24-01-2003 20:24									#31
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Should I remind you of the situation in Afghanistan? It's not a pretty one. That's why you don't see it on TV. The Taliban was a lot smaller, poorly armed, and sitting out in the mountains.

I would like to see the US carpet bomb Baghdad. Make my day.

	24-01-2003 20:26									#32
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quote: "Surgical operations " Hey, we can land those things in windows from the air. Ya there will be collarateral. But you know what, it wont warrant enough to stop the bombing. Unless, Saddam, say. Decides to use those human shields. Then its his own fault.

Which windows?

If ground troops can aim a laser designator at a window, then they can aim a rocket-launched grenade at it just as easily. But precision munitions are useless if you don't know where the enemy is: and, in urban warfare, you get to find out when your soldiers start dying.

And, yes, he will use the civilian population as human shields. He can avoid blame by pointing out that this is what happens when an invading army tries to massacre armed civilians defending their homes.

I hope the military has a contingency plan that isn't dependent on Saddam surrendering or being turned on by the Iraquis. But, other than using local opposition forces as cannon fodder (which I don't think they will agree to), I think the only alternative is to isolate Baghdad (but drop food in) and use somewhere else as an "acting capital" for the rest of Iraq.

	24-01-2003 20:29									#33
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quote: Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless I think the only alternative is to isolate Baghdad (but drop food in) and use somewhere else as an "acting capital" for the rest of Iraq.

That's going to be very expensive. You need tons of men, and there is still no escape from random snipings by Iraqi forces.

	24-01-2003 20:40									#34
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quote: What will happen at Baghdad?

I suspect there'll be a siege of Baghdad. Hopefully, we'll be sick of war eventuallly.

	24-01-2003 20:44									#35
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Maybe the US could then call on the other Arab nations, for an all-Arab army of occupation to go into Baghdad.

But would they cooperate? And would the Iraquis let them in?

	24-01-2003 20:46									#36
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I suppose if US troops find chemical and/or biological weapons in Iraq, they may. Otherwise, doubtful.

	24-01-2003 20:48									#37
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I'd bet that if an Arab state actually does help the US prosecute this war, it'd have something damn close to a revolution on its hands.

	24-01-2003 21:00									#38
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quote: I'd bet that if an Arab state actually does help the US prosecute this war, it'd have something damn close to a revolution on its hands.

People said that before the last Gulf War and nothing came of it. It's certainly a possibility, but not a very likely one IMO.

	24-01-2003 21:08									#39
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quote: Originally posted by faded glory "at a recent conference there were 60 plus Iraqi opposition groups represented, most of whom hate each other only slightly less than they are against Saddam. That should make for some clear democratic decision making." Ya. So? Your looking at the bigger picture and going nuts. Im saying, cross the bridges as you get to them. First concentrate on overthrowing Saddam. Then worry about post-war Iraq.

Wow. That right there is one of the most dangerous attitudes one can have and is a major reason that this war should be avoided. Do you honestly think that war should be fought with a "damn the consequences" mentality?

	24-01-2003 21:10									#40
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A recent rant by Saddam included the claim that his enemies will "commit suicide at the gates of Baghdad".

...Which implies that he's already preparing for this scenario. He didn't say "at the borders of Iraq", he's admitting that the rest of Iraq will fall.

	24-01-2003 21:23									#41
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quote: Originally posted by orange no it doesn't what it proves is that, if attacked, Saddam will use his B+C weapons. We already know that. Hence the protest.

Exactly - but in the same breath the protesters said that Saddam has no B + C weapons.

	24-01-2003 21:33									#42
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quote: A recent rant by Saddam included the claim that his enemies will "commit suicide at the gates of Baghdad". ...Which implies that he's already preparing for this scenario. He didn't say "at the borders of Iraq", he's admitting that the rest of Iraq will fall.

Not that I'm succumbing to the overconfidence syndrome that seems to be going around, but this is the same guy who promised the world the "Mother of All Battles" back in Gulf War Round 1.

