03-06-2005 20:50									#91
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I'm not that optimistic what those "new ideas" would be though.

	03-06-2005 20:56									#92
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There's no harm in talking, although from the news reports it seems that Europe is hysterical right about now. I find it refreshing to see nobody at all "talking from the script" forced upon Europe by its crazy desire for consensus.

	03-06-2005 21:03									#93
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Well, the desire for consensus is to a large degree a neccessity IMO, since we are talking about so many different nation states not only with differnt POVs, but also with their own sensitivities. OTOH, you are right that it often means we are going down to the lowest common ground, which means crap results. But this is a dilemma which does not go away anytime soon IMO ....

	03-06-2005 21:08									#94
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I don't know how conensus is a realistic goal and I think it harms Europe by trying to have a consensus on everything.

For instance, consider the constitution. Everybody must ratify it for it to go into effect. That's crazy! We know it's crazy, because we tried it over 200 years ago.

	03-06-2005 21:09									#95
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro But this is a dilemma which does not go away anytime soon IMO ....

I think this is precisely the dilemma that will disappear in the near future. The current "crisis"* shows that a very difficult compromise has been shattered for different reasons, and you can't improve the compromise, because going one way would utterly dissatisfy the other.



*The word "crisis" deserves quotation marks, because I think this is nothing like an actual crisis. 66 years ago, a European crisis would have resulted on the death of untold millions. 12 years ago, a European crisis would have resulted in millions of unemployed. Today, the "crisis" results in politicians being dazed for a few weeks.
This "crisis" is much better than what would have undoubtedly awaited Europe if this unadaptable constitution had been accepted for the 30-50 years to come. Now, there would have been a real crisis.

	03-06-2005 21:13									#96
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't how you can be so optimistic about the state of EU democracy, Trajanus.

I can assure you that the EU optimism is shared. Or would the EU countries step out and like to go at it alone?

	03-06-2005 21:21									#97
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro I'm not that optimistic what those "new ideas" would be though.

They are very diverse:

One possibility is that the ratification process stops prematurely. Blair wants it, because British ratification would mean a referendum, and a referendum would mean Blair's political suicide.

Another possibility is that the ratification process continues unabated. That's what Schröder, Juncker and Chirac want. In these circumstances, the Council would decide of what to do in late 2006.

Another possibility is that the Nice Treaty become "Nice Plus", i.e. that the treaty gets amended, so that it has some new things from the dead constitution.

Another possibility is that there is a new convention that is elected by the Europeans, or that a new Constitution gets ratified by an Europe-wide referendum.

Somebody defends the idea that the constitution is inherently good, and can be accepted if the politicians explain ("dialogue" as in "Plan D") its contents.

Some believe that a new constitution should be rewritten, so that it becomes more democratic, more open to the wishes of the people. I am under the impression that, if there is any new constitution, it will be significantly more democratic indeed (several international presses and politicians see both Noes as a rejection of a top-down Europe)



As you can see, it's pretty much open.

	03-06-2005 21:23									#98
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't know how conensus is a realistic goal and I think it harms Europe by trying to have a consensus on everything. For instance, consider the constitution. Everybody must ratify it for it to go into effect. That's crazy! We know it's crazy, because we tried it over 200 years ago.

Purely on rational grounds, yes.....and if you look exclusively on a certain desired outcome, yes too - but it is also an emotional issue, and it touches the basic idea of the union, that it does not want to be a simple continuation of old national powerplay. I can just imagine the outcry if the majority of members implements a constitution over the heads of some smaller states (and I think the outcry would be even justified then).....of course in the long run, with an even bigger Eu something like a majority rule must be found, else the Eu isn't going anywhere. But to come to such a point is damn difficult.

	03-06-2005 21:26									#99
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I think it's well past time for Europe to work on majority rule, as democracy requires.

I understand the problems with this for the EU, but there are 25 members or whatever now! I would not wish to live under a system that isn't democratic, and I doubt that, in the final analysis, Europeans do either.

quote: Some believe that a new constitution should be rewritten, so that it becomes more democratic, more open to the wishes of the people. I am under the impression that, if there is any new constitution, it will be significantly more democratic indeed (several international presses and politicians see both Noes as a rejection of a top-down Europe)

Good show.

	03-06-2005 21:39									#100
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor *The word "crisis" deserves quotation marks, because I think this is nothing like an actual crisis. 66 years ago, a European crisis would have resulted on the death of untold millions. 12 years ago, a European crisis would have resulted in millions of unemployed. Today, the "crisis" results in politicians being dazed for a few weeks.

