22-03-2003 12:15									#61
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quote: There would be a very real possibility of war in the region in order to prevent that, especially from the Chinese. No way in hell would they stand for that.

It wouldn't matter. China can't beat the Japanese Self Defense Forces. Russia might have a chance, but I doubt they would care; the Japanese aren't really a threat to them. The only way to really stop Japan would be to go nuclear, starting a global thermonuclear war. I don't think anyone would choose that route.

At any rate, let's just hope that the Chinese get off their ass now that their leadership transition is over and rein the North Koreans in...

	22-03-2003 12:23									#62
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quote: Originally posted by Lazarus and the Gimp If we're enforcing human rights, the next name on the list has to be Burma.

Yes, I'd have to agree with you there. Bastards!

	22-03-2003 12:29									#63
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Jungles still scare washington politicians... no dice. You have to pick a place with large flat open areas for tanks.

	22-03-2003 13:01									#64
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I doubt it will be the philipines, although the US invaded a democratic country before (granada) an invasion would lead to a , for the US not so good, powershift in SE-Asia.

Birma has 4 different army's fighting each other, this will cost too much manpower to controll.
And off course this being a mountainous country covered in jungle will make bush have second thoughts.

Why not Sudan?

	22-03-2003 13:24									#65
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Highly implausible. No country in the region will allow the US to do such a thing. If the US presses on regardless, just like what it is doing now, say goodbye to whatever left of US influence in the region. The RoK base will be definitely kicked out, and Japan won't take this kindly, either. From where? Out of your rectum? Where will the US stage the troops? RoK? Japan? Both extremely unlikely. With what? The US is having a bit of a problem with Iraq now, and that's with nice staging areas and bases in the region. As DanS pointed out, the US military strength has consistently been vastly overstated. Have you gone insane? The second that Japan has a remote possibility of building nuclear weapons, every other country in that region will lay down their differences to put a swift end to this. Even Russia may join in.

UR, the North Koreans appear to be refusing to speak on serious terms with anyone except the United States -- what do you propose?

	22-03-2003 13:36									#66
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quote: I doubt it will be the philipines, although the US invaded a democratic country before (granada)

Grenada wasn't democratic; get your facts straight.

	22-03-2003 14:55									#67
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Philippines is being handled very well by Filipinos. We could help more with equipment, continue the training, provide financial support, and let them finish it. Arroyo demanded the Philippine army finish the MILF in the next 90 days. Unrealistic, but an indication of their ambitions. MILF recently tried to blow up a Catholic girls school according to a Cebu newspaper. The bomber blew up w/ his bomb short of his target.

Dolores, my wife, went to a Catholic girls school in the Philippines. This sort of thing makes me extremely angry, I can't see the Catholic Philippinos feeling any differently.

Iran would be tough I believe. Need alot more divisions for that. Huge expansion of the army. That takes time and political will. I'm impressed to no end at American political will for the fight in Iraq. Would that will waver? I don't know, I wouldn't have guessed this culture could do what it's doing. Who knows what it is capable of?

	22-03-2003 14:56									#68
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France, Russia, China, Germany, Antartica, Moon, Tahiti, Fiji, and Hawaii

	22-03-2003 15:10									#69
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YOU LEAVE FIJI OUT OF THIS!!!

	22-03-2003 15:21									#70
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quote: Philippines is being handled very well by Filipinos. We could help more with equipment, continue the training, provide financial support, and let them finish it. Arroyo demanded the Philippine army finish the MILF in the next 90 days. Unrealistic, but an indication of their ambitions. MILF recently tried to blow up a Catholic girls school according to a Cebu newspaper. The bomber blew up w/ his bomb short of his target.

This text reads totally differently, when you know the other meaning of MILF.

	22-03-2003 15:38									#71
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer Iran would be tough I believe. Need alot more divisions for that. Huge expansion of the army. That takes time and political will. I'm impressed to no end at American political will for the fight in Iraq. Would that will waver? I don't know, I wouldn't have guessed this culture could do what it's doing. Who knows what it is capable of?

