06-01-2003 23:31									#1
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Plan for the turn (edited to the newest):

Movement:
- Grog: If both warriors remain on the isthmus (most likely), Grog remains fortified. If one of them moves 6, Grog moves 2 at the other hill. In the unlikely event, that the isthmus will be free, Grog moves at it.
- Slash moves 8 in all cases.
- Hack moves S of Tim, most likely 3.
- Ouch moves S of Willy, even if that means to free the mountain for him.
- Crush (see below) moves 8, but we won't let him go very far.

Production:
EotS switches from Pyramids to Granary,which is ready next turn. Hurricane finishes Warrior ("Crush") and starts another one. No change in laborers.

Science:
Pottery is ready. Setting research to Bronze Working, but sliders back to 10.0.0 (no science, no luxury) for 1 turn.

Worker:
Finishes road at the floodplain. Moves 7.

Diplomacy:
We offer the team of VC The Wheel.

Last edited by Sir Ralph on 08-01-2003 at 04:27

	06-01-2003 23:36									#2
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I'd keep Crush in or around Hurricane (maybe 1-2 tiles over toward EotS, actually). I think he'll be needed as settler escort in approx 7 turns, no?

-Arrian

	06-01-2003 23:39									#3
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Hurricane has another Warrior ready in four turns to escort the Settler. Nobody except Willy threatens Hurricane. 2 warriors could annoy Willy muchos worse than one.

	06-01-2003 23:40									#4
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Since Hurricane is building another warrior I say send Crush north to slow one of their warriors. IIRC he's closer to tim, but willy needs another blocking warrior more.

	06-01-2003 23:41									#5
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There is but one problem: can we keep Will from reaching #7 (or so close that he can slip through)? He will most likely go onto the mountain, and from then on try to follow our border towards #7. Are we sure one warrior is enough to hinder him? If not, forget about escorting, and move Crush so we can have a 2 warrior block ready in a few turns.

DeepO

	06-01-2003 23:41									#6
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Heh.. X-posted with 2 of you

DeepO

	07-01-2003 00:17									#7
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Ok, I see. Send him to deal with Willy.

-Arrian

	07-01-2003 01:04									#8
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Settler is ready four turns after the granary, or five turns after the turn we're about to take. Remember, he can move on the turn he's built. That's not enough time for a new warrior in Hurricane to arrive for escort duty.

By my calculations, one warrior can delay Willy enough for us to settle #3 and then #7 if and only if Willy moves onto the mountain range to his southeast. Someone might want to check me on those calculations, though.

	07-01-2003 01:06									#9
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3+3+3+1=10, so Hurricane needs to work the grassland tile one of the four turns it takes to build a warrior. Let's go ahead and do it this turn.

By the way, worker escort is also going to be an issue if we don't want to present Willy with a nice opportunity for a quick grab.

Nathan

	07-01-2003 02:00									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph Hurricane has another Warrior ready in four turns to escort the Settler. Nobody except Willy threatens Hurricane. 2 warriors could annoy Willy muchos worse than one.

I favor this, send Crush to interfere with Willy's movement.

	07-01-2003 02:02									#11
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay By my calculations, one warrior can delay Willy enough for us to settle #3 and then #7 if and only if Willy moves onto the mountain range to his southeast. Someone might want to check me on those calculations, though.

Hmmm, are you talking about Tim? SE of Willy is water.

Nathan, could you please as chief economist lay out a plan for the production in EotS until the second settler is built? At which turns precisely will the two settlers be ready? That would help a lot, as I haven't setup the production test scenario. If you tell me the years the 2 settlers are ready, I'll check the math of their movement and possible escort.

	07-01-2003 02:06									#12
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Another small note: I had forgotten about the worker being ready with the road. What shall he improve next?

	07-01-2003 02:45									#13
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I've been miscalculating by two turns today. First settler from EotS is six turns after the granary, not four; the four turn figure I remembered was after EotS grows after building the granary. Sorry about that. (I knew something sounded too good to be true in our being able to cut off Willy so easily.)


Timeline (assumes worker irrigates, then roads the northeast FP in EOTS's radius and then chops the northernmost fur):

E = Eye of the Storm
H = Hurricane

H Warrior - 2710
E Granary - 2670
H Warrior - 2550
E Settler - 2430
H Worker - 2350 (moves to forest fur by Hurricane to chop)
E Settler - 2270
E Settler - 2110

I'm not projecting Hurricane past 2350 because I don't know what the game situation will indicate we should do with it past that point.

	07-01-2003 02:53									#14
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Next for the worker is go 7 and improve the next FP up the river. That's needed for EotS to get the growth needed for my settler production plans. Then 6 from there and chop to speed up the second settler (which is why to keep the worker on the same side of the river).

