23-02-2005 04:10									#61
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Russia and the Europeans have a big problem in the arms market. Most people who can get advanced American weapons would rather buy those weapons then anything else since the US makes them in higher volume so the per unit price is lower then the competetion. That only leaves China, Iran, North Korea, and Cuba who can't buy American weapons because the US won't sell to them along with the fighter plane & naval markets in Latin America. The congress slapped advanced weapons export controls on atin America in the 1970's to weaken dictatorships and stop regional arms races so more money would be spent on social development.

The dictatorships in Latin America are gone and now the US arms makers are lobbying to have the export controls lifted. That means one of the biggest export markets for European arms is going to dry up (the US export controls didn't stop the dictators from buying weapons it just made them buy EU or Russian weapons instead of American) and they'd like to find a replacement before that happens. China is really the only option for them since the Russians already own North Korea, Iran, and India.

Sure, there are some small fries in Africa but those guys don't have the big bucks to spend on new air craft, ships, or missiles. If they want to keep their arms industries humming then they need China.

	23-02-2005 04:21									#62
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OMG!!! The Europeans might make a decision based on market economics! That's just wrong!!!!

As for the notion that the Chinese might do anything threatening to Europe- what a load of magnificent crap. What will China do? Roll accross all of Asia and invade? Mount some imaginary naval blockade? What? anyone???

The US has a power position in the Pacific that it wants to maintain, period. The only state that within the next 50 years might be a challenge is China, so right-wingers get in a huff at anything that might tip the balance towards China. The thing is, China will make advanced weapons at some point anyways, and European sales will not likely do much to tip any balance, since the real problem for China is lack of a blue water navy.

So what is the Chinese buy better European choppers? Unless the US is planning some new land war in Asia, those would hardly matter.

	23-02-2005 04:22									#63
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Oerdin, that's something I didn't think of.. makes sense to me.

	23-02-2005 04:29									#64
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I just reade the crap OP. and what single things stands out: why should the Europeans give a **** about US hegemony over the Pacific? Its not liek the US has been a worthwhile stewrd of democracy in the region at all until only the last few years, and as Dashi's article in the other thread shows, the US is already having its hegemony completely undermined and broken by the growing Chinese economy and our making it harder for others to travel to the US. China does not need weapons to break "US hegemony, its already doing so".

As for the notion that China has no external threats, so why should they buy weapons- what external threat does the US actually have that justifies a 400+ billion dollar military budget? NK? Iran? AQ? None of those threats comes anywhere near close to justifying that kind of military spending, or thinking up of new wepaons syetms, new nukes, whatever. China has every right, and perhaps even a duty, to ensure it has a top nothc military, just as we soend so much to ensure that. Why should the Chinese accept the US position? Cause we are so nice aqnd fluffy and lovable and only do whats best for everyone else?!

That is the underlying notion at the root of this moronic piece- that everyone out there in the world should accept the current system of US military domination just because we are the nices, best, most lovable people ever and everyone should see that, and anyone who does not must be bad! At least the Europeans when they controlled the world were not so deluded as to think that people should gladly submit to the world system they imposed even if they did think themselves better than everyone else.

	23-02-2005 04:33									#65
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The Japanese actually spend far more then the Chinese on defense and they've begun construction of a new nuclear powered aircraft carrier. The Japanese have been scared by North Korea's missile tests which flew over their islands and by the modernizing of China's military (which truthfully badly needed to be modernized since most of their ships and planes were 1960's vintage or even Korean war vintage).

The modernization of the PLA is going to continue reguardless and we're just going to have to accept a balance of power instead of total superiority. We can still rely on Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand as rock solid allies and if we work closer (something Bush isn't very good at) with Russia, India, and Indonesia (who is a traditional US ally, military client state, and old SEATO member) then we can hem the Chinese in. The goal is to let their military grow but to maintain such a strong defensive alliance that they don't feel bold enough to go on military adventures.

