14-11-2001 22:15									#121
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About Echostar buying Hughes. As Ted pointed out, the Fed aint going to let it happen. So when the deal falls thru Gm will still need to sell it, so I see Murdoch swooping in and getting for a song; IIRC Echostar is already offering less than News Corp was.

Speaking of M&A, how long before Carly Florina loses her job, Now that the Hewletts have come out publically against the buyout of Compaq. I think she was tricked by her advisors who want her gone, why else would she engage in a merger plan which makes no sense.

	14-11-2001 22:26									#122
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I give Carly 60 days...

She should be jailed for blowing up Lucent.

Way to give female execs a bad image.


GM needs that Hughes money; I hope the deal goes through. They will lobby that cable is a competitor to sat dish so maybe they can get the DoJ to wink at them.

	14-11-2001 22:35									#123
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Actually, that's not such a bad argument. In about 35% of the cases, though, sat's the only game in town. It would probably be impossible to wink and nod considering this.

	14-11-2001 22:39									#124
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quote: Originally posted by Colon GP, I don’t know Ventana Medical Systems but I hope their products have nicer names.

VMSI ticker. Public company (OTC). They make automated equipment for tissue sample analysis for hospitals. They launched a similar product which has genomics/drug discovery application and is sold to pharma companies. Revenues were on a nice growing curve from 91 to 99. (10 to 70 mil) 2000 was flat. (70 mil.) and this year looks like 90 mil. They were profitable in late 90's but had a loss in 2000. This year looks like they will make a small profit.

It seems like their hospital business is OK although it had a hiccup. I wonder how good the drug discovery instruement is and how much stock boost they're getting from being in "genomics".

P/R is 4.5. P/B is 4.0 (but I think they outsource a lot of manufacturing)They have a direct sales force, which gives them a big SGA.

Company website: http://www.ventanamed.com/

Yahoo finance info: http://biz.yahoo.com/z/a/v/vmsi.html


Love to get some independant eyeballs looking at them. More interested in your evaluation of company itself than vagaries of stock price (although two are related...so any comments welcome.)

	14-11-2001 22:39									#125
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Pretty please??

I am long GM bonds on the cheap and looking to flip them out for something decent.


GP - I'll check VMSI tomorrow, I am at the house...

	14-11-2001 22:45									#126
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Schokoladenkopf,

Thanks for the comments regarding the product. I too was verrrryy surpised at how LITTLE money has been invested into the product. As far as I can tell, the product is pretty much done, it just has to go through the mandatory trials to get government approval. There's not so much inventing left to do but maybe some tweaking at best.

No doubt, I see this as the biggest selling pill since Prozac, something that will revolutionize the way people live (for good or bad). America, for example, is WAY overmedicated on antidepressants.

However, given the returns, I'd be pumping alot more than $8 million into it.

I will have more interesting comments in the new year regarding Hughes, GM, and Echostar.

Let me just say right now, DirecTV leader Roxanne Austin is freakkinnn SMOKIN. That is one hot corporate leader.

Also, yes, that is exactly how they are playing the argument against the feds. It's satellite vs. cable. But like DanS said, in many rural areas, satellite is THE only way to go. The arguments that I heard to smooth that out was that satellite rates would be fixed in areas with only choice of multichannel tv. However, this wouldn't address the idea of having choice or differentiation between different products.

Speaking of Carly, that's hilarious and ironic, very very intriguing. Especially since I just watched the movie "Disclosure" last night. I suggest everyone in this thread watch it or rewatch it. Very good movie and also highly relevant to her situation.

	14-11-2001 22:54									#127
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One other piece of news to mention was that Bush ordered the strategic oil reserve filled to capacity.

Hmmmm...possible benefits:

1) Bigger buffer for when the war on terroism escalates
2) Oil prices are very cheap right now, best to buy the capacity when it's cheap

	14-11-2001 22:57									#128
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Sten Stenish,

How come GM can't make money by actually selling products instead of resorting to all thest stupid corporate leverage games?

I read an interesting article on how GM pretty much destroyed the Hughes Electronics empire that Howard Hughes had built. Most of the innovative culture that Hughes encouraged and that his company thrived on disappeared over the years of mismanagement by the GM guys.

