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Eli is offline Eli
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Jul 2000
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Exclamation  Old Post 14-02-2005 17:33
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Rafik al-Hariri, Former Lebanese PM, Assasinated in Beirut Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast...sion/index.html

quote:
Hariri, a billionaire businessman who resigned from government last October, recently joined calls by the opposition for Syria to quit Lebanon in the run-up to general elections in May, Reuters reported

...

Monday's explosion occurred before a backdrop of increasing political tension ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for May.

Lebanon's pro-Syrian government, which counts on its neighbor for security, has come under fire from the anti-Syrian opposition, which says Lebanon can take care of its own security.

Syria maintains about 16,000 troops in Lebanon, based mainly east of Beirut and in the Bekaa Valley, according to the CIA. The Arab League approved that troop deployment under the Ta'if Accord at the end of the 1975-90 civil war.

After Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, the opposition began to demand that Syria withdraw as well. The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution last October calling on Syria to withdraw.


A syrian job?

Last edited by Eli on 14-02-2005 at 17:39

Dr Zoidberg is offline Dr Zoidberg

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  Old Post 14-02-2005 20:44
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mi...ast/4263893.stm

Pretty gruesome pics there as well

It certainly looks like a syrian job. He was threatening syrian interests after all. But if this was a state assasination it was very clumsy. More like state terrorism...

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  Old Post 14-02-2005 20:45
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Please post in the other thread, which happens on the first page, Eli

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  Old Post 15-02-2005 06:40
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It appears that something odd happened.

Ming is offline Ming
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 17:47
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A little-known group calling itself Victory and Jihad in Greater Syria issued a statement claiming responsibility and saying the blast was caused by a suicide bomb, but the claim cannot be verified.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mi...ast/4266587.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mi...ast/4265329.stm

Jaakko is offline Jaakko
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The US immediately started rattling sabres with Syria, even though nobody knows who did it yet. Hell, it might even have been a mafia-style hit, seeing as how the guy was worth billions and involved in many shady deals.

Why the Bush admin feels that further tension is needed in this situation, I will never understand.

OneFootInTheGrave is offline OneFootInTheGrave
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 18:39
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaakko
The US immediately started rattling sabres with Syria, even though nobody knows who did it yet. Hell, it might even have been a mafia-style hit, seeing as how the guy was worth billions and involved in many shady deals.

Why the Bush admin feels that further tension is needed in this situation, I will never understand.


well they must be evaluating who is the weakest link, Iran or Syria... NK has nukes already so they are out of the picture...

This is just to keep the options open

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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the US did not rattle sabres, but merely said that this reiterates the need for Syria to withdraw. Such withdrawl would be in accord with a recent UNSC resolution, one supported by France as well as the US, and is desired by many different groups in Lebanon. The US did NOT say that Syria was at fault.

But between you and me, Syria probably was. Mafia? they can move around explosives in such quantity in Syrian occupied Lebanon? Besides, shortly after the bombing, a video appeared of a Palestinian claiming the attack on behalf of Al Qaeeda, which the Lebanese authorities quickly stated was who did it. If its NOT AQ, than its a pretty good bet that this is a deliberate coverup of Syrian involvement.

Last Conformist is offline Last Conformist
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:02
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What does Syria gain from de facto occupying Lebanon? It can't be exactly free to maintain an army there.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:07
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quote:
Originally posted by Last Conformist
What does Syria gain from de facto occupying Lebanon? It can't be exactly free to maintain an army there.


see Daniel Pipes, "Greater Syria, the History of an Ambition".

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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:12
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
the US did not rattle sabres, but merely said that this reiterates the need for Syria to withdraw. Such withdrawl would be in accord with a recent UNSC resolution, one supported by France as well as the US, and is desired by many different groups in Lebanon. The US did NOT say that Syria was at fault.

But between you and me, Syria probably was. Mafia? they can move around explosives in such quantity in Syrian occupied Lebanon? Besides, shortly after the bombing, a video appeared of a Palestinian claiming the attack on behalf of Al Qaeeda, which the Lebanese authorities quickly stated was who did it. If its NOT AQ, than its a pretty good bet that this is a deliberate coverup of Syrian involvement.


