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DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:24
Post  Old Post 22-04-2005 06:56 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Is GM going bankrupt? Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

You heard it first here. It looks to me like it is.

The company's $300 billion in debt is about to be cut to junk status by the ratings agencies, dramatically raising its cost of money. The market seems to be pricing in something like a bankruptcy, since the market capitalization for the entire company is only $15 billion.

But more importantly, GM's lineup of cars are shitty. I rented a Chevy Malibu over Christmas and it felt like I was getting into a brand new $20,000 piece of trash. Maybe these are very reliable pieces of trash, but there you are.

Does anybody have any countervailing evidence?

When the **** hits the fan, this one's going to be really ugly in the business and political worlds.

Last edited by DanS on 22-04-2005 at 07:06

Lancer is offline Lancer
Emperor
Oregon Coast, USA! or Bohol, Philippines!
Apr 1999
time: 05:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:01
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Tired of ads?

I can support your position, I finally broke down and bought a foreign car a year ago.

I now drive a Toyota. Ford screwed me over but good and Dolores thought the RAV4 was 'cute'...the rest is history. My last GM car was a Chevy Celebrity. That was the end of that.

Verto is offline Verto

King

Mar 2002
time: 23:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:04
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Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

You bought a RAV4?

...

My condolensces.

VetLegion is offline VetLegion
Prince

Sep 1999
time: 06:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:07
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Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Market capitalization is value of stock, right? Are total assets of the company larger? I assume they are. How is $300 billio of debt compared with that?

Lancer is offline Lancer
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Oregon Coast, USA! or Bohol, Philippines!
Apr 1999
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:09
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"You bought a RAV4?

...

My condolensces."

I kinda like it, for around town which is 99.99% of our driving.

Besides, it's cute.

Japher is offline Japher
Prince
Ook! Ook! Ack! Ack! Ack!
Jun 2002
time: 05:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:10
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Inflate your Upload Space

I hope not, but I have been noticing the same decline DanS. I was going to buy them a year or so ago but was concerned then.... bought CAG instead.

I think they'll make it though.

Verto is offline Verto

King

Mar 2002
time: 23:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:10
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Increase the size of your Attachments

If by cute you mean totally fugly, then I would agree.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:11 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Yes, the market capitalization of $15 billion is the value of the stock.

Assets of the company are $480 billion and liabilities are $450 billion.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/qu...report=2&freq=1

Lancer is offline Lancer
Emperor
Oregon Coast, USA! or Bohol, Philippines!
Apr 1999
time: 05:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:18
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"If by cute you mean totally fugly, then I would agree."



That's what I meant. I also meant that the wife is happy, so I'm happy. Happily toeing the party line, yea.

pchang is offline pchang
King
Cupertino?
Aug 1999
time: 05:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:28
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480 - 450 != 15
Makes you wonder about the 480 bit.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:32 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Inflate your Upload Space

$480 - $450 = $30

Shareholder's equity is the $30 billion difference. The $15 billion is the market cap.

The stock is selling at 1/2 book value.

pchang is offline pchang
King
Cupertino?
Aug 1999
time: 05:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:34
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I know that is the conventional wisdom, but institutional guys aren't stupid. The discount is there for a reason.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:35 Visit DanS's homepage!
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You're right. And that reason probably is that a bankruptcy is priced in.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
of Internet Music.
Sep 2001
time: 21:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:49
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The main reason GM's debt got down graded was the unexpected $2 billion it had to pay to FIAT and the highest in industry incentives it has to give to sell its cars. I'm afriad its corporate culture prevents worthless executives from being forced out so even though Wagner has been a bean pusher more then a hard nosed exec he still sits on the top spot with no fear of being forced out.

Combining with the lack of accountability and massive red tape is the fact that for decades GM has been run by accountants. They're good at balancing accounts and squeezing the last penny out of suppliers but they don't know jack about the business of making a good car. That's why GM tends to have the worst interiors and why its engines are usually using older technology instead of the latest. The accountants have decided it is better to spend $2000 less in specifications in a car which will then need $2000 of incentives to sell then to just spend the $2000 up front to build a car which doesn't need incentives. The editor of Car and Driver Magazine, who worked for GM for 25 years said that GM's management is so diluted that even if designers and enginers came up with the theortically perfect car it would never get built because so many people who know so little about cars or the industry have the power to demand changes be made.

