formation of an interim government as a supreme national necessity to protect the Lebanese people and ensure the immediate and complete pullout of Syrian forces from Lebanon ahead of free and honest legislative elections." They also declared "the suspension of any political or legal debate in parliament before the truth is uncovered". "We call on parliament ... to hold a plenary session to discuss the series of assassinations which started with the attempt on Marwan Hamada, with the martyrdom of Rafiq al-Hariri and the targeting of former minister (Basil) Fleyhan" in the same blast that killed al-Hariri. Unsuccessful Hamada, an MP and deputy to Jumblatt, was unsuccessfully targeted in October. Jumblatt himself received a veiled death threat earlier this month from the Lebanese branch of Syria's ruling Baath party. Lebanon's anti-Syria opposition has accused the government and Damascus of having a hand in the massive bomb blast that killed former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri and 16 other people in Beirut on Monday. The assassination sent shockwaves through the nation. Aljazeera's correspondent in Beirut said the meeting of the opposition groups was the fourth of its kind. Sources close to the talks said the meetings are an attempt to hammer out a plan to escalate the toppling of the Lebanese government. Both the Lebanese and Syrian governments deny any involvement in the 14 February assassination.

quote: Lebanese Opposition Demands 'Independence Uprising' Fri Feb 18, 2005 01:44 PM ET By Alistair Lyon BEIRUT (Reuters) - Opposition figures urged the Lebanese to join an "independence uprising" against Syria's grip on their country Friday, escalating a war of words following former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri's assassination. Hariri's killing in Beirut Monday sparked anti-Syrian fury among many Lebanese and renewed world pressure on Damascus to loosen its political grip and remove its troops from Lebanon. Tourism Minister Farid al-Khazen resigned in a further sign of political turbulence and Syria named a new military intelligence chief. Khazen, a Maronite Christian, became the first minister to quit because of the assassination and said he had done so because the Syrian-backed government was unable to "remedy the dangerous situation in the country. "There is no substitute for national dialogue on the basis of the Taif agreement," he said, referring to the deal that ended the 1975-1990 civil war and committed Syria to moving the troops it keeps in Lebanon to the eastern Bekaa Valley. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and figures from the disparate opposition movement blamed the government and its Syrian backers for Hariri's death and called for its resignation. After meeting Friday, they urged Lebanese to back a peaceful "independence uprising" -- the first time they had used the term. Parliament must also suspend all debate unrelated to the assassination, they told a news conference, until the truth about who killed Hariri emerged. "This isn't just the opposition," Jumblatt earlier told reporters. "All the Lebanese are with Hariri, a free Lebanon and Syrian withdrawal." Hariri moved toward a similar position in the months before his death. It was not immediately clear what form of protest the uprising would take. Protesters set fire to the tents of Syrian farm workers near the northern town of Tripoli, the latest attack on Syrians in Lebanon. No injuries were reported. [...] Bush said Thursday Syria should comply with a U.N. resolution demanding its troops leave Lebanon and should allow parliamentary elections scheduled for May to be free and fair. He recalled the U.S. ambassador to Syria this week in reaction to the bombing, but has said Washington does not know who was behind the killing. Syria has denied involvement.

	19-02-2005 01:54									#90
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

FREE LEBANON