	23-02-2005 04:34									#66
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quote: Originally posted by GePap As for the notion that the Chinese might do anything threatening to Europe- what a load of magnificent crap. What will China do? Roll accross all of Asia and invade? Mount some imaginary naval blockade? What? anyone???

Well, there's alot of indirect harm they could do. Like wrecking Taiwan's electronics industry.

	23-02-2005 04:42									#67
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Well, there's alot of indirect harm they could do. Like wrecking Taiwan's electronics industry.

Which would hur them as well- more likely thought, Taiwans electronics indsutry will become China's electronic industry as Taiwanese manufacturers move factories to China to take advantage of the markets, as they are already doing.

	23-02-2005 04:42									#68
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Europe is going to sell arms to China... and this is a big deal because?

	23-02-2005 04:44									#69
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin The modernization of the PLA is going to continue reguardless and we're just going to have to accept a balance of power instead of total superiority. We can still rely on Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand as rock solid allies and if we work closer (something Bush isn't very good at) with Russia, India, and Indonesia (who is a traditional US ally, military client state, and old SEATO member) then we can hem the Chinese in. The goal is to let their military grow but to maintain such a strong defensive alliance that they don't feel bold enough to go on military adventures.

Oh, we can count on Japan and Taiwan, certainly, but I am not so sure about the others. China is already becoming the main trading partner of all these nations, and more and more they look to China, not the US, as Dashi's article shows. I think Vietnam and the Phillipinnes would both be more likely US allies on the China issue because of their competing territorial claims in the South China Sea.

	23-02-2005 04:46									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Europe is going to sell arms to China... and this is a big deal because?

The Chinese are evil god-hating commies who plan to swallow the freedom loving people of Taiwan and then nuke LA as their french made tanks roll unto Washington to enslave us all under a flag of Mao!!!

Didn't you hear?

	23-02-2005 04:49									#71
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China is becoming Russia's main trading partner? That doesn't sound quite right ...

	23-02-2005 04:51									#72
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quote: Originally posted by GePap The Chinese are evil god-hating commies who plan to swallow the freedom loving people of Taiwan and then nuke LA as their french made tanks roll unto Washington to enslave us all under a flag of Mao!!! Didn't you hear?

Oops... guess I missed the memo.

	23-02-2005 05:02									#73
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist China is becoming Russia's main trading partner? That doesn't sound quite right ...

N, they aren't the mina traidng partner of Russia or India, thoguth those two states are more likely not to just accept some US lead grand coolition.

	23-02-2005 05:05									#74
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Well, there's alot of indirect harm they could do. Like wrecking Taiwan's electronics industry.

China actually has a number of outstanding territorial disputes. Taiwan is the biggest but they still haven't agreed with Vietnam over the border, India and China have fought border wars over sections of Kashmire (1/4 is Chinese occupied), Burma/China have border disputes, Russia and China still haven't agreed to a final border in the Amur river area, and about a half dozen states all Claim the Spraitleys. So there are potential conflicts which could case wars.

Hopefully, we can make trade and cooperation seem like a better choice especially if we maintain strong defensive allainces without looking like we want to pick a fight.

	23-02-2005 05:08									#75
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I really should be concerned about all the ignorance in this thread, but **** it. A destablized East Asia does nothing but improve my job prospects, so bring it on! Woot!

quote: The Japanese actually spend far more then the Chinese on defense

That's not true any longer.

quote: China actually has a number of outstanding territorial disputes. Taiwan is the biggest but they still haven't agreed with Vietnam over the border, India and China have fought border wars over sections of Kashmire (1/4 is Chinese occupied), Burma/China have border disputes, Russia and China still haven't agreed to a final border in the Amur river area, and about a half dozen states all Claim the Spraitleys. So there are potential conflicts which could case wars.

There's also a dispute with Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands.

