29-01-2003 01:15									#31
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quote: Will Shinui sit in govt with UTJ???

They very much might - cause UTJ aren't orthodox.
I've met with fine youth who vote for UTJ and they are nothing like orthodox.

quote: Will Labor hold out???

They might, cause it's not in their interest to show even more weakness. However Sharon will use the war in Iraq to force them in.

Fuad right now isn't that interested in joining, cause this his last chance in labour. If he flunks again - he's out.

Most of Shinui are much more moderate that Lapid

	29-01-2003 01:17									#32
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quote: Fuad right now isn't that interested in joining, cause this his last chance in labour. If he flunks again - he's out.

Fuad never had a chance with Labor. The Kibutzniks arent ready for an Iraqi leader yet.

	29-01-2003 01:19									#33
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quote: Originally posted by Sirotnikov quote: Will Shinui sit in govt with UTJ??? They very much might - cause UTJ aren't orthodox. I've met with fine youth who vote for UTJ and they are nothing like orthodox.

UTJ not ortho??? I thought UTJ was the political home of the black hats and teh chasidim, not as corrupt as shas, but still committed to haredi privileges.

	29-01-2003 01:21									#34
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quote: Originally posted by Eli quote: Fuad right now isn't that interested in joining, cause this his last chance in labour. If he flunks again - he's out. Fuad never had a chance with Labor. The Kibutzniks arent ready for an Iraqi leader yet.

	29-01-2003 01:21									#35
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Is Sarid going to resign with his speech now?

	29-01-2003 01:24									#36
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34 + 16 + 3 = 53 for Likud/shinui/YisBaliyah

need another 8 need only 5 in am ehad can fit with above (clash on economics??? or does it not matter.

Can get 5 from UTJ or NRP, without needing Shas or Labor. Or the far right.

Seems like Arik is in very good bargaining position.

	29-01-2003 01:29									#37
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Sarid Resigns!

Likud+Shinui+National Union+Yis Ba Aliya.

Secular, right-wing goverment, narrow though. That's what I prefer.

It even leaves place for the Mafdal or UTJ.

	29-01-2003 01:34									#38
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quote: UTJ not ortho??? I thought UTJ was the political home of the black hats and teh chasidim, not as corrupt as shas, but still committed to haredi privileges.

oops
confused them with mafdal - national religious

yossi sarid is the chairman of meretz

	29-01-2003 01:36									#39
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SHINUISHINUISHINUISHINUISHINUI

	29-01-2003 01:42									#40
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quote: Originally posted by Sirotnikov quote: UTJ not ortho??? I thought UTJ was the political home of the black hats and teh chasidim, not as corrupt as shas, but still committed to haredi privileges. oops confused them with mafdal - national religious yossi sarid is the chairman of meretz

Maybe we need an apolyton standard on english vs hebrew names for the parties/miflagot???

It does get confusing no one in English ever calls Likud "union party" and no one calls UTJ by their Hebrew name, though Labor/Avodah and NRP/Mafdal go both ways. Shas, Meretz, shinui and yisrael b'aliyah always go by Hebrew names, center party always went by its English name, Am ehad goes both ways, one Israel usually went by the English.

	29-01-2003 01:50									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Eli Sarid Resigns! Likud+Shinui+National Union+Yis Ba Aliya. Secular, right-wing goverment, narrow though. That's what I prefer. It even leaves place for the Mafdal or UTJ.

I don't want National Union. If Sharon is as truely moderate as some say, he doesn't either.

Likud + Shinui + Yis Ba aliyah + am ehad - a national govt for a moderate peace. But not enough MK's.
So Likud + shinui + Yis Baaliyah + am ehad + mafdal
But will mafdal break with the far right????
So Likud + Shinui + Yis Ba Aliyah + am ehad + UTJ
But can Arik reconcile Lapid and UTJ ???

So Arik maeks a very good offer to Labor - Mitzna and the Labor rank and file want "revive" in opposition, but Fuad and Peres cant resist - and point to the election results (meretz loses, shinui wins) Labor splits.
Likud + Shinui + Yisbal + am ehad + Fuad/Peres faction
A national govt for a moderate peace.

