20-11-2002 21:04									#1
	New economics thread Support Apolyton

Since the last one has reached 500, this is the new thread for discussion of all things to do with practical economics.

Brains in gear at all times please.

	20-11-2002 21:05									#2
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You should have named it "new economy" thread.

	20-11-2002 21:09									#3
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Actually, I like "GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part III" better

And here is a link to the old thread.

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...989#post1463989

	20-11-2002 21:10									#4
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Dr Spike, insert a link to the old thread please, makes it easier to look something up there.

[edit] never mind about the link, but the title should be part 12, you're denying a long history here.

	20-11-2002 21:11									#5
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Part III ? Isn't it part 12 ?

	20-11-2002 21:14									#6
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Hehe, ok, but although these threads may have started out discussing financial stuff a large percentage of the discussion is on purely economic issues. The title doesn't seem to reflect that. But then, tradition is a powerful force I guess.

	20-11-2002 21:14									#7
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quote: Don't be silly. The point is that we have tried lots of things, and what we do now works better than all those things.

So let's try new stuff.

quote: I hope I have succeeded in convincing you all of the worth of imperfect tools like output gaps and NAIRU, and I hope there is none among you that seriously believes in ditching discretionary policy.

You've convinced me that your preaching skills are top-notch, but I'd like to see some arguments.

	20-11-2002 21:14									#8
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Part III ? Isn't it part 12 ?

opps... time to change it again

	20-11-2002 21:15									#9
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quote: Originally posted by DrSpike Hehe, ok, but although these threads may have started out discussing financial stuff a large percentage of the discussion is on purely economic issues. The title doesn't seem to reflect that. But then, tradition is a powerful force I guess.

PART 12, PART 12, PART 12, you infidel!

[edit] never mind.

	20-11-2002 21:19									#10
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Dan, about the Eurozone's NAIRU, I'm quoting the economist here:

quote: Michael Dicks, at Lehman Brothers, estimates that the euro area's structural rate of unemployment (ie, the lowest jobless rate consistent with stable inflation) has fallen to 8% of the labour force, from 10% five years ago.

2% in 5 years?

	20-11-2002 21:20									#11
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"Hehe, ok, but although these threads may have started out discussing financial stuff a large percentage of the discussion is on purely economic issues...."

Was a mix from the beginning.

Is Granddaddy still in the archive ?

	20-11-2002 21:55									#12
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"2% in 5 years?"

The question mark implies that somehow I know enough to have an opinion about NAIRU.

Nothing could be farther from the truth.

"Is Granddaddy still in the archive ?"

We skipped over a lot of numbers. Just call it "thread inflation".

Granddady might be in the archive. Off Topic is pruned regularly, though, so it probably isn't.

	20-11-2002 23:10									#13
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quote: Originally posted by DanS The question mark implies that somehow I know enough to have an opinion about NAIRU. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Ok then, in layman's terms: I'm the one who's right, Spike is the one who's wrong. Gottit?

quote: We skipped over a lot of numbers. Just call it "thread inflation". Granddady might be in the archive. Off Topic is pruned regularly, though, so it probably isn't.

The original thread wasn't archived AFAIK.

	20-11-2002 23:32									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Colon Ok then, in layman's terms: I'm the one who's right, Spike is the one who's wrong. Gottit?

Unfortunately Colon's grasp of basic economic concepts is such that he would struggle in a remedial undergraduate class.

	21-11-2002 00:15									#15
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Oof.

	21-11-2002 00:20									#16
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quote: Think so? The history of economic forecasts and policies based on that is pretty bad. How often hasn't it been that a CB kept increasing the rate while the economy was already entering a downturn? Or that govt passed tax cuts that only had their effect when the economy was already blossoming again?

Reply hot shot and prove you're capable of debating beyond parroting the handbooks and calling anyone who disagrees with you an inferior being.

	21-11-2002 00:23									#17
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And another thing, if you such an intellectual giant, then how does it come that you can't grasp a simple concept as "irony"?

	21-11-2002 00:47									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Colon And another thing, if you such an intellectual giant, then how does it come that you can't grasp a simple concept as "irony"?

Hehe I know you were just baiting me.......so I responded in kind, as Dan saw.

I have to say in all seriousness I really do do my best in trying to answer any questions that are asked of me, and to answer them without resorting to technical models, which is very hard at times. I do not know why you imply that this is not the case, since I have spent much time doing what I can to help people understand various concepts, and I have to say it is my belief that for the most part I have succeeded in this.

You are, of course, free to disagree with this, just as you are free to disagree with anything you choose. I have never called you or anyone else an inferior being for disagreeing with me..........though I admit freely your seeming belief that a professional economist possesses no more insight than an intelligent but ultimately unskilled layperson is frustrating at times.

No matter, I shall, as I always have, respond to your question above.

	21-11-2002 00:57									#19
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quote: Originally posted by DrSpike Hehe I know you were just baiting me.......so I responded in kind, as Dan saw.

Bullshit.

Insulting someone is one thing, but not having the guts to admit it just makes you look pathetic.

And quit the irrelevant blathering, you're just clogging up bandwidth.

	21-11-2002 01:03									#20
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This is the first time I've ever clicked on an econo-thread, so help the newbie. Are fights compulsory?

	21-11-2002 01:04									#21
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BTW, Dan, have you received my mail re Japan and another mail I sent a couple of hours ago re car manufacturing?

	21-11-2002 01:04									#22
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Honestly, I thought it was all in good fun. But my brain has trouble discerning, when we get to ^3.

Colon: Re the financing, I got that one. But the Japan one I still don't have in my possession.

	21-11-2002 01:08									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Colon Bullshit. Insulting someone is one thing, but not having the guts to admit it just makes you look pathetic. And quit the irrelevant blathering, you're just clogging up bandwidth.

Well I was in the middle of a response to your query on forecasts, but I have seemingly lost my appetite for debate in this case. I fail to see how your gibe was ironic and mine insulting......but never mind, I shant lose any sleep.

I remain open to discussion with those who wish it......those who don't can carry on repeating their half-truths and misconceptions in an authoritative manner without ever learning how things really are.

	21-11-2002 01:12									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Lazarus and the Gimp This is the first time I've ever clicked on an econo-thread, so help the newbie. Are fights compulsory?

Hehe no........just an interest in economic issues and the ability to form cogent analyses of said issues. Where do your interests lie?

	21-11-2002 01:45									#26
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Colon? Is that you?

	21-11-2002 01:50									#27
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quote: Originally posted by DrSpike Hehe no........just an interest in economic issues and the ability to form cogent analyses of said issues. Where do your interests lie?

In beer and Japanese porn, mainly.

	21-11-2002 01:54									#28
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Well Japanese porn is like the Japanese deflationary slump - hard to understand, a little frightening, but ultimately fun to 'analyse'.

	21-11-2002 05:58									#30
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A bit of good news on the US econ front from my local skirmish...

Corporate bonds have been having a record horrible year, even as govy bonds have been the place to be, until about now.

Corps, especially beaten up varietals, have started to rally rally rally, and managers are finally starting to dump treasuries. Two triggers were the HSBC/Household deal and Moody's affirming Ford's ratings. So there is finally a bid for Corps and the narrowing yield spread is bringing companies to the market, allowing them to refinance/raise debt. Improved cap ex budgets should follow and further the econo recovery. Q4 GDP should beat estimates by 100bp or so, even with the deflator accelerating.



Colon! good to see you around again, you rogue. (though I must have missed something between you and DrSpike... heres hoping it blows over.)