-Arrian

	24-01-2003 22:04									#43
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Theres a world of difference though Arrian. The desert had always been considered the best terrain for mobile armoured forces. The city is virtually the opposite.

So far I've heard of plans for 4 american divisions and 1 brit division. Thats not enough troops to take and hold Baghdad (pop 5M) if the local populace doesnt greet us with open arms and actively help the overthrow.

While I dont agree with all of it here's an interesting link

Last edited by SpencerH on 24-01-2003 at 22:17

	24-01-2003 22:30									#44
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Note - about a third of Baghdad is Shiite. Isolated groups of Pro-Saddam soldiers wont last long there. Which points to the Iraqi problem in defending baghdad - Urban opertions favor the defended in small groups , fighting guerilla style. But this both reduces Iraqi command and control over its troops (IE makes it easier for them to surrender) and exposes them to the wrath of the population - unless theyve evacuated the population, in which case US firepower can dominate (harder than in open ground, but still doable)

Lets look at it this way - reports indicate that Saddam does not allow regular troops OR Republican Guards into Bagdad. Only Special Republican Guards are relaible enough to be kept in the capital. How many of them are there, 40,000???
And they are apparently not all that well trained in urban warfare themselves, since they have been kept mainly for domestic control. A difficult problem, but far from insoluble.

	24-01-2003 22:35									#45
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He appears to be arming the citizenry, however.

Unusually for a dictator, he permits the sale of weapons to ordinary citizens.

Edit: Damn, can't find a link for that. Alleged quote from Dan Rather: "Iraqi civilians are buying guns in great numbers if they can afford it, not to fight Americans but to protect themselves in the coming anarchy after the war."

Irrespective of the stated reason: it means that reasonably affluent Iraquis can buy guns.

Last edited by Jack the Bodiless on 24-01-2003 at 22:42

	24-01-2003 22:39									#46
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I hate to say it but I almost hope Saddam does use his Chemical weapons once or twice since it will completely prove the case and make the anti-war protesters look like the stupid fools that they are.

In other words you hope American troops die a horrible and lingering death and are maimed for life just to make your side look better? And you wonder why we don't trust people like you?

	24-01-2003 22:46									#47
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It could go either way, quick or protracted. Either way, US casualties are likely to be in the thousands, while Iraqi casualities are likely to be in the hundreds of thousands. Either way, Baghdad will fall.

	24-01-2003 22:48									#48
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And even better if he uses chem weapons it will give US all the reasons to use those new nukes they have been developing lately. Finnaly a good opt out clause on the nuclear testing moratorium

Afterall flattening Baghdad would be a good example to all the terrorists in the world of what is awaiting them.

	24-01-2003 22:48									#49
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quote: while Iraqi casualities are likely to be in the hundreds of thousands.

	24-01-2003 23:04									#50
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara It could go either way, quick or protracted. Either way, US casualties are likely to be in the thousands, while Iraqi casualities are likely to be in the hundreds of thousands. Either way, Baghdad will fall.

Its not impossible.

However if Iraqi casualties are much lower than that, dont expect teh US military to get any credit - folks will move on to some other issue

Look at Afganistan :
September 2001- the US will need 100,000 troops, like the Soviets did, you cant win a war from the air and the Northern alliance is divided, untrained, unmotivated and ineffective.
Novemeber 2001 - The northern alliance are the warlord thugs who destroyed Kabul, let them into Kabul and they will start another civil war as bad as in the early '90s and the Taliban will come right back
early December - The northern alliance can hold Kabul,but the US has no friends in the south, the Taliban will hold out.
Jan 2002 - The Karzai govt is weak it wont last more than a few months.
June 2002 - The soviets had things their own way for the first year, it was when the second year started that things fell apart
Sept 2002 - someone tried to shoot karzai, there was a big bomb explosion in Kabul, see it is falling apart.
November 2002 well things didnt fall apart, but Karzai still only controls Kabul and a few surrounding provinces, theres violent opposition in the Pashtun areas and warlord control elsewhere
January 2003 - ok so Khost and Paktia provinces are controlled by pro-Karzai governors, and the central govt is taking actions to weaken the warlords, BUT Hekmatyar is a threat in Konar, Ismail Kham is still autonomous in Herat, and it will ALL FALL APART when the US shifts its attention to Iraq.

