22-11-2002 21:02									#61
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Hello Smartpants!

	22-11-2002 21:08									#62
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Once you start talking about GSEs...

So why the change? Just felt like something new?

	22-11-2002 21:15									#63
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Because Roland got banned. Oh wait, that was the other way round....

No, just for t he postcount zero, or yes, maybe for change's sake... anyway, this is about the only interesting thread left at poly....

PS: I thought it was clear from a couple of earlier arguments and phrases who I am....

	22-11-2002 21:17									#64
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Roland got banned?

Re the PS, apparently the obvious escapes me.

	22-11-2002 21:23									#65
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If I understood Ming's PM correctly the Roland login was not deleted but logged, so technically I assume Rollie is banned....

	22-11-2002 22:52									#66
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I thought it might be you.....then I changed my mind, because I didn't see you as the DL type. But if your other login got banned it makes sense I guess.

Are you going to tell us why you got banned? As far as I remember there is no law against irrational fed-hating.

	23-11-2002 00:41									#67
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I think you guys should cut DrSpike some slack, we are discussing his field for godsake. If we were talking about that silly law stuff then I think we could manage to let OstRoland wax a bit, or when bond markets come up, I get a little more rope than usual. I, for one, have found this topic to be very interesting - though the snowballs flying around have put me off more than a little.

Anyway. DanS mentioning Taylor getting a Fed post predates this article on Bloomberg from this morning...

http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/economies.html

11/22 11:21
`Taylor Rule' Boosts Treasury Official's Fed Chances (Update1)
By Brendan Murray and Simon Kennedy

Pittsburgh, Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- In November 1992, Stanford University economist John Taylor revolutionized the way central banks think about monetary policy. He also may have made himself a contender to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, economists say.

	23-11-2002 15:55									#68
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I'm a little hung over - so, is Hershostropoler Roland or is he not?

	24-11-2002 03:14									#69
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I thought W doesn't drink anymore?

Congrats on NATO and your BBB rating. Both should help your job a bit. Make sure you end up partnering with a decent global firm when the time comes for that.

Cheers!

	25-11-2002 13:16									#70
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Sten:

"I think you guys should cut DrSpike some slack, we are discussing his field for godsake."

Well he said he puts the risk of the US being the next Japan at one third, but the Fed has made no mistakes according to him. Please. I've been critical of Greenspan since 1998, and been talking about the Japan scenario risk since 1999. Conventional economics has shown again and again to be freakin clueless about bubble economies, and our SpikeDr just has a very pompous way of being clueless.

Spike:

"As far as I remember there is no law against irrational fed-hating."

I don't care if you think my views are irrational, but never say I hate the Fed. Contempt is the word.

	25-11-2002 14:04									#71
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Sten: "I think you guys should cut DrSpike some slack, we are discussing his field for godsake." Well he said he puts the risk of the US being the next Japan at one third, but the Fed has made no mistakes according to him. Please. I've been critical of Greenspan since 1998, and been talking about the Japan scenario risk since 1999. Conventional economics has shown again and again to be freakin clueless about bubble economies, and our SpikeDr just has a very pompous way of being clueless.

As I recall there was a story involved with my 1/3, and the 1/3 itself was an upper bound on the probability......though it was a while ago. At any rate it was to stand in counterpoint to your alarmist views on the appropriate probability, which stood at 1/2 IIRC.

	25-11-2002 14:16									#72
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And I'm still at 50:50.

It is in no way alarmist. I started out with a few % likelihood back in 1999, but things got consistently worse. What were you thinking in 1999 ? Praising the glory of the new economy ?

	25-11-2002 14:20									#73
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Well I don't have a crystal ball, but I know what I think..........Time will tell who is right.

	25-11-2002 14:24									#74
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You need a crystal ball to know what you thought in 1999 ? That's ultra-economist....

Your 2003-2005 prediction ?

	25-11-2002 14:29									#75
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I am prepared to match my 2003-2005 forecasts against any that wish to participate.

Later though, I have to go pompously teach some future clueless people material written by the present day clueless.

	25-11-2002 14:31									#76
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Don't forget your pomphead and "Alan rules"-sticker.

	25-11-2002 14:37									#77
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Those stickers are only handed out to those that have shown their ability not to make stupid, ill-founded arguments about almost every topic we cover.

