09-01-2003 22:24									#1
	Turn 29 Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

I have preset the no-brainers again, edit them at your will:

Status:
- We possess 22 gold and are running 1 deficit.
- Researching Bronze Working at 100%. Ready in 5, maybe even 4 turns.
- The trade offer to VC has been cancelled.

Urgent questions:
none, this time

Military:
- If Rodney moves 6, Slash moves 3. If not, Slash fortifies. Grog remains fortified.
- Hack shadows Tim, keeping S of him.
- If Willy moves 1 (expected), Ouch moves 4 and Crush 8, blocking Willy from both SW and S. Annoying, I guess, but what the heck do we care!

Economy:
- No changes to worker or cities.
- Set science slider back to zero. (Tensions with Vox have thawed and our trade proposal may be workable after all.)

Diplomacy:
nothing

Your turn!

Economic Projections (for future consideration):
- Warrior in 2 turns in Hurricane, Settler in 5 in EotS.
- EotS grows next turn. Have three laborers work irrigated FPs and one work an irrigated fur. Shift Hurricane's laborer to the other irrigated fur.
- Worker finishes irrigation; starts road next turn.

Last edited by nbarclay on 10-01-2003 at 12:27

	10-01-2003 00:09									#2
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We still have another turn before EotS grows, but definitely allocate three laborers to FPs and one to an irrigated fur (letting Hurricane use the other irrigated fur for a couple turns). Thanks to getting the production from new laborers the turn they appear (even if one becomes part of a settler the same turn), that still lets us build our settler four turns after we grow, and it puts us on a two-turn-per-pop growth pace. (With the kind of food surplus we have in EotS, governors love having new laborers work forest furs, so each time we grow, we can get the production benefit from those tiles for a turn without paying the food penalty. Of course we have to be ceareful to move the new laborers to a higher-food tile afterward so we don't stunt our growth.)

Nathan

	10-01-2003 00:22									#3
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I suggest that if Rodney and/or slash move then we move Slash and Grog 3 and fortify them next turn in the 2 tiles-wide chokepoint.
Btw, I don't see why we moved away from the 2 tiles-wide chokepoint that is adjacent to the 1 tile Isthmus in the first place.

	10-01-2003 00:44									#4
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay We still have another turn before EotS grows,

That's why I wrote next turn and not this turn. The turn threads are always based on the time we get the turn.

quote: but definitely allocate three laborers to FPs and one to an irrigated fur (letting Hurricane use the other irrigated fur for a couple turns). Thanks to getting the production from new laborers the turn they appear (even if one becomes part of a settler the same turn), that still lets us build our settler four turns after we grow, and it puts us on a two-turn-per-pop growth pace. (With the kind of food surplus we have in EotS, governors love having new laborers work forest furs, so each time we grow, we can get the production benefit from those tiles for a turn without paying the food penalty. Of course we have to be ceareful to move the new laborers to a higher-food tile afterward so we don't stunt our growth.)

Ok, this makes sense. Now if you would edit your orders in the first post? Ok, this time I'm doing it for you.

	10-01-2003 00:53									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Shiber I suggest that if Rodney and/or slash move then we move Slash and Grog 3 and fortify them next turn in the 2 tiles-wide chokepoint.

This way we lose the isthmus out of view. I think we should move there only if we are enforced by Rodney.

quote: Btw, I don't see why we moved away from the 2 tiles-wide chokepoint that is adjacent to the 1 tile Isthmus in the first place.

Slash never was there, only Grog and one warrior can't block 2 tiles without real ZoC. The time Rodney tried to slip through, Slash was still struggling his way north. That was the reason Grog had to move back in order to secure the other 2-tile border before Rodney can reach it.

	10-01-2003 00:56									#6
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Thanks, I suppose I wasn't following warrior movement well. I agree with your remark about losing sight of the Isthmus.

	10-01-2003 01:53									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph Ok, this makes sense. Now if you would edit your orders in the first post? Ok, this time I'm doing it for you.

I really don't think questions regarding next turn belong in the section on orders for this turn to begin with; that's why I didn't put my response there. Such mixing of purposes could be confusing if the person who plays the turn isn't the one who put the extraneous (for this turn's purposes) material there.

This weekend, I'll get something going in our topped thread with longer-range economic plans, and we can use other threads (probably the turn thread for short-term discussions and something else for longer-term discussions) to discuss those plans.

Nathan

	10-01-2003 02:15									#8
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So you don't want a laborer switch in this (29) turn? Ok, I edit it back. Sometimes relocating laborers in the turn before the growth gives one or more extra shield or commerce (but not food) out of the new citizen, if we're sure, where the governor places him. For instance in case of EotS the governor could place the citizen at the other irrigated floodplain, but the extra food would give us nothing, because we start the turn in all cases with an empty food box.

EDIT: Xposted with your edit

	10-01-2003 02:16									#9
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I moved the future economic stuff to an Economic Projections section; that approach can serve for the next couple days or so until I get the longer-term plans laid out where others can see them.

