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CapTVK is offline CapTVK
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Every European nation would have to scrap its own constitution before they can implement a US-European style one.

Simply not happening in the next 30-50 years

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"This situation creates a dire lack of European awareness among the population. This is why the population never openly criticizes the direction of Europe (considering that many still see politics strictly through the national scope)."


"The Revolution was effected before the war commenced. The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people." John Adams.

Doesnt it seem that a European political consciousness needs to be established BEFORE common, democratic, European institutions are? When a common political discourse happens naturally (as it did here between 1763 and 1775) the press will follow.

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quote:
Originally posted by CapTVK

Simply not happening in the next 30-50 years


As far as Denmark giving up its constitution in favour of a supranational one, call it never.

CapTVK is offline CapTVK
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LotM


Try to imagine the orginal US states all being run by a different colonizer. With different languages spoken in each, different rules of law, different customs and traditions and each with their own ties to the motherland.


Now, explain to me how the American revolution would have gone.

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quote:
Originally posted by Winston


As far as Denmark giving up its constitution in favour of a supranational one, call it never.


I was relying on Spiffor´s numbers

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quote:
Originally posted by Ned
It looks like the budget restrictions imposed on nations that use the Euro are also a problem. Italy is considering withdrawing from using the Euro as currency. http://reuters.myway.com/article/20...LY-EURO-DC.html

One League nutjob, even if he's in the ruling coalition, doesn't Italy make. I wouldn't take it any seriously, unless Berlusconi starts mentioning the idea as something sane, or if a large chunk of the Italian population supports it.

The Northern League is a party of crazies however. They're necessary for Berlusconi to keep power, but many of their outrageous stances are never backed by their allies.

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quote:
Originally posted by CapTVK
I was relying on Spiffor´s numbers

Well, I certainly don't want a US-like constitution. It's completely unadapted to Europe's situation:

1. Most countries hate the very idea of losing a bit of sovereignty. These countries would never fit in a US-like federation, at least until the common mentalities have considerably changed.

2. Even when we talk about countries that tolerate losing sovereignty, they definitely won't be ready for being integrated in the United States of Europe for at least several decades.


The reason why I opposed this particular constitution is because it was not only bloated (it was full of precise policies that have nothing to do in a constitution), but also because it was unchangeable. Over the decades, these precise economic polcies would have been doomed to be unadapted to the world (which changes), and it would have created the conditions of a nasty crisis.

If the constitution, as sucky as it was, was modifiable, then I'd have voted for it in a heartbeat. The EU desperately needs to be more dynamic, and this requires sensible rules to modify the rules.

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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
Doesnt it seem that a European political consciousness needs to be established BEFORE common, democratic, European institutions are?

It's unlikely to happen. The current European institutions are extremely complex. They aren't an object that is easy to evaluate, like the King in London or the taxes. Besides, the different values and historical backgrounds in European countries make it even less likely for a European conciousness to occur.

OTOH, it has been noticed that the people gets to learn the values of its political system, if it's exposed long enough and intensively enough to these values. If the EU had a relevant Parliament, then the population's learning of European values would follow.

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quote:
Originally posted by Spiffor

It's unlikely to happen. The current European institutions are extremely complex. They aren't an object that is easy to evaluate, like the King in London or the taxes. Besides, the different values and historical backgrounds in European countries make it even less likely for a European conciousness to occur.

OTOH, it has been noticed that the people gets to learn the values of its political system, if it's exposed long enough and intensively enough to these values. If the EU had a relevant Parliament, then the population's learning of European values would follow.


I put the word "before" in bold for a reason. I really dont think a relevant Parliament will teach anything of value until theres a common spirit - otherwise you just shift the national differences to the parliament. When you have a common discourse, then the issues beofre parliament will unite across national lines. I think the common discourse must come first. In 18thc British North America it took a series of wars with France, and then an intense, 13 year long crises with Great Britain to create that common consciousness, even WITH the base of a common language, legal background, etc.