Taking advantage of an assassination to start pushing for a Syrian withdrawal isn't sabre rattling? I'd say it fits the category rather comfortably.
What the hell does that mean anyway? What kind of "pushing" are we talking about? The Syrians sure aren't going to give a **** about such vagueness if it doesn't imply a willingness to take punitive action.

In conclusion, even without that kind of speak, the risk of further violence and destabilisation is very high, so it would behoove the US to shut the **** up and not start empty posturing. The US isn't popular around that part of the world, remember?

BTW, why would it be impossible for criminal groups (with or without political/religious connections) to move explosives in Lebanon?
Mind, I'm not saying it was done by such interests, I'm just wondering where you get such precise knowledge.

Jaakko is offline Jaakko
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:14
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


see Daniel Pipes, "Greater Syria, the History of an Ambition".


Be advised that Pipes is a bit of a bigot.

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:16
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Jaakko, when was the last time a billionaire got whacked?

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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:18
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quote:
Originally posted by The Mad Monk
Jaakko, when was the last time a billionaire got whacked?



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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:25
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A simple hit team does not use enough explosives to make a 30 foot crater on the street.

At the same time, how did anyone get that much explosives into an armored limousine?

Last Conformist is offline Last Conformist
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:28
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


see Daniel Pipes, "Greater Syria, the History of an Ambition".

When I find the time.

In the meantime, would you kindly hint at the thesis?

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaakko





Exactly.

Jaakko is offline Jaakko
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:32
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
A simple hit team does not use enough explosives to make a 30 foot crater on the street.

At the same time, how did anyone get that much explosives into an armored limousine?


Terrorists, Islamic and otherwise, are involved in organised crime as well. What's to say he didn't screw over some A-Q related bigshot who decided to use one of his fools to blow it up? Again, note that this is just idle speculation, all I'm opposing is the notion that it can be dismissed off hand.

BTW, they're reporting now that it's a suicide bombing, which makes a Syrian involvement even less likely.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaakko


Taking advantage of an assassination to start pushing for a Syrian withdrawal isn't sabre rattling? I'd say it fits the category rather comfortably.
What the hell does that mean anyway? What kind of "pushing" are we talking about? The Syrians sure aren't going to give a **** about such vagueness if it doesn't imply a willingness to take punitive action.


LOTM - at this point its up to the UNSC to decide. Sanctions would seem one possibility. I fail to see how calling for withdrawl is saber rattling. Is every country that calls for US withdrawl from Iraq after a bombing there engaged in saber rattling?


In conclusion, even without that kind of speak, the risk of further violence and destabilisation is very high, so it would behoove the US to shut the **** up and not start empty posturing. The US isn't popular around that part of the world, remember?


LOTM - the Syrian presence seems to be the focus of the risk. And its Syria thats particularly unpopular in Lebanon.


BTW, why would it be impossible for criminal groups (with or without political/religious connections) to move explosives in Lebanon?
Mind, I'm not saying it was done by such interests, I'm just wondering where you get such precise knowledge.


Im not sure its IMPOSSIBLE - but I thought Syria maintained pretty tight control over Lebanon.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaakko


Be advised that Pipes is a bit of a bigot.


I dont agree with all his views, but his history of Syria is considered quite a serious work.

GePap is offline GePap
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaakko


Terrorists, Islamic and otherwise, are involved in organised crime as well. What's to say he didn't screw over some A-Q related bigshot who decided to use one of his fools to blow it up? Again, note that this is just idle speculation, all I'm opposing is the notion that it can be dismissed off hand.

BTW, they're reporting now that it's a suicide bombing, which makes a Syrian involvement even less likely.


Well, a suicide car coming up against the limousine makes some sense, at least given the scale of the damage.

My point was only that some organized crime family by itself most likely would not have the resources to get their hands on that much explosives- Governments certainly and international terrorist groups possibly.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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quote:
Originally posted by Last Conformist

When I find the time.