	10-01-2003 02:20									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph So you don't want a laborer switch in this (29) turn? Ok, I edit it back. Sometimes relocating laborers in the turn before the growth gives one or more extra shield or commerce (but not food) out of the new citizen, if we're sure, where the governor places him. For instance in case of EotS the governor could place the citizen at the other irrigated floodplain, but the extra food would give us nothing, because we start the turn in all cases with an empty food box. EDIT: Xposted with your edit

See what I mean about the risk of confusion if future stuff gets mixed in with orders for the current turn?

	10-01-2003 06:53									#11
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I'm off for today. Vondrack is most likely sleeping (that's what I should have done long ago) and Jack_www usually sends his turns between 10-11pm EST (Poly time). I won't stay up for one more hour, so feel free to play the turn. It's an easy one.

	10-01-2003 06:57									#12
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Well done, everybody.

What's the latest thinking on the next town to build?

	10-01-2003 07:16									#13
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If Vox maintains their current behavior, I favor building our horse city to cut them off. If they stop pushing down farther toward our territory, we can go ahead and go for site #3 just southeast of the game tile.

Edit: They've agreed to stop pushing, so #3 it is.

Last edited by nbarclay on 10-01-2003 at 13:07

	10-01-2003 11:05									#14
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Vox has agreed to withdraw their expolorers and has, moreover, given us a description of their lands. It looks like their voices of reason and peace have won. The awkward thing is that they want us to reciprocate with a similar description of our own lands. (It's a bit annoying having them decide what the "compromise" between our peoples should look like without consulting us, but given that they held the stronger hand to begin with, it's not nearly as annoying as it could be. An exchange of current minimaps might be worth proposing to further clarify the situation.)

From their description, we were right in speculating that their lands north of the chokepoint were small. It also turns out that my speculation that they might possibly be stuck with lots of plains and no river was correct, so we'll probably have a significant wealth and science advantage for a while.

I'd like to propose offering to let Tim move 3-3 and Willy stay where he is in exchange for their letting our warriors maintain a watchful position where we are, with each side moving back as the other expands. With them about to build a city on the chokepoint, we need to offer them similarly advanced positions if we want to maintain our early warning system (which I think we definitely do), and those two tiles are the best forward observation posts I can find for them. And letting them actually move forward just a little after they've agreed to withdraw can't hurt their sentiment toward us (I hope).

Edit: corrected proposed lookout positions for Vox warriors. I was looking at the wrong map.

Nathan

Last edited by nbarclay on 10-01-2003 at 11:17

	10-01-2003 12:17									#15
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Our proposed trade may possibly be back on, so I'd like to suspend our research for a turn to see what happens. With the thawing of relations between us and Vox, I think we can afford it, and we'll use the gold eventually.

I'm about to send Vox the following short message (and I hope no one minds, but time is short):

quote: [Sent to BetaHound with copies to Dissident and Jon Miller] Greetings BetaHound and Vox Controli, I must emphasize that this message is from me personally as chief economist and sometimes de facto ambassador, not from all of Gathering Storm. Time is short, and I feel that I must act quickly (and somewhat independently) if I am to prevent an opportunity from slipping past. I can only hope that it is not already too late. The thaw you have just brought in the tensions between our lands is very welcome indeed. But the tensions have already done significant damage to our trade proposal. When you seemingly rejected our trade proposal (even casting doubt on whether what we had to offer was possible), and also kept advancing Tim and Willy and brought in a worker to further block Grog's movement, that gave the militarists the upper hand in guiding our research. As a result, we started on Bronze Working instead of on Alphabet, which greatly complicates efforts to keep our trade proposal alive. Nonetheless, I continue to regard it as foolish for us to duplicate research efforts when we have opportunities to follow separate paths and exchange our results. I am therefore requesting a brief halt in our research on Bronze Working (and I am not sure even a brief one will be acceptable to our other leaders; certainly anything more will not be) to provide a small amount of additional time to perhaps keep our offer alive. I can understand your need to discuss matters, but whatever window of opportunity might still be open will not remain open for long - at least not regarding this particular proposal. In regard to your comments on pottery, our people are already making good use of such knowledge. I am having my messenger bring you a few small samples that may aid your research in some small way. We had thought that we might offer to trade you Pottery and The Wheel for Iron Working (if you have that knowledge) after we finished Bronze Working, but if you are very far along in your research, that too may be an opportunity lost due to tensions and poor communication. In any case, I welcome this new era in our relationship and hope for a long and prosperous friendship between our peoples. Sincerely, Nathan Barclay, Chief Economist of Gathering Storm

	10-01-2003 16:00									#16
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Turn received.

Rodney fortified at his hill. The Voxian Worker went on Rodneys hill. Willy and Tim both went 1. So far they did not stop their advance. Hack moves 1 and keeps S of Willy. Ouch moves 4 and Crush 8, so that Tim is blocked from both S and SW. Slash fortifies. No further actions.

