23-03-2003 03:50									#1
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Ok - this has got to stay quiet.

We can try and fight our way onto the continent, and it will be a fight - or we can go another route.

Jon initiated and I completed a discussion with GhengisFarb regarding establishing a new alliance. Their first priority is hitting RP.

And ours is - GS. Yes - GS. Ghengis has agreed to a tentative plan that will see us massing trrops to attack GS. As they move to defend - he will land a force of horsemen to tear up their infrastructure. We will press the war to its conclusion.

I think we would have to implement the disconnnect iron-build warrior-connect-and upgrade plan to get more Immortals quickly. Will cost us cash.

In return - and after a period of rebuilding and catching our breath - we do the same to RolePlay - but with our roles reversed. Here, we land a force on the southern coast - RP reacts - Gow rushes to their aid - and hits them from behind.

It has risks. Clearly. And there is always the potential for Gow to back-stab us on the deal. But we would have a written agreement - for what that is worth.

We would do it after the tech trade - GS has told us they are providing Republic, construction and currency. We are to provide them with the free tech. Good deal.

So - are you up for this plan - or not.

	23-03-2003 03:52									#2
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And GhengisFarb knows we will be publicly ranting and raving about how unfair the bobians are being.

	23-03-2003 03:58									#3
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Ok - this one has not been discussed with Jon but represents another possibility.

We agree to the Alliance - but we invade RP first. GoW moves to attack RP as well.

In the meantime - we explain to Legoland and GS what is going on, ally more strongly with them, and commit to a three civ invasion of Bob. Gow and RP will be at war - and then the three of us invade. If the Bobians react quickly - and unite - it would be messy.

I still like the above plan - a move to get all of Estonia for ourselves.

	23-03-2003 04:12									#4
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I will need ot think about this. We need more information before I agree to any of this. We still don't know how big BOB is, or if ND is goign to attack us for settling on BOB. But if I had to chose.... which I don't want to do right now I would say plan 1.

	23-03-2003 04:14									#5
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let us explore a little more, I would like to know more about the size of Estonia.

	23-03-2003 05:00									#6
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This sure would provide a lot for us. A place to expand that woudl be easier to support than cities on separate continents. My concern is that GS has been a good tech partner while GoW has been shifty on tech deals. How would our research situation compare once we cancel the agreement with GS? The nice thing about this is that GS is probably not prepared for war. I think they have been busy expanding their cities and probably do not have many military units, but they may be starting to get into a position where they can create them quickly. We will need to be careful in our timing of canceling the tech arragement or we could end up losing out on Republic, Construction, and Currency. So much to think about...

	23-03-2003 05:26									#7
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For some reason, that I can't seem to put my finger on, I feel rather shakey concerning an attack on GS at this time....I too need time to think about this.

	23-03-2003 06:04									#8
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Bob is really big. There is jungle separating RP from the other teams. I'm from Lux so i know.

	23-03-2003 06:16									#9
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Thanks statusperfect. Anything you can add would be appreciated. The other thing GhengisFarb mentioned is that all three remaining Bobian civs started on the west - and are expanding east. The east coast is apparently clear. That came out in the discussion about landing and invading RP.

Also - another couple of thoughts on this:

1) - we should wait until GS moves to republic. Then they cannot pop rush troops. They will have to buy them and that is much less effective.

2) - this will likely trigger golden ages for both us and GS.

3) - see the moves thread for my analysis on how we can accumulate a sizeable number of immortals quickly.

	23-03-2003 06:45									#10
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I think we need to hit someone

and GS is weaker than they will be in a long time

but I also have concerns (Relating to tech trading and the like)

the fact that Bob is really big suggests that Ghengis was lying to us about the space that he and ND have

Jon Miller

	23-03-2003 06:46									#11
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before we agree to any alliance, I want to know more about GoW position

maybe a minimap?

Jon Miller

	23-03-2003 06:49									#12
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Ghengis has agreed to complete map trading - so we would get a look at all of Bob, and part of lego - in exchange for them getting a look at North Estonia.

