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Jaakko is offline Jaakko
King
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Jan 2000
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 02:40
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Russian reports on the War, paint different picture Tired of ads?

I found a site with English translations of reports by www.irakwar.ru . They claim the reports are based on Russian radio intercepts and other intel services.

I'm not at all convinced that these are accurate, but the information coming from official sources is admittedly very limited, and likely altered for effect.

So what do the worthies on Poly think about today's report?

http://www.aeronautics.ru/news/news002/news076.htm

quote:
March 23, 2003, 1200hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - The situation in southern Iraq can be characterized as unstable and controversial. Heavy fighting is taking place in the Umm-Qasr-An-Nasiriya-Basra triangle. Satellite and signals intelligence show that both sides actively employ armored vehicles in highly mobile attacks and counterattacks. Additionally, fighting is continuing near the town of An-Najaf.

As of this morning the Iraqi defenses along the Basra - An-Nasiriya - An-Najaf line are holding.

Following the yesterday's Iraqi counter strike near An-Nasiriya the US command was forced to halt the advance of its troops toward An-Najaf and to redirect a portion of available tank forces to cover the flanks of the 3rd Motorized Infantry Division attacked by the Iraqis. By late evening yesterday constant air strikes and increasing strength of American tank attacks forced the Iraqis to withdraw their troops back to eastern parts of Nasiriya, across the Euphrates river, were they assumed defensive positions along the river bank.

During the last day of fighting the Iraqis lost up to 20 tanks, up to 2 artillery batteries, and around 100 troops.

Yesterday's US losses are estimated at 10 destroyed or disabled tanks, several armored personnel carriers and up to 15 troops killed in action.

By 0700hrs MSK today the fighting at Nasiriya stopped. Currently both sides are rushing to regroup their forces and to get them ready for more fighting in this area.

Near Basra the advance of the coalition forces came to a complete halt at the near approaches to the western and southwestern outskirts of the city. The US and British forces are rushing to settle into defensive positions after failing to surround Basra. Eastern and northern approaches to Basra remain open and under control of the Iraqi forces.

More controversial reports are coming in from the town of Umm-Qasr. As early as three days ago the US command has declared that the coalition forces have captured this small port town and the adjacent oil terminal. However, throughout these three days heavy fighting continued in the town and in the suburbs. The US forces are still unable to break the defense put up by the Iraqi 45th brigade defending the town.

Moreover, several counterattacks by the Iraqi forces at Umm Qasr have pushed the US forces out of some part of the town. During last night the Iraqi 45th brigade was reinforced by a special tank battalion of the 51st Infantry Division. The reinforcement included up to 600 troops and 10 tanks. However, the coalition forces were also strengthened overnight with two tank battalions and self-propelled artillery. As of 1000hrs MSK this morning heavy fighting continues at Umm Qasr.

According to intercepted radio communications, the British marine infantry units in defensive positions on the Fao peninsula have requested emergency air and artillery support after being attacked by superior Iraqi forces. So far it is not clear whether this was an actual counterattack by the Iraqis or just a nuisance attack. The British commanders report that their positions are being attacked by up to a regiment of infantry supported by tanks.

Other intercepted radio traffic suggests that, as the British and US forces bend the Basra - An-Najaf line of defense, the Iraqi command will pull back its main forces to the Al-Ammara - Ad-Divaniya line. Already most of the Iraqi forces in this region have moved to the Al-Ammara - Ad-Divaniya positions and within the next 48 hours defense of Basra and Fao peninsula will be reduced to just the local units and garrisons. The goal of the remaining forces will be to tie up superior coalition forces in these areas.

According to radio intercepts during today's night the coalition begun airdropping troops in northern Iraq from airfields in Turkey and Jordan. These forces are being used to form mobile strike groups in northern Kurdistan and near the western-Iraqi town of Er-Rutbah. Already up to 5,000 coalition troops have been delivered to northern Kurdistan and up to 1000 paratroopers have landed near Er-Rutbah.

Russian military intelligence has uncovered a range of facts pointing to a separate arrangement between the top leadership of Jordan and the US military command. Officially Jordan has declared its neutrality in the war against Iraq and refused to provide its airspace to the coalition aviation. However, at the same time Jordan has allowed the anti-Iraq coalition to place surveillance radars and radio reconnaissance stations on its territory. Jordan has also allowed the coalition to use its military airbases.

Available information indicates that coalition special ops units, including up to 400 troops and their command headquarters, have been deployed to the Jordanian Zarka military base and to the home base of the Jordan's 71st special ops brigade.

Reports that have surfaced in the media in the past 12 hours about the capture of a US special ops unit near Baghdad are probably not true. It is likely that these reports refer to the capture of coalition paratroopers yesterday morning near the town of Akashat.

