22-02-2003 06:34									#1
	Turn 2 - Switch or Not To Switch? Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

OK, the save is with us again (turn 2).

Vast majority agrees that we shall road the game tile, then pop the hut with our Worker, delaying the warrior production in Apolyton by one turn by working less shield-valuable tiles for three turns (this trick 99% proven to prevent popping barbarians).

Now, the crucial question is: shall we switch the research from Bronze Working to Pottery?, going for the ultra-early granary in Apolyton? Dominae's impressive scenario ends up with a granary ready for the pop growth at 2->3 and two settlers produced by the turn 33. The drawback of this plan is that we would have only one warrior available for long distance exploration. (With a certain chance to get a friendly Warrior from the goody hut... according to nye's test, around 15%, if I am not mistaken).

The other possibility - basically - is to leave the research at Bronze Working and take a different approach, producing more scouting units first, delaying the construction of the granary til a bit later (making it ready for the pop growth 3->4). This plan (his variations) makes it slightly possible that we get Pottery from the goody hut (the probability is believed to be around 10%).

I myself do not dare to say which plan is better. Most probably, it depends on which style you prefer - if you value as many settlers cranked out as possible, Dominae's ultra-early granary scenario will suit your taste. If you fear running on two warriors only for 20+ turns, thinking about missed goody huts and poorer intelligence about your surroundings, you might not quite like the ultra-early granary.

Now, go read all those great discussions, especially BFM's Analysis of the Interior and E_T's Build Plans, plus more discussions in other active threads.

Go read them all and vote. Switch to Pottery? Or stay on Bronze Working?

Better vote fast, as the save is already with us and we shall play our turn within a couple of hours.

	22-02-2003 06:57									#2
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Please give me some time to test whether having warriors built by other teams makes it possible to get warriors from huts before you start roading. I'm about to set up a test scenario. Also, do you have any way of confirming whether all the other teams have founded a city yet in case my test results indicate that we might want to go ahead and pop the hut after all? (Sorry if this isn't the best place to post this, but the faster I post this, the faster I can get started on my test.)

Nathan

	22-02-2003 06:59									#3
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I support Dominae's turn 33 2 city and a settler (3 City) plan. 3 cities by turn 36 with a completed Granery in a Settler pump will be far more valuable than 2 cities and more warriors. For this we need to switch to Pottery.

	22-02-2003 07:00									#4
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Would someone please summarize the arguments for and against each option?

I know the issue is deep and complex, and I don't have the time to read all those replies in those threads.

	22-02-2003 07:02									#5
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay Please give me some time to test whether having warriors built by other teams makes it possible to get warriors from huts before you start roading. I'm about to set up a test scenario.

Please be quick.

quote: Also, do you have any way of confirming whether all the other teams have founded a city yet in case my test results indicate that we might want to go ahead and pop the hut after all? (Sorry if this isn't the best place to post this, but the faster I post this, the faster I can get started on my test.) Nathan

4 other capitols will appear on F11. If the 3 teams who do not appear have power > 0, then all teams have settled.

/Edit. 4 capitols other than ours.

	22-02-2003 07:16									#6
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whew... this is a though one.

UU or Garany......
Hmmmmmm

	22-02-2003 07:20									#7
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I just ran a test (SP, debug mode, restless barbs, and a bunch of huts lined up in a row), and even with Egypt starting with warriors on the same continent, I didn't get any barbs in quite a few runs. (I was running with "preserve random seed" turned off.)

Nathan

	22-02-2003 07:22									#8
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Having Bronze Working is not the same thing as actually having Numidian Mercenaries. To get Numidians, we'd have to come up with 30 shields of production that we don't have a more urgent need for elsewhere, and I don't see that happening quickly in any case.

	22-02-2003 07:24									#9
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I'm working on a compromise solution. I'll provide more details in a while. But it will require changing to Pottery.

E_T

P.S. I have already voted but I may change my vote, after I get done with this new spreadsheet

E_T

	22-02-2003 08:20									#10
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If we don't change to Pottery, we'll lose a few shields due to being unable to complete our granary until after we research Pottery. Even if we don't go with Dominae's plan to delay our third warrior about 10 turns in order to get a granary faster (and hence essentially get an extra pop point), I think the shields we'd lose trying to time a granary right if we research Bronze Working first are worth more than the gold we'd lose switching to Pottery. (An alternative to wasting shields would be to build a barracks before our granary, but the impact that would have on when we can build our first settler would be considerable.)

