24-01-2003 16:36									#1
	Standoff at Baghdad? Full PM-box? Change here!

Assuming the war against Iraq goes ahead...

US and British forces romp all over the desert after bombing all visible Iraqi military installations from the air. They eventually reach Baghdad itself.

...Then what?

Their technological advantage is pretty much useless in street-by-street fighting. Bombing areas occupied by civilians is unacceptable nowadays. Sending ground troops into an urban combat zone will result in many, many body bags. Laying siege to the city is also unacceptable nowadays.

Sure, they'll try assassination. But assassins might not succeed. I expect they'll arbitrarily decree that "the city of Baghdad contains no Weapons of Mass Destruction, therefore we have completed our mission".

...And then go home? With Saddam still technically in power? Unlikely.

Isolate Baghdad and set up an alternative capital to govern the country? Use local troops to take Baghdad as the Northern Alliance took Kabul? Do the Kurds have the numbers and the will to do this, and will they get a fully-independent Kurdistan as a reward?

What will happen at Baghdad?

	24-01-2003 16:37									#2
	Put an end to popups!

Could be like the Suez crisis - everyone standing around looking ridiculous. US forced to withdraw out of sheer embarrassment.

	24-01-2003 16:50									#3
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

The Iraqi army will roll over and die. Surgical operations to take out command and control centres with the generals/colonels that have too much to lose, and the common soldier will just give up facing the far better equipped US army.

Last edited by lightblue on 24-01-2003 at 16:56

	24-01-2003 16:54									#4
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

I suspect that once Saddam is down to his last bunker the Iraqis will be tripping over themselves saying how they've always hated him and now would like to help get rid of him.

	24-01-2003 16:55									#5
	Tired of ads?

Does the US military have any new toys intended for combat in urban areas it wants to try out?

	24-01-2003 16:58									#6
	Inflate your Upload Space

If the Iraqis use just ONE chemical warhead the entire US forces will be eating, sleeping and washing in NBC suits, not just trying to fight in them. That isn't going to do much for combat efficiency.

	24-01-2003 17:28									#7
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Yes, those MOP suits suck. I could hardly stand wearing them for an hour much less day after day. On the up side if Saddam uses his chemical weapons, and when his back is to the wall he probably will, this will just prove the Brits and Americans have been right all along. That Saddam is a liar and a dirty cheat.

	24-01-2003 17:29									#8
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

I predict, the second US/UK troops enter across the Iraqi border, Sadam will magically disapear never to be seen again, along with several billion, some Deputy will take over and welcome the troops into Baghdad, and it will all be over in a few days . The real battle will then begin .. weeding out extremists, picking up the peices Sadam left, and trying to convince the rest of the Arab world that Iraq will be ruled by the Iraqi people.

	24-01-2003 17:43									#9
	Get a bigger avatar today!

This seems to rely on the assumption that Saddam is too stupid to realize that the US would have big problems trying to take Baghdad.

Let's assume Saddam has thought this through.

Why should he run, if Baghdad can't be taken?

If Baghdad can be taken: how?

	24-01-2003 17:46									#10
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

That's the funnest thing I have heard in a long time.

	24-01-2003 17:46									#11
	Full PM-box? Change here!

I hate to say it but I almost hope Saddam does use his Chemical weapons once or twice since it will completely prove the case and make the anti-war protesters look like the stupid fools that they are.

	24-01-2003 17:53									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless Why should he run, if Baghdad can't be taken? If Baghdad can be taken: how?

Every city can be taken; it is just a matter of how much it will cost. If you end up in one of the warmer areas of the after life you can ask Hitler how his "Fortress Berlin" turned out for it was surely one of the most fortified cities in history.

Again there probably won't be a giant urban fight in Baghdad because you would need large numbers of soldiers who are willing to sacrific their lives just so a doomed Saddam can make a good show of it before he bows out. No, in the finest Iraqi tradition they will probably turn on him and act like the last man out is stuck with the check.

	24-01-2003 17:55									#13
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Wrongo. Chemical weapons is just an excuse. We see through it.

	24-01-2003 18:02									#14
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger That's the funnest thing I have heard in a long time.

It's not entirely clear whose post you're referring to, UR...

To take Baghdad if Saddam doesn't run, the US will have to get over its post-Vietnam "bodybag phobia". I don't think it has, yet. Even after the extreme provocation of September 11th, the US military was extremely reluctant to go head-to-head with the Taliban until the NA had basically smashed them on the ground.

So it seems that the only real plan is "let's hope the Iraquis do it for us".

	24-01-2003 18:47									#15
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

oerdin id like to see saddam use chemical weapons too, if only to make our army look stupid in the NBC suits

	24-01-2003 18:53									#16
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Step 1) Surround baghdad for a week

Step 2) Drop leaflets and continue bombing

Step 3) Watch the iraqi soldiers come out by the thousands.


Thousands of civilians saved.

Its a no brainer. You all must be playin to much civ or something. Really abstract thinking. I was just waiting for someone to say "OOO!! Bush should use that spy 2 tiles away"

	24-01-2003 18:56									#17
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

probe team it to hell!

	24-01-2003 19:01									#18
	Inflate your Upload Space

Step 4) After Saddam is gone, reconstruct the country. After Afghanistan this presumably means bombing a few wedding parties because someone said they were really Ba'ath party rallies.

Step 5) ?