	14-11-2001 23:20									#129
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Sten, I DanSed (edited) in some info on Ventana.

	14-11-2001 23:25									#130
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Sten Stenish, How come GM can't make money by actually selling products instead of resorting to all thest stupid corporate leverage games.

Striker, you have to concentrate; now batting for Pedro Bourbon...


Cause they are a bank!! Banks can't make cars or run tech companies, silly!

At least they have finally realized that the best way to make money is to sell products at breakeven and loan out the money at a profit.

	14-11-2001 23:50									#131
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GP - just looked through today's 10-Q and I didn't see anything that was too bad; I'd say it was worth taking a closer look. Didn't look at the stock valuation metrics yet.

The financials are a little muddy with the impact of their building project. I hate construction and moving for it's distraction, but should mean that the next 12 mos are more productive than the past 12 have been. Burn rate ex-construction looks contained and maybe they will even be CFOps positive next Q. Given their sales run rate, the balance sheet looks all right size wise...

	15-11-2001 00:02									#132
	Inflate your Upload Space

quote: At least they have finally realized that the best way to make money is to sell products at breakeven and loan out the money at a profit.

Ahhhhhhh! That's how GE does it too, huh?

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...


Man now I feel like a little kid and Dad just explained the birds and the bees to me...

	15-11-2001 00:03									#133
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Some things just don't make any sense. OPEC basically says "the cartel has no power" by refusing to cut production unless Russia does. See the FT article. Not so smart.

Striker: the oil reserves is silly. It won't do much harm, though. I think we're talking about $5 billion overall. As I've said before, it would be better to find some way to help Russia develop it's oil supplies. This would help diversify the supply from the ME.

I'm coming to the conclusion that we should also put a big push on for alternative energies. We spend so much frickin' $ trying to defend the world's oil stocks. It would be better to move the energy mix away from oil. Yeah, I know. Confessions of an oil guy. But I'm even seeing wind turbines in Pennsylvania any more. When do I fill up my fuel cell tank with hydrogen?

	15-11-2001 00:08									#134
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quote: I'm coming to the conclusion that we should also put a big push on for alternative energies. We spend so much frickin' $ trying to defend the world's oil stocks. It would be better to move the energy mix away from oil. Yeah, I know. Confessions of an oil guy. But I'm even seeing wind turbines in Pennsylvania any more. When do I fill up my fuel cell tank with hydrogen?

Brother, I am right there with you. There was a recent survey that came out that said most Americans believed alternative energy sources should be heavily pushed.

The funny thing is that most of the imported US oil comes from Mexico and Venezuala! It's our allies that need most of the ME oil!

Pushing alternative energy would also put a stop to the huge inflows of cash that go to places like Saudi Arabia where nutty fools like Bin Laden are farmed.

	15-11-2001 00:10									#135
	Tired of ads?

GP, I’m going to check their finances but regarding P/B I’d like to say that I think that whether manufacturing is outsourced or not is irrelevant. The point about P/B is that ratio lower than 1 makes it interesting to a raider to purchase the company, sell the assets and pocket the margin. Outsourcing contracts are useless to him. (there are less aggressive motives as well, such as collateral and the opportunity to obtain certain assets more cheaply than through direct investment)

Derek, I’m not sure whether that Melastuff could be as significant as Prozac, you have to consider the price, ease of use and the fact there’s a good alternative, namely the sun. (going to Tahiti to lie on the beach is more than just getting a tan)
And don’t forget being tanned could go out of fashion either and it somewhat is already. (Gates doesn’t have a tan but he has $40bn) If Melathingy becomes popular I can imagine it could accelerate that trend because being tanned was a status symbol (you went to Tahiti to lie on the beach) and if everyone can afford a tan, well...

Speaking of tans, does Roxanne Austin have one? I'd like to see a picture to check whether she's a potential customer. (market research can never be thorough enough )

	15-11-2001 00:18									#136
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Colon,

Well the thing that differentiates this pill from the sun is that:

1) The sun will damage your skin and can in many cases can lead to skin cancer after high exposure. On a personal note, I am scared that I will get skin cancer as I have very pale skin and as a teenager and child was outdoors all the time. My shoulders experienced second degree burns on them 3 times. Now they are freckled over.

