31-08-2005 07:18									#91
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Osama must be behind the hurricane.

Bush to enact the War Against Nature.

	31-08-2005 11:01									#93
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quote: Originally posted by Bkeela Osama must be behind the hurricane. Bush to enact the War Against Nature.

That's already been done. It's called Operation: Clear Skies Initiative.

	31-08-2005 11:15									#94
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So much for the theory that global warming is increasing the number and severity of hurricanes (in America, at least)...

http://eurota.blogspot.com/2005/08/...nother-one.html

	01-09-2005 19:53									#95
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Reuters is reporting about Bush that he said:

"He defended the federal government's response so far to the growing crisis amid urgent pleas for help from stranded victims. He said the breach of the levees that led to the submerging of much of New Orleans had not been anticipated."

Really, George? So all those articles and papers I can easily dig up from the past several years in which experts were stating that a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane hitting New Orleans would cause levee breaches that would flood the city...

	01-09-2005 20:03									#96
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten So much for the theory that global warming is increasing the number and severity of hurricanes (in America, at least)... http://eurota.blogspot.com/2005/08/...nother-one.html

I love it. Drake has some idiot's blog for everything.

I love his stats... too bad he doesn't realize that "Hurricanes to strike US" does not equal TOTAL HURRICANES IN THE WORLD.

So please Drake, just like you did with Terry Schiavo threads, keep on posting these right wing blog links with zero credibility. They're always good for a laugh

	01-09-2005 20:51									#97
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten So much for the theory that global warming is increasing the number and severity of hurricanes (in America, at least)... http://eurota.blogspot.com/2005/08/...nother-one.html

quote: Of course, 2001-2004 is not a complete decade.

3 years, huh? Well, if we have 9 every 3 years (as the graph indicates), I guess that means we should have 27-30 over the decade (if the rate sticks).

That'd mean this decade saw more than any other decade.

And major hurricane strikes? Well, at 3 in 3 years (none of this counting this year), that should make 10. Highest ever, tied with 41-50.

Good job Drake.

	01-09-2005 20:54									#98
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Two separate threads in which Drake gets schooled over a single link. More bang for the buck, I suppose.

	01-09-2005 21:14									#99
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Reuters is reporting about Bush that he said: "He defended the federal government's response so far to the growing crisis amid urgent pleas for help from stranded victims. He said the breach of the levees that led to the submerging of much of New Orleans had not been anticipated."

Like father, like son.

	01-09-2005 21:16									#100
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quote: In the western Pacific, now Tropical Storm Talim that slammed Taiwan as a typhoon on Wednesday with strong winds and flooding rains has moved into mainland China. Typhoon Nabi has top winds of 145 mph and is forecast to become a Super Typhoon with winds of 160 mph or higher. This typhoon has passed the islands of Saipan and Tinian. It is now expected to head toward the islands of southern Japan near Naha and then turn up toward the southern mainland of Japan and possibly South Korea. All residents and people traveling to the region will need to monitor this very dangerous storm the next few days.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/t...m=wxcenter_news

	01-09-2005 21:23									#101
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Everyone point at Drake and laugh.

	01-09-2005 21:42									#102
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http://www.discover.com/issues/sep-...cover-dialogue/

	01-09-2005 22:35									#103
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IMO Discover is crap.

I'm not weighing in on this though.

	01-09-2005 22:38									#104
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Frequently it is, but this particular guy is the guru of hurricane season prediction.

	01-09-2005 23:09									#105
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Frequently it is, but this particular guy is the guru of hurricane season prediction.

It's worth quoting his views on climate change in full:

quote: You don’t believe global warming is causing climate change? G: No. If it is, it is causing such a small part that it is negligible. I’m not disputing that there has been global warming. There was a lot of global warming in the 1930s and ’40s, and then there was a slight global cooling from the middle ’40s to the early ’70s. And there has been warming since the middle ’70s, especially in the last 10 years. But this is natural, due to ocean circulation changes and other factors. It is not human induced. That must be a controversial position among hurricane researchers. G: Nearly all of my colleagues who have been around 40 or 50 years are skeptical as hell about this whole global-warming thing. But no one asks us. If you don’t know anything about how the atmosphere functions, you will of course say, “Look, greenhouse gases are going up, the globe is warming, they must be related.” Well, just because there are two associations, changing with the same sign, doesn’t mean that one is causing the other. With last year’s hurricane season so active, and this year’s looking like it will be, won’t people say it’s evidence of global warming? G: The Atlantic has had more of these storms in the least 10 years or so, but in other ocean basins, activity is slightly down. Why would that be so if this is climate change? The Atlantic is a special basin? The number of major storms in the Atlantic also went way down from the middle 1960s to the middle ’90s, when greenhouse gases were going up. Why is there scientific support for the idea? G: So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing—all these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more. Now that the cold war is over, we have to generate a common enemy to support science, and what better common enemy for the globe than greenhouse gases? Are your funding problems due in part to your views? G: I can’t be sure, but I think that’s a lot of the reason. I have been around 50 years, so my views on this are well known. I had NOAA money for 30 some years, and then when the Clinton administration came in and Gore started directing some of the environmental stuff, I was cut off. I couldn’t get any NOAA money. They turned down 13 straight proposals from me.