What Im leading towards, is that Europe may be better off with a Europe light, no more integrated than Nice, and perhaps accepting the limits on effectiveness created by expansion under the old rules. And let time under THOSE rules, and the natural growth together of society, and the course of history, and THEN revisit the matter. Why is political integration NOW required?

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quote:
Originally posted by Spiffor

It's unlikely to happen. The current European institutions are extremely complex. They aren't an object that is easy to evaluate, like the King in London or the taxes.


Have you read the Federalist Papers? The issues that came up when the US constitution was being considered (which occured after independence, BTW) were difficult enough to generate one of the great works of political thought. Im not sure the Euro constitution is so difficult for the people intellectually, its just exceptionally detailed. Like State constitutions over here.

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I have no idea why one would think that an EU member state would have to scrap its own constitution to ratify a federal constitution. Didn't happen when the US colonies ratified the US constitution. What makes European constitutions different?

Also, US states can spend what they want and can run budget deficits to their liking. I have no idea why Euro-currency countries have to restrain their spending. Makes no sense.

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quote:
Originally posted by Ned
I have no idea why one would think that an EU member state would have to scrap its own constitution to ratify a federal constitution. Didn't happen when the US colonies ratified the US constitution. What makes European constitutions different?

Also, US states can spend what they want and can run budget deficits to their liking. I have no idea why Euro-currency countries have to restrain their spending. Makes no sense.


1. Most states have limits on deficits
2. No state is really large enough to deliberately manipulate the macro economy by its actions - to run their deficits so high, that they can impact interest rates, and force the central bank to accomodate them. A Germany, or France, can run deficits high enough to singlehandedly raise rates throughout Euroland, forcing the European Central Bank to respond. Or thats my understanding.

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LOTM:
When I said that the European institutions are extremely complex, I didn't mean that they relied on complex thought (quite the opposite actually, there is very little theoretical thought associated with the con), but that the "who hold what power" question is horribly complicated.

A EU decision originates in the Commission, which is a body of political technicians. It is then haggled by the Council (a body of technicians that each have the interest of their country in mind) for monthes/years, before being handed to the parliament, that may or may not have a binding opinion of it. When this little micrcosmos doesn't agree with each other, the process continues as there is an ombudsman between the Council and the Parliament, and there can be up to two conciliations IIRC ( during which each party can do some amendments)

Among my circle of geeky friends, the European awareness has risen when the Parliament was pondering software patents, some years ago. What exactly happened is still puzzling to them, and it's not due to a lack of transparency (the Parliament and Commission publish everything). It's due to the fact that there is not one body that clearly decides what happens.

Besides, most important EU decisions are "directives", i.e. binding general guidelines that have to be turned into national legislation by the national lawmakers. When the lawmakers change the laws, and if it's unpopular, they blame the EU for it.


In a city, when you're unhappy with the local taxes or with the local services, you change the mayor. In a country, when you're unhappy with the country issues, you change the president/parliament. In Europe, it's different. Firstly, you don't really know if it's a European issue you're unhappy about: after all, it's national politicians that are doing the job. And even if you're aware that it's European, you don't know who to blame for. Was it the agriculture minister of Luxemburg or Poland's Industry ministry's envoy that pushed for it?

In EU institutions, the decision-power over one issue is dissolved among dozens, if not thousands of unknown decision-makers. They can be known if you look (as I said, everything is published), but the complicatedness is just repellent for anybody but the parties involved, the relevant lobbies, and the political parties. The ordinary citizen can simply not get this crap straight.

Spiffor is offline Spiffor
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
No state is really large enough to deliberately manipulate the macro economy by its actions - to run their deficits so high, that they can impact interest rates, and force the central bank to accomodate them. A Germany, or France, can run deficits high enough to singlehandedly raise rates throughout Euroland, forcing the European Central Bank to respond. Or thats my understanding.