This is not to say things couldnt go seriously wrong in Iraq. They could.

	24-01-2003 23:41									#51
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When they get to Baghdad, they'll expand the definition of military target to everything bigger than a market stall and bomb the city to rubble. By the time they get to Baghdad, they'll be running short of precision munitions as usual, so it'll be dumb bombs time.

The rubble will make the city easier to defend, but of course hundreds of thousands of civilians will die, not to mention Iraqi conscripts, who are so inferior to US forces that they're practically civilians, will be unmercifully massacred from the air. They can't even surrender to the missiles and helicopters.

The large amounts of DU ammuntion used, and the systematic destruction of the country's infrastructure, will make the entire area practically uninhabitable. Iraqi refugees will flee the country to every corner of the Earth.

	24-01-2003 23:54									#52
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I still stand by my theory that there really will be no great battle, and that Saddam will flee. Not because he wants to, because his generals will turn on him.

	24-01-2003 23:56									#53
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Aliens will land in the middle of the ruin of Baghdad, and will claim the area to be a colony of the migthy empire of xahlthuar.

Richard Dean Anderson will star in a drag show that will portray the heroic life of Thyl Ulenshpiegel.

A armada of marine creatures will surface near the shores of NYC and will start an aquatic gymanstic performance that would last for 37 years.

	25-01-2003 00:01									#54
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quote: Originally posted by Sandman The large amounts of DU ammuntion used, and the systematic destruction of the country's infrastructure, will make the entire area practically uninhabitable. Iraqi refugees will flee the country to every corner of the Earth.

Then it will be a failure for US strategy, which is to build up a post-war pro-US Iraq as a base for changing the rest of the Middle East. To which it has been rumoured that the US military is going to go out of its way NOT to target Iraqi infrastructure. But we'll find out soon.

	25-01-2003 00:01									#55
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Great, they must of heard a MacDonalds was planned for Baghdad after the war, and thought they'd get in quickly before they did.

	25-01-2003 00:17									#56
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Chegitz:

Well, UR was hoping the United States would "make his day" by carpet-bombing Baghdad. Chastise him, too, willya?

Gatekeeper

	25-01-2003 00:21									#57
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I hope the US bombs the Chinese embassy in Baghdad...

	25-01-2003 00:23									#58
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Should I remind you of the situation in Afghanistan? It's not a pretty one. That's why you don't see it on TV.

I follow the afghan situation -what is going on there that you are referring to?

	25-01-2003 00:29									#59
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quote: People said that before the last Gulf War and nothing came of it. It's certainly a possibility, but not a very likely one IMO.

The Gulf War I is a very different war from Gulf War II. Saddam doesn't pose a threat to any other state anymore, and opposition to the US has drastically increased since the Afghan War.

Look at how the people in a mostly secular, non-Arab state like Pakistan have responded to the fact that US soldiers operated from their bases when there was a legitimate casus belli. Do you honestly believe that an Arab state is going to get away with sending soldiers to help the US in Iraq when there is not a legitimate casus belli?

	25-01-2003 00:31									#60
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quote: Then it will be a failure for US strategy, which is to build up a post-war pro-US Iraq as a base for changing the rest of the Middle East. To which it has been rumoured that the US military is going to go out of its way NOT to target Iraqi infrastructure. But we'll find out soon.

I was probably exaggerating just a wee bit. But I still expect to see large scale emigration from Iraq, especially the middle classes.

If you have absolutely loads of planes at the ready, and there are no more targets to bomb, then it takes a supreme effort of willpower not to widen the target range. I don't think that the US has that willpower.

If the US tries to be 'gentle' and is rewarded with a bloody nose (several helicopters shot down would be bloody nose for the US), then they'll probably end up being harsh, using the human shield excuse.