Last edited by Oerdin on 22-04-2005 at 07:57

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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Macedonia
May 2001
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:50 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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Re: Is GM going bankrupt? Get a bigger avatar today!

quote:
Originally posted by DanS
You heard it first here. It looks to me like it is.

The company's $300 billion in debt


Holy ****.

The national debt of Canada is only around 500 billion

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:52 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Put an end to popups!

Yeh, well, we do everything big on this side of the border.

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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Macedonia
May 2001
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:54 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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Got spare money?

As if. I bet that GM's US manufacturing ops are at most 2 times its Canadian manufacturing ops.

A lot of our trade surplus with you is automotive.

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:56 Visit DanS's homepage!
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The bean counters who add up all these big numbers are on this side of the border, though.

In any event, this would hit Canada really hard too, if it came to pass. Maybe it would hit Canada harder than it would the US.

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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Macedonia
May 2001
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:57 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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Inflate your Upload Space

Yes, it would.

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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May 2001
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:57 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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Increase Your PM Length

I guess that other manufacturers would pick up the slack though.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
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Sep 2001
time: 21:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:59
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GM's also been on a buying binge over the last 20 years. Not only do they keep buying but they then ignore their existing brands, starve them for product, then watch them die like Oldsmobile. The would have been better off not buying even more brands and instead just built up existing brands like Toyota and Honda do.

Richelieu is offline Richelieu
Warlord
Gatineau
Dec 2001
time: 00:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 07:59
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And they just refuse to learn don't they? They'll keep on building ****ty cars until the bitter end... what a waste.

pchang is offline pchang
King
Cupertino?
Aug 1999
time: 05:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 08:00
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Probably not. There is a fair amount of overcapacity in the car manufacturing business right now.

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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Macedonia
May 2001
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  Old Post 22-04-2005 08:01 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Well, it will stop rotating layoffs at the other companies then.

Geronimo is offline Geronimo
King
st cloud USA
Jan 1970
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Question  Old Post 22-04-2005 08:05
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Has Saturn been their only successful brand lately?

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
of Internet Music.
Sep 2001
time: 21:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 08:07
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Even GM's "Product Csar" hasn't been able to change things because every change he makes gets second guessed by a dozen different people behind the scenes. The best thing GM could do is fire half of it management staff and hire new people on a 2 fired-1 new hire basis. Copy in every detail small team design method which Toyota, Honda, and DC use. Those three have a 20-30 man team which is responsible for every design desision in the car from start to finish where has GM shuffles designs between department to department where each department gets to make changes (thus sending it back to the previous department for redesign). This adds alot of wasted effort and slows down the design to production time considerably.

DC can get a new car from concept to dealer lot in 18 months and there goal is 15 months for the next product cycle. GM is pushing 24 months. That extra half year costs them big.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
of Internet Music.
Sep 2001
time: 21:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 08:14
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Get a bigger avatar today!

quote:
Originally posted by Geronimo
Has Saturn been their only successful brand lately?


Caddy, Hummer, GMC, and Chevy have all ben profitable. Mostly on the truck business. Buick breaks even while Saab, Holden, Deawoo, Opel/Vauxhall, and Pontiac have been losing money. Deawoo they plan to make money buy rebadging the line up as Chevrolets and selling them in Europe, China, and Latin America. They're more or less merging Saab into Opel/Vauxhall but there European opporations are still plagued with over capacity (just like everyone elses Euro ops) so it won't be profitable soon. Pontiac is going to stay a loser too since it can't sell trucks and GM's car line up blows; the new G6 is a loser (better then the car it replaces but specifications and the feel of the car is just to low to compete in the market) and a nitch market 2 door roadster will not save it.

GM's pretty much shot its load for the next four years on new models and other then the newer Caddies and the trucks nothing has been a market success. Caddy is building some nice cars now days but still a step behind Lexus.

mrmitchell is offline mrmitchell
King

Donate to the Red Cross

Sep 2002
time: 23:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 09:10
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Where are the major American companies that don't have a reputation for evilness or billions in debt?

Riesstiu IV is offline Riesstiu IV
Settler

Nov 2003
time: 05:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 09:12
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What about Little Debbie? That company isn't evil nor is it in debt.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:24
  Old Post 22-04-2005 09:12 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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Got spare money?

quote:
Originally posted by Verto
You bought a RAV4?


Probability of an Asian chick liking the RAV4 = 92%

 
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