05-03-2002 03:03									#31
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quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man homework, HAHAHA. anywho, the fact is, the talioban troops took out the helicopters. they also have defensive terrain. it is so easy for them to post a few snipers somewhere, and take out about 10-20 troops before they even find the sniper. i dont think YOU have anysense of whats going on, and how hard it is to fight a gurrila campaighn.... i dont actually know of a gurrila situation where the gurrila's lost.

Oh forget the damn homework for now.

Umm, work a little on your spelling.

I don't think Al Qaeda or the Taliban have enough ammo to take out that many troops.

I don't think you have any sense on what is really going on because you seem to be ignorant on what equipiment the Taliban and Al Qaeda really have.

I know of several scenarios where guerrillas have lost in a guerrilla situation... well Colombia very soon... Argentina (they took out 5,000 Rebels in the 70s/80s along with 40,000 civilians). So you can see the guerrilla's most likely lose. Angola is another example where the net is tightening on the UNITA rebels.

So do a little more studying before making assertions.

	05-03-2002 03:18									#32
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well, its not hard for them to get weapons. theres a little place called pakistan, i beleive it is in a northern province were there is no law, basically, and guns are on sale aevery where. so, its not hard for them to get what they havnt got.

and i am not only speaking of the taliban, in the event of a civil war, then there is a whole new ball games.

5,000 rebels isnt many.....


and spelling, well, i have no excuse.

	05-03-2002 03:24									#33
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Unlikely--I don't no about where you are (where are you, again?) but here in the NYC area people are still aware of the empty space that used to be the towers.

I'm from Mississippi.

I tend to agree with this statement. This latest change in tactics seems to be a despperate Hail Mary pass on the part of the Democrats. That's what suprised me about Lott's over the top reaction to it. If he had played the situation a lot more coolly, Senator Daschle's gambit might have blown as soon as he delivered it.

	05-03-2002 03:24									#34
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quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man well, its not hard for them to get weapons. theres a little place called pakistan, i beleive it is in a northern province were there is no law, basically, and guns are on sale aevery where. so, its not hard for them to get what they havnt got. and i am not only speaking of the taliban, in the event of a civil war, then there is a whole new ball games. 5,000 rebels isnt many..... and spelling, well, i have no excuse.

If there is no law in this region you speak of why are there several divisons of Pakistani Troops there guarding? It is very hard for them to get because you are not studying the maps. They are spread out in a small area encircled by American/Friendly Afghan Forces.

	05-03-2002 03:31									#35
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well, the pakistani govt. is just as corrupt and evil imo anyway. also, lets not forget, there are many ways of smuggling weapons to these caves. no one knows where they open out, there could easily be cave tunnel from east afghanistan to south that we dont know of.

	05-03-2002 03:34									#36
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Ecthelion, I hope that this wasn't what you had in mind when you started this thread.

	05-03-2002 03:36									#37
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well, he figered without the lesbian man woman element



EDIT: put fingered and not figured :|

	05-03-2002 03:37									#38
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I do not believe the Afghanistan situation will be as easy as the US public is being led to believe for morale purposes.

The 'cave-buster' will turn out to be the next Patriot missile.

However, I do not think the conflict will become like Viet Nam. There is no equivalent to North Vietnam or the USSR in this conflict.

There are no enemy factories, SAM sites, or tanks, or planes. This is problem as well as a positive. There is no Western public support of the enemy. There will be no 'Tet offensive'.

But a mini-viet nam in the sense of dragging on and on and on? Engagements at the squad level over a decade? Yes, quite possibly.
But I think the Americans will 'tough it out'.

Because unlike Viet Nam there is a clear moral superiority, and some blood to avenge. Even when they finally realize that all the bunker-busters and 40 000 ft bombings won't do it, Americans will still be willing to keep a few companies out there, getting dirty, knowing that it WON'T be over next year, or the year after, but still sitting out there, grinding down the enemy, proving their resolve. And then one day the enemy will be too old, to weak, and too shell-shocked to care anymore, and things will just slowly grind down.

	05-03-2002 03:42									#39
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Combat casualties are (AFAIK) still in the single digits. 4 orders of magnitude to go.

	05-03-2002 03:46									#40
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quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man well, he figered without the lesbian man woman element

This was such an interesting thread before idiots got a hold of it. Points finger at Andy.

Seeker: But a mini-viet nam in the sense of dragging on and on and on? Engagements at the squad level over a decade?

If it must turn into another historical guerrilla war, I foresee a mini repeat of the US experience in the Philippines. IIRC, the US won that one.

	05-03-2002 03:54									#41
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dobnle digits. including 'accidents' that happend when they first started, i believe the US has had about 20deaths nows. not many, but alot considering that only about (at most) 2000 troops (of mixed nationality) are there, i could be rong about this number though.

and as i said, there is a highly likly chance of an all out civil war. thats when the real problems will start.

	05-03-2002 05:44									#42
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Maybe after World War II lasted for four months, Great Britain and the United States should have screamed, "It's taking too long!" and just have called it quits.

