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cinch is offline cinch
Chieftain
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Jul 2002
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 03:55
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"I have always said: 'A successful NDP, you call that a Liberal.'"

-Gilles Duceppe

ZING!

Uncle Sparky is offline Uncle Sparky
King
Winnipeg
Jan 1970
time: 23:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 03:58
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I've voted in every election all levels. While living in Alberta, I did rejected (handed back unmarked) the senatorial slate ballots as they were meaningless.

cinch is offline cinch
Chieftain
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Jul 2002
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 04:00
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quote:
Originally posted by Uncle Sparky
I've voted in every election all levels. While living in Alberta, I did rejected (handed back unmarked) the senatorial slate ballots as they were meaningless.


I spoiled mine.

embalmer42 is offline embalmer42
Warlord
The Great State Of Insanity
Jan 2000
time: 05:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 04:55
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quote:
Originally posted by cinch
"I have always said: 'A successful NDP, you call that a Liberal.'"

-Gilles Duceppe

ZING!

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 05:37
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quote:
Originally posted by St Leo
quote:
Originally posted by notyoueither
What makes you think those 6 days will ever happen?


Because postponing those 6 days would be obviously illegal? (As opposed to hearsay illegal stuff from ten years ago.)


Really? Would you care to direct us to the law that says Martin will be breaking the law if he asks the GG to prorogue before those 6 days happen?

quote:
The Governor General will dismiss the government if Martin crosses over from opportunistic to cheating.


Tell us, how would the GG decide that Martin had moved into 'cheating'? What would guide her?

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 05:45
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quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I agree that the opportunity to have votes of no-confidence is important. Just pointing out that the fact that the Liberals might be able to delay one for a month does not destroy the fabric of Canadian democracy.


If Martin had any respect for our institutions and customs, he has three choices now.

Resign, ask the GG to dissolve Parliament and send us to the polls, or introduce a motion of confidence which should be brought to a vote promptly so that the issue can be brought to a head in a very timely manner.

We now have over half of the House of Commons who bothered to show up to vote saying that the government is illegitimate. You cannot just ignore them and continue on as if nothing had happened. Well, you could, but the results could be disastrous.

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
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McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 06:06
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I like Mr. Valeri's quote. If they are not afraid to face a confidence motion, why have they rescheduled the 'opposition days' to the end of May?

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 06:11
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Very good question.

Is it because Mr. Martin wants as many days as possible with his hand on the money dispensing machine so as to lube the voters of Ontario and select other jurisdictions to a level suitable for the conduct of a campaign?

Incidently, how many of those... it must be hundreds of spending initiatives by now... have been in Alberta or Quebec?

5 billion for Ontario? The Newfies must know that they had very bad timing.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 06:14
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quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse
If a lot of Canadian voters feel like there's no viable alternative to the Liberals then that's due to a failure of political leadership, not the fact that they're a bunch of slavering morons.


If I am to be deemed a redneck, I insist on reserving the right to consider the voters of urban Ontario to be slavering morons.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 06:21
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A fairly clever fellow whose words I have had occassion to read had this to say about another subject, but which I feel to be apropos to Canada's federal political scene.

quote:
The point is that it's very easy to frighten people. Not so easy to make them see sense.

embalmer42 is offline embalmer42
Warlord
The Great State Of Insanity
Jan 2000
time: 05:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 06:40
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quote:
Originally posted by notyoueither
A fairly clever fellow whose words I have had occassion to read had this to say about another subject, but which I feel to be apropos to Canada's federal political scene.

quote:
The point is that it's very easy to frighten people. Not so easy to make them see sense.


I guess we've proven that statement ten times over.....

Oncle Boris is offline Oncle Boris
Prince
Once in a brown moon
Aug 2001
time: 00:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 06:59
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It's funny to see that a libertarian thinks the average voter is idiotic.

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
Emperor
Pittsburgh, PA
Apr 1999
time: 00:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 07:19
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It seems that the Liberal party has chosen to continue in government in spite of the clear opposition of Parliament. Aren't the liberals running into some danger of annoying the electorate that way?

Agathon is offline Agathon
Prince
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 07:25
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quote:
It seems that the Liberal party has chosen to continue in government in spite of the clear opposition of Parliament. Aren't the liberals running into some danger of annoying the electorate that way?