By the way, Hurricane will be able to use one of EotS's irrigated furs the last turn of its second warrior (since EotS will switch to working three FPs and one irrigated fur to grow to size 5 quickly). That's why we don't want to wait until the last turn to switch to the grassland. (I thought I remembered that, but I wasn't sure until I re-tested.)

Nathan

	07-01-2003 03:47									#15
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We are damn thin with warriors!

Tim is not a treat. If I calculated right, Hack can slow him down enough, so that he 2150 appears at the tile 7 from the horses. The same turn the settler shuttle arrives at the hill where the city #7 will be built. If we move Hack now on the horses and Tim honors our borders, Tim is blocked. But he may try a lucky shot and attack our settler shuttle, before the city is built. That's why I'd prefer to move Hack on the hill as well, but this allows Tim to get on the horses, before the city is built. Either way, he'd be inside our borders, when the city is built, given #3 is built first.

The bigger treat is Willy. He's even 2 turns aheed, because we can't block his success S next turn. We need 2 warriors to keep him from reaching the city site even 2 turns earlier. One has to block his success 2, the other 1. This way he can either go 4, what doesn't give him any success, or 3, where's the coast. We could gamble and try to do it with one, but that's damn risky!

Warrior math: We have 5 warriors, 2 are planned to be built. Makes 7. 2 we need at the northern border, =5. 1 we need to brake Tim, =4. 2 we need for Willy, =2. The 2 remaining warriors shall defend 2 cities and babysit 2 settlers? Impossible.

Conclusion: Hurricane can not build a Worker! We need the Warriors, every 4 turns till it grows, then every 3 turns (1 shield will most likely be wasted).

EDIT: Another solution would be first to found city #7. This would free us from all the trouble.

EDIT2: In the warrior math I forgot the defense for the worker. Another warrior missing.

Give us warriors, economists! The situation demands it. And let's first found #7. All else would be a gamble.

Last edited by Sir Ralph on 07-01-2003 at 03:53

	07-01-2003 04:00									#16
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If we don't get our chop from a worker from Hurricane, we don't get our third settler four turns after our second. That, coupled with the negative impact on Hurricane's growth, is enough to tip the balance for me to think we're better off founding #7 before #3 if we want to go for a block.

Nathan

	07-01-2003 04:02									#17
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Did you check if EotS gets the lumber bonus? It might as well be Hurricane, it's distance is equal. Or is there a bigger city rule?

	07-01-2003 04:12									#18
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To make the chops work, Hurricane has to be switched to building a wonder temporarily, but with that done, EotS gets the production. (Hurricane gets it otherwise.)

Nathan

	07-01-2003 04:44									#19
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I still think that's one of the neatest tricks we learned so far, that wonders can direct chops

All this gambling and assuming, in many cases even discrediting security... we're already going to have a frustrated Vox, as they will be hindered, sometimes even outright blocked for 12 turns. Don't give them any possible opportunity to take advantage of. We can risk leaving a city undefended with a warrior within range now, and maybe 2 or 3 turns from now, but after that I'd calculate it that everything is tightly secured, not provoking an attack in any way. They are not to get any ideas.

The short solution is easy. Build city #7 first.

DeepO

	07-01-2003 05:01									#20
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quote: Originally posted by DeepO we're already going to have a frustrated Vox, as they will be hindered, sometimes even outright blocked for 12 turns.

Doing this will be me a pleasure.

	07-01-2003 05:29									#21
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Well, nobody said you couldn't, but please do it when we aren't risking anything

DeepO

	07-01-2003 12:24									#22
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Could we please set the science slider to zero for a turn? With the granary and some future unit upkeep costs, we'll use it before too long, but I'd like to buy another turn before we have to decide what research path we'll pursue. See the thread I just started, "War or Peace".

Nathan

Last edited by nbarclay on 07-01-2003 at 13:45

	07-01-2003 13:47									#23
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I'm not very comfortable with that idea. Unit upkeep won't be an issue, because we're not going to use our 4 unit allowance for each new city, at least not yet. And the granary can hardly justify the loss of a complete turn of research. On one side we are struggling for each food, shield and commerce we can press out of the terrain, on the other we're sacrificing a whole turn of research. Mind you, that we need Swordsmen for defense too. It's too risky to rely on War Chariots, when facing Immortals, who can additionaly use impassable mountains and jungle to approach and as shelter when injured. Bronze Working would not be wasted in any case, neglecting our defense could prove to be a fatal mistake.

But I will wait for your thread. The game is stuck anyway, because RP sent VC the wrong save and Eli of course used the situation to have a glance at their capital and starting location.

	07-01-2003 14:14									#24
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When the settler is built, we'll be one unit over the limit - seven warriors, a worker, and a settler. Two turns later, we'll get a second worker, putting us two over briefly. So we will have a little bit of unit upkeep costs in addition to the upkeep for the granary.

