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Boris Godunov
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Portland, OR
Aug 2001 time: 00:35
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I'm trying to do the math to see if they actually take into account that 1/3 of his support does not come into play,
Nearly equally is a big difference than precisely equal. Where's the percentage Boris? In this sort of thing, the percentages make a significant factor, as does the assumption that the Perot vote splits equally in every state. We don't know whether a significant amount of the dem support for Perot was concentrated in urban areas, (a reasonable assumption), while the republican support for Perot was spread out in rural areas across the country.
So saying half of the total Perot democratic vote ends up in NY and in California, means that Perot's republican support cost Bush the election. |
Apparently you didn't actually bother to read the analysis.
He lists all the states that Clinton won that could have shifted to Bush without Perot, and Clinton still wins:
quote: Analysis: Perot's vote totals in themselves likely did not cause Clinton to win. Even if all of these states had shifted to Bush and none of Bush's victories had been reversed (as seems plausible, in fact, as Bush won by less than 5% only in states that a Republican in a close election could expect to carry, particularly before some of the partisan shifts that took place later in the 1990s ñ Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Dakota and Virginia), Clinton still would have won the electoral college vote by 281 to 257. But such a result obviously would have made the race a good deal closer. |
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Ben Kenobi
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McGregornobi!
Oct 2002 time: 21:35
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quote:
Wrong again. Of course, anyone who knows a thing about politics knows that would be irrelevent even if it were true, since Kerry and Clinton are very different candidates.
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And Bush Jr is a war president, and pwns Bush Sr. Just because Clinton could beat Bush Sr. in peacetime, doesn't mean that he is going to retain the 53 percent, even including the percentage alotted from Perot, against Bush Jr.
Kerry did well to get 48% percent against Bush in 2004, also accounting for population growth, and the increase in voter turnout. To suggest that Clinton could have done better than Kerry is far from certain, given the political climate. After all, it was said well before that Clinton made a good peacetime president, and a poor wartime one.
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Clinton in 1996: 49.2%
Kerry in 2004: 48%
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Ah, I didn't think he was quite that high in 1996. You are quite right Boris and I have to amend my statement.
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How convenient that you've forgotten the Perot factor this time, after I showed that he drew evenly from each candidate.
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All things considered, since Shrub did beat the Gore/Leiberman ticket in peacetime, I don't see Clinton winning in wartime.
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