During the past 12 hours there has been a drop in intensity of air strikes against Baghdad. Analysts attribute this to the fact that most of available coalition air assets are now deployed in support of ground forces. Intercepted coalition radio traffic shows that most of the bombing attacks against Baghdad are carried out by the US strategic aviation and by sea-launched long-range cruise missiles.

So far the US was unable to destroy the air defense networks in central Iraq. As before, the Iraqis continue to covertly use their radars and SAM launchers on a limited bases while employing a huge number of decoys designed to imitate radars.

The US was also unable to disrupt the central control over the Iraqi army. The US command is forced to admit that, despite the best efforts of the coalition aviation, the Iraqi forces maintain high combat readiness and reliable command and control structure.

[Russian] radio intercept units have reported the loss of two coalition planes. One of the planes was a "Tornado" strike aircraft and the other one was believed to be an F-16 fighter-bomber. The F-16 was shot down over Baghdad and is believed to have crash-landed in a desert in southern Iraq. A coalition search-and-resque unit was immediately dispatched to this area.

A CIA referent in the combat area Col. Davis (likely to be a pseudonym) and the US DoD Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) regional director were demoted due to their inadequate performance in estimating the strength of Iraq's forces and their combat readiness.

Eyewitnesses report that Gen. Tommy Franks looks extremely exhausted and irritated. Gen. Franks has cancelled the meeting with journalists planned for this morning.

Work is paralyzed at the coalition press-center in Kuwait. Journalists are not able to get any information except for the hourly press communique from the command. A variety of reasons are cited by the military to reduce the number of trips into the combat zone for the journalists. All reports coming from the journalists attached to the coalition units are now being strictly censored by the military. All live broadcasts, as those seen during the first day of the war, are now strictly prohibited by a special order from the coalition command. The required time delay between the time news video footage was shot and the time it can be broadcast has been increased to a minimum of 4 hours.

More accurate information became available regarding the losses sustained by both sides during the first three days of the war. The coalition has officially acknowledged the deaths of some 25 servicemen. However, intercepted radio communications show that the actual number of coalition casualties is at least 55-70 troops killed and no less than 200 wounded. The emergency dispatch of the "Comfort" medical ship closer to the combat zone is a direct indication of serious casualties. The "Comfort" is expected to arrive to the southern tip of the Fao peninsula later tonight.

It is more difficult to evaluate the losses of the Iraqi especially due to the air strikes. On the south front Iraqi losses are estimated at 400-600 killed, 1,500 wounded and up to 300 captured.

SlowwHand is offline SlowwHand
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Sep 1999
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 02:45 Visit SlowwHand's homepage!
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I can tell you right now it's crap.
The captured Iraqi part alone is pure fabrication.
There wer that many trying to give up before it even started.

Agathon is offline Agathon
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Dec 2002
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 02:48
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The Coalition forces are trying to keep independent journalists out of Iraq. Their excuse is that Iraqi forces are dressing up as journalists and they might be in danger. What a ridiculous excuse - how many Iraqi soldiers look like Christiane Amanpour?

Anyway the journos aren't buying it. They think they are being targeted since they have been reporting that the war isn't going too well. So perhaps these Russian reports aren't as far off (at least in tone) the truth.

DinoDoc is offline DinoDoc
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Sep 1999
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 02:50
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
The Coalition forces are trying to keep independent journalists out of Iraq.

They don't seem to be doing a very good job of it given the fact that I know of some organizations that have them in Iraq.

Jaakko is offline Jaakko
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Jan 2000
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 02:51
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The Iraqi POW numbers are probably quite off kilter, but the vehicle losses may well be happening, especially when considering that the Russians sold a lot of Kornet anti-tank missiles to Iraq in 2002 and early 2003.

Agathon is offline Agathon
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 02:54
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quote:
Originally posted by DinoDoc

They don't seem to be doing a very good job of it given the fact that I know of some organizations that have them in Iraq.


This was today - I just saw it on CTV Newsnet.

Kirnwaffen is offline Kirnwaffen
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Jul 2000
time: 22:27
  Old Post 25-03-2003 02:57
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In my opinion, the legitimacy of this report is questionable largely to the claim that it is based on signal intelligence. To begin, it indicates that the Russians are extremely adept at deciphering American communications and that they have someone in the area actively doing so (seeing as most of what they're reporting would be transmitted on short range equipment).

Secondly, and I find this far more difficult to believe, it indicates that someone inside Russian intelligence is actively distributing this information to the media, something that could absolutely ruin relations and expose sources. Then again, seeing as they still allow their companies to supply arms to Iraq, they might not care.