Here's a recent article on the dispute over the islands: Japan-China tensions rise over tiny islands

	23-02-2005 05:10									#76
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten I really should be concerned about all the ignorance in this thread

Its good to see you doing your part ot increase it vastly, thought

	23-02-2005 05:11									#77
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That was a poor comeback, GePap, even for you...

	23-02-2005 05:13									#78
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quote: Originally posted by GePap N, they aren't the mina traidng partner of Russia or India, thoguth those two states are more likely not to just accept some US lead grand coolition.

It would be interesting to see how Russia would react to the Chinese expanding their influence in central Asia. It's a logical thing for the Chinese to do since that region has a fair amount of oil and the Chinese have little oil. India has territorial disputes and they've fought two border wars since the 1950's plus I believe those two will be busy seeing who can be the big guy in Asia over the next century.

If China had some good diplomacy and if the US was lead by a George Bush type who excelled at pissing people off then a Chinese Bismark could pretty easily prevent the creation of a anti-Chinese defense alliance. One hopes the US, Japan, Korea, and all would be a bit more on the ball then that though.

The likely next big trouble spots with China will be either Taiwan or the collapse of North Korea. The Chinese would likely intervine in North Korea to prevent the South Koreans (and by extension the US) getting closer to their border.

	23-02-2005 05:14									#79
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin China actually has a number of outstanding territorial disputes. Taiwan is the biggest but they still haven't agreed with Vietnam over the border, India and China have fought border wars over sections of Kashmire (1/4 is Chinese occupied), Burma/China have border disputes, Russia and China still haven't agreed to a final border in the Amur river area, and about a half dozen states all Claim the Spraitleys. So there are potential conflicts which could case wars.

Well, Burma has strong relations with China. India and China are trying to work out their differences, thoguht the prospects of some grand US-INdia allience seem dim as long as we back India's biggest enemy, much like China.

The Russians are centainly afraid of China, but that does not stop them selling weapons to China. Russia can always play the nuclear car to stop any actual aggression northward.

The south China sea issue was already mentioned- but as China grows, its not like any resources found there won;t end up in Chinese hands anyways.

	23-02-2005 05:24									#80
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Drake: It appears you are right. In purchasing power parity figures China spent $65B, Russia $50B, France $46.5B, Japan $44.7B, Germany $38.8B, UK $31.7B, Italy $20.2B, Saudi Arabia $18.3B, South Korea $16.8B.

The US spent a total of $466B in 2004 with total world wide military spending being at $950B. That means 49% of all military spending in the world is by the US. We are not getting value for our money.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milit...ld/spending.htm

Last edited by Oerdin on 23-02-2005 at 05:31

	23-02-2005 07:41									#81
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Everyone keeps forgetting about Tibet.

Freedom of the seas is one thing that our military does Gepap. Is protecting Ten Trillion dollars in trade annually from pirates worth what we spend on it?

What about having in excess of 1 million gallons of water generation less then a day away from any disaster zone?

How about the fact that we recognize that war is a distinct possibility and prepare for it, how much is that worth? How much would it have been worth to us right before both WW1 and WW2?

	23-02-2005 08:08									#82
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quote: Everyone keeps forgetting about Tibet.

I don't.

You have a weak country smack between two enemies. Do the math.

	23-02-2005 08:46									#83
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Preparing for logical and reasonablely likely wars is one thing. Spending more then every other country COMBINED in the world is just wasteful.

(OK, we are only at 49% of total military spending but Bush wants to slather on still more corporate welfare this year.)

	23-02-2005 09:30									#84
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We don't spend more then other countries a percentage of GDP, or that number also applies to our social spending, foreign aid(from non-govt and govt),etc.

	23-02-2005 09:34									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha Everyone keeps forgetting about Tibet.

What about Tibet? The fact that in 1949 China took it and every single other state recognizes those territories as Chinese?

quote: Freedom of the seas is one thing that our military does Gepap. Is protecting Ten Trillion dollars in trade annually from pirates worth what we spend on it?

