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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:27
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There's nothing that says that the Iraqi population and the irregulars will welcom Iranian or Syrian troops either. They could find themselves with the same problem the US has with a phanthom force snipping at them-- Reasons it won't happen
1) If Saddam is gone, many of his neighbors will be happier
2) If the US gets bloodied while degrading Iraqi power, the neighbors are happy
They could see it as win-win in which they grow in power regardless of the outcome
3. These armies would have to amass and prepare. The US MUST BE watching the whole region quite closely. The second a number of Iranian jets even seemed to be working up, they would be sent a warning. Tank movements ditto . Suprise is not possible.
4. With inferior air forces, their troops would be forced to move under hostile skies with only whatever mobile SAM coverage they bring with them. That is a recipe to lose a LOT of their forces.
5) The actual benefits are pretty nebulous. You may bloody the US. .. you may even force them backward for a bit . . . but you will likely stengthen US resolve, see a lot of your military decimated, and be seen as assisting Iraq ( and even the most ardent anti-war countries are not exactly clamoring to be their friend. YOUR REWARD . . . Saddam still strong .
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Lord Merciless
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I would be over-enjoyed if those sneaky SOBs decide to pull a Pearl Harbor. America would mobilize itself and Euros would no longer whine like mad. We'll finally have a chance to crush those fundies once and for all.
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Lancer
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Oregon Coast, USA! or Bohol, Philippines!
Apr 1999
time: 05:27
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It depends. Does the US have ground forces in Kuwait able to defend the Airforce bases there against a determined rush? Could mass attacks of suicide migs knock the carriers out in the surprise opening phase?
Under the circumstances, Turkey would most certainly undergo a popular moslem fundy revolution, and the US would be deprived of its airbases there, if not getting its forces, and planes, overrun.
Of course, that's worst case.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:27
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quote:
Originally posted by MOBIUS
So why not fight by American rules and launch a pre-emptive strike against a dangerous potential aggressor (the US). They could potentially cut off the head of the US armed forces relatively easily by launching a full scale pincer strike against the coalition forces through sheer weight of numbers...
The US supply line is already shakey - concerted airstrikes from Syria and Iran against the supply lines would cripple the coalition. The US could have all the fancy technology in the world, but if they have no ammunition or fuel they'd be dead in the water!
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Ask the Israelis about the competence of the Syrian Air Force.  We have AWACS and mid-air refueling capability, they're scared of flying in the dark. 'Nuf said.
On the ground, they'd have lengthening supply lines, so we'd let 'em come on enough to stretch those out, then interdict their supply lines from the air, and immobilise their forces where we can pound them without mercy. Give 'em a choice - die in place, or surrender in place, and wait in a holding area in the western Iraqi desert while the Israelies occupy Damascus.
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Sure, the Iranians and Syrians might suffer huge losses but imagine if they forced the US front line troops to surrender through lack of supplies? |
They'd have to reach our forces, first.
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I doubt the US has enough ammo for all three countries - they're already using far more ammo than they expected against Iraq...
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More than enough to spare - we'd just have to go for less pretty alternatives in a few cases.
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I expect Israel would jump in against Syria, but that would probably suck Egypt and Jordan into the fray and Turkey would be able to 'secure' northern Iraq. |
Would you prefer the '67 or the '73 vintage, sir?
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Why the hell not? America has as good as said their days are numbered if Iraq is anything to go by - why not go out in a blaze of glory and pre-empt a US attack now when the US is dangerously overstretched dealing with Iraq...
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We're not near "dangerously overstretched." It's much more along the lines of "moderately inconvenienced" as in "Oh, well, I guess we're actually going to have to fly more supplies in."
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Against the realms of possibility? |
Yep.
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:27
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quote:
Originally posted by Lancer
It depends. Does the US have ground forces in Kuwait able to defend the Airforce bases there against a determined rush? Could mass attacks of suicide migs knock the carriers out in the surprise opening phase?
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I doubt the US will allow itself to be suprised by masses of planes. I'm guessing satellite coverage of the entire area is constant and they have AWACs airborne at all times.
If someone sent a MASS of planes at them, those planes would have to get through a vigilent combat air patrol. I am not saying it cannot be done but I don't think anyone can count on suprise in any real way. I'm betting that those carriers in the gulf know every time there is ANY unusual air activity
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Andrew1999
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I think the best move for Syria is exactly what they're doing now--provide as much material support for Iraq as they can possibly get away with, and make sure they can claim to be the victim if things get ugly. Their air force and air defence may not be all that great but they do have one and it has gotten supplies since 1991, unlike Iraq.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:27
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quote:
Originally posted by MOBIUS
Like a muslim fundamentalist really cares... |
We'll help get closer to Allah as many of them as come in range.
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Add to the fact that I'm guess much of those supplies have to come through the extreme bottleneck of the straits of hormuz - the Iranians could launch a huge surprise attack on supply ships and the aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf with all those Silkworms they've got. |
We airlifted in a mechanized brigade a few days ago - the first time anyone in the world has ever done so. We kept Berlin supplied by air over half a century ago.
IF the Iranians got squirrely, the first thing we'd do is take out their silkworms. If they persisted, we might teach them a lesson by removing all that oil infrastructure from places like Bandar Abbas, Bandar e Lengeh, Kharg Island, Bushehr, etc. Hard to sustain a war effort when you're a semi-pariah nation without an economy.
We'd also make an accomodation with the House of Saud, or it's successor and open up more transport corridors.
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Sure you kill thousands - until your supplies run out. Just like Stalingrad... |
Unlike Die Grosse Hermann, we can supply our armies by air.
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And would the US fight if tens of thousands of its best troops were taken as POWs - or would it cut its losses like Somalia? |
If it even looked close to that, which it never would, we have other options and methods that could be brought to the table. And do you think anyone, anywhere would have the balls to stop us?
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01-04-2003 03:40
). It won't go to war. (And hasn't it already helped the US somewhat by stopping an Iraqi speedboat that was going to attack a US ship like the Cole was attacked?
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