Apparently not. This is a self contained game. Most Canadians don't particularly want the hassle of an election because of something that happened ten years ago and which hasn't yet been proved. Current polls point to the Tories being punished if they force an election.

What should really happen is that everyone should wait until the enquiry is finished. The Liberals have proposed that, and it seems like common sense.

I hope there is an election and Harper loses to be replaced by Belinda Stronach - she has a nice bottom.

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
Emperor
Pittsburgh, PA
Apr 1999
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  Old Post 11-05-2005 07:46
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Even it is true that Canadians agree with the Liberals that Parliament should not vote to force the government to resign, couldn't there still be anger at the means the Liberals are using to avoid an election, that is to stay in power in spite of Parlimanet clearly expressing that it doesn't what that to happen.

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
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Apr 1999
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  Old Post 11-05-2005 07:49
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According to the BBC, anger is further rising in Canada over the scandal.

quote:

Scandal anger mounts in Canada
By Lee Carter
BBC News, Toronto

Martin says he knew nothing about the missing millions
As sensational revelations continue to pour out of a Canadian government corruption scandal inquiry, public anger is mounting across the country against the governing Liberals.

The larger question will be whether that anger will translate into calls for a new election less than a year after Canadians last went to the polls.

On Thursday explosive testimony from the previous week, by an advertising executive, was released for the first time, when the judge presiding over the public inquiry lifted a publication ban.

The inquiry is investigating how millions of dollars were paid by the Liberal government in the late 1990s to advertising firms in the province of Quebec, after Canada's auditor-general concluded that little or no work was performed and the money was largely unaccounted for.

'All the way to the top'

Under the leadership of the former Liberal Prime Minister, Jean Chretien, the so-called sponsorship programme was supposed to promote national unity in the primarily French-speaking province.


You've got to wonder whether journalists' imagination were going a little crazy
Kady O'Malley
Journalist, The Hill Times
According to the allegations released on Thursday, Jean Brault, the owner of the Groupaction advertising agency at the centre of the scandal, claimed that illegal campaign contributions worth millions of dollars were also channelled back to the Liberal party through an intricate system of false invoices and cash payments.

And at the end of the week, a Groupaction employee alleged that some orders to the advertising agencies came directly from the Canadian prime minister's office.

Mr Chretien, who has already appeared before the enquiry, denies any wrongdoing.

His successor, Paul Martin, told the inquiry that although he was the country's finance minister at the time, he knew almost nothing about the programme and the missing millions.

Tantalising ban

Mr Martin came to office vowing to get to the bottom of the scandal.

But with each new revelation, public anger with the government seems to grow.

Chretien also denies any wrongdoing
The opposition parties will be trying to gauge just how disaffected Canadians are with the Liberal's teetering minority government in the days ahead

The story was made all the more tantalising by the surreal sight of a media champing at the bit, but being unable to report any details for several days, because of Justice Gomery's publication ban, imposed because he felt it could prejudice a future criminal trial.

Instead Canadians heard such phrases as "explosive revelations considered so damaging they could topple the government" blaring out from their nightly TV news, without any details.

No smoking gun

Kady O'Malley, a journalist for the Ottawa parliamentary newspaper The Hill Times, says the media may have got carried away and become a victim of its own hype.


People want to hear real solutions to real problems
Benoit Dutrizac
Television presenter
"You've got to wonder whether journalists' imagination were going a little crazy as they imagined colour photos of Paul Martin handing over big bags with dollar signs on them to Groupaction," she said.

"While there's definitely a lot of meat there and new things we didn't know before, the testimony generally supports what we've heard already."

Ms O'Malley also believes the opposition parties did not get the one piece of evidence they were looking for.

"If they thought there was a smoking gun linking the current prime minister, they were probably disappointed." she said.

'Soap opera'

The part of Canada where the scandal has been the number one issue for political debate is French-speaking Quebec, because that is where all the alleged corruption took place.

As most of the testimony has been in French it has been virtually treated as a ghoulish nightly TV soap opera by many in the province.

After all, the sponsorship programme was introduced to quell the separatist sentiment that led to a 1995 Quebec referendum that came within a hair's breadth of choosing secession from the rest of the country.

Benoit Dutrizac is a TV presenter for the French-language station Tele-Quebec.

He said people in the province are disgusted by what they are hearing from the public inquiry.

"To see all this quarrelling and money being wasted, I think they're really fed up with all this cheating and lying."