Who knows, indeed...

There will be a big price to pay for this Iraq adventure alone. The one for Iran would be a lot bigger.

Are you willing to pay?

	22-03-2003 15:48									#72
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It depends on how the Iraq issue will play out.

	22-03-2003 15:50									#73
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My guess is that -to secure his reelection- Bush will invade Syria or Jordan (or both) in the second half of 2004. This will make it possible to 'solve' the Palestinian problem:
Israel will annex the West Bank, Golan and will dispell a substantial part of the Palestinians.
So finally the Palestinians will have their 'own' state...
(though doubtless many will be killed during this 'transfer')

By the way, the present war proves that the US prefers to attack countries without nuclear weapons.
So an attack on North Korea is highly improbable.

Last edited by S. Kroeze on 22-03-2003 at 15:59

	22-03-2003 15:51									#74
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rriiight.

	22-03-2003 15:57									#75
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Hersh, well, it's more than I got on me at the moment...tell you what, bill me.

Depends really. They have nukes, support terrorism in the form of Hamas, and have an extremist government.

Cost a trillion...incl considering the expansion of the military to maybe 30 divisions. Guessing there.

That would be on top of Iraq expense.

Hell, I don't know. I'd need to hear from the economists around here about the ability of the country to sustain such an expense.

Paramount in the consideration is the potential loss of live. My guess is the Iranians don't want to be liberated. That means major ugly war to rid the place of WMD. Guerilla war in the mountains...

Uggg.

	22-03-2003 18:01									#76
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quote: Originally posted by atawa although the US invaded a democratic country before (granada

Congratulations atawa! You just won this year's award for "Most stunningly bizarre definition of "democracy"!"

This gives you automatic shortlisting for "Apolyton Clueless Numbnuts of the year".

	22-03-2003 18:06									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: Have you gone insane? The second that Japan has a remote possibility of building nuclear weapons, every other country in that region will lay down their differences to put a swift end to this. Even Russia may join in. How absurd; no one can prevent Japan from getting nukes if they really want them. China better lean on North Korea real quick, unless they want a nuclear rival in East Asia...

China has nuclear missiles, Russia has nuclear missiles.

'nuff said.

	22-03-2003 18:09									#78
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I'm waiting for your comment on NK, UR.

	22-03-2003 18:09									#79
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk UR, the North Koreans appear to be refusing to speak on serious terms with anyone except the United States -- what do you propose?

I don't understand why the Bush administration has been refusing to speak with DPRK so far. It completely puzzles me.

	22-03-2003 18:18									#80
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What business is it of the United States? So they have thirty thousand troops there. The US has seventy thousand troops in Germany, do you see them discussing German-Polish relations with the Poles? North Korea needs to talk to South Korea, and they need to talk with Japan. Not us.

For our part, I think the Bush administration is waiting until they can give NK their full attention, if you know what I mean and I think you do.

	22-03-2003 18:56									#81
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand Not anything to do with Classic Rock; rather a continuing effort to get people to look ahead. Who next gets the attention of the "sleeping giants", now that they've been awakened ? BTW, don't be shocked, again. "Terrorism, wherever it's found". Old news. Phillipines, it says here.

Countries who donīt manage to get Nuclear weapons in time. So it wonīt be NK and probably also not Iran (assuming that the US-Troops will pause a wile after Iraq, on the one hand, because war is expensive, on the other hand to restock their magazines, and so give Iran enough time to get Nuclear weapons).
It also wonīt be Pakistan, because they on the one hand have the bomb and on the other hand are allied (although large parts of the population rather support Al Quaeda and the Taliban than the US).
So itīs difficult.
But anyone remembers Libya with President Muhammar al Gaddafi?
Heīs been quiet for a long time, but he wanted to build a large Plant for the Production of chemical weapons (and probably has built it) and I think links to terrorist organizations will probably also be found.
So heīs an ideal target for the next war (and he doesnīt have nuclear weapons )

	22-03-2003 19:41									#82
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No, It'll be Saudi Arabia next - the source of 9/11.