If we are going to do this - we need his guarantee that our map goes no further.

	23-03-2003 06:52									#13
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I am not for this

I see no reason to trust him that far

and he was wanting map trading earlier

also, looking at what are people have uncoverred

there is plenty of room there

we still don't see hide nor hair of them

maybe status perfect can tell us something of how much land they have

they say they have none (this includes GoW)

we see lots

what is up here?

and if we can not trust GoW in this (telling us hoe much land they have)

how can we trust them in anything else?

Jon Miller

	23-03-2003 07:01									#14
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real politic from GoW posted this in the ISDG forum regarding tech trading:

"In the intrasite game, friendship is very worthwhile, GoW is often discussing who can be trusted, and who we are better off being friends with. We want to keep the other teams happier with us than they are with each other, until there are just a few teams left."

	23-03-2003 07:17									#15
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I am not sure if that is good or bad?

Jon Miller

	23-03-2003 07:36									#16
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Me neither. There is the positive read that they have decided to be good friends with us. Or, on the darker side - he is trying to set us against RP and GS - two teams that we have been on fairly good relations with.

	23-03-2003 07:56									#17
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against GS to be sure

he brought that up

Jon miller

	23-03-2003 08:22									#18
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And one other thing about RP - Ghengis says that they have tons of land - and 4 luxuries. He says they are the civ to watch out for.

If they all have so much land - why are they upset with us grabbing a small corner?

	23-03-2003 09:26									#19
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We should be very carful entering into an alliance with GOW against GS. Seems to me GS has been up front and a good friend while GOW has been misleading.

	23-03-2003 09:28									#20
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However, if they are bieng up front with us and this secret allaince works it could and mostly likely would be a huge payoff.
Just think.

All of Estonia under the brilliant leadership of VOX.
"We love the VOX parade's all across Estonia.

	23-03-2003 09:35									#21
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Aye - that's the rub. Are they being up front with us?

The more I look at it - the more I am convinced we can catch GS with their pants down on this. But if GoW backs out - or tips off GS - then eeek. It would be gruesome.

	23-03-2003 10:01									#22
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quote: let us explore a little more, I would like to know more about the size of Estonia.

Do you mean Bob? Estonia is our continent. We have an agreement with GS that we will not go down there. If we try to explore it will let GS know that something is up. As for sizes, unless we take a major piece of Bob, I think the GS area will provide more land than the little corner of Bob we were looking at. GS has been quietly expanding the whole game and we are only now starting to see the edge of their border. They have flood plains so their expansion rate should be pretty good.

	23-03-2003 10:08									#23
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quote: Bob is really big. There is jungle separating RP from the other teams. I'm from Lux so i know.

Bob may be big but the land in the north may not be that great. Look at what we have uncovered so far. Lots of hills with no iron plus some plains with one cow. It reminds me of what we have around Miller Town. I think GS has better land. Besides, once we have taken over GS and switch our attack to RP, we could end up with some cities that will provide a foothold on Bob (if we decide not to give those cities away).

	23-03-2003 10:09									#24
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GoW or GS? Bob or Estonia? Big equation. Lots of variables.

Can we trust GoW? They have been shifty in their tech deals and they try to get all they can in a trade. It just shows that they are serious about the game. When I joined and was doing some catch-up reading I made a note about GoW and GS that they may not get along. It had something to do with GF and I think Togas but I do not remember, nor do I have that note with me. I think GF really wants to see GS dissappear. Yes, we can trust them (at least in this matter).

