11-05-2005 09:46									#91
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Ben, you have once more been self-pwned.

	11-05-2005 09:48									#92
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The projections are based on the polls.

If the polls are off, then the so will the projections.

	11-05-2005 09:52									#93
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The "projections" are full of ****. According to that, the conservatives would basically sweep ontario if they had 41% support.

	11-05-2005 09:55									#94
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18 LIB
10 NDP
75 CON

What kills the Liberals and the NDP is the Liberal/NDP split.

Last edited by Ben Kenobi on 11-05-2005 at 10:04

	11-05-2005 09:59									#95
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With 41% nationally, the Tories would crush the Liberals.

	11-05-2005 09:59									#96
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The unlikely thing would be getting 41%.

	11-05-2005 10:01									#97
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi 18 LIB 10 NDP 75 Con What kills the Liberals and the NDP is the LIberal/NDP split

You think that that's going to be the Ontario result?
Please please please can we have an avatar bet?

	11-05-2005 10:09									#98
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Actually, the Liberals got 177 with 41.3% in '93 when the Tories melted down.

It has happened before, so don't be too quick to laugh.

	11-05-2005 10:11									#99
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither With 41% nationally, the Tories would crush the Liberals.

With 41% I think they would probably have a bare majority.

	11-05-2005 10:11									#100
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The liberals would, of course, be crushed.

	11-05-2005 10:12									#101
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If that 41% figure was a result of 10% swing from LIB to CON(from the current poll NYE posted) that would leave the Liberals with only 17%, which in a FPTP system would seem likely to the Conservatives crushing the Liberals.

	11-05-2005 10:13									#102
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse The liberals would, of course, be crushed.

That's more ridiculous than what BK is saying. 40% is clear majority country.

Damn, I quoted the wrong one. I meant to quote the 'bare majority' one.

	11-05-2005 10:13									#103
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Getting 41% without stealing support from other parties would be virtually impossible, and would leave the Liberals in 3rd place in popular vote, an unlikely scenario...

	11-05-2005 10:14									#104
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As was two seats for Campbell, but it happened come election day.

	11-05-2005 10:14									#105
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither That's more ridiculous than what BK is saying. 40% is clear majority country.

40% is about the lowest anybody's ever achieved a majority with, IIRC.

	11-05-2005 10:15									#106
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Not that this question isn't academic, as pigs will fly before it happens...

	11-05-2005 10:17									#107
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I don't know anything about Canadian politics, but I think the odds of the Libs losing 98 of their seats, bringing them down to 27% of their former size, are slim to none, Ben.

	11-05-2005 10:18									#108
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Why ar ethe fuiciking quebveecqui9s spereatjst such ****ign idiotis? why not vite ND_P damn them? ****wits? Pedophilic (catholic ain't they? +) homiophobic se[preatists.

	11-05-2005 10:20									#109
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Why ar ethe fuiciking quebveecqui9s spereatjst such ****ign idiotis? why not vite ND_P damn them? ****wits? Pedophilic (catholic ain't they? +) homiophobic se[preatists.

Sleep it off, Ramo.

	11-05-2005 10:22									#110
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse 40% is about the lowest anybody's ever achieved a majority with, IIRC.

No one has ever had a minority with 40% as far back as I looked.

	11-05-2005 10:23									#111
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Go back to '63 to see it, but Pearson was special.

	11-05-2005 10:25									#112
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Which means it's a pretty decent cutoff number. I added in an extra couple of percentage points due to Cons' extremely high percentage in the West (especially at 40% nationally).

	11-05-2005 10:28									#113
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The thing about now is that if the Tories get anywhere near 40% they would be doing it without Quebec. If the Liberals did it it would be without 95% of Alberta and the rural West.

40% for either spells majority due to predictably poor showings in certain regions.

That could change if Quebec has a change of heart re the Tories and urban Ontario sticks stubornly to the Liberals, or if the West flipped to a battleground for the Liberals. You could see a truely national party with a minority and 40%.

	11-05-2005 10:37									#114
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The thing that could really kill the Liberals next time out is the feelings of their core base. In '93 Campbell was left to twist in the wind by many Tories. How will traditional Liberals feel about leaving their barbecues to go vote for the party that is on display before Gomery?

If a good chunk of their support stays home, Harper will bury them.

	11-05-2005 10:50									#115
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I think that would be why Harper knows he has to go now.

The 'wait for the judge to decide' is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. The voters are the rightful judges of the Liberals for the testimony heard before Gomery.

If the electorate are in a bloody mood, the Liberals have nobody to blame but themselves.

	11-05-2005 11:28									#117
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Great, nightmares of Stephen Harper

Thank you Asher!

	11-05-2005 11:36									#119
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Best post yet.

	11-05-2005 15:53									#120
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This is hilarious. Canadian Conservatives are getting excited at the last glimmer of hope they have of ever getting anything.

When will they learn that Canada is not a conservative country? The rule is: the Liberals win. Even if they get thrown out over this hoo haa they'll be back shortly since there isn't any realistic alternative to the Liberals.