US just needs a new base in Arabia and Saddam was stupid enough to give them an excuse.

Also, US would know that the Saudi people really hate their leaders, so another Regime Lobotomy could be on the cards.

	22-03-2003 19:42									#83
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With regard to the 'decapitation strike' that kicked this whole thing off -- whether you think it killed Saddam, wounded him, or just shook him up a bit, I think it has made a lasting impression. What effect do you think this reach-out-and-touch-someone ability may have on future diplomacy with personality-cult style authoritarian regimes?

	22-03-2003 20:28									#84
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk With regard to the 'decapitation strike' that kicked this whole thing off -- whether you think it killed Saddam, wounded him, or just shook him up a bit, I think it has made a lasting impression. What effect do you think this reach-out-and-touch-someone ability may have on future diplomacy with personality-cult style authoritarian regimes?

Very little. Saddam is undoubtedly in a normal residential house somewhere in the suburbs of Baghdad, moving to a different house every night. Just like he did last time.

	22-03-2003 21:01									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer Iran would be tough I believe. Need alot more divisions for that. Huge expansion of the army. That takes time and political will. I'm impressed to no end at American political will for the fight in Iraq. Would that will waver? I don't know, I wouldn't have guessed this culture could do what it's doing. Who knows what it is capable of?

There's no need for a military option with Iran, they already have a healthy reform movement happening. It will take some time, but eventually they'll be a democratic nation. You'll just be making things worse if you start getting belligerent with them, and turn people from within the reform movement against you, along with the hardliners.

	22-03-2003 21:05									#86
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk What business is it of the United States? So they have thirty thousand troops there. The US has seventy thousand troops in Germany, do you see them discussing German-Polish relations with the Poles?

Ahem. Those are rather different situations with no parallels. At any rate, if the US has no business with DPRK, why did GWB called it part of this "Axis of Evil?" Besides, why did GWB screw around with the "Sunshine Policy?"

quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk North Korea needs to talk to South Korea, and they need to talk with Japan. Not us.

Not so. The US has a tendency to meddle in things and there are people who need to know how it stand on certain issues.

quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk For our part, I think the Bush administration is waiting until they can give NK their full attention, if you know what I mean and I think you do.

Military action is a non-option as I pointed out above. No bombing raids and/or special ops, no full scale attacks.

	22-03-2003 21:10									#87
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger I don't understand why the Bush administration has been refusing to speak with DPRK so far. It completely puzzles me.

Probably because they realize that N. Korea is just having a temper tantrum and trying to get attention. If a child does that, you leave it alone in a room for awhile until it calms down. Their regime is on it's last legs, and they're just hoping at this point they can delay the inevitable. The best thing to do is just let S. Korea handle it, the North will eventually come around. They have to.

	22-03-2003 21:12									#88
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We're already in the Philippines. We've been there since shortly after Afganistan. Though, officially at first we weren't supposed to be involved in combat, we have been. Since a month or so ago, we've officially been involved in combat against Abu-Sayeff, the Moro Islamic Front, and may go after the Huks in the north as well.

I don't know if who we're going to invade next, but if the Bushies don't deal with the crisis on the Korean Peninsula things are going to go seriously downhill.

If I had to make a wild guess at the next target for massive military intervention, I'd have to say Columbia. Things have been escelating there recently.

	22-03-2003 21:17									#89
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara We're already in the Philippines. We've been there since shortly after Afganistan. Though, officially at first we weren't supposed to be involved in combat, we have been. Since a month or so ago, we've officially been involved in combat against Abu-Sayeff, the Moro Islamic Front, and may go after the Huks in the north as well.

But thats not overthrowing a government, it doesn't count. These warmongers won't be happy unless they get to topple someone. They just want to view international cooperation as a nuisance.

	22-03-2003 21:18									#90
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Syria would be easiest, then, since we'll have the troops right there and it's a weak country that supports terrorism against Americans.