Spiffor is offline Spiffor
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 03:10
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In the propaganda battle that's occuring, it is good to have some Russian propaganda too. That with Faux news and Iraqi TV can give an idea on how things are going on, if you combine the 3.
This source looks the most serious I've seen until now (in the tone), but I think it give partial information, and not the whole picture. However, the description about the battle of Basra seem convincing enough.

Dis is offline Dis
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Feb 2000
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 03:12 Visit Dis's homepage!
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well I won't believe Iraq tv under any conditions.

The part about the tank battles seems believable.

I would combine the Russian media and U.S. media for a good consensus.

MichaeltheGreat is offline MichaeltheGreat
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Oct 1999
time: 21:27
  Old Post 25-03-2003 03:32
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Kirnwaffen's spot on about the claims of signals intelligence. I'd expect from the nature of the reports that they're getting info from the Iraqis, based on their assumptions.

Going from what the Iraqis reported last time, they exagerrate most of their reports by about a factor of ten in each direction. Whether this is intentional from the outset, or simply successive levels of excess optimism at each level of the chain of command, the Iraqis have demonstrated in the past that they don't know crap about what's really going on in the field.

The idea of Iraqi forces attacking in the open in regimental strength is just laughable. There's so much allied firepower there that it would a slaughter in a matter of minutes.

A limited allied blocking force not decisively engaging small groups of resisters on the move is more consistent with the forces available and the operating doctrine of both sides.

JCG is offline JCG
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Feb 2002
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 03:39
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The truth is most likely somewhere between what the Russians are saying and what Coalition forces are admitting.

Of course, exactly how close either of them is to the truth, regarding any particular issue, can vary greatly.

For example, the Russian/Arab reports of U.S. Tank losses seem rather inaccurate and exaggerated...perhaps they are confusing Tanks with APC/IFV/etc.?

monkspider is offline monkspider
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Aug 2001
time: 23:27
  Old Post 25-03-2003 03:52
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MTG: Don't be too proud of this technological terror that we've created. All of the firepower America can muster is insignificant next to the power of the human spirit.

On topic, I accept these Russian reports altogether, they have much less to lose by being unbiased. American reports are intrinsically and inseperably linked to a need to satisy the administration. That's not to say that the Russian sources are without fault, but I'm sure there is far more truth that can be found there than in the official, state-sponsored headlines.

Stefu is offline Stefu
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I'd tend to fall in the 'truth is between Russians and Americans' camp, too.

Dis is offline Dis
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the russians have much to gain by being biased

Asher is offline Asher
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Nov 1999
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
This was today - I just saw it on CTV Newsnet.

CTV!

Good God, it must be true! CTV is an incredible news organization!

CTV's news network really, really blows. They don't know what they're doing.

DanS is offline DanS
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Triangulating between two lies doesn't shed light on the truth.

Re the Russian source, it's suspect to me, even though some things strike me as true (effective lie telling). The encryption used on these signals is non-trivial to be sure. It would take a lot of computing power to break through them. Also, they don't seem to have any reports from the West. Probably because they are blind to this information, which makes me have to agree with MtG that this info is coming from Iraqi troops.

DanS is offline DanS
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Also, this "calling in emergency airstrikes" seems weird. I mean, isn't calling in airstrikes our MO anyway?

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 05:03
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It is amazing what sources the left wing terms as being biased. It used to be conservatives who would bash the media, now it seems to be the left and those who are anti-US. But the left has gone to unimaginable lengths in attacking the media. Going beyong attacking Fox News, they have painted CNN as just as bad. But now they are actually attacking the BBC as well, well known for not having bias. I wonder what is next, will they start attacking The Guardian as too left-wing?

Look, our media clearly isn't just spouting propoganda. It reports it when we have victories, but we also have reported problems we have encountered. When our forces suffered it's problem at Nasiyrah, it was reported. I think it safe to stick to BBC/CNN for accurate news coverage.

As one evidence of unreliability of Russian news media, they once said that a whole bunch of Special Forces units have been captured in Baghdad. Yet the only ones we have seen pictured of as captured have been those 6 from a service crew.

Jaakko is offline Jaakko
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 05:09
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I hope you're not targeting that at me, Shi...

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 05:13
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaakko
I hope you're not targeting that at me, Shi...


Didn't have any particular poster in mind. It's just that on other threads most lefties have already condemned CNN as almost as bad as Fox News, and then on the war thread they are saying BBC is on the same level as CNN and Fox News.

Dis is offline Dis
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 05:17 Visit Dis's homepage!
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I agree.