Can we trust GS? We have been, but should we? GS has been very nice with our tech arrangement but there are these little things that make me suspicious of them. Way back in the early FA thread there were two things they said during a chat that caught my attention. One was when they asked about our luxury situation. They were very specific about finding out what we had. When Jon told them we had just one they said something about it is possible but didn't offer any explanation, nor did they offer up information about the luxuries they have. There should be two sets of luxuries on this continent. We can see on our map there is another incense down south. I suspect they have the rest of our incense plus another set of luxuries. The other thing that got my attention is they asked out our goals in the game. They wanted to know if we would be a vassal state for them. It would be like providing them with a free Forbidden Palace. Jon said no, we were playing to win. Their statement made me feel that GS did not take Vox seriously. Couple that with the tech deal and I feel that we will be around only as long as it suits GS's purpose. We have been up front in our dealings with GS since that arrangement was signed. We have even given them contact with the Bob civs. They have not been as straight with us. They demanded that we give them half the Lux gold saying it was a "tech" deal when no techs were involved (and they did not consider the costs of us loaning the city which should have been subtracted from the amount). Based on a statement from Lego that we will be getting contact and the latest info that we will be getting Construction and Currency through GS, I believe GS already has contact with Lego and they have not given it to us. Call me paranoid but I think GS is setting up a three way with us and Lego while GS maintains control of it. GS has not been very happy with our research rate. They may be thinking that Lego will be a better partner and we may be on the way out. We shouldn't put too much trust in GS. They are using us and will continue to do so as long as it suits their needs.

Which war will be easier? GS. We are on the bottom of the score rank, GoW is in the middle, and the rest, including GS, are close together at the top. Looking at the histograph on power we are all fairly equal (expect we have no info on Lego). On the culture histograph GS is the lowest. I believe GS has been busy with their expansion and their high score is due to population. If they do indeed have two luxuries they probably don't need temples. If they have been directing their resources into settlers and workers and packing their cities close together they don't need culture to cover tiles. The military advisor says we are week against everyone except for GS where it says average. Since there has been no real threat to them they probably have not been building a military. Quite the contrary is true of the Bob civs. They have already fought a war and there was mention of swordsmen during the save Lux operation. They also want war. After we saved Lux there was a post that said ND was disappointed because they wanted to get a leader. Transporting units to Bob will be a lot harder than fighting on our own continent. I don't think GS would help us on Bob. It would take resources away from their expansion. Being the proud builders they are, I doubt Lego would join the conflict. With good defensive positions we could hold out against two or even three civs but we would not be able to expand with all the military activity in the area. We would end up putting a lot of resources into the war with little to show for it. This would only help GS and Lego get farther ahead of the rest of us. A war with GS will be quicker, far less costly, and with a lot more to gain than fighting on Bob.

We are resource poor. . We have seen no iron or luxuries yet on Bob. We have only one luxury and our iron is distant and vulnerable by an attack from GS, and we have no horses. Can you see GS sending knights or later cavalry into our iron deposits and all we can come back with is longbowmen. GS has not been quick to claim the iron near Dissidentville. Either they don't need it because they have another source, which would be nice to have, or they are not building any swordsmen, which will make for an easy war. Unless there is a resource paradise on Bob that we have not found, we will get more from southern Estonia. We already know GS has flood plains for good growth.

After it is all over, maintaining and protecting all of Estonia will be a lot easier than shuttling units back and forth between continents. Any continental wonders we manage to build will provide more benefit if we control all of Estonia.

What is hard to evaluate is what happens outside the game. How will Lego react to us attacking GS? If GS is making a tech agreement with them as well, Lego may come to their aid. We would need to make this a quick war before Lego has the chance to get units to Estonia. Once we have conquered GS will Lego be willing to deal with us? How about GoW and ND? ND has been uncooperative so far. Will the two civs on Bob live happily ever after or will they have a tif and end up as one big civ. Maybe they will decide they want more than just Bob. Will we be next? Maybe everyone will be happy with the resulting balance and unwilling to risk war. It could be a big race to space.

That last part if very hard to gauge. Everything before it add up to attacking GS. Did I forget anything?

If GS has been REXing and not building a military then time is of the essence. Now that we can see their border they may not have much REXing left. Add that to being close to switching to Republic and they may be getting ready to start building fast. And we need to be very careful so GS does not get wind of this.

