22-09-2002 21:01									#1
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First predictions based on ARD (German television) exit polls:

Stoiber (Christian Democrats) beats Schröder (Social Democrats) by 2%.
PDS (neo-Communists) are not going to make the Parliament.

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	22-09-2002 21:14									#2
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WOO!

Go Stoiber .

	22-09-2002 21:20									#3
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Gregor Geysi!

	22-09-2002 21:27									#4
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Oops- wait- have to edit my post. Looks like the news might be far more grim:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2274521.stm

"SPD: 37.8%
CDU: 38.1%
Greens: 9.1%
FDP: 7.4%
PDS: 4%
Source: ZDF television "

SPD and Green together beat Greens/SPD, so looks Schroeder will prevail.

	22-09-2002 21:41									#5
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ARD 18.40 PM:


SPD 37.1% 238 seats
CDU 39.6% 255
Grünen 9.2% 59
FDP 7.2% 46
PDS 4.1% 2


SPD+Grünen: 297 seats, just under a majority (301)
CDU+FDP : 301 seats

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	22-09-2002 22:05									#6
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So basically no-one knows anything at this stage.

	22-09-2002 22:14									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Buck Birdseed So basically no-one knows anything at this stage.

Yeah, and it will probably take some hours before we know definately who the winner is...

	22-09-2002 22:28									#8
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If CDU wins, it'll probably all be blamed on few old people in Baden meaning to vote for SPD but accidentally voting for Die Republikaner instead.

	22-09-2002 23:42									#9
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Odd... Both sides claim victory. Aren't there concession speeches and congratulatory phone calls from the losers, before any victory is celebrated? Or is that just an American ritual?

	22-09-2002 23:45									#10
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Al Gore just demanded a full recount, claiming Stoiber's brother fixed the whole thing.



No really this is quite exciting. Will the sensible candidate win or will it be a Loony Party Sweep.

	22-09-2002 23:51									#11
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Even if Schroeder keeps a ruling coalition, this seems like an excellent showing for the CDU. Also, the Greens coming in at 9% is very strong.

	23-09-2002 00:26									#12
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From BBC I get these stats:

SPD/Greens: 304
CDU-CSU/FDP: 297
Source: ZDF TV

SPD/Greens: 300
CDU-CSU/FDP: 298
Source: ARD TV

Mabye Olden's stats are more up to date, but it looks like Schroeder has won either way.

	23-09-2002 00:41									#13
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Like Hitler, Schroeder know well how to stir up the rabble against a foreign threat.

	23-09-2002 00:42									#14
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ARD 09:27 PM

CDU/CSU 38,8 %
SPD 38,1 %
Greens 8,6 %
FDP 7,4 %
PDS 4,02 %

SO we´ve got
46,7% for the Coalition between the SPD and The Greens
and
46,2 % for a Coalition between CDU and FDP

	23-09-2002 00:43									#15
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When is the final count due?

	23-09-2002 00:58									#16
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The germans should be better at counting this one than us.

	23-09-2002 01:01									#17
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc When is the final count due?

Tomorrow I think.

However, those Percentages which are currently published don´t reflect the real Distribution of seats in the Bundestag.

The seats are distributed according to the percentage of Votes for the Parties, to Direct mandates and to surplus mandates.
Our election system is rather complex

For example PDS has only 4 % in the percentages published, so they shouldn´t get a seat in the Bundestag (only Parties with more than 5% get a seat), but they have 2 Direct mandates, so they get 2 seats in the Bundestag.

	23-09-2002 01:22									#18
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Estimated distribution of seats in the Bundestag inclusive surplus mandates (according to ARD, 21:45):

Coalition of SPD and Greens: 305 seats
Coalition of CDU and FDP: 298
PDS: 2 Seats

	23-09-2002 01:37									#19
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Like Hitler, Schroeder know well how to stir up the rabble against a foreign threat.

After the Hitler remark flap, from what I saw it looked a bit like Stoiber was trying to work the "I'll be a bigger lackey of Bush and the US" angle into the election.

It should be interesting to see what happens next.

	23-09-2002 01:50									#20
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For some reason, I'm guessing this wouldn't play in Peioria. But seeing the Chancellor in Lederhosen would be priceless.

Attachment: mdf111500.jpg
This has been downloaded 78 time(s).

	23-09-2002 04:18									#21
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Stobier is the one I am hoping that will get elected. One more socialist kicked out won't hurt. Schroeder is a mumbling idiot especially with his foreign policy... and his economic policies suck.

Either way if Schroeder wins his capacity to run his dumb policies will be severely crippled.

Anyways... those Germans certainly know how to drink... Hand that to them.

	23-09-2002 04:47									#22
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who won?

	23-09-2002 04:50									#23
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So is Shcoreder really wearing a wig?

	23-09-2002 05:24									#24
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Probably Old Government = New Government

Latest Results for the seats in the German Bundestag are:
SPD: 255 seats
CSU/CDU: 248 seats
Greens: 55 seats
FDP: 47 seats
PDS: 2 seats

So we´ve got a Majority of the seats for a coalition of SPD and Greens

But 7 out of 12 Ministers didn´t get reelected into the Bundestag, so the Coalition will have to appoint a lot of new Ministers.

I assume, Stoiber was far too unpopular to get elected.

	23-09-2002 05:32									#25
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Official word is that Schroeder has won.

Phew.

	23-09-2002 05:37									#26
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****. How do you say that in German?

This is horrible... I was hoping that the euroconservatives could take over... it was needed to turn the German economy around. Now you Germans got Schroeder and his unrealistic promises.

Well the Euro Conservatives still won big in Germany. This is increasing the chances that next time the CSU/CDU will take over.

	23-09-2002 08:01									#27
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Damn. I can't believe that Schroeder actually pulled it off. Just goes to show that Euros can be distracted from the real issues just as easily as Americans... (sigh)

	23-09-2002 08:35									#28
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Hmmm...I think on the whole, this is good...I definitely prefer Schroeder's foreign policies, especially regarding recent events, but as to domestic policies, I probably prefer Stoiber to a certain extent.

But right now, having someone in office in a powerful and important country who opposes US action in the Middle East is important, I think.

	23-09-2002 08:38									#29
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Never thought you'd be one to cheer on a socialist gaining power, Dave.

	23-09-2002 08:40									#30
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Well, Stoiber, from a US point of view, isn't that much further to the right domestically than Schroeder, as near as I can tell.

And frankly, I'd probably prefer a Socialist to an ultra-conservative (not that Stoiber is one, of course).