Separatism 'waning'

Mr Dutrizac said people in the province are also upset about how they might now be perceived by the rest of Canada.

"Canadians from other provinces probably see Quebeckers as opportunists, liars and thieves. That hurts me. I'm sure that Quebeckers see these French-speaking witnesses at the enquiry every day and feel embarrassed."

The Canadian media has even been debating whether the scandal will lead to renewed anti-federalist sentiment in the province.

But Mr Dutrizac says that separatist sentiment is declining, despite the scandal.

"The last time I checked about 40% of Quebeckers wanted a new deal with Canada," he said

"But frankly, nobody cares about that any more really. I think people want to hear real solutions to real problems."

Meanwhile the slightly more unreal world of Justice Gomery's public enquiry continues.

He is expected to make his final report in November.

It may however look like a crumpled footnote, if Canadians end up going to the polls between now and then.

JimmyCracksCorn is offline JimmyCracksCorn
Settler
Macedonia - Sovereign country north of Greece.
Dec 2002
time: 05:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 08:14
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quote:
Apparently not. This is a self contained game. Most Canadians don't particularly want the hassle of an election because of something that happened ten years ago and which hasn't yet been proved. Current polls point to the Tories being punished if they force an election.


Might be the case, but I suspect this has alot to do with Canadians not being in election mode yet. I think once proper campaigning starts people will get right into again like last summer.

And, as I've said before, I love elections.

Hell yeah, bring it on.

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
King
Macedonia
May 2001
time: 00:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 08:37 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
According to the BBC, anger is further rising in Canada over the scandal.



I think anger peaked about 2 weeks ago. At least according to the poll numbers. The BBC is a day late and a dollar short.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 08:49
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Got spare money?

Well, the only poll that really matters is that held where ballots are counted, but if you want to talk polls...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...?hub=TopStories
quote:
Tories gain lead nationally over Liberals: poll
CTV.ca News Staff

While a federal election call looms closer and closer by the day, a new poll shows Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have surged ahead of Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals nationally.

A CTV News and Globe and Mail poll, conducted by The Strategic Counsel, finds that the Conservatives would win 31 per cent of the vote if an election were to be held today.

The Liberals, meanwhile, have slid three points in popularity to 27 per cent.

The NDP has gained some ground, at 20 per cent, while the Bloc Quebecois has stayed the same at 14. The Green Party lost a few points and settles at seven per cent.

There's more bad news for the Liberals in the key battleground of Ontario. The Conservatives have gained a narrow lead in front of the Liberals, with a surge in support to 35 per cent.

The Liberals have dropped to 34 per cent, while the NDP has 25 and the Green party seven.

In Quebec, the separatist Bloc now enjoys a massive 40 point lead over the Liberals.

The leaders

The news gets worse for the Liberals when it comes to the party leaders' personal ratings.

The sponsorship scandal seems to have eaten away at Martin's once-vaunted credibility, according to the poll's findings.

When asked to name which of the party leaders was the most dishonest:

63 per cent of Canadians named Martin as being the least honest;
20 per cent chose Harper;
5 per cent of respondents said NDP Leader Jack Layton; and
3 per cent named Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe.
The picture gets even darker for Martin: 61 per cent of Canadians say they believe Martin would lie if it would help him politically; 54 per cent call him hypocritical; while 47 percent say he's indecisive.

"Paul Martin is looking like a caricature of a stereotypical politician -- a person who is prepared to lie, a person who is prepared to bribe people with their own money," pollster Allan Gregg told CTV News.

Harper, meanwhile, has gained crucial momentum going into an election, with poll results indicating that Canadians are beginning to warm up to him and his vision.

However, he's yet to shake off the cool, remote image that many believe has been holding down Conservative support across the country.

When Canadians were asked which party leader they would most like to have dinner with, both Martin (23 per cent) and Layton (25 per cent) edged out Harper, who took 19 per cent of the vote. Duceppe trailed far behind at 10 per cent nationally, but won 35 per cent in Quebec.

Popular Layton

Despite his party's perennial third or fourth place finishes, Canadians continue to see Jack Layton in a positive light.

The NDP leader scores strongly in areas of principle, honesty, charisma, and possessing values that are closest to Canadians.

Ottawa-based image consultant Bernie Gauthier says voters see Layton as less partisan and petty than the other leaders.

