19-09-2005 21:31									#151
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark But didnt that mean existing wages at the time were effectively converted to unrealistic levels?

Yes, - although "normal" eastern wages in 89 were already much lower than those in the west.

quote: How does nationwide collective bargaining impact relative wage levels - can a company establish different wage levels in the east than in the West, or do the labor agreements prevent that?

Today we have still lower wages in the east. Unions try to get the same wages everywhere in their industry/field, but while most people would simply like to have that (who wouldn't like more money) they also often realize that having lower wages is an advantage for attracting investments. At least in some eastern areas the lower wages have led to a successful revival of industries or at least companies which seemed to have no chance there during the 90ies. That is something which needs to continue. With unemployment so high unions now are often more willing to make concessions towards the employers, so they sometimes drop the "same wages" idea for getting new jobs.

	19-09-2005 21:47									#152
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so whats gonna happen now?
who will coalisize with who

	19-09-2005 21:59									#153
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At the moment nobody knows, there are just speculations flying around.

	19-09-2005 22:00									#154
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what happens if there is no coalition reached?
second elections?

	19-09-2005 22:04									#155
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Hm, I don't think we get another round of elections, I don't see how this would lead neccessarily to a more clear result. Negotiations now can take some time, and it is impossible to predict the outcome....maybe later when the "fog of war" begins to dissappear....

	19-09-2005 22:06									#156
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that blondie though, she really screwed it up eh?

and those declarations by her "finance minister"

schroeder 3 wives and 7 lives

	19-09-2005 22:26									#157
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Dan shows off his market fundamentalism again. To the Right a high growth rate has become an end unto itself. That fast growth ain't workth sh*t if it only makes the rich richer while the average Joe gets screwed.

	19-09-2005 22:30									#158
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I heard on NPR a while ago that Mrs. Merkel copied Reagan's "are you better off than you were 4 years ago" quote.

	19-09-2005 22:31									#159
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My approach is non-ideological.

	19-09-2005 22:34									#160
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quote: Originally posted by DanS My approach is non-ideological.

Modern Economics has been thouroughly infected in right-wing ideology ever since Friedmannism took over.

	19-09-2005 22:39									#161
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quote: Originally posted by DanS My approach is non-ideological.

Like hell it ain't.

	19-09-2005 22:52									#162
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quote: Originally posted by Odin Modern Economics has been thouroughly infected in right-wing ideology ever since Friedmannism took over.

Friedman never "took over" - there have been plenty of non-monetarists during and since his period of greatest influence. Freidmans influence beyond money and banking is rather limited, IIRC.

	20-09-2005 00:15									#163
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When you want some background info about the german economy there is a good ECONOMIST article.
I agree in most parts with HW Sinn (ifo munich) (and his proposals he has published in several books recently). (Actually the Economist supported Merkel but the analysis is really fair.)

It is unbelievable that our german media is unable to produce such kind of analysis.

Really, our government used it for their campaign. Everything in german media was just schroeder bashing.

http://www.bundesregierung.de/Anlag...ing+economy.pdf

http://www.bundesregierung.de/Anlag...r /> l+1%29.pdf

http://www.bundesregierung.de/Anlag...r /> l+2%29.pdf

http://www.bundesregierung.de/Anlag...r /> l+3%29.pdf

	20-09-2005 02:05									#164
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Interesting analysis and the first one that paints a more positive picture

	20-09-2005 05:47									#165
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Dilly of a pickle. It doesn't look like there's any way a coalition can be formed, given the breakdown of the votes and what the parties have ruled out in terms of partners.

My understanding is that if they are unsuccessful in forming a government, then the President gets to appoint a minority government. I'm guessing he'd appoint Schroeder's Social Dems, yes?

	20-09-2005 05:57									#166
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The offer to try should first go to Merkel, shouldn't it?

	20-09-2005 05:59									#167
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I don't think he's obligated to pick her party, even though they will have a 3-vote edge. At least, that was the gist of what I read.

	20-09-2005 06:06									#168
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Bypassing the most numerous party would cause the **** to hit the fan in most countries with parliaments. I'm not sure how close the Germans are to Westminster though.

	20-09-2005 06:13									#169
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Far away from Westminster. Wouldn't be the first time that the strongest party has to go into opposition. And since the CDU/CSU just has ~35 % of the votes it wouldn't be undemocratic if there was another coalition with 50+ % of the votes.

	20-09-2005 06:14									#170
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But isn't the opportunity given first to the largest party?

There is a difference between the largest party declining because they cannot cobble together a majority and not being asked at all.

	20-09-2005 06:26									#171
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Germany needs to go forward, not backwards.

We have to go forward, not backwards, upwards, not forwards, and always twirling, twirling, twirling, towards freedom!

	20-09-2005 06:32									#172
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither But isn't the opportunity given first to the largest party?

That's tradition but now law. The president theoretically could propose anyone he likes, but that person has to get the majority of the votes in the parliament in order to get appointed as chancellor, which is why they go through the process of coalition building. (I only quickly checked the German constitution so don't shoot me if I'm wrong: http://www.aceproject.org/main/samples/lf/lfx_l015.pdf )

	20-09-2005 06:36									#173
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quote: Originally posted by Atahualpa This is what vienase paper die Presse wrote about the german elections: Summary: Germany has not shown a clear sign for a political change, rather expressed its own ambiguity. A voting result as mirror of the german soul, on the one hand the wish for reforms and on the other hand the fear for it. The result of these ambiguous feelings is what we were seeing all the years: stagnation.