In the meantime, would you kindly hint at the thesis?


Ive only skimmed it, but heres my understanding.

for hundreds of years what is today Syria-lebanon-Israel/palestine-jordan were one cultural, and often political unit. In the politicing that followed the breakup of the Ottoman empire, the notion that this entity, called Greater Syria, should be one state was an important notion in Syrian politics. Different religious and ethnic groups took different views of it - Zionist Jews and Lebanese Maronite Christians opposed it, but Sunni muslims and Greek Orthodox supported it, (I dont remember what the views of Allawite, Shia, and Druze muslims were) This impacted the politics of the arab-israel situation, as well as of Lebanon, and of Syria, in the 1930s and 1940s. Even afterwards it effected the views of non-Maronite groups toward the Lebanese state, and of Syria toward the Lebanese state, and of Syria toward the Israeli and Palestinian issues.

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaakko


Terrorists, Islamic and otherwise, are involved in organised crime as well. What's to say he didn't screw over some A-Q related bigshot who decided to use one of his fools to blow it up? Again, note that this is just idle speculation, all I'm opposing is the notion that it can be dismissed off hand.

BTW, they're reporting now that it's a suicide bombing, which makes a Syrian involvement even less likely.


For the same reason nobody whacked Arafat, for all the problems he caused on all sides.

When someone controls that much money in that part of world (heck, in any part of the world), the problems caused by killing him outright make the idea very unpalatable unless you are extraordinarily powerful yourself.

In short, that man probably represented a significant portion of Lebanon's economy all by himself, and everybody benefitting from that are now very angry.

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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:40
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


LOTM - at this point its up to the UNSC to decide. Sanctions would seem one possibility. I fail to see how calling for withdrawl is saber rattling. Is every country that calls for US withdrawl from Iraq after a bombing there engaged in saber rattling?


LOTM - the Syrian presence seems to be the focus of the risk. And its Syria thats particularly unpopular in Lebanon.


Im not sure its IMPOSSIBLE - but I thought Syria maintained pretty tight control over Lebanon.


McClellan's words - "This murder today is a terrible reminder that the Lebanese people must be able to pursue their aspirations and determine their own political future free from violence and intimidation and free from Syrian occupation,".
The bottom line is, the US makes inflammatory remarks about the area at the moment of an extremely destabilising event. They're not stupid, they know what they're doing. It's sabre rattling all right.
As for Syrian unpopularity, exactly. The US comments did nothing but promoted conflict.

Finally, about Syrian control, surely you must know that the Syrian occupation is corrupt to the core. When their military officials can be regularly paid off with a bribe, it's utterly unrealistic to expect some kind of super-competence in preventing bombings. Even Israel can't do it.

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:41
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Mafia is money oriented. Killing billionaires is very bad for business.

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quote:
Originally posted by The Mad Monk
Mafia is money oriented. Killing billionaires is very bad for business.


Why does everybody skim over the Al-Qaida connections and religious/political influences on organised crime? They don't have Italian dons in the Middle East.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaakko


McClellan's words - "This murder today is a terrible reminder that the Lebanese people must be able to pursue their aspirations and determine their own political future free from violence and intimidation and free from Syrian occupation,".



Which is true. And far less inflammatory than what Syria regularly says about the situation in Israel, or in Iraq, IIRC.


It does seem, BTW, that Hairiri had criticized Hezbollah, the palestinians, and the muslim brotherhood as well, so the list with motive expands.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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its also is a remineder of that instance when there was a gunfight near some embassies in downtown Damascus, and the Syrians blamed AQ.

Jaakko is offline Jaakko
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  Old Post 15-02-2005 19:49
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark



Which is true. And far less inflammatory than what Syria regularly says about the situation in Israel, or in Iraq, IIRC.



So what? If you really think the relative merits of Syrian sabre rattling makes the Bush admin's comments any more reasonable, you're really not in a position to discuss any politics.
The people in Lebanon and Syria are NOT going to think "well, since the Syrian government has said some mean things, I don't think the Americans mean anything bad by that".

 
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