Step 6) How the hell do we get out of this? Why does everyone hate us?

	24-01-2003 19:03									#19
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

6) We wont need to rebuild Iraq. Iraq is a fairly wealthy nation and can rebuild itself with its oil wealth. All that is required is

a) Cancel all Saddam-era debts
b)Lift sanctions, get that oil circulating
c)Democracy

	24-01-2003 19:10									#20
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I hate to say it but I almost hope Saddam does use his Chemical weapons once or twice since it will completely prove the case and make the anti-war protesters look like the stupid fools that they are.

no it doesn't

what it proves is that, if attacked, Saddam will use his B+C weapons. We already know that. Hence the protest.

	24-01-2003 19:32									#21
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by faded glory Step 1) Surround baghdad for a week Step 2) Drop leaflets and continue bombing Step 3) Watch the iraqi soldiers come out by the thousands.

Continue bombing with what? Leaflets?

Then take advantage of the US Army's familiarity with advanced bureaucracy to tackle the mound of paper. The Iraquis will run screaming from this unfamiliar threat.

Hmmm.

(Remember: no bombs to be dropped on civilian populations)

	24-01-2003 19:33									#22
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: what it proves is that, if attacked, Saddam will use his B+C weapons. We already know that. Hence the protest.

Orange, I guess you don't listen to the arguments of the opposers of the war. (like france )

	24-01-2003 19:35									#23
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by lightblue The Iraqi army will roll over and die. Surgical operations to take out command and control centres with the generals/colonels that have too much to lose, and the common soldier will just give up facing the far better equipped US army.

It never fails to amaze me that military and non-military 'thinkers' can spout these opinions despite the many military disasters throughout history (including very recent history) where commanders and troops have believed such drivel.

Many Iraqi troops may give up, many may not. You dont have to be a rocket scientist to realize that some Iraqi troops will perceive an attack on Baghdad as a direct threat to their families.

Surgical operations

	24-01-2003 19:40									#24
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by faded glory a) Cancel all Saddam-era debts b)Lift sanctions, get that oil circulating c)Democracy

a) the French and Russians will love that since much of the money is owed to them. (perhaps that is influencing their UN vote?)

b) do the contracts go to US companies?

c) at a recent conference there were 60 plus Iraqi opposition groups represented, most of whom hate each other only slightly less than they are against Saddam. That should make for some clear democratic decision making.

	24-01-2003 19:49									#25
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Getting back a bit closer to the original question, there are two things that keep dictators in power. One is fear - basically that people who oppose them disappear. The other is that a lot of people don't find the alternatives attractive. I haven't noticed much effort going into saying what a post-Saddam Iraq will be like and why it will be better for most Iraqis. Until then many Iraqis may well regard a US invasion as just that, invasion by a foreign power, not liberation and that means they may well fight harder than the Pentagon analysts care to contemplate.

Edit: So back the the original question - if the US forces get to the gates of Baghdad and the Iraqis don't surrender, what then?

Last edited by CerberusIV on 24-01-2003 at 19:58

	24-01-2003 19:55									#26
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless It's not entirely clear whose post you're referring to, UR...

It's about the one that Saddam disappears.

	24-01-2003 19:59									#27
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

I sorta guessed it might be...

	24-01-2003 20:04									#28
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

"Remember: no bombs to be dropped on civilian populations)"


Imo, we can do surgical strikes inflicting little civilian casualties.

"Surgical operations "

Hey, we can land those things in windows from the air. Ya there will be collarateral. But you know what, it wont warrant enough to stop the bombing. Unless, Saddam, say. Decides to use those human shields. Then its his own fault.


"
b) do the contracts go to US companies?"

No, your being mislead. the oil contracts are business deals (france and Russia w/Iraq). They will get those regardless. There etched in stone and have been for 60 years now. What im talking about is the debt. Remember the Iran-Iraq war? Iraq was 300 billion dollars in debt to Russia, France, and China in 1990. They spent all that to build that massive military that got wasted in kuwait. Hell that was why Saddam went to kuwait. He owed them 30 billion dollars and coulndt pay it. They cant be expected to pay all that back.


"a) the French and Russians will love that since much of the money is owed to them. (perhaps that is influencing their UN vote?)"

So that explains there strict anti-war stance, then, right?


"at a recent conference there were 60 plus Iraqi opposition groups represented, most of whom hate each other only slightly less than they are against Saddam. That should make for some clear democratic decision making."

Ya. So? Your looking at the bigger picture and going nuts. Im saying, cross the bridges as you get to them. First concentrate on overthrowing Saddam. Then worry about post-war Iraq.

	24-01-2003 20:05									#29
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Again there probably won't be a giant urban fight in Baghdad because you would need large numbers of soldiers who are willing to sacrific their lives just so a doomed Saddam can make a good show of it before he bows out.

You don't understand. A local TV station have sent reporters to Baghdad. The common Iraqis hate Dubya - they will fight him. They do not trust the US, not when they still want to have weddings in peace.

	24-01-2003 20:11									#30
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Reporters are full of crap UR. They always say that. You always say that. Friggin Taliban were spouting the same trash.

Ya some iraqi's might fight. But its gonna be more of a turkey shoot.

Oh ya. I think its funny how all these spontanoues "Anti-American" rallies in baghdad by 'local people' seem to be carrying an awful lot of English signs. Seeing as how English is a little known language? You know...


Its a joke.