14-01-2003 11:56									#481
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quote: Originally posted by Sten Sture That part is not necessarily true, depending on how you interpret 'one-time'. When a mortgage is refinanced at a lower interest rate, the monthly payment is less, allowing consumption to be increased for a perpetual period. Unless all of the refinanced mortgages were structured to have the same payment amount with a shorter term, or large cashout and similar term.

When, a refinancing is used to increase debt without increasing interest payments the increase is one-time by all means.
However, when a refinancing is used to decrease the interest payments the increase is one-time as well in a (important) sense. For instance, by refinancing my mortgage one decreases it's annual payments by $2000 to $8000, allowing a 5% increase in his annual consumption spending from $40,000 to $42,000. The year after he'll still be able to spend $42,000, but he can't increase it again by 5% unless he manages refinance his mortgage again on more favourable terms.
That's what I mean when I say that consumption expenditures won't get a further boost from mortgage refinancing even if rates and real estate prices stay put.

	14-01-2003 13:47									#482
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Sten:

"I would contend that the gains in US productivity were only indirectly because of the technology improvements, but were due to job cuts in the manufacturing and service industries"

If you trust the data (I expect them to be revised down as usual, but the trend should stay) we've seen an uptick in US productivity growth through the mini recession. Looks more like US companies took on some fat during the boom time.

"In reality, the technology and telecom industries did enjoy some productivity improvements, but the source of the spectacular gains in worker productivity came from industries whose relative stock performance was falling behind the hyperappreciation of rapid growth companies."

I think after the last revisions we're back to Gordon's initial assessment: The acceleration of productivity growth goes back to the funny accounting in computers. And that's it.

"Value stock companies, representing a much larger portion of domestic production than growth companies, were enjoying decent top-line sales growth, but were having difficulty expanding bottom-line margins enough to attract capital at the same level as the small hyper-growth companies."

About everyone borrowed like crazy. GM and Ford have a huge debtpile. That they bought back stock doesn't change that - they could have issued equity, could they not?

"If the Fed had kept money tighter during this time, it may have discouraged borrowing by value companies"

More importantly, there's a good chance it would have reduced consumer spending and the current account deficit.

"Are we just that inefficient with our delivery, and if so why can't we get it right?"

Well one obvious problem is the lottery. Another one may be the anarchic structure of US healthcare with all kinds of government meddling (also on the tax side). Another one is that doctors have to pay for their med school education, while in most european countries the government funds that up front, so it doesn't show up in health spending. Another one might be the price regulations on pharmaceuticals. Well, might be able to think of others....

Dan:

"I heard figures up to $140,00/year from high school friends who went into health care. I guess it depends on what specialty you're in."

Heard about similar amounts, and that some doctors already refuse to perform the more lawsuit-risky treatments. Excellent result...

GP:

"It was actually a pretty fluffy article.... Some guy from the bank in Texas."

Sounds like McTeer.

	14-01-2003 19:52									#483
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Health is only one of the more dramatic areas where our lottery system of law rewards is having an impact. One of my Democrat friends told me (with glee) that 5 of top 10 people in Florida are all trial lawyer billionaires. These guys are extremely important to Democratic fundraising. And pretty mercenary/odious in their behavior.

Look at the asbestos situation. It's ridiculous. Or breast implants. Where a medical issue was never even proved! Just lawyers going crazy after Clinton FDA made a cautionary statement (that they later regretted).

	15-01-2003 10:53									#484
	DanS's Productivity Increases 300% Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

We have a new firewall at work that blocks access to the "games" category, of which Apolyton is a member.

I'll look at the bright side. My office is getting cleaner every day.

	15-01-2003 10:54									#485
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"Excellent result..."

Perhaps it is.

	15-01-2003 11:08									#486
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quote: We have a new firewall at work that blocks access to the "games" category, of which Apolyton is a member.

Damn 'efficiency' programs .

	15-01-2003 11:16									#487
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" More spectacular productivity performances didn't save other economies from their imbalances so I'm mystified why you are putting so much stock on an acceleration of what, like 0.5%?"

I don't care about the imbalances. They'll work themselves out. And 0.5% is a pretty huge increase, if it can be sustained. Your sense of proportion is off.

	15-01-2003 13:09									#488
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"They'll work themselves out."

And take your productivity increases, if there are any, with them.

	15-01-2003 15:30									#489
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't care about the imbalances. They'll work themselves out. And 0.5% is a pretty huge increase, if it can be sustained. Your sense of proportion is off.

Yeah well, that seems to become the fundamental argument against worries about a second Japan "we just don't care owkey?".

	15-01-2003 15:42									#490
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Roland, what happened to your original username?

	15-01-2003 15:55									#491
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Roland got banned.

	15-01-2003 17:01									#492
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You?!

How? When? For what? For how long?

	15-01-2003 17:02									#493
	Put an end to popups!

I asked Ming to close the account. Wanted a new username, just so, also got a new one at CG....

	15-01-2003 17:10									#494
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Only seven more posts until this threa hits the 500 post limit. Will there be a part 13?

	15-01-2003 19:01									#495
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Ok, here's a bizarre question: does putting someone on death row cost more than a life-time sentence? A friend of mine really wants to know and it's hard to say "no", because its a she.

(and since it has something to do with financial stuff I ask it here )

	15-01-2003 21:33									#496
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I've generally heard that the execution is more costly than the life sentence because of the extensive appeals and such. If you do some web searches on US death penalty, you may be able to find some actual numbers, sources, computations, etc.

If you just take the cost of a few months of death row, plus the execution, I would assme that is LESS than the cost of a lifetown of chow and guards.

	15-01-2003 21:43									#497
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I've heard that the number is 2x for Death Row. No idea how that is broken down.

	15-01-2003 21:46									#498
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and of course it would all depend on the age of the convict.

	16-01-2003 03:38									#499
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Also the state in which the legal proceedings are being held. Some states expidite the appeals proces by going straight to the state supreme court and skipping all the lower appeals courts. This results in faster review and lower costs.

	16-01-2003 04:51									#500
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Yeah well, that seems to become the fundamental argument against worries about a second Japan "we just don't care owkey?".

I dismiss it as a remote possibility at this point, which is why I don't care about it.

	16-01-2003 04:56									#501
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Japanese M4 growth has not been over 4% YoY since '91 by the way. We won't get into a deflationary spiral because cash is a hot-potato in the US. We are too foolhardy to actually save money when we could spend everything we earn on silly toys!!

Keep the money moving, boys.

Danny you want to start #13?

	16-01-2003 06:31									#502
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Yeah well, that seems to become the fundamental argument against worries about a second Japan "we just don't care owkey?". I dismiss it as a remote possibility at this point, which is why I don't care about it.

Try to answer my question about death penalty vs life sentence, you may make more sense at that one.

	16-01-2003 06:34									#503
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Well let's say how much either of them cost on average across all states, are there any stats about that?

I recall a figure of $2 million for a death penalty procedure and an annual cost of $60.000 for a normal prisoner. Would that be a fairly correct figure?

	16-01-2003 06:40									#504
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Sorry for the last 2 posts here, I hadn't noticed a new topic had been opened already.

And here's the link to it: http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...414#post1628414