So? Anyone with a good blue water navy will protect trade- if China has a huge blue water navy IT would protect international trade.

quote: What about having in excess of 1 million gallons of water generation less then a day away from any disaster zone?

Again, so what? This is a factor of us being the only ones spending the money to have said capability- what does this have to do with say someone else having this capability? Would not the world be better if more than one state coulod provide this?

quote: How about the fact that we recognize that war is a distinct possibility and prepare for it, how much is that worth? How much would it have been worth to us right before both WW1 and WW2?

So? Given how much more China suffered during WW2, maybe currently they are getting prepared.

I don;t even get the point of your post- the OP blather about how terrible it is that China is modernizing their military, and opines that this is unnecessary and thus shows inherent aggressive and beligerrant tendecies. Well, everything you have posted would be a banner reason for China to modernize it military- to protect is growing trade, to have the ability to project power and give it extra diplomatic options, and to protect its territorial integrity.

	23-02-2005 09:35									#86
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha We don't spend more then other countries a percentage of GDP, or that number also applies to our social spending, foreign aid(from non-govt and govt),etc.

Well, we spend more of our GDP on the military than any other G8 member, by close to 1% point.

	23-02-2005 09:50									#87
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha We don't spend more then other countries a percentage of GDP, or that number also applies to our social spending, foreign aid(from non-govt and govt),etc.

Actually we do spend more as a percentage of GDP then most European countries or Japan. Not that really matters because I'm speaking about of all the money which every country in the world spends upon their militaries we have 49% of that total.

I think most people will agree that is excessive and unnecissary. By dropping a few obvious corporate welfare projects (the $200 billion star wars program, the crappy styker which doesn't even fill the role it is designed to fill, the XM-8 rifle which is heavier & more expensive & less accurate then the M-16 it replaces, one of the three fighter planes, one of the three tracked APCs, and various other things) we could easily bring that 49% figure down to around 33% without sacrificing quality. Instead we simply get ride of diplicate designs and buy each remaining design in higher quantity thus lowering costs.

This is just common sense especialy since Bush has created a $420 billion deficit monster which we must deal with.

	23-02-2005 10:05									#88
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Is it totally inconceivable that the Chinese might actually be friendly people?

Oerdin. Will you answer my questions above? Do you think that China is heading in the right direction overall or not?

	23-02-2005 10:07									#89
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quote: Originally posted by GePap blah blah blah totally irrelvant to what was posted.

I never said China in my post. You asked why the US would want such things, and obviously those arguments apply to China as well. China has every right to buy the arms, But we in the US need to realize that Europe is increasing not our ally or our friend. You said they don't give a **** about our position in the Pacific? so then why, for example, should we give a **** about their position in the Ivory Coast?

quote: Originally posted by Oerdin This is just common sense especialy since Bush has created a $420 billion deficit monster which we must deal with.

the deficit number is actually much higher due to the SS money that will have to be paid back out. even cutting the military budget to zero doesn't cover the problem. It will merely delay the day of reckoning. I agree that cuts can be made, but I consider such cuts trying to squeeze blood from a stone. Another thing to consider, how do you know ahead of time which programs will be flops and which will be worth while?

	23-02-2005 10:21									#90
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There are certain more freedoms in China then 15 years ago but it remains a one party state where the porty keeps total control of all things political. Will economic reforms continue and state industries continue to be privatized? Yep, basic economics says they'll have to to keep up the growth they need to replace the shuttering state industries they're losing and provide jobs for the peasants who are flooding into the cities. Remember it is still illegal for those peasants to move to the cities but they're doing it anyway so they're freer but not legally protected in this freedom.

Either way we are the reason for China's growth (or rather access to western markets, allowing our companies to invest there, and our greed for cheap goods are the reasons) even if we don't want to admite it. There is nothing majorly concrete about China's liberal reforms but their desire to continue to expand trade is a powerful lever we can use to avoid conflict.