The hard part will be timing it with the tech trade. Does our agreement include a non-aggression pact? If so, we should cancel it but that will give GS a warning that something is up and give them time to prepare for war. If we don't cancel it then we become a back-stabbing deal breaker. If the agreement does not include a non-aggression pack then I don't see the need to cancel it first. After all, with their quicker research rate if they happen to discover a tech while we are still at war I would be willing to accept it.

Wow. What a weekend for me to decide to get active in posting. I guess this is why I made it to Warlord. I hope you guys are not getting tired of reading all my writing.

	23-03-2003 10:41									#25
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quote: It had something to do with GF and I think Togas but I do not remember, nor do I have that note with me. I think GF really wants to see GS dissappear. Yes, we can trust them (at least in this matter).

I found the spot in the old FA thread. The problem was with RP not GS. I still think GoW wants GS out of the picture since they are one of the top civs.

	23-03-2003 11:26									#26
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quote: One was when they asked about our luxury situation. They were very specific about finding out what we had. When Jon told them we had just one they said something about it is possible but didn't offer any explanation, nor did they offer up information about the luxuries they have. There should be two sets of luxuries on this continent.

I found the spot in the chat in the old FA thread where Jon and Nathan talked about luxuries. Here it is.

quote: nbarclay> Would you mind exchanging information about what luxuries each side has? We'd proposed that when we first met, but you didn't seem interested at the time. Jon_Miller> we don't have extra Jon_Miller> we will have extra iron though nbarclay> Furs and/or incense, or something else? Jon_Miller> something else Jon_Miller> I think... Jon_Miller> Jon_Miller> nope, not something else nbarclay> But just one in your whole area? That sounds odd. Jon_Miller> we don't have much area nbarclay> Still, it doesn't usually take much area with the map generator's algorithms. nbarclay> As I said, odd.

Note that Nathan mentioned furs and incense but he never really said that they had them. He also said that they wanted to exchange luxury information but he never really said what they have.

I think GS has both furs and insense and they have not made any offer to share them.

	23-03-2003 11:34									#27
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quote: Originally posted by HarryH Do you mean Bob? Estonia is our continent. We have an agreement with GS that we will not go down there. If we try to explore it will let GS know that something is up. As for sizes, unless we take a major piece of Bob, I think the GS area will provide more land than the little corner of Bob we were looking at. GS has been quietly expanding the whole game and we are only now starting to see the edge of their border. They have flood plains so their expansion rate should be pretty good.

I meant with a galley around the continent.
is that against our agreement?

	23-03-2003 11:42									#28
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I finally found the formal trade agreement with GS:
http://www.apolyton.net/forums/show...466#post1716466

There is no mention of non-aggression in the agreement.

	23-03-2003 11:48									#29
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Great posts Harry. I see what you are saying about the best target for us. I agree that GS would be the best target, if GOW is being truthful. I guess I'm paranoid but I don't really trust GOW, I feel they may use this secret alliance agianst us. either telling GS about it in order to break up our tech trading, or use the possible WAR to get a foothold on Estonia for themselves.

	23-03-2003 11:53									#30
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Maybe I am being a little paranoid about GS. Some of the things I picked up on could have been simple oversites. I don't know. I think our situation comes down to this:

1. We pull back from Bob and stay in our half of Estonia while keeping our tech agreement in place with GS. This will leave us as a last rate power. Assuming someone doesn't think we are an easy target and that we last to the end of the game, we would need all the other civs to make some serious mistakes for us to win the game.
   
2. We fortify on Bob and fight it out. This will be very costly. We will continue to be the bottom civ looking for a lucky chance to win.
   
3. We take fate into our own hands, pay our homage to The One, attack GS and hope for the best. If we fail we will be the second civ to leave the game. If we succeed, and also help to take out RP, we will have remove two of the top contenders from the game and put us into position to be a contender.
   
4. We find another option for expansion. At this time I don't see one, unless GS and Lego are suddenly willing to help us against the Bob civs. They have given no indication of that yet.