	29-01-2003 01:53									#42
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quote: Likud+Shinui+National Union+Yis Ba Aliya

Interesting, but would Shinui put up with National Union? And I thought that Sinui said that it would only take in a more boardly-based coalition...
If this does work out Shinui will have Sharon by the balls which could do a lot to give Israel a much-needed dose of secularization.

	29-01-2003 01:58									#43
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Shinui? Well, sure I'll vote for the party that says: "Let's hate everybody who's not an ultra-secular, middle-class, European (but not Russian) Jew. And, um, that's it "

	29-01-2003 02:07									#44
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BTW, I think that it will look like this:
Likud, Shinui, YBA, Haixud Haleumi, Herut... more than 60 here... Right-wing... Expect a lot of non-nice things happening.
Maybe mafdal too but not too likely mafday and shinuy.

	29-01-2003 02:10									#45
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quote: Originally posted by DaShi Low overall turn out?

Very low. About 73%, when it's usuallly about 80%.

	29-01-2003 02:18									#46
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quote: Maybe mafdal too but not too likely mafday and shinuy.

Why not? The Mafdalniks work, pay taxes and serve in the army. The perfect religious men as far as Shinui is concerned.

	29-01-2003 02:21									#47
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Any chance Mitzna will either reconsider joining a coalition, or that he'll be dropped and replaced by someone who is?

	29-01-2003 02:31									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Edan Any chance Mitzna will either reconsider joining a coalition, or that he'll be dropped and replaced by someone who is?

Lapid is quoted as saying that would happen (its clearly what he wants, and possibly what Sharon wants) Mitzna's point, IIUC is that Labor has declined because its Likud number 2, and needs to show an alternative. The heavy losses labor sustainted, and the fact that they seemed to all go to shinui and none to Meretz, would seem to make it hard to sustain this argument. And there will be oressure that Labor should put the country ahead of the party = there will even be pressure on Mitzna from abroad, from the Bush admin, from the Euros, from the socialist international (??) and probably also from American Jews - there are lots of people who dont want a narrow right wing govt, and who would wish luck to a Likud-shinui-labor govt. OTOH Mitzna can respond that as long as Arafat is there, and Sharon is there, there will be no peace anyway, and Labor is best watching a narrow govt flounder, and coming back in a couple of years with clean hands.

	29-01-2003 02:42									#49
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Hmmm... What are the chance of a nightmare scenario, that is Likud+Religious+Nat. Union?

	29-01-2003 02:44									#50
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Most of Avoda leadership doesn't want to go to unity right now.


A good bunch of Avoda and Meretz party don't get that the Israelis are saying NO to them.

They think it's got to do with sitting with Sharon or got to do with the current crisis or something.


Most of the Israeli public does not trust the current Palestinian leadership and wants a tough hand be used against them. Israel says NO to the Tunissia PLO leadership. Israel says NO to talking with terrorists. Israel says NO to the dead Oslo accords.


Eli - as far as Shinui is concerned - you're completely buying into the propoganda of Avoda.

Shinui is a liberal centrist party. It's very hard for Israelis to understand since most Israelis are social democrats, and they only see a clear cut - love them or hate them policy.

The Sharon strategy is to step slowly , without stepping on american toes, towards a small Palestinian autonomy, and complete freedom for Israel to defend itself.


And Yes - Mafdal is , for me, and for Shinui, the Perfect religious party.

Infact, if not Shinui, and if Mafdal would have been just a tad less zealous, I might just have voted for them.

National Union are fine - but they are stupid. A far right can never present themselves as such. They must hide in a sheep's clothes, and implement thier policies in strategies - not immediate moves.

Israelis want everything immediately, when long term strategies are key.

Why did we get peace with Egypt and Jordan? Long term strategies. We denied and denied and denied and crushed their influence, until they decided they are better off in peace.

	29-01-2003 03:06									#51
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CNN ARE STUPID

	29-01-2003 03:18									#52
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quote: Originally posted by Sirotnikov Most of the Israeli public does not trust the current Palestinian leadership and wants a tough hand be used against them. Israel says NO to the Tunissia PLO leadership. Israel says NO to talking with terrorists. Israel says NO to the dead Oslo accords.