Maybe the rationale behind the stability pact is becoming like that, but it was definitely not the rationale at the beginning.

The Germans wanted the stability pact because they have an irrational obsession for monetary stability, and they didn't want the undisciplined French/Italians/Greeks/Portuguese to ruin this nice little currency (with good reason though: France and Italy had a history of competitive devaluations).

The stability pact was a way to create trust where there wasn't.

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and spiff, in the period 1763 to 1775, there were NO demcratically responsible officials across British North America. IIUC there was a common postmaster, and someone in charge of the customs service, and both reported to the Colonial Office in London. Decisions were made in London, based on clout, bribery, lobbying, aristocratic patronage, etc. Individual colonies, landholders, etc hired their own agents to lobby in London. It was quite Byzantine - meanwhile the 13 colonies had different constitutions - 2 had elected governors, two had governors appointed by a proprietor with quasi feudal rights, and the rest had royal governors appointed by the colonial office. All had elected lower house of the legislature, and the situations with the upper houses was complex. Political relations between the colonies was largely informal.

The sense of common identity was NOT defined by common institutions - but by common experience, a gradually cohering society, etc. Society drove the state, not the other way around (a poor Marxist you are )

See by contrast the United Kingdom - where Scotland, England, and Wales sharing a common set of institutions, with power relations as simple and direct as one could hope for (much more so in post 1830 UK than in the US) has NOT generated a common idenity, or did so only when real historical circumstances (first european religious conflict, than the existence of the British empire) did so, and when circumstances changed, the underlying common identity was thin.

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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


1. Most states have limits on deficits
2. No state is really large enough to deliberately manipulate the macro economy by its actions - to run their deficits so high, that they can impact interest rates, and force the central bank to accomodate them. A Germany, or France, can run deficits high enough to singlehandedly raise rates throughout Euroland, forcing the European Central Bank to respond. Or thats my understanding.


1) The US states are required to perfectly balance their budget right? Some EU countries should take an example of this...

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quote:
Originally posted by Spiffor

Maybe the rationale behind the stability pact is becoming like that, but it was definitely not the rationale at the beginning.

The Germans wanted the stability pact because they have an irrational obsession for monetary stability, and they didn't want the undisciplined French/Italians/Greeks/Portuguese to ruin this nice little currency (with good reason though: France and Italy had a history of competitive devaluations).

The stability pact was a way to create trust where there wasn't.



Im trying to respond to Ned, who seemingly didnt understand how a France or Italy could force a devalutation on the Euro, when, say, Arkansas, or even California, cant do so on the US dollar.

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quote:
Originally posted by CapTVK


1) The US states are required to perfectly balance their budget right? Some EU countries should take an example of this...


Not under the US constitution, but most State constitutions require it.

CapTVK is offline CapTVK
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


Not under the US constitution, but most State constitutions require it.


There´s a lesson here!

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I'm still a little puzzled about the Euro. Surely member countries have no authority to print Euro's. If they run a deficit, they have to borrow money on the open market. How is that different from any company borrowing money on the open market?

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Well, the US had a rather cohesive society, with fairly similar aims, and a fairly similar history. All this created a feeling of national identity, which is always useful when creating a country.

European society isn't cohesive at all. We have 20 official languages, 25 different countries. We have millenia of history that shaped completely different worldviews. Ever since the 18th century (your point of reference), we managed to view eye-to-eye on the following: War is bad, democracy is good. It's a fairly short list of what can be considered as Europe-wide shared values

Nobody here realitically calls for a USE anytime soon. The very idea behind the EU is that the trans-border cooperations shouldn't come from the top (from the political area), but from the bottom (from economic cooperation). This was the driving idea for the past 60 years.
This must remain the driving idea for many countries: those that are the most attached to their national sovereignty, and those that have only recently joined.

But for several core countries, the time is now right to create poltiical cooperations along with the exisitng economic ones.