In my view, Bronze Working is worth little in and of itself. WCs are our best defense as long as we keep flat land between us and Vox, and any city we can't protect with WCs won't do much better with spearmen defending it. (And we won't have the production to build spearmen just to park on mountains any time in the halfway near future - at least not if we want to focus on barracks and veteran troops for long-term military strength.) Going for both Bronze Working and Iron Working before going for Map Making would present a rather significant delay in contact with other civs, giving Vox more time to build up a tech lead.

Nathan

	07-01-2003 14:25									#25
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Again: We have yet to survive to get a benefit from rapid growth and good economy.

I'm not talking about Spearmen, I'm talking about Bronze Working as prerequisite for Iron Working. For an efficient defense we need Swordsmen. Alphabet and Writing are expensive techs and it will take a while to get them. We can bet, that VC already has Iron Working. So far they have shown to be a nasty and unreliable neighbor. Plus, they will have knowledge about our cities how they are their defended. And I would really hate to blow our GA just for a small bunch of regular Immortals.

	07-01-2003 15:37									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph Again: We have yet to survive to get a benefit from rapid growth and good economy. I'm not talking about Spearmen, I'm talking about Bronze Working as prerequisite for Iron Working. For an efficient defense we need Swordsmen. Alphabet and Writing are expensive techs and it will take a while to get them. We can bet, that VC already has Iron Working. So far they have shown to be a nasty and unreliable neighbor. Plus, they will have knowledge about our cities how they are their defended. And I would really hate to blow our GA just for a small bunch of regular Immortals.

Sir Ralph, I think you're (1) failing to realize quite how early in the game we are and (2) chasing shadows rather than looking at what the enemy is actually likely to do. With fourteen turns' notice between the time we see Vox's forces and the time they reach our borders, we could easily prepare a solid defense of whatever sort we want. We could build archers if they come in with archers and/or spearmen trying to blow our GA, or war chariots if they come in with immortals (unless it's just one or two). And they have to know that. I see no reason to tailor our plans to fit irrational strategies on Vox's part instead of focusing on what works best if they follow rational strategies - especially when we do have means (albeit perhaps not ideal) of surviving even if they do something irrational.

Edit: And how insane would Vox have to be to blow their GA sending a small force of immortals into the teeth of WC's?

Nathan

	07-01-2003 16:01									#27
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You are talking about plans on at least middle terms. At this time we're not very early in the game anymore. I think that's what you are failing to see. We'll be militarily still in the stone age at this time. And War Chariots have no teeth, at least compared with the units we might going to face then.

	07-01-2003 16:28									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph You are talking about plans on at least middle terms. At this time we're not very early in the game anymore. I think that's what you are failing to see. We'll be militarily still in the stone age at this time. And War Chariots have no teeth, at least compared with the units we might going to face then.

I still think you're underestimating the effects of distance. For their units to reach us by 1400 BC, they have to build them around 2000 BC or just a little after, which is around the time they'll presumably build their next wave of cities. That lag greatly reduces what they can throw at us.

Still, looking back at the map, I noticed a better reason for bronze and iron than I'd spotted before. Hurricane is vulnerable if Persia can get immortals onto the mountains to its northeast, and we won't necessarily have the road network that would be needed for WCs to ensure that that doesn't happen in addition to their other duties. And Iron Working would give us a little more flexibility to settle other places that would otherwise be easy pickings for immortals.

Nathan

	07-01-2003 16:53									#29
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay Still, looking back at the map, I noticed a better reason for bronze and iron than I'd spotted before. Hurricane is vulnerable if Persia can get immortals onto the mountains to its northeast, and we won't necessarily have the road network that would be needed for WCs to ensure that that doesn't happen in addition to their other duties. And Iron Working would give us a little more flexibility to settle other places that would otherwise be easy pickings for immortals.

That's what I'm talking about. WCs can ambush Immortals in open terrain. But our 2 mountains are excellent routes to approach forces.

If they come with Immortals and Spearmen mixed about 1:1, the Spearmen will suck up most of the WC attacks and the Immortals remain healthy and kill the WCs that had to stop in their front in the counterattack. After this, the whole stack moves on. See my point? In attack our WCs are facing low cost Spearmen, in defense Immortals. With this tactic I dare to say, they can even take EotS, if they succeeded to approach over the Spinebreaker mountains.

	07-01-2003 18:00									#30
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay I still think you're underestimating the effects of distance. For their units to reach us by 1400 BC, they have to build them around 2000 BC or just a little after, which is around the time they'll presumably build their next wave of cities. That lag greatly reduces what they can throw at us.

I think you're overestimating it. Don't forget, that according to your plan about 1400BC we're only beginning to research better units. It will take at least eight turns to research both techs. To rely on tech trade is even worse, because our galleys first to have to find another civ and this civ has to be willing to trade, which we're far from being able to assume. Since we won't have money to upgrade, we still have to build some Swordsmen and to send them in position. Make it at least 1000BC or even later, when we finally will be able to put up a halfway decent defense.