2) The pill not only tans the skin but also PROTECTS it from the sun by boosting melanin production

Not only that, for those in climates where the sun doesn't shine all the time, the pill would be very convenient.

Personally, I'm sold on it.

Roxanne doesn't have a tan, since she's indoors all day at the office. But she looks better without it...

	15-11-2001 00:24									#137
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This post was so damn good I had to post it twice.

USA!!!

	15-11-2001 00:26									#138
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quote: Originally posted by Sten Sture GP - just looked through today's 10-Q and I didn't see anything that was too bad; I'd say it was worth taking a closer look. Didn't look at the stock valuation metrics yet. The financials are a little muddy with the impact of their building project. I hate construction and moving for it's distraction, but should mean that the next 12 mos are more productive than the past 12 have been. Burn rate ex-construction looks contained and maybe they will even be CFOps positive next Q. Given their sales run rate, the balance sheet looks all right size wise...

Thanks, stud!!

	15-11-2001 00:30									#139
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quote: Originally posted by Colon GP, I’m going to check their finances but regarding P/B I’d like to say that I think that whether manufacturing is outsourced or not is irrelevant. The point about P/B is that ratio lower than 1 makes it interesting to a raider to purchase the company, sell the assets and pocket the margin. Outsourcing contracts are useless to him. (there are less aggressive motives as well, such as collateral and the opportunity to obtain certain assets more cheaply than through direct investment)

Colon, you would rarely think of this type of company for an asset sale. I was just explaining the low asset value by saying their production might be outsourced. Sten said he thinks the balance sheet makes sense.

	15-11-2001 02:20									#140
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker My shoulders experienced second degree burns on them 3 times.

I didn't know you were into NASCAR...

	15-11-2001 13:16									#141
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NASplanes, rather.

So people, did anyone ride this huge bear market rally ?

And does anyone believe that running the US economy like Amazon.com is a good idea ?

	15-11-2001 18:24									#142
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NASDAQ up 35% since September 11th.

DOW up 20%

Bin Laden's attempt to destroy the US financial markets has FAILED.

No matter, he will die soon.

	15-11-2001 19:14									#143
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"Bin Laden's attempt to destroy the US financial markets has FAILED."

Of course it has.

But Allahn Greenspan succeeds.

	15-11-2001 19:29									#144
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Interesting stat I just heard:

Amount of money in US savings accounts: 2.2 Trillion
Amount of money in US money market accounts: 2.1 Trillion

	18-11-2001 18:47									#145
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Tettster, regarding Meladope, I think we can agree that the impact is unpredictable, but a lot will depend on the price IMHO, the lower the larger the chance it will be used for ‘leisure reason’ rather than just pure medical reasons. So if it passes the trials, manufacturing costs would be a very important factor.

And why are those money stats interesting?

Anybody been watching Enron lately? Any guesses about the impact? (Sten? )

Another question, I noticed at pchang’s site that AOLTW’s liquidity ratios are pretty weak. Could that pose any problems? (Sten? )

Besides, I’ve never could make head or tail out of AOL’s accounts, is that just me or do others share that opinion? (Sten? )

	18-11-2001 22:12									#146
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there was a good WSJ article about Enron.

	19-11-2001 15:18									#147
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I'd guess Sten might be a bit busy. Last week was total madness in the bond market.

Could get very interesting now. I think that the US bubble has finally entered the terminal stage. Unless the Fed discovers another bubble to foster, we could have just seen the start of the endgame in last week's turmoil.

	19-11-2001 15:37									#148
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Herr Rechtsberater,

So when does the recession end and growth start again?

Or does Wurstland economics ban the use of upsides?

	19-11-2001 16:36									#149
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Under the technical definition, "this" recession could end in Q1 or Q2 2002. The next one is just around the corner, though, when the reliquification and the housing bubble seriously run out of steam.

	19-11-2001 17:48									#150
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Hmmm...that's an interesting take...I would have thought the housing bubble would have been on the tail end of this one...

So:

1) How long do you expect the "lull" between the two recessions to be?

2) How long is the next recession supposed to last?


My prediction originally was that we'd be in a slowdown starting January 2000 and lasting until January 2003.

Now I say April 2000 through April 2003.