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quote:
Originally posted by Ned
I'm still a little puzzled about the Euro. Surely member countries have no authority to print Euro's. If they run a deficit, they have to borrow money on the open market. How is that different from any company borrowing money on the open market?


short answer: No one company is as large as the largest countries in Europe.

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quote:
Originally posted by Ned
How is that different from any company borrowing money on the open market?

3% public deficit in France = 50 billion Euros yearly (roughly).
I think Italy has an economy similar to France's, so make it a similar amount for Italy.

100 billion Euros of yearly deficit is not something the average company can put off. And this is the accepted margin. Now, imagine a deficit crisis where the amount is doubled, and you'll get the picture

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quote:
Originally posted by Spiffor
.

But for several core countries, the time is now right to create poltiical cooperations along with the exisitng economic ones.



I still fail to see why.

AFAICT, the project of further centralizing the EU was heavily driven by the events of 1989 - 1991. Germany was united, and eastern europe, Germanys traditional sphere, was now out of Russian control and open to German influence. This was dangerous to everyone who wasnt Germany, since there was fear of German power, and dangerous to Germany as well, since fear of German power could lead to an anti-German coalition. Strengthening the EU meant that it would be the EU that would succeed Russia in Eastern Europe, not Germany per se, and that German binding to France would reassure everyone.

Well its not 1991 anymore. Its 2005, and the Eastern European countries have emerged as fairly solidly sovereign, with relations to all great powers, and not particularly easy to dominate. Germany, OTOH, has remained stubbornly pacifist. And whats more, the existing European institutions have proven adequate to bind it to Europe.

There IS a real issue that Europe works more creakily with its larger membership. But Im not sure that trumps all other considerations.

The only real impulse for significant further integration, is to maintain a larger European role abroad (larger than the individual powers could manage on their own). And frankly I dont see that most Europeans really care about that.

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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
I still fail to see why.

Democratization. Harmonization of economic policies (taxation, mostly)

You can only democratize the EU if you give more power to the European Parliament, at the expanse of the national governments. National Parliaments are very poor when it comes to haggle with 24 partners.

You can only further harmonize the EU's economic policies if the individual governments have less ability to block things.

Edit: besides, the efficiency of the European decision-making is terrible. The constitution would have made it a bit less creaky, but it would have still been very very bad.

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quote:
Originally posted by Spiffor

3% public deficit in France = 50 billion Euros yearly (roughly).
I think Italy has an economy similar to France's, so make it a similar amount for Italy.

100 billion Euros of yearly deficit is not something the average company can put off. And this is the accepted margin. Now, imagine a deficit crisis where the amount is doubled, and you'll get the picture



Stick to the facts Spiffor!

You know it is -3.7% for 2004 (almost 60bn euros) and the year before that it was -4,2%

Italy is hanging on at -3,0% and i wonder when that figure is going to be revised.

http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/port...na_geng/na200pc

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CapTVK: I was talking about the accepted margin, whichj is already quite a load of money. When the Stability pact has been revised, I may have skipped some things. I thought the only significant changes for today's situation were that Germany's deficit that went to the East's modernization didn't count, and that there was more leniency in times of recession. Did the revision change something for France's current situation?

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quote:
Originally posted by Spiffor

3% public deficit in France = 50 billion Euros yearly (roughly).
I think Italy has an economy similar to France's, so make it a similar amount for Italy.

100 billion Euros of yearly deficit is not something the average company can put off. And this is the accepted margin. Now, imagine a deficit crisis where the amount is doubled, and you'll get the picture


All this assumes that deficits cause inflation. They don't to the extent they spur growth and growth in the economy equals or exceeds the growth of debt. This "debt to equity" ratio could actually fall even as deficits rise. That is why the US has little or no inflation despite years of very large deficits.

The problem with Europe is that they cannot deliberately use fiscal policy to combat stagnation and promote growth. In such an enviroment, one is bout to have stagnation, which is what we actually see.

 
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