Turn will be sent in a couple of minutes.

Screenies: zoom, power, f11. Power went back and is about the same like it was 2 turns ago, slightly to our favor, but not much.

	10-01-2003 16:07									#17
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Did you cut the science slider back to zero as I requested? I'm inclined to assume that they came to their decision after they sent their turn, and that that is why their actions this turn do not reflect their change in policy.

Nathan

	10-01-2003 16:12									#18
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No, didn't see it yet. But do you really want to stall our science for a "maybe"? Vox betrayed us twice, promising things and taking it back a turn later. If you are still willing to trust them, I will take the slider back. But I would be in favor to work out another deal, like Wheel+Pottery/Iron.

	10-01-2003 16:24									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph No, didn't see it yet. But do you really want to stall our science for a "maybe"? Vox betrayed us twice, promising things and taking it back a turn later. If you are still willing to trust them, I will take the slider back. But I would be in favor to work out another deal, like Wheel+Pottery/Iron.

Vox's handling of the exploration issue can easily be explained by a combination of (1) carelessness in their choice of words and (2) reluctance to give up an advantage (especially when doing so would apparently let us walk right up to their city borders). BetaHound may not even have been thinking about how quickly our warriors would run into a blockade when he wrote his message about respecting each other's rights to expand our horizons. So I'm not ready to call that a deliberate betrayal.

What other betrayal do you have in mind?

	10-01-2003 16:27									#20
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By the way, they're researching Pottery right now, so Wheel+Pottery for Iron may or may not be workable.

Nathan

	10-01-2003 16:28									#21
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If they only just started pottery, we could try for pottery for BW. (maybe include a few extra gold?)

It's a long shot, but you never know.

	10-01-2003 16:37									#22
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Alva, what's your take on how badly they have or haven't betrayed us? Do you think the problem is one of bad faith on their part, or more along the lines of carelessness (and SP-oriented thinking about what's "proper" in regard to chokepoints) coupled with slowness to make a decision when we complained?

Come to think of it, if I recall correctly, they came to their decision within four days of the time they actually read my first message. That's not a truly horrible response time, and while it was highly irritating having them continue to explore during that time, their revelations about their homeland more or less undo that damage.

	10-01-2003 16:41									#23
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay By the way, they're researching Pottery right now, so Wheel+Pottery for Iron may or may not be workable.

And we are researching Bronze Working right now and also would lose the investment of 12 beakers.

	10-01-2003 16:48									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph And we are researching Bronze Working right now and also would lose the investment of 12 beakers.

Which is less than one fifth of the cost of the technology. I'd rather write that off than write off all 62 beakers or so as a loss relative to everyone but Vox.


Edit: beakers, not shields.

	10-01-2003 16:49									#25
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I don't call it very trustworthy to say, that they will withdraw their explorers, while continuing their pressure south. Also, I don't know what they mean by "mountains in the north".

I agree with Nathan on the matter, that they don't betray us because they are evil, but because they are careless. It's a pain to negotiate with careless people. "So we forgot our part of the deal? Oops, perhaps next turn. And if we forget it again, perhaps later...". At the time Betahound wrote about our right to explore north, they saw Grog and knew how quick he would advance. And their statement, that right behind the isthmus begins their territory is also wrong, because in that case we would see their borders, and be it only a small edge.

All this is not very apt to increase my trust.

	10-01-2003 16:56									#26
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I'm not ready to trust them 100% myself, but considering how much we have to gain if a deal goes through compared with how little we have to lose just deferring research one turn and stockpiling the gold for later use, I think waiting a turn is worth the risk.

Nathan

	10-01-2003 17:02									#27
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In regard to the accusation that they said they'll withdraw but continued south, what time did they play their turn? I'm pretty sure it was several hours before they sent their promise to withdraw. It would have been good politics to at least stop their warriors if they were seriously considering the withdrawal, but if they were any good at such politics, they wouldn't have kept moving south to begin with.

Edit: Dissident posted of having sent the turn at 12:40 my time, and the first part of the message from BetaHound was sent at 21:53 my time.

Last edited by nbarclay on 10-01-2003 at 17:16

	10-01-2003 17:14									#28
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Can we agree to the formula, that we trust them once more, stall our research for one more turn and offer them The Wheel again, but this is definitely the last time we trust them? Is there a way to tell them this fact? And if they decline the deal again, we won't trust them again for a very long time.

	10-01-2003 17:21									#29
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They haven't promised to accept a deal, so it would not be fair for us to view it as an act of bad faith if they do not. Rather, we are choosing to take a calculated risk on the basis that the rewards if they do decide to deal vastly outweigh the losses if they do not. Of course how they react this time certainly will have an effect on our willingness to take similar calculated risks in the future.

	10-01-2003 17:29									#30
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So what do you propose to do if the trade fails again? To wait again, and again, and so on?