"He has done a terrific job, especially in the last week or so of taking the high road. It's the road less travelled now," Gauthier told CTV News.

Martin's track record

The Liberals acknowledge their own polling shows that their leader has been tainted by the sponsorship scandal. But Steve, McKinnon, the party's national director, says the Liberals still view Martin as being their strongest asset.

"When Canadians must judge between Paul Martin, Stephen Harper, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe . . . they will choose Paul Martin because of his track record," McKinnon told CTV News.

But Martin's eroding credibility explains why the Liberals have been desperately trying to delay an election, reports CTV Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife.

"Martin needs time to re-connect with voters, and the Liberal party needs to recover from the Gomery revelations," he said.


Polling details: This poll was conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel. Telephone interviewing was conducted between May 2nd and May 8th, 2005. The weighted nation-wide sample is based on 1,000 which yields a margin of error of 3.1 per cent 19 times in 20. (Note: Proportions may not sum to 100 per cent due to rounding.)

With a report from CTV Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife


The bolded bits would indicate why Martin is so desperate to avoid the people in the confidence vote that really counts.

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
Emperor
Pittsburgh, PA
Apr 1999
time: 00:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 08:59
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How do the current constituencies drawn up in Canada favor the parties? About how much would the Tories need to be ahead of the government in order to form a majority?

It's also interesting to note that if you sum the vote totals of all the non-seperatist leftist parties(Lib+NDP+Green), it adds up to 54% as compared to only 31% for the rightist party.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 09:05
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The problem with your scenario, Shi, and the Tories for that matter, is that the Liberals cannot be described as leftist. When the Tories were immolated after Mulroney, the Liberals took the opportunity to poach much of their position in a successful effort to keep their foot firmly on the Tory neck.

Balanced budgets, democratic defecits, etc., etc.. Some of Chretein's early years were better than having Tories around. He did nothing. It was great!

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
King
Macedonia
May 2001
time: 00:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 09:11 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
How do the current constituencies drawn up in Canada favor the parties? About how much would the Tories need to be ahead of the government in order to form a majority


42-45% or so for the Tories to form a majority government.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 09:12
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quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
How do the current constituencies drawn up in Canada favor the parties? About how much would the Tories need to be ahead of the government in order to form a majority?


re this bit...

Forget majorities for anyone while the Bloc has a stranglehold on Quebec. Stable governments in Canada have never been made without Quebec.

The governments of the day will be decided by how many seats go Liberal or Tory in Ontario.

Things that could shift to give either the Tories or Liberals an edge (needing less in Ontario) would be a Liberal breakthrough in Western Canada, or a Conservative breakthrough in the Maritimes. After Gomry, the former would be ten years away (at a guess). Since the Tories seem to be nearing an end to their sentence in purgatory I would say the later is more likely sooner.

Either way, we are going to have more than 2 elections every 8 years until the situation in Quebec sorts itself out.

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
Emperor
McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 09:29
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KH:

They don't need 40 percent, depending on the split, they could almost be in majority territory now.

40 would be a landslide.

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
Emperor
McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 09:39
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Here's a quick and dirty projection with the Conservatives at 41%

178 Con
37 LIB
57 BQ
29 NDP

Bosh is offline Bosh
Emperor
Taehan Mingook
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 09:43
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quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Here's a quick and dirty projection with the Conservatives at 41%

178 Con
37 LIB
57 BQ
29 NDP


The Libs getting less seats than the Bloc No offence BK, but you are astonishingly bad at electoral projections.

joncha is offline joncha
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North of FOPOG
Jan 2003
time: 21:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 09:44
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Is that using the same site you tried to pawn off on us before? Unless they get some really lucky breaks on which ridings they get the votes in, I seriously doubt 40% would give them that.

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
Emperor
McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:19
  Old Post 11-05-2005 09:44
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and at 37%

154 CON
68 LIB
53 BQ
26 NDP

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
King
Macedonia
May 2001
time: 00:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
KH:

They don't need 40 percent, depending on the split, they could almost be in majority territory now.

40 would be a landslide.


You don't know what you're talking about, Ben.

You literally have no ****ing clue. I don't know why I even bother to respond to your bullshit any more, as you've shown time and time again that you're either incompetent when it comes to predicting elections, or just intellectually dishonest.

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
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Oct 2002
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The problem was not in the projection, but in the collapse in CON support in the last days of the last election.

 
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