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Spiffor
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CPA - Evil Clone brigade
Nov 2001
time: 06:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Wow it seems pretty much the entire country except for Paris, Brittany, the colonies, and a few spots near the border rejected the treaty. That has to make it even more embarassing for Chirac. |
Yes, this is a major slap in the face. But in comparison with last year's regional election (purple=left), it looks almost like a stunning success 
Actually, it's the first time I hear mainstream politicians (from the left) openly call for a resignation. And indeed, I think he'll be facing more hostility by his party. After last year's pathetic defeat, his only hope was to adress the problems of the French population. He was entirely unsuccessful (parts of the population were still seing their purchasing power sink, French companies were closing their French factories while making record profits and paying arrogant golden parachutes, things like that). I don't think there is any way he can lure his followers into believing he can restore his credibility among the general population.
I think Chirac has seriously lost touch with reality. He has just suffered an utter defeat, he's more unpopular than ever (according to other polls), and it's the time he chooses to say that we must unite behind him 
quote:
I guess it makes sense that as you suggest that in spite of the Socialist party being so devided on the constitution it shouldn't remain split, they can now simply camapign on the idea of a renegotiated treaty that doesn't incorporate liberal principles. |
Well, it will probably slip in somewhere in their platform during the 2007 presidential elections. My prediction is that the Socialists will be back at business as usual once they shuffle their leadership a bit (unless they actually split into several parties, which I really doubt). By "business as usual", I mean that they'll talk of whatever issue-of-the-day is fashionable, and Europe will probably not be one of them.
quote:
But still, it seems the Communists should now be able to claim that they are the only party which truly represents the views of the French left and not the political elite. |
Not exactly. There were several key figures in the socialist party (PS) that campaigned for the Non. Most notably Fabius: he's very centre (actually, I consider him to be centre right), and he had a vocal Non campaign. There also are some actual lefties at the PS that have vocally campaigned for the Non, and who have probably grown in significance within the party.
Besides, even though the Commie Party (PCF) was instrumental in organizing the diverse left-wing Non voices, it was but one of these many voices. Further to the left, there are two significant far-left groups (the PCF is considered "parliamentary left"). And further to the right, there are the leftward Socialists.
The referendum will probably be an important step for the PCF in creating a broad electoral alliance for the many elections of 2007-2008 (in particular, we might even make peace with the far-lefties, finally), but I don't think it will mean that we can create a broad party akin to Canadia's NDP. And I'm sure that it won't mean a serious surge in our votes.
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I wonder, do you think Chirac will now face more hostility from his own party, with politicans distancing themselves or perhaps calling on Chirac to resign? After a result like this it would seem the presence of Chirac would have to be seen as a liability for their own party. |
Chirac will face more hostility, but he still has a strong charisma as the historical leader of the party. After all, his party was entirely his little thing from 1976 (the creation) to 2004. With Sarkozy taking over, it was the first time ever that Chirac wasn't in full control of the party.
Though he has probably lost significant credibility toward his own troops (who'll cheer Sarkozy in 2007), he still has quite some authority and charisma on them. Besides, prime minister Jean Pierre Raffarin is the one that suffers the worst ire of the public opinion. A Chirac fanboy may well put all the blame on Raffarin for the defeat.
Last edited by Spiffor on 30-05-2005 at 08:06
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Sloth
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quote:
Originally posted by Spiffor
3rd Myth (that will mostly be heard abroad IMO): This referendum shows that the French are anti-European. False.
A whooping 72% of the French population are "very favourable" or "rather favourable" to continue the European construction. Only 23% are opposed to it. |
Still this is, in my opinion, a MAJOR set-back European contruction (at least of political Europe), that will be delayed at best by 20 years or so.
In the the this will be the victory of England model of Europe as nothing more than a free-trade zone.
A MAJOR seppuku for Europe left, IMHO
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Bereta_Eder
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Why it is a good thing:
It was too liberal.
It didn't go far enough to achieve stronger united political voice.
Why it is a bad thing:
It was in part because french have "dominion issues" over the EU. I say in part. The vast part was because of internal french reasons
Turkey is almost dead after that concerning its entry to the EU. There is no provision for it without the con. (so far only for bulgaria and romania) and the vote was also in part because of EU people not wanting Turkey in. This will translate to more trouble in Greek Turkish relationss. violations of air space will mayby increase maybe soft crisis in the aegean etc and Ankara will be more intrasigent concerning Cyprus. (but then again what else is new)
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30-05-2005 07:11
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