My understanding is that they wanted to vote for the CDU on the one hand, but didn't like Merkel, and wanted to vote for Schröder on the other hand, but didn't like the SDP. It's hard to send an unambigious signal if you aren't offered an easy picking.

	20-09-2005 06:56									#174
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quote: Originally posted by Colon That's tradition but now law. The president theoretically could propose anyone he likes, but that person has to get the majority of the votes in the parliament in order to get appointed as chancellor, which is why they go through the process of coalition building. (I only quickly checked the German constitution so don't shoot me if I'm wrong: http://www.aceproject.org/main/samples/lf/lfx_l015.pdf )

That's sort of what I thought, but a bit different.

Here it would be the GG asking the leader of the largest party 'can you form a majority?' and then, 'if you can't, will you govern as a minority?' He says no majority, but he would try minority. The GG goes to the next guy, 'can you form a majority?' 'Yes.' He's the next PM.

The PM wouldn't be appointed in the Commons, but his government would have to survive confidence (first vote, Throne Speech).

So it's a bit different, but the principles sound the same.

	20-09-2005 09:18									#175
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quote: Germany has not shown a clear sign for a political change

How's this:
Major parties got pwned, radicals gained votes. It's a clear mandate for a change.

Merkel didn't get >40% because she campaigned too safely, ducking the issues and trying to appease everyone.

Could someone from Germany answer my questions, btw:

quote: How blindly do the invididual MEP's follow the party policy in Germany? How well is the Linke's party structure organised? SPD could try to form a majority with the Greens if they succeed in wooing enough invididual commies to support them.

	20-09-2005 13:07									#176
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quote: Originally posted by Colon My understanding is that they wanted to vote for the CDU on the one hand, but didn't like Merkel, and wanted to vote for Schröder on the other hand, but didn't like the SDP. It's hard to send an unambigious signal if you aren't offered an easy picking.

You are probably right on spot about the CDU and Merkel. I am an East German living in arch-catholic and dark black (CSU dominant) Bavaria, and I know quite some people here, who were CSU voters for ages, but this time voted SPD, because they outright refuse to vote for a possible chancellor from East Germany. (EDIT: And as if this weren't already enough, she's also a woman - hint: the catholic church doesn't have female clerics - and as evangelic she has the wrong confession: /EDIT)

This would also explain the poor result of the CSU in Bavaria (usually about 60%, even up to 2/3, this time below 50%). Of course, this will never been officially admitted (out of PC reasons), but I have the gut feeling, that the CDU could have comfortably won with a West German candidate.

	20-09-2005 13:13									#177
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quote: Originally posted by VJ Could someone from Germany answer my questions, btw: quote: How blindly do the invididual MEP's follow the party policy in Germany? How well is the Linke's party structure organised? SPD could try to form a majority with the Greens if they succeed in wooing enough invididual commies to support them.

Following party policy is very widespread, dissidents happen, but are usually isolated and brought back in line quick.

The Linke is still unorganized, because it was founded mere 2 months ago out of an East German party (PDS, which is well organized) and a West German organization (WASG, poorly organized).

The SPD will hardly try a minority government tolerated by the left. The trenches between both are too deep and it would contain too much political dynamite. Besides, the very reason of the existence of the Linke is the fact, that the SPD has drifted too far toward the center, leaving its left flank open. They would hardly support the positions of the SPD.

	20-09-2005 13:27									#178
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov My understanding is that if they are unsuccessful in forming a government, then the President gets to appoint a minority government. I'm guessing he'd appoint Schroeder's Social Dems, yes?

Hardly, considering the fact, that he was elected for president with the votes of the conservatives, against the candidate of the SPD. Of course, as head of state he should be above party politics - and I don't accuse him otherwise - so far he's been a good president, but considering the fact, that the CDU has a slim majority, he would rather choose his roots, i.e. the conservative canditate.

	20-09-2005 17:56									#179
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quote: My understanding is that they wanted to vote for the CDU on the one hand, but didn't like Merkel, and wanted to vote for Schröder on the other hand, but didn't like the SDP.

My interpretation of the result:

They didnt want red-green for sure. (they couldnt do anything without cdu anyway...so everything was far to slow.)

Merkel was 24 points ahead a few months ago. Because the west german left didnt vote the ex-commies pds.

Then linke was founded by two charismatic figures (Lafontaine and Gysi). Further, Merkel was absolutely sure that she had won already. She asked an ex-lawyer and "tax-expert" to join there team but I dont think that any of his extreme proposals would help us. This guy is rarely a tax expert...he is more like A. Laffer a populist.

So the germans actually want a grand coalition. And with this surprising result it seems that Schroeder should be chancellor. The SPD claims now they are the party with the most seats because they separate between CDU and CSU now.

	20-09-2005 18:20									#180
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quote: Originally posted by Colon My understanding is that they wanted to vote for the CDU on the one hand, but didn't like Merkel, and wanted to vote for Schröder on the other hand, but didn't like the SDP. It's hard to send an unambigious signal if you aren't offered an easy picking.

yah, well, thats so, cough, cough.