Spiffor, there ARE millions of unemployed in Europe! Just at what level does this constitute a "crisis" for you?15%? 20%? 25%!?

quote: This "crisis" is much better than what would have undoubtedly awaited Europe if this unadaptable constitution had been accepted for the 30-50 years to come. Now, there would have been a real crisis.

And meanwhile we have a "crisis" now, we have the Nice treaty which everybody agrees is worse than the "constitution" (treaty) plus 3-5 years of deadlock.

	03-06-2005 21:39									#101
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor As you can see, it's pretty much open.

I hope you're right. I just have the impression that currently the Eu has lost much appeal for many, and while some may be right about that due to certain negative aspects (what we mentioned here in various debates over and over; not enough democracy, transparency etc.) I think in other issues these feelings are pretty irrational.

Therefore I wonder if the next steps would have more success than the current con. I have sometimes the impression to many it plays not really a role if the Eu works good or bad, since they have already fallen back into a national mindset (not neccessarily nationalist), which simply does not need a union, or at least not a more integrated one (I don't mean a superstate, because I don't think that's a good idea myself for the foreseeable future).

But maybe these are my irrational feelings here

	03-06-2005 21:42									#102
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quote: Originally posted by CapTVK Spiffor, there ARE millions of unemployed in Europe! Just at what level does this constitute a "crisis" for you?15%? 20%? 25%!?

I wasn't aware these millions of unemployed were due to the Noes. I was under the impression that they were due to a variety of economic factors

Please tell me how the current "crisis" compares to the dastardly attacks on national currencies in 1993. Now that was a real crisis.

	03-06-2005 21:48									#103
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro Therefore I wonder if the next steps would have more success than the current con. I have sometimes the impression to many it plays not really a role if the Eu works good or bad, since they have already fallen back into a national mindset (not neccessarily nationalist), which simply does not need a union, or at least not a more integrated one (I don't mean a superstate, because I don't think that's a good idea myself for the foreseeable future).

Well, I think the divide on the future of the EU is fairly consistent. For example, the Netherlands have mostly rejected the treaty because they feared a superstate, while most Germans want further European integration, and support a re-negociation of the treaty (unless my German is that rusty )

Some countries are now having a national mindset, while other countries are having a more European mindset. If anything, the French Non is mostly a victory of those who want to see Europe deal positively with quality-of-life issues (wages, employment, public services, etc.)

	03-06-2005 21:52									#104
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It seems likely that many people fear a superstate in the absence of a clear constitution that is understandable to the layman. "Superstate" is a vague concept.

A much more detailed 10th Amendment to the US Constitution could solve this problem, or at least could be a good basis for negotiations and discussion. Colon wants this, for instance, and he seems set against a European superstate. Unfortunately, the US Constitution is durable on this point, but very weak.

quote: The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

	03-06-2005 21:59									#105
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DanS:
I have no idea how it works in the US, but the question of competences is one of the reasons why the EU one is so bloated. When you say precisely what kind of policies the Union is competent for, and what kind of policies it isn't competent for, you get bloated monsters.

	03-06-2005 22:04									#106
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Unfortunately, as stated, the 10th Amendment to the US Constitution is very durable but also very weak, because during the Great Depression and afterward it has been taken to mean that little is left to the States (a willfully incorrect reading).

This need not be bloated, in my view. It only needs to be a list of what is left to the States. The US Constitution briefly lists the powers of the congress, the judiciary, and the executive branch, but not the powers of the States.

Last edited by DanS on 03-06-2005 at 22:14

	03-06-2005 22:09									#107
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Well, I think the divide on the future of the EU is fairly consistent. For example, the Netherlands have mostly rejected the treaty because they feared a superstate, while most Germans want further European integration, and support a re-negociation of the treaty (unless my German is that rusty )

Yeah, but the devil is in the detail here - most people want generally this and that, integration and all, yet politicians as well as normal people seem also to be quick to complain about the Eu not only if it is justified, but also if it serves their purpose.

I think there's a certain.... hm...disharmony (poorly expressed probably) between domestic national politics and Eu, and also between the ideal of a more integrated Eu and the practical need for a compromise to make that work, esp. when this compromise means that certain people/states/politcal forces/whatever do not get their maximal goals through. In other words many of those which say they are for an Eu seem to mean they are for an Eu, but only to their own conditions - which contradicts the basic idea of such a union.

I could be wrong, but that is my impression.....

	03-06-2005 22:12									#108
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro In other words many of those which say they are for an Eu seem to mean they are for an Eu, but only to their own conditions - which contradicts the basic idea of such a union. I could be wrong, but that is my impression.....