No to the entire Tunisia leadership, or just to Arafat himself??? Mitzna still indicated he'd talk to Arafat, which seems to put him to the left of Bush, hardly tenable in Israel. But US policy is NOT against talking with say Abu Mazen - if Arafat is gone (or softer version, pushed upstairs to figurehead presidency) And there is plenty of room between Taba or even Camp David 2 and latest Sharon map - thats the diplomatic space Bush will pursue post Iraq, and could have been labors political space if Mitzna had not taken them quite so far to the left - could it end up being Shinui's political space - making them perhaps the long term second party in Israel, displacing Labor???

What keeps a Fuad in Labor and out of Shinui??? Anti-sephardi bigotry in Shinui? (but isnt that in Labor also?) Economics? but it has been said that doesnt matter in Israel now. Nostalgia for the old Ben Gurion/Rabin strategy of alliance with the Haredim??? Is that realistic anymore?

	29-01-2003 03:21									#53
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quote: Originally posted by Sirotnikov CNN ARE STUPID I just read their online article about the Israeli elections and there are SO MANY errors!!!!!! They got all the wrong numbers for every official figure. They mixed up all the rightwing parties. They are just ****ing stupid.

Wolf Blitzer call your office!!!!

	29-01-2003 03:55									#54
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a. avoda don't wanna spoil their ties to religious groups
b. fuad supposedly left the govt. over the budget. he can't go back if it stays the same

	29-01-2003 04:18									#55
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Congratulations to Israel for having opted for a continued period of violence, terror, supression, exploitation and no chance for improvement. When will you learn that Sharon is your worst enemy right after Hamas?

	29-01-2003 05:02									#56
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"Congratulations britain. When will you learn that Churchil is your worst enemy right after Hitler"

--


When will you learn that Israel has everything to lose if the terror continues unanswered. When will you learn that Israel has everything to lose if it begins negociating under fire. When will you learn that Israel has everything to lose if it begins giving away territory with no cessation of terror and end of conflict.

Oslo is dead. Arafat used it as a trojan horse. Accept it. Deal with it.

	29-01-2003 05:08									#57
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had a long post deleted by ie bug.

blah blah.


sharon's achievements:

1) arafat and gang delegtimized
2) israel has freedom to act in the territories and fight terrorism
3) palestinians beig to realize that israel won't go away or cave in
4) israeli american relations great
5) palestinian state reduced to temporary autonomy and reform is imminent.

	29-01-2003 07:03									#58
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My friends, let us mourn for Israel, for it's people are stupid and directionless, prefering violance, corruption and bankruptcy. We are stupid and foolish, and I am for one am very happy I'm not going to stay in this blasted country for long.

Sickening. Anyone who votes for Ariel Sharon is an idiot and should be flogged.

	30-01-2003 00:16									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Sirotnikov had a long post deleted by ie bug. blah blah. sharon's achievements: 1) arafat and gang delegtimized 2) israel has freedom to act in the territories and fight terrorism 3) palestinians beig to realize that israel won't go away or cave in 4) israeli american relations great 5) palestinian state reduced to temporary autonomy and reform is imminent.

1, 2, and 4 are not in reconcilable with 5. To take advantage of momentum of 3 will require that 5 is at most an openign bargianing position, not the end point. thats what i mean about mitzna too far to the left and sharon too far to the right. Mitzna would throw away 1 by negotiatiing with Arafat, when 4 has him on the run. Sharon will (or will he???) throw away 1-4, especially 4, on the belief that he can get 5 and give the Pals nothing more. The test for Sharon will come AFTER arafat is gone - the US will have much higher expectations for progress then - if Sharon is incapable of going beyond 5, expect a major crises, and Mitzna and Avodah to make a comeback.

That is why the kind of coalition Sharon tries to form now is so crucial.

	30-01-2003 00:22									#60
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Everyone will be much happier if Arafat suddenly dies of old age or some illness.
2 and a half years of Intifada and the Shabak/Mossad/whatever couldnt arrange some non noticeable poison?