Nathan

	22-02-2003 08:34									#11
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They say there are three types of lies.
1. Lies
2. Damn Lies
3. Satistics



I am in awe of all of my fine collegues who can run simulations and come up with some of the most brilliant spreadsheets I have seen. However, one of the Carthages main weaknesses is that they are slow to get going. If we end up with the GhengisFarb Persians, the reckless Fraxis Egyptions, or the militaristic Chinese as close neighbours, they may be willing to have an early war with us. They will know that once we start producing our UU's we will be hard to stop.

So...my choice is to set up our defenses first.
This means bronze working & our UU.

I choose this by not looking at statistics which fail to take into account aggresive human behaviour, but by using common sense.

Upon choosing the Carthage as our civ, we spoke about "flying under the radar".
Fast expansion because of an early grainery will only attract attention. We are better off just keeping pace. Protecting ourselves. Choosing allies. And joining wars only when we have the alliances.

	22-02-2003 09:09									#12
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Oops, I posted in the wrong thread.

Obviously I voted for 'Pottery'.

vondrack: I'm impressed by your leadership. It is nice to see you presenting the options in such a neutral manner. I know I've been insistent on this issue, but this is only because I believe it to be an important one.

Nathan: I ran similar tests. We will never get Barbs from the Hut if we do not control a military unit (only us). All other possibilities remain. If switch to Pottery and if we get a tech from the Hut, it will definitely be Ceremonial Burial.

Now for the fun part: imagine if we got a Settler!! I my tests this was not that infrequent an occurrence. We could be off to an amazing start (who needs Expansionist!!?).


Dominae

	22-02-2003 09:15									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Hot_Enamel However, one of the Carthages main weaknesses is that they are slow to get going.

Not sure I understand why...Slower than the Chinese maybe if they Archer-rush us, but definitely faster than the Egyptians or Persians. Industrious coupled with a UU that requires no strategic resource is pretty fast, if you ask me.

quote: If we end up with the GhengisFarb Persians, the reckless Fraxis Egyptions, or the militaristic Chinese as close neighbours, they may be willing to have an early war with us. They will know that once we start producing our UU's we will be hard to stop.

This is where our diplomats step up to the plate. Honestly, I have no idea what the "tone" of this game will be? Are people willing to play a smart, strong game, or do all the teams just want to get at each other's threats. If we can convince our neighbors that we're more use to them alive that dead (which is true 90% of the time), we're sitting pretty. I just hope you're wrong and that this will not be that hard to do.


Dominae

	22-02-2003 09:28									#14
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If you want a race that takes time to get going, look at Persia. They have to research a cost six (in the editor) tech and then find and connect an iron source before they can build their UU. We should have little trouble getting both Pottery and Bronze Working by the time they do all that.

Egypt is a little faster, but the tech they have to research to build their UU isn't a whole lot cheaper than Pottery and Bronze Working combined (cost 4 in the editor, vs. cost 2 for Pottery and 3 for Bronze Working). And they have to connect horses.

A Chinese archer rush could certainly be a serious danger, but until China gets Bronze Working and builds some spearmen in addition to archers, warriors could actually be a more cost-efficient defense than Numidian Mercenaries. Just attack the archers before they get to attack us, and any terrain bonus the archers get would be more than offset by the fact that our warriors are half the price of their archers. And preemptive attacks against archers with our warriors wouldn't blow our GA the way using Numidians would.

And one other thing: more cities means more unit production capacity when we do get Bronze Working. The importance of that would be very hard to overrate.

There will be a brief period near the beginning when researching Pottery first will undercut our defenses. But in the long term, it will leave us in a much stronger defensive position.

	22-02-2003 09:30									#15
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

And by the way, the fact that statistics can be used to lie by no means implies that all statistics are lies. When used properly, statistics are a tool of truly enormous value.

	22-02-2003 09:33									#16
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

this is the results of 2 sets of calculations, I will run one more for one other possibility

The two Sets:
1) 5 Warriors, Settler, Granary, then multiple NM/Settler combos - this has us cutting the Forrest at teh game down and mining it while building the Granary. The would have us stay the same tech, 2 warrior for defence, 3 for explore.

