25-02-2003 20:38									#1
	Whatever is wrong with #2: Calling it a War for Oil Get a bigger avatar today!

I can't see why this is so incredible. Litsen.

Rumsfeld, Rice and the rest of the Washington foreign policy elite are all highly trained academics in the Realist school, or at least have such people working for them. Part of the basic structure of this school is that domestic policy is secondary in ensuring the survival of the state to foreign policy, and that States should only do what is in their self-interest to survive in a competetive IR environment.

Therefore the "saving the Iraqi people" excuse is clearly entirely irrelevant. Also, most foreign-policy analysts would agree that Iraq poses no immediate threat to the US itself. Only long-tern, regional strategic interests are at stake.

The only reason anyone could want to ensure US strategic interests are achieved in the infertile, low-population tactically unimportant appendix that is the middle east is Oil. Certainly every time a major power in the 20th century has made a grab for the middle east it's been about getting to the Oil*, and even if the US doesn't need it they certainly don't want potential future enemies getting to it.

What's strange about that? It makes perfectly clear sense, and sure they're cutting a few corners here and there to make it sound snappier but it's hardly worse than many other euphemisms, from Affirmative Action to Pro-Life.

*Except that one time it was about the Suez canal. Um.

	25-02-2003 20:50									#2
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If it's just about oil, damn the environmentalists and open up ANWAR. Given that the Iraqis ship most of their oil to Europe, one could concievably argue that you are conducting "Resistance For Oil."

	25-02-2003 20:53									#3
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quote: Originally posted by JohnT If it's just about oil, damn the environmentalists and open up ANWAR. Given that the Iraqis ship most of their oil to Europe, one could concievably argue that you are conducting "Resistance For Oil."

So true... and it also seems you could call it "Resistance for illegal WOMD contracts because we are greedy and don't give a damn about anybody else"

	25-02-2003 20:59									#4
	Re: Whatever is wrong with #2: Calling it a War for Oil Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by Buck Birdseed I can't see why this is so incredible. Litsen.

War for oil doesn't make any sense. Remove the sanctions and Baghdad would be over joyed to sell the stuff to us.

	25-02-2003 21:08									#5
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Well I don't see why it is that incredible as well...

Resources are simply one of the most important factors of a successful state...

Civilizations emerged due to the fact that certain groups controlled the bronze traderoutes etc.. same thing later with iron...

Why do you think Athens became so wealthy, despite the fact that Attica has the most infertile soil of Greece? They simply had the silver mines in the Laurium (IIRC) mountains nearby...

Success is based on the possession of resources!! Saudi Arabia is rich because of its oil!

I mean are you so naive that you cannot see that these oil deposits would be very handy for the US? They don't want to be dependant on other countries, and keep in control of the world, so that alone is reason enough to get that oil...

quote: War for oil doesn't make any sense. Remove the sanctions and Baghdad would be over joyed to sell the stuff to us.

the keyword is "sell" here.. it would still make the US dependant on other countries

	25-02-2003 21:09									#6
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"I mean are you so naive that you cannot see that these oil deposits would be very handy for the US? They don't want to be dependant on other countries, and keep in control of the world, so that alone is reason enough to get that oil..."

And are you so naive as to not realize that currently, Europe is the largest benefactor of Saddams largesse, therefore rendering your governments arguments re: "no more war" to be no less than a self-serving lie?

To quote my grandfather: tsk-tsk.

	25-02-2003 21:10									#7
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Hey Snapcase.

Why not consider the arguments put forward for war first by the US and UK (interesting articles in the latest article of the Economist if you fancy reading something that isn' just left-wing trash).

If these arguments are satisfactory, then if oil IS an issue, this can only be another reason for war.

If the US are after securing cheaper oil, then the only point in doing this this is if it would help its economy. You help the US economy and you help the world economy. The main reason for sluggish world growth is sluggish American growth.

Cut off a source of oil for the US and you are harming developing nations. One of the greatest examples of cutting off your nose to spite your face in the political world are the left-wingers chanting against war "because it's about oil".

Wake up.

	25-02-2003 21:11									#8
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Incidentally, I posted a realist's opinion on the coming Iraq war awhile ago in a thread called "Unnecessary War?".