	05-03-2002 06:06									#43
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quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man well, the pakistani govt. is just as corrupt and evil imo anyway. also, lets not forget, there are many ways of smuggling weapons to these caves. no one knows where they open out, there could easily be cave tunnel from east afghanistan to south that we dont know of.

There could be an asteroid headed for earth that we don't know of... but take a look at it this way we don't know of it. And yes the Pakistani govt is corrupt... and that is why it is accepting aide and upgrades on the F-16s it has. And for that it will help the US.

Read up on the news... please.

	05-03-2002 06:22									#44
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So much ignorance, so little time...

Afghanistan is not on the brink of civil war, it has been in a civil war for over 20 years. Whether the civil war will end soon is an open question. Certainly the Taliban remnants and al Quaida scum have to be eliminated. After that the question of whether the interim government is capable of ruling the country will come into sharper focus.

As has been pointed out, the remaining al Quaida / hard core Taliban are very limited in numbers and lack the support of even a minor power to keep them supplied and give them political legitimacy. Add to that the fact these forces also lack a base area which can even feed them. They are reduced to bribing and begging in very barren, remote and poor areas. Their only advantage is their altitude which limits the effectiveness of U.S. helicopters, while the advantages they cede to the U.S. are numerous. They are outnumbered, outsupplied, and their political base is a segment of a population which does not actually have political / military control of any territory.

The fact that they are concentrated in this current battle shows just how desperate they really are. A real guerilla force with political support would be dispersed in order to frustrate U.S. firepower. Time would be on their side. The fact that these guys are concentrated on the defense shows that they don't have much territory (or their supplies are limited to a certain area) and it also shows that they don't have the initiative. This is hardly a prescription for success. Hopefully we can draw the noose tight and finish most of the men in this pocket.

	05-03-2002 06:28									#45
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I'd say the most accurate historical parable if this goes badly would be the American actions against Pancho Villa in the early 20th Century. Vietnam was, as I pointed out, a much bigger war, in terms of manpower, and much more standard politically.

	05-03-2002 06:38									#46
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Andy Man, you don't need to exterminate the populace to end terrorism/insurgency. For starters, at the most basic, nasty, and visceral level, Hafez Assad defeated his Islamic fundamentalist opponents by slaughtering less than one out of two hundred of his citizens, and the losses were replaced within the year. Saddam Hussein suppressed the Shi'ite rebellion in the south of his country without depopulating the country. To give some more humane examples, the British defeated Malayan rebels in the 1950s, and IIRC had actually defeated the Mao Mao militarily when they granted independence to Kenya. UNITA may well be on the way out in Angola, and the FIS isn't doing to well in Algeria either. I don't see continued Interahamwe raids in Rwanda-Burundi, nor have I heard much of Aum Shinriko, the Japanese Red Army, or Bader-Meinhoff lately.

What people like to forget about Vietnam is the role of the NVA in the matter.

	05-03-2002 11:42									#47
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo How about overthrowing Manuel Noriega?

Don't get me started on this.

	05-03-2002 11:50									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Natan Andy Man, you don't need to exterminate the populace to end terrorism/insurgency.

That clearly has to depend on how well the rebels/revolutionaries are supported by the local populace.

Saddam is having a problem with the Kurds, for example, and the BTA is still bothering Spain in a low-level sort of way. Then there is the Palestinian situation.

	05-03-2002 18:21									#49
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I think the peaceful people of Afghanistan will repell the agressors once again. This time they will use Russian weapons against Americans (in a bizzare twist to the previous war against foreign invaders). Too bad that war criminals in the US army will never be held responsible for the crimes committed against Afghan civilians since October (and especially in the last month or so).

	05-03-2002 18:23									#50
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quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man 5 vietnemise died for every US troop in vietnam, 10 Russians for every Nazi in WW2. who won?

jesus, by your account, there should be no single russian alive

	05-03-2002 18:28									#51
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quote: Originally posted by LaRusso I think the peaceful people of Afghanistan will repell the agressors once again. This time they will use Russian weapons against Americans (in a bizzare twist to the previous war against foreign invaders). Too bad that war criminals in the US army will never be held responsible for the crimes committed against Afghan civilians since October (and especially in the last month or so).

Take your trolls elsewhere... the US and civilized world has liberated Afghanistan. We should not be expecting them to support our views but we should always hope for them to support their own freedom.

	05-03-2002 18:32									#52
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Take your trolls elsewhere... the US and civilized world has liberated Afghanistan. We should not be expecting them to support our views but we should always hope for them to support their own freedom.

well you certainly are repeating the pentagon version
tell that to the people killed and strangled two weeks ago (17 of them) and to those beaten severly in kandahar cages

	05-03-2002 18:34									#53
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quote: Originally posted by LaRusso well you certainly are repeating the pentagon version tell that to the people killed and strangled two weeks ago (17 of them) and to those beaten severly in kandahar cages

Who told you that? The Guardian? A big pack of lies. You don't have any idea what you are saying by supporting the taliban.

