25-01-2003 08:07									#91
	Re: Standoff at Baghdad? Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless What will happen at Baghdad?

There's a large shiite population in Bagdad - they hate Saddam, so they might be able to kill Saddam before we ever reach to baghdad. Or we could Isolate baghdad and wait it out while we disarm the rest of the country. And at that point, AFAIK, he'll be a lot less able to attack other locations with missiles, etc when confined in a city.

Or we could go in through urban fighting - slow and dangerous, but not impossible.

	25-01-2003 08:09									#92
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Let's get some facts straight. This country become crowded with weapons. Sadame relased most or nearly all his political or other prisoners. Iraqi people HATE US. They remmember every day of embargo and what do you think they would do if they would find that amount of money gifts would be VERY little. (Compare to country needs). You think that US soldiers would come to country, arrest some "war criminals", give some sucker and candy to Iraqi people and all would welcome them?

If they would turn to democracy it would be democracy with 60/100, at least, people that would do nearly EVERYTHING to pay US back. If you'd like democracy you are preparing your own doom. I think there would be puppet gov with some people like Sadam, but US would like them.

Do you have names of Iraqi puppet gov? You should. This is not thing that could be safely done at last minute.

I think Bush would like to be elected again and this is nice cover.

/still have bad grammar and poor Internet conection/

	25-01-2003 08:46									#93
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I hold up Italy, Germany, Japan, and Panama as places where the people had been taught to hate the U.S. but where we never the less were able to rebuild as democratic allies. An occupied Iraq is likely to follow a similiar pattern. First you set up a military government followed in a year or so by a provisional appointed government and finally a constitutional democracy.

All the way until the end the allies can maintain a veto option over the actions of the provisional government. That should prevent them from making any rash decisions until the country is stablized and the Saddam regime's propoganda is countered.

	25-01-2003 09:09									#94
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If American troops need to take Baghdad they will do so at night, and instead of fighting along the streets they will fight their way through the buildings, using shaped charge explosives to blow holes through walls, there by bypassing defenses.

	25-01-2003 09:45									#95
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Hmm ... well, according to an "exclusive" CBS report, the presumed war with Iraq had been pushed back to some time in mid-March and will involve 600 to 800 Tomahawk cruise missile strikes in the first two days alone, centered on Baghdad, I think. (And the cruise missile strikes are only *part* of the overall opening package.) It's part of some scheme that has a name I can't remember right now. "A-Day," is the name of the opening day of the war, but the technique described above was called something else (it involved psychological warfare). Gatekeeper

Well if we are now leaking such information to the press as part of a psychological warfare campaign, why not say something like 5000 cruise missiles per day?

Now that would really make the blood run cold.

	25-01-2003 09:59									#96
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quote: Originally posted by raghar Let's get some facts straight. This country become crowded with weapons. Sadame relased most or nearly all his political or other prisoners. Iraqi people HATE US. They remmember every day of embargo and what do you think they would do if they would find that amount of money gifts would be VERY little. (Compare to country needs). You think that US soldiers would come to country, arrest some "war criminals", give some sucker and candy to Iraqi people and all would welcome them? If they would turn to democracy it would be democracy with 60/100, at least, people that would do nearly EVERYTHING to pay US back. If you'd like democracy you are preparing your own doom. I think there would be puppet gov with some people like Sadam, but US would like them. Do you have names of Iraqi puppet gov? You should. This is not thing that could be safely done at last minute. I think Bush would like to be elected again and this is nice cover. /still have bad grammar and poor Internet conection/

Raghar, you seem to speak with personal knowledge. What country do you come from?

	25-01-2003 10:05									#97
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If you're going to make a threat then the threat has to be credable. I think there would be physical constraints to launching 5000 per day and sustaining it while retaining enough reserve missiles in supply.

There is also the matter of identifying 5000 targets that militarially justify missile stricks. It seems better to launch a couple of dozen, observe their effectiveness, then launch a few dozen more, etc...

	25-01-2003 10:19									#98
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin If you're going to make a threat then the threat has to be credable. I think there would be physical constraints to launching 5000 per day and sustaining it while retaining enough reserve missiles in supply. There is also the matter of identifying 5000 targets that militarially justify missile stricks. It seems better to launch a couple of dozen, observe their effectiveness, then launch a few dozen more, etc...

I think we told the Japanese that we would continue to obliterate one city a week until they surrendered - even though we had no nukes left.

The bluff worked.

	25-01-2003 10:28									#99
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Horse brings up some interesting questions. About the city of Baghdad itself, the majority is a Shiite shanty-town, IIRC. This would make it ripe for Iranian subversion and also unrest re Israel, etc. But it also seems to me that we could buy their allegiance cheaply with the oil money that was previously only distributed to the ruling class.

Iran is a real wild card. Interesting to see what they will do.

Last edited by DanS on 25-01-2003 at 10:39

	25-01-2003 10:40									#100
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Just because Iraq's Arabs are mostly Shi'ite doesn't mean they'd be happy to have the Iranians messing in their business. Iraq's been a pretty happy secular place, and the Iraqi women aren't about to put up with having their rights taken away (such as they have).