I think you are right. However, I think the Germans have the potential to accept majority rule in the Union. Especially if the other countries that participate in this "Superstate Union" are similar minded. This is why I think the Germans could do with supranational decisions (provided they're democratic enough) whereas the Rosbifs simply can't.

	03-06-2005 22:19									#109
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I think you are right. However, I think the Germans have the potential to accept majority rule in the Union. Especially if the other countries that participate in this "Superstate Union" are similar minded. This is why I think the Germans could do with supranational decisions (provided they're democratic enough) whereas the Rosbifs simply can't.

the hypothesis being that Germans are closer to the French on issues of substance than the Brits.

1. How does this square with poll results showing strong support for the German CD's, who seem to have a platform that is more "neoliberal" than the CD had in earlier elections, if still perhaps to the left of Blairism(?)
2. Would Poland be interested in a tighter EU, more "social" and without UK?
3. If not, would that be an issue for Germany?
4. If Poland and Germany went different ways (Germany with France, and Poland with UK) how would Czecho and Hungary go? Denmark?

	03-06-2005 22:28									#110
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark 1. How does this square with poll results showing strong support for the German CD's, who seem to have a platform that is more "neoliberal" than the CD had in earlier elections, if still perhaps to the left of Blairism(?)

LOTM, the issue I was raising is not so much that of a social vs. liberal Europe, but the issue of national sovereignty, and on whether Europe should stop at being merely a free-trade area or not. The Germans are quite clearly on the side that wants the EU to be more than that.

quote: 2. Would Poland be interested in a tighter EU, more "social" and without UK?

I have no reliable info, but I'd say probably not. The Poles seem to be very protective of their national sovereignty.

quote: 3. If not, would that be an issue for Germany?

No idea.

quote: 4. If Poland and Germany went different ways (Germany with France, and Poland with UK) how would Czecho and Hungary go? Denmark?

I have no precise idea about Czech and Hungary, though I heard they differend quite a bit from the Poles on the issue.

Denmark would most probably want to go with the brits. They joined the EEC along with the Brits, and they have been consistently protective of their sovereignty (rejected the Maastritch treaty, rejected the Euro, opt-out of many policy areas)

	03-06-2005 22:30									#111
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark 2. Would Poland be interested in a tighter EU, more "social" and without UK?

I think this touches one of the key problems - as much as I am for good social standards, realistically they could mean economical disaster for eastern Europe when introduced Eu wide now. They can only be introduced if the economies there have enough power for those measures, which they probably do not have now, despite good growth rates at the moment in eastern Euro states..... (correct me if I am wrong - I don't claim to be an economy expert )

To your other q's

1 You mean the CDU? IMO simply because people are fed up with the current government. And since unemployment is still high after various measures they think another gov will do better, and there aren't much alternatives to most people.

3 and 4 I'm not sure

	03-06-2005 22:44									#112
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quote: Another possibility is that the Nice Treaty become "Nice Plus", i.e. that the treaty gets amended, so that it has some new things from the dead constitution.

That would be utterly useless. It would still be incomplete, and subsequently a new amendation or something similar will be developed later on. That's a never ending process in which different lobbyists would try to get their ideas accepted.

quote: Another possibility is that there is a new convention that is elected by the Europeans, or that a new Constitution gets ratified by an Europe-wide referendum.

A completely new constitution? You want to have the debates all over again? It's good as it is already.. Why live through the hassle again

quote: Some believe that a new constitution should be rewritten, so that it becomes more democratic, more open to the wishes of the people. I am under the impression that, if there is any new constitution, it will be significantly more democratic indeed (several international presses and politicians see both Noes as a rejection of a top-down Europe)

How do you define 'democratic'. I don't think you or anyone here would have anything to say in that 'new' constitution. Maybe populists would like to implement 'popular' ideas.. But where does that lead to? An ochlocracy probably.

Let's just stick to our elections. There is plenty of opportunity to make changes that way.
Very often European elections are largely ignored, including in Belgium. I remember our previous elections were held at the same time as the local elections (not the nationwide elections) and the European debate was not held. It was not thought of as important.
But now, all of a sudden... they don't like what's happening???
hypocrits, that's what I call 'em

	03-06-2005 22:54									#113
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro . And since unemployment is still high after various measures they think another gov will do better, and there aren't much alternatives to most people.

