08-09-2005 23:47									#211
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

No, they were less ineffective then.

1984 to 1986 was, as I recall, largely the effect of a policy decision.

Not the type of relief that's available today.

	08-09-2005 23:47									#212
	Increase Your PM Length

Have a little perspective. Oil was $11 as recently as late 1998. There's no reason at all why it can't go there again. So plan your business accordingly.

	08-09-2005 23:52									#213
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Yes, it was.

That was 7 years ago. 2 billion+ people are living in developing countries that experience 7+% annual growth rate in their economies. Over 7 years that adds up to over 60% growth.

Now that we've picked up most of the world's excess capacity of cheap oil and we're finally beginning to see the resulting price increases, do you mind explaining to me how it's going to drop down to something like that ever again, without some sort of technological miracle, humongous new oil discovery or global economic depression?

	08-09-2005 23:59									#214
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Why is the choice between 7%+ growth and a depression? Sounds like you're making unwarranted assumptions about the future...

In any event, I know for a fact that the price of oil could be $30 tomorrow, because even the most marginal of producers can make good money at $30. Even the oil sands make good money at $30.

Last edited by DanS on 09-09-2005 at 00:04

	09-09-2005 00:06									#215
	Increase Your PM Length

That's a bit specious.

	09-09-2005 00:07									#216
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

KH or Dans?

	09-09-2005 00:10									#217
	Full PM-box? Change here!

DanS.

Whilst I agree oil prices could be $30 again I don't think your argument holds that simply because it can be profitable for producers to do so that it will mean that prices could fall to $30 by tomorrow.

Jacking up supply is not an overnight activity, so the only way for prices to fall is for demand to fall suddenly and markedly. Not going to happen overnight either.

	09-09-2005 00:14									#218
	Remove this text

OK, maybe not tomorrow. 8 months from now, just as happened in 1986. The "tomorrow" was rhetorical.

Last edited by DanS on 09-09-2005 at 00:28