	25-02-2003 21:12									#9
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quote: War for oil doesn't make any sense. Remove the sanctions and Baghdad would be over joyed to sell the stuff to us.

I doubt that he would probably put the screw to us and charge much higher prices. And which is easier to control a nutty dictator or your own puppet government.

	25-02-2003 21:12									#10
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quote: nd are you so naive as to not realize that currently, Europe is the largest benefactor of Saddams largesse?

France and Russia are the largest benefactors... and besides, we haven't got any troubles with being dependant on other countries, i don't give a **** anyway...

to quote your grandfather: tsk, tsk

	25-02-2003 21:13									#11
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"Given that the Iraqis ship most of their oil to Europe"

"Europe is the largest benefactor of Saddams largesse?"

Fascinating. Source? (And I mean statistics, not editorials)

	25-02-2003 21:14									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Trajanus the keyword is "sell" here.. it would still make the US dependant on other countries

Now you're just being stupid to the nth degree if you can not show any credible source that says the US plans to annex Iraq.

quote: I doubt that he would probably put the screw to us and charge much higher prices.

I doubt he would as well.

	25-02-2003 21:17									#13
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quote: If the US are after securing cheaper oil, then the only point in doing this this is if it would help its economy. You help the US economy and you help the world economy. The main reason for sluggish world growth is sluggish American growth.

Well well, time for you to wake up I reckon. so we should give oil control in your hands, is that what you are saying, to give you more power? right? or what do you mean then..

Besides, perhaps you haven't noticed, but there just miiiight be other reasons for your sluggish economy... something Bush is absolutely not concerned with, I have the impression.. all he does is bark about a war on iraq, with a few tax cuts in between.... oh yeah that's some real management on helping your economy!

Also, if you were allowed to better your economy, and get oil very cheaply, then why doesn't Germany, and the UK and China etc don't invade other countries to get their oil cheaper?? Becuase they have more common sense i guess!

	25-02-2003 21:19									#14
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quote: Now you're just being stupid to the nth degree if you can not show any credible source that says the US plans to annex Iraq.

What the bloody hell does this got to do with it? Who said anything about annexing Iraq?

	25-02-2003 21:19									#15
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Well if it is about Oil, why didn't we keep it when we liberated Kuwait?

	25-02-2003 21:20									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Trajanus Also, if you were allowed to better your economy, and get oil very cheaply, then why doesn't Germany, and the UK and China etc don't invade other countries to get their oil cheaper?? Becuase they have more common sense i guess!

Nahhhh... Germany found a better way... just sell Iraq illegal means of constructing WOMD for big bucks

	25-02-2003 21:23									#17
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The problem is that Saddam can finance gigantic armies with oil money. This makes him a threat to take the whole region by force. He has actually stated this as his ultimate goal, IIRC. With the whole of the region's oil under his control, he then becomes a threat to Europe and the USA. As well, Israel is toast.

	25-02-2003 21:23									#18
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quote: Well if it is about Oil, why didn't we keep it when we liberated Kuwait?

Because that was at that time not the goal of the mission...
The thing was to liberate Kuwait... that's to what I have heard also the reason why they didn't invade Baghdad.. It was not part of their mission.
At least so I was told.

	25-02-2003 21:27									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Trajanus Who said anything about annexing Iraq?

You did when you said that the US didn't want to buy oil from other countries because it would make it dependent on them hence your objection to the word sell.

	25-02-2003 21:27									#20
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quote: The problem is that Saddam can finance gigantic armies with oil money

Gigantic armies... armies of no worth you mean... on top of that the morale of the regular troops is so low they will hardly fight anyway, at least with the absolutely crappy equipment they have..

Also all his wars up till now were not a success, which already shows that he is an incapable stupid moron.. the war on Iraq for example was a fiasco! Against the advice of his officers he made decisions that proved desastrous to the Iraqis...

Clearly he is a bad military leader and I for one wouldn't fear him too much... A big army doesn't necessarily mean it's a good one

	25-02-2003 21:27									#21
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Trajanus,

quote: Well well, time for you to wake up I reckon. so we should give oil control in your hands, is that what you are saying, to give you more power? right? or what do you mean then..

What I am saying is that the case for war has been made, If oil is a small factor that might help the US then it only increases the case for war - so effectively those who are against war are arguing against themselves.

Nice doublethink.

quote: Besides, perhaps you haven't noticed, but there just miiiight be other reasons for your sluggish economy...

Britain is one of the fastest growing large economies right now, thank you. And yes, there are other reasons, but a pick-up in American growth levels increases world growth levels, helping the UK..

World growth grows, then developing countries grow faster. Is this something you are against?

quote: Also, if you were allowed to better your economy, and get oil very cheaply, then why doesn't Germany, and the UK and China etc don't invade other countries to get their oil cheaper??

If they had a reason for attacking a country, like the US has agaisnt Iraq, then any additional by-product of such a war is to their beneift. So what?

The whole "it's all about oil" crap is nothing but blatant anti-Americanism.

	25-02-2003 21:29									#22
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quote: You did when you said that the US didn't want to buy oil from other countries because it would make it dependent on them hence your objection to the word sell.

I never mentioned annexing... What they could do is, like now with the Saudis, have very interesting deals concerning the sell of oil... So beneficial deals for the US, I'm not so stupid as to think America would actually own the country, lol

	25-02-2003 21:33									#23
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quote: World growth grows, then developing countries grow faster.

Yeah true, but a slight correction: World growth grows, then "the top class of the" developing countries grow faster

The wealth of western nations has increased in the last decades, but you think the wealth of an average Sierra Leonian has increased? I don't think so..

quote: Britain is one of the fastest growing large economies right now, thank you

Ah well I thought you were American.... lemme rephrase that then: Besides, perhaps you haven't noticed, but there just miiiight be other reasons for "the American" sluggish economy...

	25-02-2003 21:41									#24
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quote: but you think the wealth of an average Sierra Leonian has increased? I don't think so..

3% growth in 2001.

	25-02-2003 21:46									#25
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3% growth in one year, big deal for a regular Sierra Leonian, they have nothing anyway, everything is in the greedy hands of the upper class... the growth is actually a reflection on how they are faring, not a simple farmer...

This is pointless anyway.. bye

	25-02-2003 21:49									#26
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "Given that the Iraqis ship most of their oil to Europe" "Europe is the largest benefactor of Saddams largesse?" Fascinating. Source? (And I mean statistics, not editorials)

The source is my trolling spirit. But you are right... a "back of the envelope" analysis shows that in 2002, 20% of the US crude imported from the Gulf comes from Iraq, whereas Europe gains 10% of its Persian Gulf oil from Iraq.

My apologies. Usually I try not to get involved in these debates because I tend to do it backwards - make my point, then research to see if it's true. Perhaps I've been on these boards too long and everybody else's bad habits have corrupted me ...

Sources: US Oil Import Statistics. PDF document.

European Oil Import Statistics. MS Excel Document.

Do note that the European statistics end in October, and the US statistics end in November 2002 so a direct comparison between totals isn't possible (I just deducted the US November statistics to get the above figures). I will note that EU Iraqi oil imports have been trending upward since April, while the US trends have been downward. Somewhat.

	25-02-2003 21:51									#27
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But then, if the US is already getting Iraqi oil (20% of US Persian Gulf imports), then that doesn't really buttress the argument that the US is doing this to get their hands on Iraqi oil.

	25-02-2003 21:55									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Trajanus What they could do is, like now with the Saudis, have very interesting deals concerning the sell of oil...

That would still involve the "evil" word buying and according to you make them dependent on Iraq.

	25-02-2003 21:57									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Trajanus 3% growth in one year, big deal for a regular Sierra Leonian, they have nothing anyway, everything is in the greedy hands of the upper class... the growth is actually a reflection on how they are faring, not a simple farmer... This is pointless anyway.. bye

Over a decade adds more than a third to income.

	25-02-2003 22:00									#30
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arf, no, I mean, they would have much influence on the democratic regime that will be installed there, they get better deals etc, so they won't be dependant on other countries, as they control the regime anyway, to some extent of course, not entirely



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