	25-01-2003 10:52									#101
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Actually the Iranians are already active across the border. After Afghanistan fell, they lodged a Taliban style guerilla group in Northern Iraq, which the Kurds are currently fighting with the assistance of US advisors.

Iran is not going to be idle if US forces are on their Western border.

	25-01-2003 10:53									#102
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Iran is a real wild card. Interesting to see what they will do.

I suspect they will shut up and play nice so that they do not become target #2. But you never know with those crazy mullahs.

	25-01-2003 22:11									#103
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I suspect they will shut up and play nice so that they do not become target #2. But you never know with those crazy mullahs.

I would think that they would actively support the Shi'tes in Iraq. If they did so, they would have a lot of influence in the post-Saddam government.

	26-01-2003 00:34									#104
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If I was in the Iranian's shoes, I'd probably try for a landgrab along the Iraqi border, in order to secure defensive positions before the US could grab them. Then it's a matter of reinforcing the frontier even more than it is already from the Iran-Iraq war. If the US starts *****ing about it, just tell them that 'we'll leave when you do'.

Iran is an extremely tough country, but the US might get cocky, especially since it will have Iran 'sandwiched'.

	26-01-2003 00:37									#105
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Iran is very mountainous so it would not be a very good country to modern land warfare. Best to carrot and stick them with economic terms while keeping the idea of force fresh in their minds.

	26-01-2003 00:39									#106
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The first thing we will do is try to secure the oil fields and borders of Iraq.

The territorial integrity of Iraq, at least nominally, is in the interest of Iran, which also has a sizeable Kurdish population. Two can play a game of division, should it come to that.

	26-01-2003 00:46									#107
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quote: Originally posted by DanS The first thing we will do is try to secure the oil fields and borders of Iraq.

I think securing or destroying Iraq scuds and any known location of working WMDs might take a little more priority.

	26-01-2003 00:48									#108
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edan, dont you realize that bush wants iraq to use WMDs so he can say "told ya so!"

	26-01-2003 00:58									#109
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Either way, we will do this quickly, so as to minimize Iran's occassion to sin. A matter of days once we cross the border, not weeks.

	26-01-2003 01:06									#110
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Uday, Saddam's eldest son, has threaten the US with something that would make 9/11 look like a picnic (even while denying Iraq had WoMD).

The state department has put all Americans in the world on alert to evacuate home.

It looks like the first thing we have to do is detect and defeat whatever Uday has planned.

	26-01-2003 01:11									#111
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It will only take a few hours for the Iranians to knock out some of the dents in their border with Iraq. They may try to firmly stake their claim on the Shatt al arab river, seeing as it's been disputed for centuries.

I seriously doubt that they'll challenge the US for control over some of the disputed uninhabited islands in the Gulf, however. That would be insane.

	26-01-2003 01:26									#112
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I don't think that the Iranians are stupid enough to directly challenge the US in combat.

	26-01-2003 01:31									#113
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March 3rd will be the day that the US will attack Iraq. You heard it here first.

	26-01-2003 01:42									#114
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Everyone one keeps quoting different dates. The reporters are just guessing like the rest of us.

	26-01-2003 02:01									#115
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Not True! it'll be on the 30th of February! I know it!

	26-01-2003 02:13									#116
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I wasn't quoting. I thought in my mind 31st of Feb, but since there isnt a 31st of Feb, or 30th, or 29th, so i converted it into the terms of March.

Its true tho, i dont have a clue.

	26-01-2003 04:45									#117
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Iran has actually been backing off from "US interests" lately. For instance, it has backed off in supporting its candidate over the American candidate in Afghanistan. I find it unlikely that they'll try a coup, but I do think that a democratic Iraq would have relatively friendly relations with Iran.

Then again, Shrub has undermined what little power over the Mullahs Khatami had left, so it's hard to tell what will happen.

	26-01-2003 04:51									#118
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia March 3rd will be the day that the US will attack Iraq. You heard it here first.

No way, Jose! The U.S. and whatever allies she has will begin blowing Iraq away on March 15!!!!!

Gatekeeper

	26-01-2003 06:24									#119
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Ned imagine seal. Got it? Then imagine flooding and some people with guns. Guess what, they shotted seal because they was afraid that seal could drown. I'm in that country.
No I'm too young to remember first second or third occupation, however I'm writer and I know well how some people react to some situations, and my granny remembered two occupations.


I would be more afraid of Turkey. Don't you think they have some plan with Kurds? US would do nice cover for them and Turkey...


Wow another game of date guess?
Actually end of February would be more likely. US do this actions mainly at end of the month. However, they would like to be sure about French position. /End of February? GalCiv would be released. /

	27-01-2003 23:03									#120
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel Not True! it'll be on the 30th of February! I know it!

At midnight on the morning of March 3 it is still March 2 in the US.

All predictors could be right on the date.

The last war started as I was going to the airport in Oklahoma City. The news had the green anti-aircraft fire from Baghdad and reports from the Iraqi capital on US airraids. That was aroung 5 p m. in the evening of January 15, 1991, IIRC. That would have been Jan. 16 in Iraq.