He clearly deserves respect for his work and credentials. But are you saying that you buy his explanation for global warming? That its a big boogeyman invented by scientists to secure funding? If so, it's a huge shift in your position, based on one expert's opinion.

Whether or not he is correct about global warming's effect on hurricanes, the vast majority of climatologists agree that human activity is dramatically influencing world climate. And there is lots of evidence - just look at what's happening to the Canadian arctic.

I'm sorry Che, I think this guy is an old school meteorologist, sticking to old school ideas.

	02-09-2005 04:34									#106
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Christ, you guys are dense. The number and intensity of hurricanes striking the US have been on the decline since the 1950's, the same period when global warming was supposedly jacking up world temperatures. It's pretty obvious from the factual data that global warming has had little to no effect on hurricane formation and strength (unless you want to argue that global warming has actually inhibited hurricane formation, but that doesn't really fit any of your politics). We may finally be experiencing an upsurge in hurricane activity (and no Emperor Fabulous, your simplistic predictions for the rest of the decade don't count as facts), but there is no reason whatsoever to think global warming is behind said upsurge rather than a natural cause.

	02-09-2005 04:52									#107
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quote: Originally posted by techumseh He clearly deserves respect for his work and credentials. But are you saying that you buy his explanation for global warming? That its a big boogeyman invented by scientists to secure funding? If so, it's a huge shift in your position, based on one expert's opinion.

No, that's not my opinion, but if the oceanographic data doesn't support global warming influencing hurricane formation, I have to take that seriously, especially given the decrease in tropical cyclonic activity elsewhere.

The is considerable evidence for climate change, but it seems the poles are heating more than the tropics. In a dynamic system, I suppose that's a possible outcome.

	02-09-2005 04:53									#108
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Christ, you guys are dense. The number and intensity of hurricanes striking the US have been on the decline since the 1950's, the same period when global warming was supposedly jacking up world temperatures.

Uh, no. The last eight years have had a record number of storms in the Atlantic basin.

	02-09-2005 04:54									#109
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quote: No, that's not my opinion, but if the oceanographic data doesn't support global warming influencing hurricane formation, I have to take that seriously, especially given the decrease in tropical cyclonic activity elsewhere.

I hate to support che (), but he's right on the money. Many of you have forgotten what real science is.

quote: Uh, no. The last eight years have had a record number of storms in the Atlantic basin.

I don't disagree.

quote: We may finally be experiencing an upsurge in hurricane activity (and no Emperor Fabulous, your simplistic predictions for the rest of the decade don't count as facts), but there is no reason whatsoever to think global warming is behind said upsurge rather than a natural cause.

	02-09-2005 04:55									#110
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten I hate to support che (), but he's right on the money. Many of you have forgotten what real science is.

QFT

	02-09-2005 05:00									#111
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DT, a decade is a completely arbitrary unit of time, which merely corresponds to humans love of round numbers. Nature doesn't respect a deacde, especially not according to the Christian calender.

The only practical unit of measure is singular hurricane season. Broken down into months might give us even more useful data, since storms in June and Novermber (and even December) are rare in the Atlantic. This would give us more accurate info on whether global warming is having an effect on the frequency of storms.

	02-09-2005 05:05									#112
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Give the guy a break. He at least took the time to put the official data in graph form for all of us to see. If the graph doesn't meet your approval, fine, but it's better than nothing. You can at least see the general trend, which is hurricanes peaking in the '50s, declining until the '90s and then going on an uptick at the current time that may or may not turn into a prolonged upsurge in hurricane activity.

	02-09-2005 05:11									#113
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He didn't really do all that much work.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

	02-09-2005 05:14									#114
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Not saying he did, but it's more than most other people have done.

Why don't you make a new graph, with yearly and monthly breakdowns? I'd like to see it...

	02-09-2005 05:16									#115
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If I can find the data. Right now I'd have to limit it to major storms.

	02-09-2005 05:23									#116
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That would be better than nothing.

	02-09-2005 05:28									#117
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Wow, they have records of hurricanes going back to 1492.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdeadly.shtml

	02-09-2005 05:31									#118
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Holy ****. Probably not very accurate, but still...

	02-09-2005 05:37									#119
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quote: the number of fatalities during The Great Hurricane of 1780 exceeds the cumulative loss in any year (except 1780) and, in fact, in all other decades.

quote: The Great Hurricane developed during mid-October. It was one of three tropical cyclones to kill more than 1,000 people that month.

quote: Apparently, the 1780 hurricanes occurred during a 10- to 20-year period notable for numerous past deadly storms in the Atlantic

Wow, never knew about this storm.

	02-09-2005 05:42									#120
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Hmmm, this will be difficult, since many storms carried over into other months.