And even Fox News has been quick to report problems we are having in the battlefield.

monkspider is offline monkspider
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 05:59
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quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
It is amazing what sources the left wing terms as being biased. It used to be conservatives who would bash the media, now it seems to be the left and those who are anti-US. But the left has gone to unimaginable lengths in attacking the media. Going beyong attacking Fox News, they have painted CNN as just as bad. But now they are actually attacking the BBC as well, well known for not having bias. I wonder what is next, will they start attacking the Guardian as too left-wing?


Shi: It's not so much that we think that the BBC or CNN are bad, it's just that they are inherently suspect to state propaganda. I read BBC.com a few times a day, and find it to be a good source of info. Not everything these news outlets report are lies, it's just that, as a matter of course, they are much more likely to report distorted information or propaganda material than say, the Russian news source cited earlier. This is pretty much old news, I am not sure why you are acting as if this is a massive left-wing conspiracy theory. If these news outlets were completely free of propaganda and subtle (or not so subtle) distortions, they would be absolutely unique in history for countries in time of war. Of course, the Russian source has it's own problems as well. But, on balance, I am sure that you will find it to offer a much more accurate depiction of the war as a whole.

Joseph is offline Joseph
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 06:37
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Well I stop reading after the tank statement. We have to many reporter in the field with our troops for them to lie to us. Now I was at work all day but yet to hear that we lost any tanks. To my knowledge either one or two AH-64 in combat. Between 7 and 12 POWs, and some 26 dead to all causes.

Spiffor is offline Spiffor
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 06:49
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Shi :

I don't believe in a grand conspiracy intended to take control of the media, but here is why I think the western media is showing huge amounts of propaganda (I posted it 2 days ago)

The news networks must talk almost all day on the war in Iraq. They have much and much blah blah (sorry, lack of vocabulary) to produce each day. They also have to show new images to keep the public interested. Lastly, they have to be on the spot, and to give te information at the very moment they get it.

The military astonishingly eases their jobs : they hand their images, their reports and such to the networks, who are too happy of having a news material to comment on. The only sources other than the military to get news material would be to inquire on the field. They do this too (hence the raw of corpses shown on BBC, you bet the military wouldn't have boasted about them), but these inquiries produce blah blah much more slowly, and much less often than the materian handed by the army. Especially because it is difficult to do your job as a journalist in a country at war.

Hence, the army has the upper hand on the information sources the media rely upon. It is not false to say the media report military propaganda most of the day.
I think it'll be in order to read the newspapers tomorrow, for more in depth analysis, which will escape the hype of instant information.

Dis is offline Dis
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but why would they focus so much on what has gone wrong in the war? There has been a lot of focus on U.S. failures and POW's.

Spiffor is offline Spiffor
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 07:07
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Because they also have reports on it, and their teams probably went there and witnessed the resistance. I'm not saying the media is deliberately lying, I'm saying they depend mucho of the military as their sources of info, and of course the military will lie or present partial truth. Or this war is a first-time revolution in mankind's history.
Of course the media will be very discreet about inofs that don't fit with their political agenda : I hardly imagine Faux broadcasting images of angered Iraqis throwing stones at USUK soldiers as much as images of overjoyed Iraqis.
But overall, the media want to have a live coverage, and want to bring most information to the public. CNN is a specialist in this "right here, right now, no time to think" approach. The aim is of course to sway most viewers. The resistance in Umm-Qasr is an information item too, and they speak about it as such. It doesn't make the bulk of information less originating from the PR service of the army.

Dis is offline Dis
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well I agree they depend on the military for much of their coverage. I'm not sure how that can be avoided if they want to cover the actual war and not be just a bunch of talking heads- which I hate.

Spiffor is offline Spiffor
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 07:19
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Dissident :

True. I cannot condemn the media for depending of the military. Heck, I cannot blame the media for going almost only in areas where the military says it's safe (i.e cleaned) : it is normal these people don't want to lose their heads, and want to do their job, just like anyone else.

I'm just explaining why this very normal phenomenon leads the Western media to show a good chunk of USUK propaganda. It's not evil or abnormal per se, but it is good to know.

Urban Ranger is offline Urban Ranger
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  Old Post 25-03-2003 07:24
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First of all, I don't think the Russians are completely off-base. I am not a SIGINT expert, but even I know there are a whole lot of methods/processes/etc. that can be used to extract information. Secondly, there are good reasons to believe that the "embeddeds" are own and controlled by the military, i.e., coalition command. They rely on the information given to them by the military, and they can't go everywhere they feel like. That's why Qatar's al-Jazeera televison has been such a success in the Arab world, since it provides a counterbalance to Western media, esp. in a wartime situation like this.

DanS is offline DanS
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Al Jazeera is embedded with American troops.

 
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