The PDS? It seems odd, from over here, that if folks were unhappy with the govt (SD/Green) for pushing too hard against social protections, that they then went and voted for the CDU (in NRW) when there were serious far left parties on the ballot. I mean its almost like you had a narrow, first past the post, two party system like we do here.

	03-06-2005 22:59									#114
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor LOTM, the issue I was raising is not so much that of a social vs. liberal Europe, but the issue of national sovereignty, and on whether Europe should stop at being merely a free-trade area or not. The Germans are quite clearly on the side that wants the EU to be more than that. quote: 2. Would Poland be interested in a tighter EU, more "social" and without UK? I have no reliable info, but I'd say probably not. The Poles seem to be very protective of their national sovereignty. quote: 3. If not, would that be an issue for Germany? No idea. quote: 4. If Poland and Germany went different ways (Germany with France, and Poland with UK) how would Czecho and Hungary go? Denmark? I have no precise idea about Czech and Hungary, though I heard they differend quite a bit from the Poles on the issue. Denmark would most probably want to go with the brits. They joined the EEC along with the Brits, and they have been consistently protective of their sovereignty (rejected the Maastritch treaty, rejected the Euro, opt-out of many policy areas)

I guess what im thinking is that while Germany is more open to a more integrated EU than UK is, Im still not sure if theyd rather have a small but very integrated EU (what I think you want) over a larger, less integrated EU (the Blair model?). And the smaller the "inner tier" gets, the less attractive it becomes. A more integrated EU of the 25, or of 20, is one thing. A more integrated EU consisting of the original 6, minus the Netherlands, plus Ireland, Spain, and Czecho (dragged along by its dependence on Germany) is quite another.

BTW, does anyone there ever have occasion to refer to the Europe of the 6, the Europe of the 9? Am I showing my age?

	03-06-2005 23:12									#115
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PDS could do maybe a bit better, but probably not much. In the western part of Germany they still don't have a good reputation, and aren't organized as well as in the east. There's talk about some new left movement/party/platform left of the SPD and including the PDS, but it probably comes too late for the next elections, and there are still lots of differences between the various leftist formations there.

About the CDU - the other parties are simply not able to get majorities, only SPD and CDU are considered mainstream parties, so if the feeling is anti-SPD now the CDU does not even need to do mcuh of its own to win. There is currently no alternative third party which would look attractive to many people here. So those have only the option not to vote, to vote more extreme (which usually does not happen at national scale) or to elect the former oppositon.

	03-06-2005 23:20									#116
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quote: Originally posted by Trajanus A completely new constitution? You want to have the debates all over again? It's good as it is already.. Why live through the hassle again

It sucks donkey balls. The constitution's only redeeming quality is that it is slightly less terrible than Nice. This constitution is definitely not something we can build Europe upon for the next 30-50 years.

quote: How do you define 'democratic'. I don't think you or anyone here would have anything to say in that 'new' constitution.

That's funny. I just had something to say about the current one, 5 days ago.

quote: Very often European elections are largely ignored, including in Belgium. I remember our previous elections were held at the same time as the local elections (not the nationwide elections) and the European debate was not held. It was not thought of as important. But now, all of a sudden... they don't like what's happening??? hypocrits, that's what I call 'em

The debate is structurated by the political parties and by the media. Both the political parties and the media see the local issues as easier, and they believe the audience will be more hooked by domestic debates than by european ones.
This situation creates a dire lack of European awareness among the population. This is why the population never openly criticizes the direction of Europe (considering that many still see politics strictly through the national scope).
During the referendum, despite the attempts to make the debate on domestic issues, the European awareness of the citizens has considerably increased. This is why, exceptionally, they had their say about how Europe is going. Both the French and the Dutch have expressed their strong discontent.

	04-06-2005 00:01									#117
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor During the referendum, despite the attempts to make the debate on domestic issues, the European awareness of the citizens has considerably increased. This is why, exceptionally, they had their say about how Europe is going. Both the French and the Dutch have expressed their strong discontent.

Yes, but awareness is not the same as being informed. Getting informed sometimes requires time and effort. The public may not have that kind of patience. Now you end up with a public that will decide on the basis of some quick&easy "facts" while the actual situation may be far more complex.

	04-06-2005 00:07									#118
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It looks like the budget restrictions imposed on nations that use the Euro are also a problem. Italy is considering withdrawing from using the Euro as currency. http://reuters.myway.com/article/20...LY-EURO-DC.html

	04-06-2005 00:07									#119
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That would be most unwise

	04-06-2005 00:09									#120
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Can I ask a stupendously dumb question?

What is wrong with using the US constitution as a template for a United States of Europe?