	05-03-2002 18:45									#54
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quote: Originally posted by LaRusso jesus, by your account, there should be no single russian alive

Well its true. 15 million Russian Casaulties in WW2. Germans never had then 4 million men on the east front. (1942)

	05-03-2002 18:48									#55
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quote: Originally posted by LaRusso I think the peaceful people of Afghanistan will repell ...

	05-03-2002 20:51									#56
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quote: Originally posted by Ecthelion I'm not crying, I'm just saying those wh osaid the war would last 2 weeks were wrong. Could Mr Spink explain me how this is anti-American in any way?

you are absolutely correct that those who said the war would last 2 weeks are wrong. Of course Donald Rumsfield and other Pentagon spokesmen have spent the last several months saying over and over again that the war would not be short or easy. My general sense here in the US is that most ordinary people have resolve and determination - we are willing to take casualties, to do what it takes. Maybe im wrong since i live in northern virginia, and saw and smelled the Pentagon on fire in the week after Sept 11. Or perhaps because i live only a short drive from battlefields where Americans sacirificed their lives in the tens of thousands.

Your thread says "who says this wont be another VIet Nam?" Viet Nam took 7 years, 50,000 american lives, and ended with the NVA taking Saigon.

There are intermediate results between that, and a two week walk-over.

There is also an intermediate between "lets bomb and get out" and the commitment to occupation the Soviets did.
The Soviets were committed to complete control for a specific (and unpopular) govt. We are committed only to keeping the Taliban out of power, and to giving the afghan people the fair chance they deserve for peace and stability. At this point the Karzai govt seems the best chance, and seems to be popular with the afghan people, even as they have trouble with the warlords. IF karzai loses his popularity, and support for him results in the US being linked to a hated regime, we can and will abandon him. While this may be frustrating in our war against Al-qaeeda and its friends, it is necessary to avoid getting stuck in the Soviet position.

Right now the relevant metrics are not from VIet Nam, but from the Soviet experience. These can be expressed in terms of troop commitment, international situation, local opposition, and supply situation.


1. Soviets fairly early sent in large force, over 100,000 to secure afgan cities and roads. US has only 5,000, including troops aggressively going after al-qaeeda.

2. SOviets were condemned, including breaking up of what had been promising ties to muslim world. US has support of world, including not only our traditional allies, but of Russia and China. Even has tacit support of most muslim states, and acquiesence of muslim street.

3. SOviets faced guerilla war all over the country - virtually the entire Afghan nation in arms. We face primarily foreign (non-Afgan) fighters, who have some local support, but only in 3 or 4 pashtun provinces. AL qaeeda confined to mountain positions.
While other regions present their own security challenges, there is no support for al qaeeda in non-Pashtun half of the country, and little in other pashtun areas.

4. Anti-soviet forces received massive support across iran and pakistan borders, including large numbers of stinger missiles. al qaeeda seems to be mainly using their dwindling stocks of weapons. Some weapons probably are being smuggled from pakistan, but not in large numbers, and probably not including stingers.

These are all related - soviets found themselves in vicious cycle - more troops - more opposition - more troops, etc
US has so far kept its footprint in the country light, which is one key reason there has been no national rebellion against US and US friends. There will be temptations along the road, but we have the Soviet example as a warning.

LOTM

	05-03-2002 21:03									#57
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quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man 5 vietnemise died for every US troop in vietnam, 10 Russians for every Nazi in WW2. who won?

good point. Body counts alone are meaningless. However in Viet nam there was a virtually endless source of new recruits for the NVA, if not for the VC - the growing North vietnamese population was subject to conscription.

At this point Al-qaeeda seems to be mainly die-hard foreign fighters. Few afghan taliban are still fighting, and most Pakistanis have gone home. The fight is largely chechens, uzbeks, and arabs. rebuilding al -qaeeda's army will be very difficult. A. Under current political conditions in muslim world, recruitment should be more difficult than before. B. Those who are recruited will have to be smuggled into Afghanistan - how? by sea to Karachi, then over the mountains from Pakistan? with coalition forces watching the sea lanes? With the Paki army in the mountains, and coalition airborne surveillance? (no hidden ho chi min trail here) And of course they have no place to train, with their camps destroyed.

LOTM

	05-03-2002 21:07									#58
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quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man Bassically saying, Afghans are dying instead of US troops.... , there is an unknown amount of guys hiding in the mountais,

Unknown doesnt mean infinite. estimates range from 500 to 5000. Even if its 5000, they are beatable, with patience and resolution.

LOTM

	05-03-2002 21:09									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Who told you that? The Guardian? A big pack of lies. You don't have any idea what you are saying by supporting the taliban.

1) IHT, too lazy to check, it was a week or something ago
2) why is it that saying americans might be commiting attrocities amounts to supporting taliban?



faded glory:
russians had about 11 million military casualties and about 15 million civilians
germany lost total of 9 million, i am not sure about military portion.
even if we take your estimation of 15 million lost by the russians, it would take 1,5 million german military losses to cover that. they lost that just in 3 biggest battles (stalingrad, kursk, bagration -44)

	05-03-2002 21:10									#60
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc