11-03-2003 11:26									#61
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quote: Originally posted by Kramerman just becasue you are cynical, doesnt mean Bush has no vision. Could there ever be a president that would please you?

McCain, Liebermann, Edwards, Bob Kerrey, Nickles, hell, even Bush sr. - I could come up with quite a few, from both parties.

Bush having a vision isn't a problem - he had lots of them in the 60's, no doubt. It's the content of the vision, and it's correlation to the harsh realities of this universe, where things get to be sticky.

	11-03-2003 12:02									#62
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quote: Originally posted by DanS ef: I would be interested in how that number is disaggregated.

Military Equipment: $80.8bn
(Purchase of ships, planes, tanks, electronics, software etc)

Wages: $102.1bn for military personnel, $52.3bn for civilian

Research & Development: $42bn

Consumables: $11.5bn
(Fuel, Ammunition etc)

Rest: $158.8bn
This is mainly 'services' such as Support of Weapons, Installations & Personel, Transport. It also includes Investment in Structures

	11-03-2003 12:57									#63
	Re: How long will it take to repair the damge to America done by the Bush regime Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara The economy's in the tank. Okay, that's not really his fault, up to a point. However, two of his policies were terrible for the economy.

Tax cuts usually cause short term pain in exchange for long term gain. By lowering the cost of investment and doing business, they expand the economy and allow the government to collect more taxes long term. The tax revenues enjoyed in the 90īs were at least partially the result of Reaganīs tax cuts. Of course, the person who is in office 10 years form now will get credit for any possible good results of this tax cut.

War fears will of course cause short term economic loss. But look to the long term. If this war is really about imperialism and oil, as the lefties and anti-americans claim, them we will come out of it sitting on and controlling huge reserves. That has to be good for the economy. (I donīt believe that the war is about oil, but if you do you must concede that oil would make us rich if we really were to be imperialists.)

quote: Two, Bush has almost completely destroyed America's relationship with the rest of the world.

No arguments there. While I believe that, legalistically, we are entirely correct and justified in most of our actions, the handling of it has been atrocious. The Kyoto Protocol is a pile of garbage, but we could have pulled out of it a but more diplomatically. Same with the current mess, current resolutions and treaties give us the legal right to attack but the diplomacy has been horrible.

But I think that the long-term damage will be surprisingly small, since most of the anti-Americanism is actually anti-Bush sentiment, which will go away when he does.

quote: Three, civil rights:

I heard all of the same things when Clinton passed his anti-terrorism bill, except of course back them the right-wingers were the ones complaining about the abuses of government power. We didnīt turn into a police state then, and I donīt think we will now. But maybe Iīm just the proverbial frog in the pot. Only time will tell.

I supported McCain, by the way.

edit: typos

	11-03-2003 13:16									#64
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quote: Originally posted by Richard Bruns By lowering the cost of investment and doing business, they expand the economy and allow the government to collect more taxes long term. The tax revenues enjoyed in the 90īs were at least partially the result of Reaganīs tax cuts.

No, interest rates (cost of investment) increase. Furthermore, deficits cost in the long run because the government has to pay interest on the debt.

	11-03-2003 14:11									#65
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quote: Originally posted by DuncanK And I doubt if China will ever reach the economic strength that people are assuming they will. They have serious problems. I'm suprised they have made it this far.

I think China's government is too paranoid to let China really become the humongous world power people are predicting. It's hard to maintain a rigid dictatorship and be a major world player. I think the Soviet Union got "lucky" because of timing.





*edit for typos

	11-03-2003 17:32									#66
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BunnyGrrl SIGHTING!! +1

When Bush is voted out in 2004, the economy will really recover once the government gets rid of all his stupid tax cuts and start showing surpluses again. I just feel sorry for whoever is going to be in office 2004 because he'll have to call up all the world leaders and say, "Sorry about that other guy. We're under new management now."

	11-03-2003 17:38									#67
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quote: Originally posted by Sava BunnyGrrl SIGHTING!! +1 I just feel sorry for whoever is going to be in office 2004 because he'll have to call up all the world leaders and say, "Sorry about that other guy. We're under new management now."

Maybe they can send apple pies. mcd's usually have a two for one deal.

	11-03-2003 17:43									#68
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Nah, McDonalds are everywhere now. Maybe we can send them something from Wendy's 99cent menu.

	11-03-2003 17:46									#69
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FROSTY UBER ALLES!

	11-03-2003 19:20									#70
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It will be easy to heal the wounds Bush inflicted to US relations with other governments. It will be much more difficult and long to heal the wounds Bush inflicted to the US image in the world's population. Not everyone is eager to agree the sheer arrogance and bloodthirstiness he showed was a feat of his administration, rather than America.
A very long and efficient PR campaign will be needed to restore the image of America as the country of the "good guys".
Only Americans believe they are the good guys now.

	11-03-2003 19:37									#71
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Economy: as Che said, not Bush's fault, but he isn't helping. I'd agree with that assessment.

International Relations: So-so policy, terrible execution of that policy. The Bushies essentially gave the rest of the world the finger.

Civil Liberties: Now that we're out of 9/11 shock, I think we will see more and more opposition to draconian security laws.

-Arrian

	11-03-2003 19:49									#72
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"Now that we're out of 9/11 shock, I think we will see more and more opposition to draconian security laws."

I'm extremely pessimistic (even by my standards) on this. There will be further attacks; I think the Bush admin's policies virtually guarantee something even bigger than 9/11. And then the big question is whether the constitution will go to the shredder (its contents, to be more precise).

	11-03-2003 19:51									#73
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the sad thing is so many people on the right support restrictions of freedom to protect freedom (this was in the words of someone on another forum)

	11-03-2003 20:12									#74
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Great post, Che, dead-on.

The damage to allied relations and antagonizement of the Arab world will be long in healing, as will the swaggering, go-it-alone American charicature-come-true, as others noted.

(Remembering Che furiously ringing the alarm bell about Ashcroft during his nomination..)

Last edited by mindseye on 11-03-2003 at 20:20

	11-03-2003 20:18									#75
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quote: Originally posted by MRT144 the sad thing is so many people on the right support restrictions of freedom to protect freedom (this was in the words of someone on another forum)

The funny thing is that some of the most extreme conservatives are PO'd about the PATRIOT ACT, including folks like Phyllis Schlaffly (or however it's spelled).

	11-03-2003 20:22									#76
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Except for specific problem areas (health, social security) the economy will do just fine if not meddled with. This is the one piece of advice that Robert Solow got into Clinton's head at the start of his first term. Clinton largely followed this advice, and for that he deserves credit. (Yup, you heard it here first. )

I think we will be able to patch things up with Europe in four or five years, once we get rid of our "bull in a china shop" diplomacy, and Europe realizes that their somewhat inflexible economy won't be able to drive the whole world by itself. In short, we really do need each other.

Its going to take a generation to undo the damage we are about to do to our relations with the Arab world. Maybe less if the Israeli-Pal problem gets solved, but thats down the road. The real problem is whether ME demographics, poverty, religion blow the whole thing to hell long before it gets fixed.

	11-03-2003 20:28									#77
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The real problem is whether ME demographics, poverty, religion blow the whole thing to hell long before it gets fixed.

I'm convinced that in most part, this war is about demographics. Iraq has, by far, the highest proportion of young people to the general populace in the Middle East. If the status quo is continued, then we have a powder keg on our hands in 10 or so years.

	11-03-2003 20:55									#78
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Actually, Che, the Iraq crisis has showed us who are our true friends and who are not. This has helped the world to clarify itself. Clearly, France and Germany want to lead Europe in a path separate from the US. This has nothing to do with Bush.

The events in Iraq will, IMO, help transfrom the Arab states from a group of backward societies into the modern democracies. I can't stay the way it is forever. Reform had to start somewhere. Iraq is that place.

As to the Patriot Act, it was passed by a Democrat Senate. What are we to think? That this is an Imperial EDICT?

	11-03-2003 22:05									#79
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Sitting here in the UK, all I can see is a one-sided and costly "friendship" with America. Our opinions only matter when they are the same as Bush's. Decades of friendship, unconditional solidarity after 9/11, and we got screwed. You told us to f**k off on Kyoto, the ICC, global warming, steel tariffs, WTO rulings, and the latest bit of news is that not a single British company has been consulted on contracts for rebuilding Iraq. Our PM is so busy playing poodle that he's signed his political death certificate.

So it's going to take a long time to undo the foreign damage Bush has done. Yeah, in a few years you can be all friendly with the governments again. There's an entire generation coming up who've only seen America take and never give. You're gonna find yourself without any friends soon.

	11-03-2003 22:11									#80
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Now, now. That damage may only get really set if Bush is re-elected. If we (hopefully) dump Bush in 2004, maybe Europeans will see it as an American repudiation of his negligent idiocy and we can patch things up more quickly.

Ahhh, wouldn't that be nice?

	11-03-2003 22:17									#81
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov If we (hopefully) dump Bush in 2004, maybe Europeans will see it as an American repudiation of his negligent idiocy and we can patch things up more quickly.

But they'll always be aware that it could happen again. After all, it's not like we elected the guy, he was forced upon us.

	11-03-2003 22:19									#82
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I'm experiencing melodrama overload...

	11-03-2003 22:19									#83
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"The first step is admitting you have a problem."

There are a lot of people out ther who support Reaganomics and "my way or the highway" diplomacy. Repairs won't happen very quickly if no one thinks they need to happen.

	11-03-2003 22:20									#84
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Just waiting for March 17th. yeah

Let this be a lesson to the rest of the world.

	11-03-2003 22:30									#85
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Adam Smith,

They will surely 'mess' with the economy once it starts acting up. The days of riding out the storm are gone. That was a different generation and their theories proved wrong. They will mess with it and they will surely mess it up good.

	11-03-2003 22:36									#86
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Actually, Che, the Iraq crisis has showed us who are our true friends and who are not. This has helped the world to clarify itself. Clearly, France and Germany want to lead Europe in a path separate from the US. This has nothing to do with Bush.

A path separate from the US, or a path separate from where the US is currently heading?

quote: The events in Iraq will, IMO, help transfrom the Arab states from a group of backward societies into the modern democracies. I can't stay the way it is forever. Reform had to start somewhere. Iraq is that place.

Two points here - arab resentment of western-imposed "reform" will be extremely high among the many "have nots" that won't be the beneficiaries of that reform, and arab "gratitude" will be non-existent among many of the groups empowered and legitimized by reforms. Do you honestly think that organized fundamentalist political parties will be grateful to us for setting up a system that allows them to act politically?

Second, our "allies" in the region are the oppressive thugs who have held down lefties, fundies, and just about everyone inconvenient to their and our interest. In "reforming" the arab world, we'll be undercutting or eliminating the power of our lackeys. That type of reform didn't work real well (although it was internally imposed) in Iran in the 1970's.

quote: As to the Patriot Act, it was passed by a Democrat Senate. What are we to think? That this is an Imperial EDICT?

The Patriot Act was passed by both houses of Congress, but was de facto written by the administration, gives powers to the executive branch, and was packaged and heavily promoted, from the name on, to be essentially unopposable in the immediate post-9/11 atmosphere of "you're either with us, or you're with the terrorists." The basic premise of the Patriot Act's marketing was a lie that would make Goebbels proud - we did not need expanded police powers to stop 9/11, and we didn't suffer 9/11 from a lack of those powers.

The identified intelligence failures were huge, and fell into three main categories which are untouched by Patrion: Lack of communication between agencies, (FBI & CIA, plus failures by Rice and the NSC), bureaucratic hindrance of field personnel by headquarters (FBI field offices being denied authority to investigate), and failure to follow established proceedures (INS processing of visas)

	11-03-2003 22:46									#87
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'Two points here - arab resentment of western-imposed "reform" will be extremely high among the many "have nots" that won't be the beneficiaries of that reform'

there's not a whole lot of love out there today...

	11-03-2003 22:46									#88
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MtG is absolutely right. There is no hope for anything good to come from this war. We should be lucky if its not a complete disaster.

	11-03-2003 22:52									#89
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quote: Originally posted by DuncanK MtG is absolutely right. There is no hope for anything good to come from this war. We should be lucky if its not a complete disaster.

so things are good the way they are now?

	11-03-2003 23:01									#90
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Two points here - arab resentment of western-imposed "reform" will be extremely high among the many "have nots" that won't be the beneficiaries of that reform, and arab "gratitude" will be non-existent among many of the groups empowered and legitimized by reforms. Do you honestly think that organized fundamentalist political parties will be grateful to us for setting up a system that allows them to act politically?

Western-imposed reform taken by itself would cause a lot of resentment. I think the goal is to marry that reform with bricks and mortar on a massive scale immediately.