2) 3 Warriors, Granary, warrior, settler, then Multiple NM/Settler combos - this would also have the forrest at the game cut down while building the granary. This requires changing the tech, 1 warrior for defence, 2 to explore (then a warrior/settler combo).

I will give full details in 2 following posts, but here are the quick details:

1) first settler built on turn 22 (2950BC), Granary built on turn 36 (2350BC), first NM/Settler combo is ready on turn 46 (10 turns), other combos on turns 54 (8 turns), 62 (8 turns), 69 (7 turns), 76 (7 turns). Trade Generated over 76 turns = 351.

2) Granary built on turn 24 (2850BC), Warrior/Settler combo built on turn 31 (2550BC), first NM/Settler combo is ready on turn 39 (8 turns), other combos on turns 46 (7 turns), 53 (7 turns), 61 (8 turns), 68 (7 turns), 75 (7 turns). Trade Generated over 76 turns = 379.

Option 2 has the first city built 9 turns later than option 1, but it allows for a greater number of NM/Settler combos (one more) than Option 1 does.

Pros & Cons:
Option 1
Pros: 1 more warrior for exploration, next city is built sooner
Cons: Not as many NM/Settler combos over the long haul, less trade over time.

Option 2
Pros: More NM/Settler combos over the long haul, greater trade.
Cons: Less expolration, next city is built later.


Over the long haul, which is what this game really works from, Option 2 is better. More trade, more cities generated but less exploration. Again, this option requires changing to Pottery this turn.

E_T

Please Note, that Option #2 is a compromise solution, which gives us 1 more warrior at teh start from what Dominae had proposed.

	22-02-2003 09:37									#17
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Please change my vote from BW first to Pottery first

E_T

	22-02-2003 09:44									#18
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay And by the way, the fact that statistics can be used to lie by no means implies that all statistics are lies. When used properly, statistics are a tool of truly enormous value.

Absolutely

	22-02-2003 11:22									#19
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NOW... we are getting scary.

	22-02-2003 11:29									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus NOW... we are getting scary.

I hope so.

	22-02-2003 14:45									#21
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Do we really want to crank out 30-shield Numidians without a barracks first? That seems like a pretty lousy investment to me. In terms of total hit points' worth of Numidians, a barracks would pay for itself in the first four. Granted, there's an upkeep cost to the barracks, but I have a serious allergy to producing regulars of anything more expensive than warriors if I can reasonably help it.

	22-02-2003 15:30									#22
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quote: Originally posted by E_T this is the results of 2 sets of calculations, I will run one more for one other possibility The two Sets: 1) 5 Warriors, Settler, Granary, then multiple NM/Settler combos - this has us cutting the Forrest at teh game down and mining it while building the Granary. The would have us stay the same tech, 2 warrior for defence, 3 for explore. 2) 3 Warriors, Granary, warrior, settler, then Multiple NM/Settler combos - this would also have the forrest at the game cut down while building the granary. This requires changing the tech, 1 warrior for defence, 2 to explore (then a warrior/settler combo).

I like Number one better because we cannot count on not making contact with another civ, thus we need some sort of defense early on ( 2 warriors at home compared to 1)

Also with 3 warriors exploring we're more likely to find huts and we all know the benefits there. If we get lucky with a few huts, who knows we could change our build order for the first 10 or so turns.

I guess I'd like to play it safe with the chance of gaining a few things through exploration. It would really suck to be sitting in the capital and watching 2 or 3 archers come marching up to our lonely warrior.

	22-02-2003 16:20									#23
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Just to make sure nobody gets confused:

It has been decided to switch the production from Bronze Working to Pottery on Turn 2, adopting Dominae's ultra-early granary plan. Voting in this poll will have no effect any more, as the Turn 2 was played and passed on to the next team.

	22-02-2003 17:02									#24
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Last edited by Hot_Enamel on 22-02-2003 at 17:35

	22-02-2003 22:48									#25
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Wow, it didn't take long to get to turn 2.

	22-02-2003 23:43									#26
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Yes, I agree. I was quite surprised myself.
The whole turn took 22:49 hours, according to the time counter.