	25-11-2002 14:45									#78
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I've been only talking the bubble economy issue with you. Most of that can even be brought into conventional economics. So I cannot really judge on that basis whether you deserve your Alan sticker or not.

Now, your prediction ?

	25-11-2002 16:52									#79
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quote: Originally posted by Sten Sture I thought W doesn't drink anymore? Congrats on NATO and your BBB rating. Both should help your job a bit. Make sure you end up partnering with a decent global firm when the time comes for that. Cheers!

W doesn't, but the Lithuanian business community sure as HELL does .

Thanks; it was at least partially factored into everything, from corporate bonds spreads to equities. Times when you could raid companies or buy them from state prop. fund at 1x EV/EBITDA are sooo over .

Partnering, eh? We do team up with various banks that suit our clients needs best on an ad hoc basis; no need yet to tie ourselves up with anyone.

	25-11-2002 23:26									#80
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It's pretty funny how big of difference in expectations exist regarding GDP growth. Some sources talk about revisions of Q3 GDP down to 2.5% (BBC, IIRC). O'Neill talks about revisions upward to 3.5%.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...p=1012571727092

OstStormtrooper: On the 13th in front of congress, Greenspan described a Japanese deflation scenario as "extremely remote".

Sten: Re Taylor, I don't remember where I picked it up lately, although I can remember a Washington Post article describing the frontrunners a year ago or whenever. Odd how groupthink works sometimes, although it's easier to see with word usage. All of the sudden, everybody is using a specific esoteric phrase, etc.

	25-11-2002 23:45									#81
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Oh and for all you Krug lovers...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2002Nov25.html

This guy is so full of BS, it's coming out his ears. What a political hack.

	26-11-2002 00:01									#82
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Hehe unlike you to be so forthright Dan....he must have upset you.

Krugman is a great economist.....arguably the greatest active macroeconomist, and a thoroughly nice guy. I don't enjoy his political columns much myself, but then, that's because my interest in American politics is ephemeral at best. He seems to have a point in his columns though.....even if it is the same point every week.

	26-11-2002 00:09									#83
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I knew I would get a response on that one.

"Hehe unlike you to be so forthright Dan....he must have upset you."

Nah. Just having a little fun. OstHershell always references him in political threads as somebody (a) who knows what he's talking about and (b) has some impact on politics stateside. Since neither are true () -- the NYT has remarkably little currency in American politics for such a good paper -- and this is a Monday, I thought this a good opportunity to bring it up.

	26-11-2002 00:14									#84
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I can't say about (b), but (a) is certainly true.......though that means I agree with Roland I take it........*shudders*.

	26-11-2002 00:15									#85
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"though that means I agree with Roland I take it"

Oh, silly me for bringing that up.

	26-11-2002 00:19									#86
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Now find some common ground for me and Colon.

	26-11-2002 00:22									#87
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Ooh... A challenge...

	26-11-2002 00:31									#88
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Hang on, we both think I am an excellent economist. That's good enough for me.

	26-11-2002 03:51									#89
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Consensus estimate on tomorrows GDP revision is 3.7%, from the 3.1% initial report. Q4 has been postulated at around 2%, but it will likely be stronger.

Meaning, I would suppose, that the large output gap is somewhat smaller than we thought. Combined with accelerating inflation, and declining unemployment, it doesn't seem to me that we needed that 50 basis points of easing. Not that I want to bring up NAIRU again...

The domestic Treasury market is now above the levels it occupied prior to the rate shock and technicals are deteriorating. Mortgage rates are tightening to Treasuries, but exhibiting a similarly weak technical pattern. If these two trends continue then we have the potential for a weak housing market in the states - prices tend to decline when interest rates are rising in a recovery - and then we will see if the Japan scenario has much validity. I give it a ~5% probability, and then only if precipitated by significant policy errors.

Then again I think Krugman is crack smoking paranoid lunatic, so what do I know...

	26-11-2002 04:25									#90
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Someone that has just has the benefit of the NYT column might think that way............but noone that has written as many canonical papers as Krugman can be a crack addict

Besides I've met him.....he gets a bit excited when talking about income distributions in the US, but overall I saw no evidence of drug abuse of any kind.