18-09-2005 21:50									#1
	German Elections -- Results Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

I hope the mods don't kill this, but the other thread has turned into a spam orgy

So, there are of course no final results yet, but the current standings indicate that no side (Social Democrats/Greens = SPD/Greens vs. Conservatives/Liberals = CDU/FDP) has won decisively. Theoretically there is the chance of a so called red-red-green coalition with Social Democrats, Greens and the more leftist party ("Linke").

But practically the Linke will probably not play a role since the other parties see them still as a derivate of the former Eastern communist party SED and therefore don't like them as partner in a coalition.

So the most probable government for now seems to be a so-called "grand coalition" of Social Democrats and Conservatives.

Current numbers from the two major German tv stations:

ARD 18.39 local time

SPD 33,7 %
CDU 35,7 %
FDP 10,3 %
Green 8,3%
Linke 8,1 %
Others 4,0 %

ZDF 18.34

SPD 33,6 %
CDU 35,9 %
FDP 10,4 %
Green 8,2 %
Linke 8,1 %
Others 3,8 %

	18-09-2005 22:03									#2
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I guess nobody expected that!

	18-09-2005 22:05									#3
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Go Others Go!

	18-09-2005 22:10									#4
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quote: Originally posted by VetLegion Go Others Go!

The others were cool when the Biertrinkerunion (beer drinkers union) was still there, but now they suck. Mostly neonazis and some non-neonazi, but mostly still stupid little parties.

Others

	18-09-2005 22:24									#5
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Is there any link to a site which has the votes cast state-by-state? I've heard the division of East and West is still very obvious.

	18-09-2005 22:37									#6
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With this weak CDU it was actually more north-south again.

	18-09-2005 22:37									#7
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I heard it's also a division North vs South

	18-09-2005 22:40									#8
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links

	18-09-2005 22:41									#9
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moment

	18-09-2005 22:57									#10
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quote: Originally posted by VJ Is there any link to a site which has the votes cast state-by-state? I've heard the division of East and West is still very obvious.

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/

	18-09-2005 23:01									#11
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but still no map?!

	18-09-2005 23:26									#12
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Another weak effort by Hasselhoff

	18-09-2005 23:27									#13
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How blindly do the invididual MEP's follow the party policy in Germany? How well is the Linke's party structure organised? SPD could try to form a majority with the Greens if they succeed in wooing enough invididual commies to support them.

	18-09-2005 23:30									#14
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Is this a proper description: The CDU/CSU did worse than expected; the FDP did better than expected; the SPD did better than expected; the greens did worse than expected?

	18-09-2005 23:33									#15
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CDU did worse than excepted, that seems to be true. They were supposed to be the big winners this time around.

Attachment: de.png
This has been downloaded 125 time(s).

	18-09-2005 23:34									#16
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In the other thread with response to Siren:

quote: Actually I am proud of his resistance with respect to the lies we heard from the Bush-administration.

Don't you have enough domestic issues on which to vote? I'm surprised that you're willing to forgive Schroeder's long list of failures for one largely irrelevant success.

	18-09-2005 23:44									#17
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Is this a proper description: The CDU/CSU did worse than expected; the FDP did better than expected; the SPD did better than expected; the greens did worse than expected?

Depends who did the expecting

It looks like the two main parties got a beating, and the voters are looking outside the mainstream politics (FDP=liberals and Linke=left wing).

Despite all the rethoric you'll hear, it's clear from the stats that both SPD and CDU/CSU have lost to FDP and Linke, with the Greens staying put.

	18-09-2005 23:46									#18
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Is this a proper description: The CDU/CSU did worse than expected; the FDP did better than expected; the SPD did better than expected; the greens did worse than expected?

Yep, except that AFAIK the Greens weren't really expected much better, they basically are on the same level as in 2002, with only minor losses. But the rest is correct, and the results were pretty surprising.

	18-09-2005 23:46									#19
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quote: originally posted by DanS Don't you have enough domestic issues on which to vote? I'm surprised that you're willing to forgive Schroeder's long list of failures for one largely irrelevant success.

If you'd have seen the Head-Head with Schröder and Merkl, you'd have noticed that it was almost only about domestic issues. Mainly fiscal and employment policies.

	18-09-2005 23:49									#20
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Yeah, Schröder tried a bit to play the "I'm a man of peace, while Merkel would follow the US into war"-card, but it didn't play much of a role in this election, I guess mainly because another war isn't at the table now.

	18-09-2005 23:51									#21
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That's what I expected and that's why I'm wondering why Iraq is a factor for siron.

quote: Yep, except that AFAIK the Greens weren't really expected much better, they basically are on the same level as in 2002, with only minor losses. But the rest is correct, and the results were pretty surprising.

The FDP did a whole lot better than expected, right? The FDP was being hammered in the last polls that I saw.

	18-09-2005 23:53									#22
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Yes, the FDP was better. But the CDU was expected much, much better, and this is really quite weak for the chances they had, if we look on polls from the last months.

	18-09-2005 23:56									#23
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To my mind, this is a slightly unfortunate outcome. The two main parties got beaten, but they likely will form the government. The SPD will be tempted to shift left to block its left flank, but will have to play nice in a CDU/CSU center-right government.

	18-09-2005 23:58									#24
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I guess you could have a Frankenstein gov't. CDU/CSU + FDP + Greens. That would be a strange beast.

	19-09-2005 00:05									#25
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Yeah, noone wanted it, but now they have to deal with it.

However, it is still unclear if a grand coalition is really that bad. Of course, everyone complains that it is bad for democracy, that there's no real opposition anymore etc. but otoh in many issues both big parties were already forced to work together before this election, since the SPD/Greens had the majority in the parliament, while the CDU ruled in the Bundesrat, the parliament of the federal states, which has much influence on many laws. Sometimes that led to deadlock, but in other cases noone could afford to simply block decisions without damaging its own position.

CDU/CSU + FDP + Greens would be theoretically possible but with all the "hostilities" esp. between FDP and Greens I'd say this is highly unlikely.

	19-09-2005 00:09									#26
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Well, I guess this means the end for Schroeder, right? Who picks the chancellor? Does the chancellor then ask the party with the highest number of votes to form a gov't?

	19-09-2005 00:10									#27
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This is discussed as well, but it's unlikely that the greens will follow. They will totally drown and will have to follow vote with parties they usually campaign against. I'd consider it political suicide. They had troubles promoting their agenda under Schröder, it'd be impossible to do under a government that is more to the right.

	19-09-2005 00:11									#28
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Well, I guess this means the end for Schroeder, right? Who picks the chancellor? Does the chancellor then ask the party with the highest number of votes to form a gov't?

The president says who's going to appoint a govt.

	19-09-2005 00:12									#29
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http://www.wahlrecht.de/

21:00 Uhr - Mehr Überhangmandate als 2002

(wz) Die bisher vorliegenden Ergebnisse lassen eine wesentlich größere Zahl von Überhangmandaten als bei der letzten Bundestagswahl erwarten. Diese werden voraussichtlich vor allem die SPD stärken. Es ist nicht einmal ausgeschlossen, daß die Sozialdemokraten auf diesem Wege trotz deutlich weniger Zweitstimmen als CDU und CSU zusammen die stärkte Fraktion im Bundestag stellen wird.


This would explain his behaviour in the "Elephantenrunde".

	19-09-2005 00:13									#30
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Yep, normally it is about the highest number. But with the results so close it is quite difficult now. IIRC last time the CDU thought they were winning while later in the evening it turned out that it was Schroeder again.

For now they do the usual game -- each side claims victory.